AR-Sen: While Bill Clinton stumps for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) today in Arkansas, the AFL-CIO is planning a three-day $300,000 ad-buy on behalf of her runoff opponent, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). Early voting begins on Tuesday, after the holiday weekend.
CT-Sen: Another poll, this time from Research 2000, confirms that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) has gotten past his misstatements on his service relatively unscathed. He leads Linda McMahon (R) by 19 points, 52% to 33%.
PA-Sen: Research 2000 also put out a poll in Pennsylvania which found Rep. Joe Sestak (D) leader former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 43% to 40%. This is an 8-point bump for Sestak from their previous poll from earlier this month.
Meanwhile, the White House is seeking to quell the allegations that they offered Sestak a job so he would drop out of the Senate race. They said the job was an unpaid "advisory position" offered informally by Bill Clinton. Don't expect this to be the end of the story.
CA-Gov: State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), the underdog in the GOP gubernatorial primary, is attacking frontrunner Meg Whitman (R) as weak on immigration. Whitman claimed that she wasn't playing hot-button politics, claiming "You haven't seen an ad from me with the border fence...That has been Steve's campaign." Well, it turns out she did have an ad with the border fence. Whoops.
Whitman is walking a fine line on the highly controversial illegal immigration as she tries not to dart right to the primary only to find her support among Latinos dried up. The Latino vote is essential to any statewide California official, as they make up more than 35% of the state's population.
CT-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former senate candidate Ned Lamont (D) leading Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) 41-24 in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) 37-11.
HI-Gov: Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) at long last announced his candidacy for governor today. He will take on Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) in the September 18 primary.
NY-13: The Staten Island GOP voted to nominate attorney Michael Allegretti (R) to face off against freshman Rep. Mike McMahon (D) in November. Former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who has the backing of the New York Conservative Party and is viewed as the strongest general election candidate, will still run in the primary. Meanwhile, McMahon picked up the endorsement of the Staten Island Conservative Party as he awaits the winner of a potentially damaging Republican primary.
The local GOP's first choice for the nomination was former Rep. Vito Fossella (R), who was caught driving drunk on the way to his second family's house in Virginia in the most embarrassing scandal of 2008. Fossella has not ruled out running in the furu
Friday, May 28, 2010
OH: Democrats Hold Small Leads
A new Ohio Poll finds the Democratic nominees in both the senator and governor's races to be slightly ahead of their Republican rivals.
In the governor's race, incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) leads former Rep. John Kasich (R) 49% to 44% in his re-election effort. This is a six-point improvement for Strickland from a Rasmussen poll taken three weeks ago.
In the senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) edges former Rep. Rob Portman (R) 47% to 46%. This race seems more and more like the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats in what is expected to be a year full of losses for them in the Senate.
In fact, offsetting Republican gains with a win here could help them hold on to a majority.
In the governor's race, incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) leads former Rep. John Kasich (R) 49% to 44% in his re-election effort. This is a six-point improvement for Strickland from a Rasmussen poll taken three weeks ago.
In the senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) edges former Rep. Rob Portman (R) 47% to 46%. This race seems more and more like the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats in what is expected to be a year full of losses for them in the Senate.
In fact, offsetting Republican gains with a win here could help them hold on to a majority.
NV-Sen: Razor-Thin Race
A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that all hope is not lost for Sen. Harry Reid (D), who was essentially left for dead a few months ago.
In the Republican primary, the poll finds Sue Lowden edging Sharron Angle 30% to 29%, with Danny Tarkanian picking up 23%.
In general election match-ups, Lowden leads Reid 42-39, Tarkanian leads 42-41, but Angle trails Reid 42-39.
This confirms why Reid is more bullish on the prospect of facing Angle, who is much more conservative than her primary opponents, in the general election.
Angle has been gaining momentum for the last month partly due to her Tea Party supporters, while Lowden--who would be Reid' s strongest challenger--has been losing steam due to a series of minor gaffes.
This poll is the first glimmer of hope for Reid that he could actually win re-election in a very long time.
In the Republican primary, the poll finds Sue Lowden edging Sharron Angle 30% to 29%, with Danny Tarkanian picking up 23%.
In general election match-ups, Lowden leads Reid 42-39, Tarkanian leads 42-41, but Angle trails Reid 42-39.
This confirms why Reid is more bullish on the prospect of facing Angle, who is much more conservative than her primary opponents, in the general election.
Angle has been gaining momentum for the last month partly due to her Tea Party supporters, while Lowden--who would be Reid' s strongest challenger--has been losing steam due to a series of minor gaffes.
This poll is the first glimmer of hope for Reid that he could actually win re-election in a very long time.
House Votes to Repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"
The House voted Thursday to repeal the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" law that banned gay people from serving openly in the U.S. military.
