Friday, July 30, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/30/10

FL-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) narrowly leading Marco Rubio (R) and blowing out both Democratic candidates. When Jeff Green (D) is the Democratic nominee, Crist leads 37-32-17. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the nomination then Crist leads 39-33-13. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) ahead by just one point over challenger Sharron Angle (R), 43% to 42%. Mason-Dixon's poll from two weeks ago had Reid up by seven points, but this new result seems more plausible. Still, that Reid is even leading at all continues to stun me, seeing as he was left for dead just two months ago. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Most other public polls have found a much closer race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Rasmussen also put a poll out in Washington state, and found Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by two points, 49% to 47%. Two weeks ago, they found Rossi (R) to be ahead by three points. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

FL-Gov: That same Quinnipiac poll tested the Florida governor's race and found very close races--regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. If Rick Scott (R) is the GOP nominee, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 29-27-14. If state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) wins the GOP's nod, he leads Sink and Chiles 27-26-14. Also: President Obama will hold a fundraiser for Sink on August 18.

MI-Gov: The second half of the EPIC-MRA poll came out today, this time testing the waters for the gubernatorial GOP nomination. They found moderate former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R) narrowly leading the pack with 26%, followed by state Attorney General Mike Cox (R) with 24% and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with 23%. Different polls show each one of these three in the lead, but the consensus is that this race will be extremely close. The primary is this Tuesday.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid by 10 points, 50% to 40%--down from a 21-point lead from earlier this month. This change is pretty inexplicable, with the only major development being that Sandoval said he wouldn't be worried about his children getting racially profiled in Arizona because they "don't look Hispanic." But that gaffe hardly explains an 11-point drop off over a two-week period. Current rating: Likely Republican.

WI-Gov: With Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) as the GOP nominee, Rasmussen finds that he leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) by seven points, 50% to 43%. If former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) wins the Republican nomination, he trails Barrett by one point.

LA-02: The DCCC has announced that it will officially support state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) in the Democratic primary to take on endangered freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R). The DCCC is placing Richmond, who came in third place in the 2008 Democratic primary, in its "Red to Blue" program--giving him a fundraising and infrastructure boost going into the August 28 primary. He still faces state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), businessman Gary Johnson (D), and Eugene Green (D)--a top aid to former Rep. Bill Jefferson (D), whose scandals allowed Cao to steal this dark blue seat in 2008.

NH-01: That UNH/Granite State poll that came out yesterday also tested both of the state's House contests. In the 1st district, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) leads former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) 44% to 39%, bests former RNC committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) 45% to 36%, and beats businessman Rick Ashooh (R) 43% to 35%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-02: In the open seated second district, things look a bit bleaker for the Democrats. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) leads Katrina Swett (D) 47% to 30% and tops Ann McLane Kuster (D) 47% to 29%. Conservative talk show host and 2008 GOP nominee Jennifer Horn (R) leads Swett 35% to 31% and edges Kuster 34% to 32%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OK-05: State Rep. Mike Thompson (R), who finished third in Tuesday's primary, is endorsing Christian youth camp director James Lankford (R) in the August 24 GOP runoff. In doing so, he's passing over former state Rep. Kevin Calvey (R), who surprisingly finished behind Lankford in the Republican primary despite support from groups like the Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, and Concerned Women for America.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.
In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov
: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/28/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) came out and officially said it at a debate last night: "I am running for the United State Senate." This comes after weeks of playing coy and calling his campaign ads "public service announcements"--a reminder that his name was still on the ballot. Simmons suspended his campaign after the state GOP endorsed Linda McMahon (R). Both Simmons and investor Peter Schiff (R) remain huge underdogs with less than two weeks before the primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

IL-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by two points, 43% to 41%--within the poll's margin of error. This is virtually unchanged from the results of a poll they released of this race earlier this month. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: Rasmussen is also out with a new poll in this closely watched (and over-dramatized) race. They find Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) leading Sharron Angle (R) by two points, 45% to 43%. Rasmussen's previous poll of the race, from June, found Angle up by three points. It seems like Reid' barrage of negative campaign ads to define Angle as too outside the mainstream may have worked to drive up Angle's negatives to levels comparable to his. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with part two of their poll, this time with Republican primary numbers. It seems that while Sarah Palin's endorsement hurt Kelly Ayotte (R) among moderates--which could be a problem for her in the general election--it hasn't had any negative effect on Republican voters. Ayotte has the support of 47% of likely GOP voters while her closest competitor, Bill Binnie (R), is way behind with 14%. Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Jim Bender (R) are stuck in single digits. Current rating: Lean Republican.