The policy was first put into place in 1993 during the Clinton administration, and has been highly controversial ever since.
The repeal passed 234-194 with 5 Republicans voting "yes: and 26 Democrats voting "no." The bill now goes to the Senate, but the earliest it can be put into practice is after the Pentagon finishes their study on the issue on December 1.
This may be a definitive (but certainly not the main) issue of the 2010 campaign, as candidate like Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) have jumped on board saying he supports the bill; especially in more socially conservative parts of the country.
The policy was first put into place in 1993 during the Clinton administration, and has been highly controversial ever since.
The repeal passed 234-194 with 5 Republicans voting "yes: and 26 Democrats voting "no." The bill now goes to the Senate, but the earliest it can be put into practice is after the Pentagon finishes their study on the issue on December 1.
This may be a definitive (but certainly not the main) issue of the 2010 campaign, as candidate like Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) have jumped on board saying he supports the bill; especially in more socially conservative parts of the country.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Two Polls Show Unexpectedly Close Races
Two surveys, one from Rasmussen and one from Research 2000, show two closer-than-expected senate races in Wisconsin and Kentucky, respectively.
In Wisconsin, it seemed as though Sen. Russ Feingold (D) would get a relatively free ride for re-election after former Gov. Tommy Thompson decided not to run. But the new Rasmussen poll shows Feingold leading wealthy businessman Ron Johnson (R) 46% to 44%.
Johnson has emerged as the likely Republican nominee after two of his competitors dropped out of the race last week when the state GOP endorsed Johnson at their convention. His only remaining primary opponent is little-known businessman Dave Westlake (R).
In Kentucky, a new Research 2000 poll shows Attorney General Jack Conway (D) within striking distance of Rand Paul. The polls finds Paul leading Conway 44% to 41%.
This result stands in stark contrast with a Rasmussen poll from last week which had Paul up by 25.
UPDATE: FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver has some serious bones to pick with the Wisconsin Rasmussen poll. It's worth a look.
In Wisconsin, it seemed as though Sen. Russ Feingold (D) would get a relatively free ride for re-election after former Gov. Tommy Thompson decided not to run. But the new Rasmussen poll shows Feingold leading wealthy businessman Ron Johnson (R) 46% to 44%.
Johnson has emerged as the likely Republican nominee after two of his competitors dropped out of the race last week when the state GOP endorsed Johnson at their convention. His only remaining primary opponent is little-known businessman Dave Westlake (R).
In Kentucky, a new Research 2000 poll shows Attorney General Jack Conway (D) within striking distance of Rand Paul. The polls finds Paul leading Conway 44% to 41%.
This result stands in stark contrast with a Rasmussen poll from last week which had Paul up by 25.
UPDATE: FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver has some serious bones to pick with the Wisconsin Rasmussen poll. It's worth a look.
Daily Rundown: 5/27/10
AR-Sen: A new Research 2000 poll of the June 8 primary run-off finds Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) leading Sen. Blanche Lincoln 47% to 44%, within the margin of error. Lincoln, after running as a centrist in the primary, is now darting to the left for the run-off claiming that she is an Obama Democrat (whatever that means). Both candidates trail GOP nominee Rep. John Boozman in the general election.
CT-Sen: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) says he's open to supporting Republican nominee Linda McMahon (R) in the general election. His support for McMahon could further infuriate the Connecticut Democratic Party, which already has a sour relationship with the former Democrat.
NV-Sen: One-time Republican front-runner Sue Lowden dodged a question on whether she thought the 1964 Civil Rights Act should apply to private businesses. This question proved be a huge embarrassment for Kentucky senate candidate Rand Paul (R) last week. Lowden later put out a statement clarifying, "I want voters to know that I strongly support all aspects of the Civil Rights Act, just as I strongly believe it applies to my private business and all others." Republicans need to be careful not to piss off too many minorities (see: Arizona immigration law), or they might just get enthusiastic about voting for Democrats in what should be a favorable year for them.
CA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) leading both Republican hopefuls in the general election. Brown leads Meg Whitman (R) 48% to 36% and Steve Poizner 48% to 32%. This can probably be attributed to the nasty tone that the GOP primary has taken, driving up the negatives of both Whitman and Poizner.
NM-Gov: Two polls show Don Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez leading the pack for the GOP nomination. A New Mexico Politics poll has her up 41-30 over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, and a Survey USA poll has her up 43-33. The polls also show that she would be the strongest general election candidate against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D).
SC-Gov: The controversy over the alleged affair between blogger Will Folks and Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley continues to dominate coverage of the the GOP primary. Folks says he does not know when the rest of the details of the alleged "inappropriate physical relationship" will surface. Haley has categorically denied the relationship, whose existence has yet to be proven. It'll be interesting to see if this affects Haley's status as the front-runner in the primary. Meanwhile, Dick Cheney just endorsed one of her rivals, Rep. Gresham Barrett.