CA-Gov
: A new PPP poll finds Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 46% to 40%. This must come as good news to the Brown campaign, as the last two public polls of the race have shown Whitman, albeit with small single digit margins. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Gov: PPP also put a GOP gubernatorial primary poll into the field, and found former Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen (R) leading the pack with 26%. Businessman Jack Kimball (R) trails with 15% and Karen Testerman (R) collects only 5%. But there's still a whole lot of undecided voters, as this race has taken a backseat to the more competitive and interesting Senate Republican primary.

OK-Gov: As expected, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) easily disposed of state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) in yesterday's GOP gubernatorial primary, 55% to 39%, and avoided a runoff. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) edged out state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) by less than one percentage point. The Sooner poll released this weekend wasn't even close. Now, regardless of who wins in the general election, Oklahoma will have its first female governor.

TN-Gov: Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R), who's been lagging in the polls, is under fire for calling Islam a "cult" instead of a religion. He said he's "all about freedom of religion" but added "but you cross the line when they start trying to bring Sharia law into the United States." Yikes.

OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren (D) easily fought off a health care-themed primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Wilson (D), crushing him 76% to 24%.

OK-05: The Republican primary to replace Rep. Mary Fallin (R) in Congress is headed to a runoff, as expected, featuring Christian camp director James Lankford (R) and former state Rep. Ken Calvey (R). This is basically the general election, as the winner of this runoff will go on cruise in November in this dark red district.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

DE-Sen: Tea Party Express Backs O'Donnell

I, like much of the political punditry, have assumed that Rep. Mike Castle (R) would be the Republican Senate nominee in Delaware for some time now. His moderate background and extensive history as a state-level elected official would make him a strong favorite over likely Democratic nominee Chris Coons (D).

However, his only somewhat serious primary competitor, 2008 Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R), has started to make some noise the last couple of weeks.

First, she was endorsed by the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List (the bizarro EMILY's List). And now she's being endorsed by the Tea Party Express, who have helped catapult conservative firebrands like Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, and Mike Lee to victories in GOP primaries across the country.

The group takes issue with Castle's moderate views (i.e., being pro-choice, his support for TARP, cap-and-trade, and Wall Street reform)--exactly the views that make him such an appealing general candidate in such a blue state like Delaware. But the Tea Party Express doesn't really seem to care about that, seeming to favor principle over pragmatism yet again.

Said a Tea Party Express spokesperson: "We long ago announced our intention to hold Mike Castle accountable for his failed record in Congress, and now we have an excellent shot to make sure he is defeated by a solid conservative candidate."

Politico also reports that Concerned Women for America PAC will endorse O'Donnell in the coming weeks.

Now, I don't buy into the hype that just because these groups support her that she suddenly has all this momentum. The conservative grassroots movement in Delaware looks to me to be significantly smaller than in states like Kentucky, Nevada, and Utah.

I think the real reason that the Tea Party Express (and other such groups) are getting involved in a non-race like this is that they are just looking for ways to stay viable as the number of competitive GOP primary elections wanes as we move closer to November. And this was just another chance for them to start some drama and get some headlines.

I'd say--at the most--this may give O'Donnell an opening to get her name out there, but I still don't think she stands a chance against Castle six weeks out from the primary. I bet Chris Coons (D) really hopes I'm wrong, as he would probably trounce O'Donnell in the general election.