AR-01: Chad Causey (D), who is competing in a June 8 run-off against the more conservative former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), was endorsed by two of his former rivals. Causey, the chief of staff of retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D), finished second to Woolridge in the May 18 primary, but this could be the necessary boost to put him over the top.
GA-12: House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is paying a campaign visit to Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) to talk about the merits of the landmark health care legislation passed earlier this year. The only problem is Barrow didn't vote for the bill. Is this just a massive miscommunication between the two or is Clyburn trying to weaken the conservative Barrow's chance of winning the Democratic primary against the more liberal former state Sen. Regina Thomas?
NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is losing support from the same local tea party groups that helped him with his fist-place finish in the May 4 primary. After allegations of serious past criminal activity, drug use, and declaring himself to be a prophet (among other ridiculous things), these tea party groups are throwing their support to former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) in the June 22 run-off.
CT-Sen: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) says he's open to supporting Republican nominee Linda McMahon (R) in the general election. His support for McMahon could further infuriate the Connecticut Democratic Party, which already has a sour relationship with the former Democrat.
NV-Sen: One-time Republican front-runner Sue Lowden dodged a question on whether she thought the 1964 Civil Rights Act should apply to private businesses. This question proved be a huge embarrassment for Kentucky senate candidate Rand Paul (R) last week. Lowden later put out a statement clarifying, "I want voters to know that I strongly support all aspects of the Civil Rights Act, just as I strongly believe it applies to my private business and all others." Republicans need to be careful not to piss off too many minorities (see: Arizona immigration law), or they might just get enthusiastic about voting for Democrats in what should be a favorable year for them.
CA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) leading both Republican hopefuls in the general election. Brown leads Meg Whitman (R) 48% to 36% and Steve Poizner 48% to 32%. This can probably be attributed to the nasty tone that the GOP primary has taken, driving up the negatives of both Whitman and Poizner.
NM-Gov: Two polls show Don Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez leading the pack for the GOP nomination. A New Mexico Politics poll has her up 41-30 over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, and a Survey USA poll has her up 43-33. The polls also show that she would be the strongest general election candidate against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D).
SC-Gov: The controversy over the alleged affair between blogger Will Folks and Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley continues to dominate coverage of the the GOP primary. Folks says he does not know when the rest of the details of the alleged "inappropriate physical relationship" will surface. Haley has categorically denied the relationship, whose existence has yet to be proven. It'll be interesting to see if this affects Haley's status as the front-runner in the primary. Meanwhile, Dick Cheney just endorsed one of her rivals, Rep. Gresham Barrett.
AR-01: Chad Causey (D), who is competing in a June 8 run-off against the more conservative former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), was endorsed by two of his former rivals. Causey, the chief of staff of retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D), finished second to Woolridge in the May 18 primary, but this could be the necessary boost to put him over the top.
GA-12: House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is paying a campaign visit to Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) to talk about the merits of the landmark health care legislation passed earlier this year. The only problem is Barrow didn't vote for the bill. Is this just a massive miscommunication between the two or is Clyburn trying to weaken the conservative Barrow's chance of winning the Democratic primary against the more liberal former state Sen. Regina Thomas?
NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is losing support from the same local tea party groups that helped him with his fist-place finish in the May 4 primary. After allegations of serious past criminal activity, drug use, and declaring himself to be a prophet (among other ridiculous things), these tea party groups are throwing their support to former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) in the June 22 run-off.
Blumenthal Recovers in Connecticut
One week after Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's (D) series of misstatements regarding his Vietnam service, Connecticut voters appear to have forgiven him.
A new Quinnipiac poll shows him leading Republican nominee Linda McMahon 56% to 31%--a 25-point lead. Even though Blumenthal's numbers were a bit higher before the "misstatements" ordeal, he still appears to be in a strong position to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
These numbers seem to confirm former Rep. Rob Simmons's (McMahon's previous primary competition) concerns about McMahon. Yesterday, in an interview with the National Review, Simmons claimed that she couldn't beat Blumenthal in the general election and that if she asked him to campaign for her, he would say that he is "preoccupied."
Simmons has since apologized for the statements, but looking at this poll, he seems to have been spot on. On top of that, pollster Doug Schwartz said that according the poll, "the more voters get to know McMahon the less they like her."
Looks like Republicans may have chosen the wrong horse this time around.
A new Quinnipiac poll shows him leading Republican nominee Linda McMahon 56% to 31%--a 25-point lead. Even though Blumenthal's numbers were a bit higher before the "misstatements" ordeal, he still appears to be in a strong position to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
These numbers seem to confirm former Rep. Rob Simmons's (McMahon's previous primary competition) concerns about McMahon. Yesterday, in an interview with the National Review, Simmons claimed that she couldn't beat Blumenthal in the general election and that if she asked him to campaign for her, he would say that he is "preoccupied."
Simmons has since apologized for the statements, but looking at this poll, he seems to have been spot on. On top of that, pollster Doug Schwartz said that according the poll, "the more voters get to know McMahon the less they like her."
Looks like Republicans may have chosen the wrong horse this time around.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
What's Happening in California?
All eyes are on California for the next big set of primaries, which will take place on June 8.
In the Senate Republican primary, it's a three-way race between former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R), former Rep. Tom Campbell (R), and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R).
Fiorina was initially considered to be the front-runner, as she had the ability to loan herself millions of dollars in one of the most expensive media market states in the country.
But Campbell started to take a small lead in the polls in early May. Then his money started to dry up, and Fiorina continued to flood the airwaves with negative spots against him, and the polls began to tighten up.
On May 21, a Research 2000 poll found Campbell up by 15, which had been fairly consistent with previous polls (giving Campbell a slightly bigger lead). Three days later, a Survey USA poll found Fiorina up by 23. Wait, what?
That's a huge gap between those two polls: 38 points. Conventional wisdom led everyone to believe that the Survey USA poll was the outlier. But two polls since then have confirmed Fiorina's dramatic rise in support, making Research 2000 the outlier.
And DeVore, the most conservative one in the race, has consistently been polling around 15 points throughout all the drama.
So I'm still not completely convinced that Fiorina is really suddenly up by 20, but it does appear that she has the edge over Campbell two weeks out. The winner will face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election.
Meanwhile, in the less exciting but decidedly more negative governor's race, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R)--after seeing her support dip in the same outlier Research 2000 poll--has a strong 20-point lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), who is more conservative.
Whitman has been launching self-funded attack ads against Poizner, who is strapped for cash. Polls show that either candidate will be competitive with former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election.
In the Senate Republican primary, it's a three-way race between former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R), former Rep. Tom Campbell (R), and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R).
Fiorina was initially considered to be the front-runner, as she had the ability to loan herself millions of dollars in one of the most expensive media market states in the country.
But Campbell started to take a small lead in the polls in early May. Then his money started to dry up, and Fiorina continued to flood the airwaves with negative spots against him, and the polls began to tighten up.
On May 21, a Research 2000 poll found Campbell up by 15, which had been fairly consistent with previous polls (giving Campbell a slightly bigger lead). Three days later, a Survey USA poll found Fiorina up by 23. Wait, what?
That's a huge gap between those two polls: 38 points. Conventional wisdom led everyone to believe that the Survey USA poll was the outlier. But two polls since then have confirmed Fiorina's dramatic rise in support, making Research 2000 the outlier.
And DeVore, the most conservative one in the race, has consistently been polling around 15 points throughout all the drama.
So I'm still not completely convinced that Fiorina is really suddenly up by 20, but it does appear that she has the edge over Campbell two weeks out. The winner will face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election.
Meanwhile, in the less exciting but decidedly more negative governor's race, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R)--after seeing her support dip in the same outlier Research 2000 poll--has a strong 20-point lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), who is more conservative.
Whitman has been launching self-funded attack ads against Poizner, who is strapped for cash. Polls show that either candidate will be competitive with former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election.
House Ratings: 5/26/10
This is the first of many updates on the status of the most competitive House races in the country. I'll update the ratings further if there are any new developments in any of these races.
It looks as though Republicans are poised to gain at least 26 seats as of now.