Daily Rundown: 7/27/10

CA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%. According to the poll, independents have dashed away from Fiorina back toward Boxer, which essentially what puts Boxer in the lead. Most other public polls have found a much closer race, and some have even given Fiorina the lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates with small leads over both Democrats. Ken Buck (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D) by six points. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads Bennet by nine, and bests Romanoff by four. Meanwhile, Romanoff is selling his house and loaning his campaign $325,000 to go "all-in" in his insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. Courageous move or act of desperation? I'm betting on the latter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with a new poll that finds that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte (R) may have backfired. She has her smallest lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to date, besting him by just three points, 45% to 42%. While shoring up her Republican base, she seems to have lost moderates in the process--seemingly in part because of Palin' endorsement. In April, Hodes led Ayotte by just 8 points among moderates, and now he's up by 21 points--and her favorability among that group has plummeted. Meanwhile, self-funding businessman Bill Binnie (R) leads Hodes by six points, Hodes leads Jim Bender (R) by one point and Ovide Lamontagne (R) by 5. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by seven points, 44% to 37%, with 15% undecided. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you release an internal poll showing you losing to a virtual unknown candidate. State Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) released an internal poll showing him trailing Rick Scott (R) by six points, 37% to 31%. Most public polling shows Scott with a much larger lead.

MD-Gov: A new Gonzales Research poll finds sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%--within the poll's margin of error. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (R) by three points, 47% to 44%--virtually unchanged from their June poll of the race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NM-01
: A new Survey USA poll finds businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) by six points, 51% to 45%. But there's a red flag here, as it seems pretty unlikely that only 4% of voters are undecided this far out from the election. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/26/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) comfortably ahead of former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP Senate primary, 54% to 34%. Their poll from June only gave McCain an 11-point lead, showing McCain's negative ad blitz (and $16 million total expenditure) has seemed to work.

CO-Sen: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), long considered to be the Tea Party favorite in the race, is apologizing for some disparaging marks he made about the Tea Party movement. Here's the original quote from Buck: "Will you tell those dumbasses at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera? God, what am I supposed to do?" It probably won't be anything big, just an unforced error for the new GOP frontrunner. In other news, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed Jane Norton (R) over Buck in the GOP primary, giving her some anti-illegal immigration bona fides going forward. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six points, 48% to 42%. Rasmussen has been the only other pollster to test this race, and they have consistently found small leads for Blunt (usually within the margin of error). While Blunt appears to have the slight edge right now, we still rate this as a Toss-Up.

CO-Gov:
The Denver Post is reporting that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) is following through on last week's threat to launch a third party bid after neither flawed GOP candidate got out of the race. Conventional wisdom is that the fiercely conservative and anti-illegal immigration Tancredo will split votes with the eventual Republican nominee in the general election and give Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) a clear path to victory. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

GA-Gov: The National Rifle Association is backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. That might help him to slowly close Karen Handel's (R) 11-point lead from the primary.

OK-Gov: A new Sooner poll finds Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) leading Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) by 16 points in the Democratic primary, 49% to 33%. In June, they found a tied race. The primary is on Tuesday. In general election match-ups, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) leads Edmondson by 8 points and Askins by 6 points--but is still under the 50% mark, meaning she is still very beatable.

TN-Gov: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds that Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is still the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. He leads Rep. Zach Wamp (R) 36% to 25%, with Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R) in third at 20%. In an attempt to shake up the race, Wamp has brought up the idea that Tennessee "may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates." The secession talk, of course, was initiated by Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) last year--and that strategy worked for him in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Haslam leads businessman Mike McWherter (D) by 18 points, Wamp bests him by 7 points, and Ramsey edges him by 5.

NY-13: Sen. John McCain (R) is endorsing former FBI agent Michael Grimm (R) in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Mike McMahon (D). Grimm is considered to be the stronger general election candidate and has the backing of the Conservative Party, but attorney Michael Allegretti (R) has the support of the Staten Island GOP. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) trailing state Rep. Rick Berg (R) by only three points, 46% to 49%. Their poll from last month found Berg up by 7 points, and even more before that. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/23/10

AR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 25 points, 60% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

DE-Sen: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will hold a fundraiser for Rep. Mike Castle (R) on August 17. Bloomberg has supported a wide array of candidates across the country--from both parties--including Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Current rating:
Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will endorse Marco Rubio (R) this weekend in a high-profile boost for the Republican's campaign, which has gotten a bit sleep as of late. This must come as a blow to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign, which has been aggressively courting the business community's support throughout the campaign. There's one little hitch though: Rubio, a Cuban American, opposes the Chamber of Commerce's push to get rid of the Cuba embargo. Current rating: Toss-Up.

IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune may have discovered yet another embarrassing embellishment from Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) past. Since he began running for public office over a decade ago, Kirk often told the story of how he was rescued by the Coast Guard when he nearly drowned at age 16. But the Tribune has found that "there are inconsistencies in Kirk's statements that suggests part of his real-life drama have been embellished." This must be terrible news for the Kirk campaign, which had just seemed to get the media and public's attention turned away from his past. In other news, Kirk released a statement this morning that he supports the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagen. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen
: A new Braun Research poll finds Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 3 points, 41% to 38%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

LA-Sen: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trailing Sen. David Vitter (R) by just one point, 44% to 43%. This result seems very optimistic, as most recent public polling shows Vitter with a 10-20 point lead. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-Sen: It looks like internal polling season is in full swing. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is out with one showing her leading Sen. Richard Burr (R) by two points, 37% to 35%. Our public polling average has Burr up by 10 points over Marshall. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Joe Manchin (D) crushing businessman John Raese (R) in a hypothetical general election match-up, 51% to 36%. While Raese is the most high-profile Republican to enter the race thus far, he will not have the field to himself. Nine other Republicans have already filed to run in the GOP primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) leading state Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) by 19 points, 56% to 37%. Also, Goddard called Brewer a "one-trick pony" today, saying that her only issue is illegal immigration. "The entire [platform] that she has run on is signing SB 1070," said Goddard. "When you ask what else has Governor Brewer done for you, I don't think there is an answer." Current rating: Likely Republican.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/22/10

AK-Sen: A new Ivan Moore Research poll of the Alaska GOP Senate primary finds Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) crushing challenger Joe Miller (R) 62% to 30%. Miller, of course, was endorsed by Sarah Palin last month and also has the backing of the Tea Party Express--but he hasn't shown the kind of fundraising or organizational prowess that he would need to take down an entrenched incumbent like Murkowski.

FL-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) leading billionaire Jeff Greene (D) by just 3 points in the Senate Democratic primary, 28% to 25%--but 37% of the Democratic electorate remains undecided. Rasmussen is out with some new general election numbers as well. When Meek is the Democrat in the race, Marco Rubio (R) leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I) 35% to 33%, with Meek back at 20%. With Greene in the race, Crist leads Rubio 36% to 34% and Greene takes 19%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Mining owner company John Raese (R) announced that he'll be running for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) Senate seat this November. Raese, who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate against Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) in 1984 and again against Byrd in 2006, seemed to be the West Virginia GOP's next pick after Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) decided to sit this one out--probably because he can self-fund a large part of his campaign. State Sen. Clark Barnes (R) is also expected to get in the race and former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) announced she won't run.

AR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Mike Beebe (D) leading former state Sen. Jim Keet (R) by only 10 points, 50% to 40%. Their June poll of the race showed Beebe up by 24 points, and other public polling has shown mixed results. Beebe was thought be one of the few safe Democratic incumbents this cycle, given his sky-high approval ratings (even in this economy). We'll see if Keet has what it takes to give him a run for his money.

CO-Gov: Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) issued an ultimatum to the two current Republican gubernatorial candidates: get out of the race by Monday at noon or there'll be trouble. More specifically, he said he'll run for governor on the American Constitution Party line. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R)--the GOP frontrunner until it came to light that he had plagiarized several speeches weeks ago--has refused to drop out of the race. The same goes for businessman Dan Maes (R), who has been a weak candidate thus far and is viewed by both sides as unelectable in the general election.

Said Tancredo: "This is a disaster in the making ere. We have this opportunity and we're blowing it. The two candidates we have now are unelectable. One is essentially a fraud and another is experiencing all types of ethical problems. It's just ridiculous. This is unacceptable." He also added that if McInnis or Maes lead Hickenlooper in public polling the day after the primary (August 11), then he would drop out.
Democrats have to hope that Tancredo follows through on his threat, as he would split Republican votes with either McInnis or Maes and allow Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) to cruise to victory in the general election.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Rick Scott (R) leading state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by 14 points in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary, 43% to 29%. The Election Frontier polling average has the self-funding Scott up by 10.7 points.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen is the first pollster after the primary to test general election match-ups in the Georgia gubernatorial race. Former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) bests former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) by 6 points, 49% to 43%. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) edges Barnes by only one point, 45% to 44%.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) crushing former Rep. Rick Lazio (R), 58% to 27%.