Toss-Up (24D, 2R):
AL-02 (Bright)
AR-01 (Open)
CO-04 (Markey)
FL-08 (Grayson)
FL-24 (Kosmas)
HI-01 (Djou)
ID-01 (Minnick)
IL-10 (Open)
IL-14 (Foster)
MD-01 (Kratovil)
MI-01 (Open)
MI-07 (Schauer)
MS-01 (Childers)
NV-03 (Titus)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NH-02 (Open)
NM-02 (Teague)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-01 (Driehaus)
OH-15 (Kilroy)
PA-07 (Open)
TN-08 (Open)
VA-02 (Nye)
VA-05 (Perriello)
WA-03 (Open)
WV-01 (Open)
Lean Democrat (25D, 2R):
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
DE-AL (Open)
IL-11 (Halvorson)
IN-09 (Hill)
IA-03 (Boswell)
LA-02 (Cao)
MA-10 (Open)
MO-04 (Skelton)
NJ-03 (Adler)
NM-01 (Heinrich)
NY-01 (Bishop)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-23 (Owens)
ND-AL (Pomeroy)
OH-16 (Boccieri)
OH-18 (Space)
PA-03 (Dahlkemper)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
PA-12 (Critz)
SC-05 (Spratt)
TX-17 (Edwards)
VA-09 (Boucher)
WI-07 (Open)
WI-08 (Kagen)
Likely Democrat (30D):
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
CA-47 (Sanchez)
CO-03 (Salazar)
CT-04 (Himes)
CT-05 (Murphy)
FL-02 (Boyd)
FL-22 (Klein)
GA-08 (Marshall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
KY-06 (Chandler)
MI-09 (Peters)
MN-01 (Walz)
NY-13 (McMahon)
NY-20 (Murphy)
NY-25 (Maffei)
NC-08 (Kissell)
NC-11 (Shuler)
OH-13 (Sutton)
OR-05 (Schrader)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-08 (Murphy)
PA-17 (Holden)
RI-01 (Open)
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)
TN-04 (Davis)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
VA-11 (Connolly)
WI-03 (Kind)
Lean Republican (5D, 4R):
AR-02 (Open)
CA-03 (Lungren)
FL-25 (Open)
IN-08 (Open)
KS-03 (Open)
LA-03 (Open)
NY-29 (Open)
PA-15 (Dent)
WA-08 (Reichert)
Likely Republican (1D, 9R):
AL-05 (Griffith)
AZ-03 (Open)
CA-44 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Mack)
FL-12 (Open)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NE-02 (Terry)
OH-12 (Tiberi)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
TN-06 (Open)
It looks as though Republicans are poised to gain at least 26 seats as of now.
Toss-Up (24D, 2R):
AL-02 (Bright)
AR-01 (Open)
CO-04 (Markey)
FL-08 (Grayson)
FL-24 (Kosmas)
HI-01 (Djou)
ID-01 (Minnick)
IL-10 (Open)
IL-14 (Foster)
MD-01 (Kratovil)
MI-01 (Open)
MI-07 (Schauer)
MS-01 (Childers)
NV-03 (Titus)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NH-02 (Open)
NM-02 (Teague)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-01 (Driehaus)
OH-15 (Kilroy)
PA-07 (Open)
TN-08 (Open)
VA-02 (Nye)
VA-05 (Perriello)
WA-03 (Open)
WV-01 (Open)
Lean Democrat (25D, 2R):
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
DE-AL (Open)
IL-11 (Halvorson)
IN-09 (Hill)
IA-03 (Boswell)
LA-02 (Cao)
MA-10 (Open)
MO-04 (Skelton)
NJ-03 (Adler)
NM-01 (Heinrich)
NY-01 (Bishop)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-23 (Owens)
ND-AL (Pomeroy)
OH-16 (Boccieri)
OH-18 (Space)
PA-03 (Dahlkemper)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
PA-12 (Critz)
SC-05 (Spratt)
TX-17 (Edwards)
VA-09 (Boucher)
WI-07 (Open)
WI-08 (Kagen)
Likely Democrat (30D):
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
CA-47 (Sanchez)
CO-03 (Salazar)
CT-04 (Himes)
CT-05 (Murphy)
FL-02 (Boyd)
FL-22 (Klein)
GA-08 (Marshall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
KY-06 (Chandler)
MI-09 (Peters)
MN-01 (Walz)
NY-13 (McMahon)
NY-20 (Murphy)
NY-25 (Maffei)
NC-08 (Kissell)
NC-11 (Shuler)
OH-13 (Sutton)
OR-05 (Schrader)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-08 (Murphy)
PA-17 (Holden)
RI-01 (Open)
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)
TN-04 (Davis)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
VA-11 (Connolly)
WI-03 (Kind)
Lean Republican (5D, 4R):
AR-02 (Open)
CA-03 (Lungren)
FL-25 (Open)
IN-08 (Open)
KS-03 (Open)
LA-03 (Open)
NY-29 (Open)
PA-15 (Dent)
WA-08 (Reichert)
Likely Republican (1D, 9R):
AL-05 (Griffith)
AZ-03 (Open)
CA-44 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Mack)
FL-12 (Open)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NE-02 (Terry)
OH-12 (Tiberi)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
TN-06 (Open)
WA-Sen: Rossi Launches Campaign
After waiting for an absurd amount of time, former state Sen. and two-time gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi (R) announced his candidacy for the Republican primary to take on Sen. Patty Murray (D), suddenly making this a race to watch.
Rossi has been courted by the national party to join the race for some time, as polls have shown that he would be the most competitive general election candidate on the Republican side.
The Washington Poll, which came out on Monday, had Rossi only trailing Murray by four points, 44-40. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month only had him down by 2.
Rossi still has to make it through the Republican primary, where he will take on former NFL player Clint Didier (who was endorsed by Sarah Palin), state Sen. Don Benton, and businessman Paul Akers.