VA-09
: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Rick Boucher (D) leading state House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R) by 13 points, 52% to 39%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/21/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who suspended his campaign after losing the state GOP endorsement to Linda McMahon (R) in May, is jumping back into the Republican Senate primary with less than a month to go until voters go to the polls. He is starting to air ads again, urging voters to "look at the issues." It's not clear how well McMahon consolidated GOP support when she only had to face economist and Tea Party favorite Peter Schiff (R) in the primary. Since McMahon stopped short of imploding during that time, I'd give her the advantage in this race--but I'd still like to see some polling.

KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 49% to 41%--virtually unchanged from their June poll. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) announced this morning that she will not run in this November's special election against Gov. Joe Manchin (D). She cited concerns and risks about running for her House seat and the Senate seat simultaneously. Now the West Virginia GOP seems to be without a credible candidate. The name being mentioned the most in mining company owner John Raese (R)--who ran for Senate in 1984 and 2006 and has the ability to self-fund his candidacy. With this development, we are moving the race into the Likely Democrat category.

Meanwhile, it looks like Manchin won't have the Democratic primary field to himself: 95-year-old former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) announced his bid earlier today. Hechler, who represents the more progressive wing of the state Democratic party, will be running to Manchin's left.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll shows state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading both Republicans--state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Rick Scott (R)--and Bud Chiles (I) for the first time. When paired up against McCollum and Chiles, she leads 37-23-14. Against Scott and Chiles, she leads 36-30-13. A key finding from the poll: "Scott and McCollum both have very poor favorability numbers. Their primary battle has completely turned off Democrats and Independents, and Republicans aren't seeing them very positively either." The question is: does this negativity give Sink enough room to eke out an unlikely win?

GA-Gov: Like I said earlier today, a 2012 proxy fight seems to being brewing in the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff, with Sarah Palin supporting former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Newt Gingrich backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R). Now, it looks like another 2012 doesn't want to be left out of the fun: Mitt Romney endorsed Handel today. Meanwhile, Georgia Right to Life is backing Deal, on account of Handel's support for abortion in cases of rape and incest.

MN-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three Democrats with small leads over state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I). Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads 40-36-10, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) leads 40-35-11, and former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) leads 37-36-12.

NV-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) with a big lead over Rory Reid (D), 52% to 38%. This result is pretty much in line with most other polls we've seen of this race. Current rating: Likely Republican.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their last poll of the race, from June, showed Kasich with a 7-point lead. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NY-01: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) endorsed Chris Cox (R), the son of the state GOP party chair and the grandson of Richard Nixon. Cox is running against self-funding businessman Randy Altschuler (R) and former SEC attorney George Demos (R) in the Republican primary.

VA-05
: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Tom Perriello (D) trailing state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) by a huge 23-point margin, 58% to 35%. Swing State Project, while being a partisan website, does point out some flaws with the polling sample that may have led to increased support for Hurt. The only other poll of this race was a PPP survey from February, which showed a tie race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

GA: Barnes Clinches Nod, Handel & Deal Are Runoff Bound

Former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) cruised to victory in yesterday's six-way Democratic primary, earning 66% of the vote--much more than th 50%+1 needed to avoid a runoff. His closest competitor was Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D), who carried 22% of the vote.

On the Republican side, things are a bit more complicated. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) finished first last night with 34%--but didn't garner enough support to clinch the nomination. She will face former Rep. Nathan Deal (R)--who had 23%--in an August 10 runoff.

State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R), who was the GOP frontrunner for months, finished a distant fourth yesterday with 17%. It seems that his campaign's message was silenced by the high profile endorsements than Handel and Deal received, from Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, respectively (do I smell a 2012 hopeful proxy fight?).

In the 4th district, Rep. Hank Johnson (D) fended off a primary challenge from Vernon Jones (D) and Connie Stokes (D).

In the GOP primary for the open 7th district (being vacated by Republican John Linder), Rob Woodall (R)--Linder's former chief of staff--and right wing talk show host Jody Hice (R) qualified for a runoff. The highly touted state Rep. Clay Cox (R) fell short, finishing in a disappointed third place.