But my money's on a Murray-Rossi match-up in the fall, where the latter will try to make his third attempt for statewide office a charm.
Rossi has been courted by the national party to join the race for some time, as polls have shown that he would be the most competitive general election candidate on the Republican side.
The Washington Poll, which came out on Monday, had Rossi only trailing Murray by four points, 44-40. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month only had him down by 2.
Rossi still has to make it through the Republican primary, where he will take on former NFL player Clint Didier (who was endorsed by Sarah Palin), state Sen. Don Benton, and businessman Paul Akers.
But my money's on a Murray-Rossi match-up in the fall, where the latter will try to make his third attempt for statewide office a charm.
MA-Gov: Poll Shows Patrick Ahead
A new Suffolk poll in Massachusetts finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading the three-way race for governor by 13 points.
Patrick leads with 42%, followed by Charlie Baker (R) with 29%, followed by state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) with 19%.
This is consistent with a Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, which had Patrick up by 14.
Patrick leads with 42%, followed by Charlie Baker (R) with 29%, followed by state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) with 19%.
This is consistent with a Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, which had Patrick up by 14.
ID: Favored GOP Candidate Loses Priimary
State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) overcame significant odds last night by upsetting the candidate preferred by the Republican establishment, Vaughn Ward (R), in the primary for Idaho's 1st congressional district.
Ward was the favored pick of the NRCC, Sarah Palin, and John McCain, but still managed to lose to Labrador 48% to 39%. While many may justify this defeat as another "insurgent trumps establishment" story, the real reason for Ward's loss can be attributed to his many gaffes over the last few weeks.
Labrador is in a much better position to unseat Rep. Walt Minnick (D) than Ward would have been in the general election.
Ward was the favored pick of the NRCC, Sarah Palin, and John McCain, but still managed to lose to Labrador 48% to 39%. While many may justify this defeat as another "insurgent trumps establishment" story, the real reason for Ward's loss can be attributed to his many gaffes over the last few weeks.
Labrador is in a much better position to unseat Rep. Walt Minnick (D) than Ward would have been in the general election.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
CT-Sen: Simmons Bows Out
Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), once viewed as the leading candidate to take down Sen. Chris Dodd (D), announced today that he will be ending his Senate campaign.
The Connecticut GOP endorsed former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) at their convention last weekend. Simmons originally said that he would back out of the race if he wasn't selected at the convention.
McMahon has wide name recognition in the state, can largely self-fund her own campaign, and is considered to be a Washington outsider, which is the new hot thing this year.
This assures that Democratic nominee Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), who has been in the midst of a controversy for exaggerating his military service, will face off against McMahon in the general election in what is sure to a be a closer-than-anticipated election.
The Connecticut GOP endorsed former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) at their convention last weekend. Simmons originally said that he would back out of the race if he wasn't selected at the convention.
McMahon has wide name recognition in the state, can largely self-fund her own campaign, and is considered to be a Washington outsider, which is the new hot thing this year.
This assures that Democratic nominee Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), who has been in the midst of a controversy for exaggerating his military service, will face off against McMahon in the general election in what is sure to a be a closer-than-anticipated election.
Primary in Idaho Today
When you think of politically competitive states, Idaho usually doesn't come to mind. But today Idahoans are taking part in a very unusual House race in the state's 1st district.
Rep. Walt Minnick (D)--that's right, a Democrat in Idaho--was elected in 2008 over then-Rep. Bill Sali (R), who was constantly shrouded in gaffes, misstatements, and controversies. Since being elected, Minnick has been one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, even to the point of getting endorsed by the Tea Party Express! But local Idaho Tea Party members have largely ignored this shocking endorsement, and have split between the two leading Republicans vying for the nomination.
Vaughn Ward (R), an Iraq War veteran and former McCain campaign official, looked to be the early frontrunner for the nomination. He was added to the National Republican Campaign Committee's (NRCC) "Young Guns" program and was endorsed both by John McCain and Sarah Palin. But Ward proved be far less adept a candidate than expected. First, he argued that the 17th amendment--which gives voters the right to elect their own senators--should be repealed. Then, he was caught plagiarizing Barack Obama's 2004 speech to the Democratic National Convention. He also claimed in a debate that Puerto Rico was a country, and when corrected said that he "didn't care what it is."
These gaffes have caused many Idaho Republicans--and every major Idaho newspaper--to jump ship and support state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), who, coincidentally, is Puerto Rican. Labrador, who is running as an outsider, seems to have all of the momentum going into the primary. But at the same time, he has been at a huge financial disadvantage.
A new Mason-Dixon poll showed Ward up 31% to 28% over Labrador, which is a 15-point bump for Labrador from last poll, and there is still a ton of undecideds. But then again, House district polling is notoriously bad.
Perhaps Sarah Palin's recent visit will be just enough for Vaughn to hold off Labrador, but he may find that his recent gaffes were responsible for flipping those undecideds over to Labrador. Given these recent mistakes, Labrador seems like the better general election candidate.
But regardless of who wins tonight, the November election is sure to be an unusual one, with candidates on both sides of the aisle receiving support from the Tea Party.
Rep. Walt Minnick (D)--that's right, a Democrat in Idaho--was elected in 2008 over then-Rep. Bill Sali (R), who was constantly shrouded in gaffes, misstatements, and controversies. Since being elected, Minnick has been one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, even to the point of getting endorsed by the Tea Party Express! But local Idaho Tea Party members have largely ignored this shocking endorsement, and have split between the two leading Republicans vying for the nomination.
Vaughn Ward (R), an Iraq War veteran and former McCain campaign official, looked to be the early frontrunner for the nomination. He was added to the National Republican Campaign Committee's (NRCC) "Young Guns" program and was endorsed both by John McCain and Sarah Palin. But Ward proved be far less adept a candidate than expected. First, he argued that the 17th amendment--which gives voters the right to elect their own senators--should be repealed. Then, he was caught plagiarizing Barack Obama's 2004 speech to the Democratic National Convention. He also claimed in a debate that Puerto Rico was a country, and when corrected said that he "didn't care what it is."
These gaffes have caused many Idaho Republicans--and every major Idaho newspaper--to jump ship and support state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), who, coincidentally, is Puerto Rican. Labrador, who is running as an outsider, seems to have all of the momentum going into the primary. But at the same time, he has been at a huge financial disadvantage.
A new Mason-Dixon poll showed Ward up 31% to 28% over Labrador, which is a 15-point bump for Labrador from last poll, and there is still a ton of undecideds. But then again, House district polling is notoriously bad.
Perhaps Sarah Palin's recent visit will be just enough for Vaughn to hold off Labrador, but he may find that his recent gaffes were responsible for flipping those undecideds over to Labrador. Given these recent mistakes, Labrador seems like the better general election candidate.
But regardless of who wins tonight, the November election is sure to be an unusual one, with candidates on both sides of the aisle receiving support from the Tea Party.
In Case You Missed It...
Since primary season started almost four months ago, I thought I'd catch everyone up on some of the highlights of what has happened so far.
Illinois (February 2): Illinois kicked off the primary season with a closely contested Senate Democratic primary, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging out former Inspector General David Hoffman (D), despite ethical charges about Giannoulias's time in office. He will face off against Rep. Mark Kirk (R), a moderate, in the fall. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also squeaked out a primary win and will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the general election.
Texas (March 2): Two-term Gov. Rick Perry (R) handily defeated sitting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in the Republican primary, avoiding a run-off election. Polls have shown him with low double-digit leads over the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).
Indiana (May 4): With the unexpected retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the winter, Democrats selected Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as their nominee to replace him. Former Sen. Dan Coats (R), despite a checkered past, emerged as the Republican nominee. Early polls show Coats ahead by a comfortable margin.
North Carolina (May 4): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) are headed to a run-off election on June 22, given that neither of them reached the 40% threshold would have guaranteed them the nomination. Third place finisher Kenneth Lewis endorsed Marshall. The winner will face the unpopular Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November.
Ohio (May 4): In the Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general. No surprises in the governor's race, as sitting Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will take on former Rep. John Kasich (R), which is sure to be one of the most negative and nasty races of the cycle.
West Virginia (May 11): In a clear demonstration of the anti-incumbent mood that will surely carry on through November, sitting Rep. Allan Mollohan (D) was ousted by the much more conservative state Sen. Mike Oliviero (D). Oliverio will face former state Rep. David McKinley (R) in the fall. Expect a lot more sitting congressman to be facing significant challenges in their own party's primaries.
Arkansas (May 18): Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was forced into a run-off (June 8) by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who has been running to Lincoln's left. In response, Lincoln has been touting herself as an Obama-Democrat ever since. Bill Clinton's coming down to stump for her, but Halter has the backing of the SEIU and other unions, and his supporters seem more likely to show up to the polls. The winner will be the underdog against Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.
Kentucky (May 18): This race, more than any other so far, had the national media all up in a tizzy last week. Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated establishment candidate Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) in a landslide. The national media took this as a huge surprise and made it a story about "insurgent beats establishment," but if they looked at the polls and the grassroots efforts on the ground, they would have seen it coming, as Paul ran a great campaign (with the help of the Tea Party). However, since winning the nomination, Paul has made several quick gaffes, including saying that he wouldn't have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act and that President Obama was being "unpatriotic" for criticizing BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He will take on Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--who won a close primary--in the general.
Pennsylvania (May 18): Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party in 2009 for fear of losing the GOP's nomination, lost the Democratic party's nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak (D). There have been allegations that the Obama administration--who was more than grateful for Specter's party switch--had previously offered Sestak the job of Navy Secretary if he backed down from the primary, which would be a federal crime. Sestak has stayed mum on the matter, and is looking forward to November, where he will face conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, the former head of the Club for Growth. In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is heavily favored against Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D).
Hawaii (May 22): When's the last time you heard of a competitive race in the Rainbow State? Well, the stubbornness of the two Democrats running in the special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) House seat made it possible. Neither former Rep. Ed Case (D) nor state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) backed down from the race, splitting the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win the seat. Both Case and Hanabusa are running in the September 18 primary, and it's clear there's still bad blood between them.
Illinois (February 2): Illinois kicked off the primary season with a closely contested Senate Democratic primary, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging out former Inspector General David Hoffman (D), despite ethical charges about Giannoulias's time in office. He will face off against Rep. Mark Kirk (R), a moderate, in the fall. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also squeaked out a primary win and will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the general election.
Texas (March 2): Two-term Gov. Rick Perry (R) handily defeated sitting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in the Republican primary, avoiding a run-off election. Polls have shown him with low double-digit leads over the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).
Indiana (May 4): With the unexpected retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the winter, Democrats selected Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as their nominee to replace him. Former Sen. Dan Coats (R), despite a checkered past, emerged as the Republican nominee. Early polls show Coats ahead by a comfortable margin.
North Carolina (May 4): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) are headed to a run-off election on June 22, given that neither of them reached the 40% threshold would have guaranteed them the nomination. Third place finisher Kenneth Lewis endorsed Marshall. The winner will face the unpopular Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November.
Ohio (May 4): In the Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general. No surprises in the governor's race, as sitting Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will take on former Rep. John Kasich (R), which is sure to be one of the most negative and nasty races of the cycle.
West Virginia (May 11): In a clear demonstration of the anti-incumbent mood that will surely carry on through November, sitting Rep. Allan Mollohan (D) was ousted by the much more conservative state Sen. Mike Oliviero (D). Oliverio will face former state Rep. David McKinley (R) in the fall. Expect a lot more sitting congressman to be facing significant challenges in their own party's primaries.
Arkansas (May 18): Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was forced into a run-off (June 8) by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who has been running to Lincoln's left. In response, Lincoln has been touting herself as an Obama-Democrat ever since. Bill Clinton's coming down to stump for her, but Halter has the backing of the SEIU and other unions, and his supporters seem more likely to show up to the polls. The winner will be the underdog against Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.
Kentucky (May 18): This race, more than any other so far, had the national media all up in a tizzy last week. Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated establishment candidate Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) in a landslide. The national media took this as a huge surprise and made it a story about "insurgent beats establishment," but if they looked at the polls and the grassroots efforts on the ground, they would have seen it coming, as Paul ran a great campaign (with the help of the Tea Party). However, since winning the nomination, Paul has made several quick gaffes, including saying that he wouldn't have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act and that President Obama was being "unpatriotic" for criticizing BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He will take on Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--who won a close primary--in the general.
Pennsylvania (May 18): Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party in 2009 for fear of losing the GOP's nomination, lost the Democratic party's nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak (D). There have been allegations that the Obama administration--who was more than grateful for Specter's party switch--had previously offered Sestak the job of Navy Secretary if he backed down from the primary, which would be a federal crime. Sestak has stayed mum on the matter, and is looking forward to November, where he will face conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, the former head of the Club for Growth. In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is heavily favored against Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D).
Hawaii (May 22): When's the last time you heard of a competitive race in the Rainbow State? Well, the stubbornness of the two Democrats running in the special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) House seat made it possible. Neither former Rep. Ed Case (D) nor state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) backed down from the race, splitting the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win the seat. Both Case and Hanabusa are running in the September 18 primary, and it's clear there's still bad blood between them.
Welcome!
Hello, my name is Adam Carlson. I'm a student at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. I've always had a keen interest in U.S. electoral politics, and thought I'd share my ideas on upcoming elections with anyone who will listen.
This blog will be a (hopefully) daily digest of news and analysis on the upcoming 2010 House, Senate, and gubernatorial races across the country.
You won't be seeing any national trend lines or generic congressional polls on this blog because those don't really matter--I will be looking at each race individually, but putting each one in the context of the national mood. I will do my best to keep this unbiased, but no promises.
Anyway, there are 161 days until election day, so let's get started!
This blog will be a (hopefully) daily digest of news and analysis on the upcoming 2010 House, Senate, and gubernatorial races across the country.
You won't be seeing any national trend lines or generic congressional polls on this blog because those don't really matter--I will be looking at each race individually, but putting each one in the context of the national mood. I will do my best to keep this unbiased, but no promises.
Anyway, there are 161 days until election day, so let's get started!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)