In the 8th district, state Rep. Austin Scott (R) narrowly avoided a runoff against two lesser-known rivals with 52% of the vote. Scott, who has proven to be a strong candidate, will now face Rep. Jim Marshall (D) in the general election.

And finally in the 12th, Rep. John Barrow (D) fought back a health care themed primary challenge from state Sen. Regina Thomas (D) 58% to 42%. On the Republican side, Tea Party favorite Ray McKinney (R) and Thunderbolt township fire chief Carl Smith (R) will face off each other in an August 10 runoff.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/16/10

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 17 points, 54% to 37%. And if former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) jumps back into the race like he has been hinting he will do, he still faces an uphill climb. McMahon leads him 52% to 25% in the GOP primary, with Peter Schiff (R)--who has started to gain support among local Tea Party activists--at 13%. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

DE-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Mike Castle (R) with a comfortable 11-point lead over Chris Coons (D), 47% to 36%. Their poll from late April had Castle up by 23 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) raised a record-setting $4.4 million last quarter, but that haul doesn't seem so might now that it came to light that his campaign spent $4 million over the same period. What makes matters worse is that he doesn't have a lot to show for it, seeing as Gov. Charlie Crist (I) is beating him in most public polling and now is sitting on more cash on hand. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds some great news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). He leads Sharron Angle (R) by seven points, 44% to 37%, a four-point up-tick for Reid from their last poll in May. It seems that his campaign's strategy of making this race about Angle since she won the GOP primary has been working so far. But there's some good news for Angle today: she outraised Reid $2.6 million to $2.4 million in the second quarter (even though Reid has much more in cash on hand). Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Dino Rossi (R) leading Sen. Patty Murray (D) for the first time since he entered the race. Their poll from last month found the race tied, whereas most other polls have shown Murray with a small lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) appointed his former chief counsel, Carte Goodwin (D), to be a seatwarmer until Manchin runs for the seat himself in November. Goodwin will be appointed on Tuesday and an official campaign announcement from Manchin should come soon after that. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new poll from the University of Wisconsin finds Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading businessman Ron Johnson (R) 33% to 28%, but about 40% of voters are still undecided, meaning this race is up for grabs at this point. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leading both potential Republican candidates within the margin of error. He leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) 45% to 43% and businessman Dan Maes (R) 46% to 43%. But the poll was taken before the full aftermath of McInnis multiple counts of plagiarism became public. A newer Survey USA poll (post-plagiarism) finds that 64% of state Republicans prefer someone other than McInnis as their gubernatorial nominee. Current rating: Toss-Up.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen tested the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Georgia and found former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 59% to 16%. Most polls have found that Barnes has enough support to avoid a runoff, while the Republicans are certain to duke it out in a runoff for a few more weeks.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Don Onorato (D) by 10 points, 48% to 38%--virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/15/10

AZ-Sen: A new poll from Behavior Research Center finds Sen. John McCain (R) widening his lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). McCain leads Hayworth by a 45-point spread, 64% to 19%, according to the poll. While other public polling shows McCain making gains, this one seems to be a little stronger than the others. Our polling average has McCain up by 26.3 points.

CT-Sen: When Linda McMahon (R) accused former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) of running a sleeper campaign after he suspended his campaign earlier this year, I pretty much laughed it off. But it appears she may have been on to something, as Simmons told the Hartford Courant that he's "thinking about" getting back in the race. "I haven't made any final decisions," said Simmons. "I'm on the ballot. I've never said I'd get off the ballot." Simmons would have a tough fight against self-funding McMahon in the GOP primary, but if he won the primary, he would give the GOP an honest shot at the seat--while still being the underdog against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D). Current rating: Likely Democrat.

NV-Sen: According to Las Vegas-Sun journalist Jon Ralston, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) raised $2.4 million in the second quarter, and still has a whopping $8.9 million in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. A PPP poll from 2 weeks ago found Feingold up by 2. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Meg Whitman (R) leading Jerry Brown (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. Their poll from last month had Brown up by 1, and our average has Whitman up by 0.3 points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Gov
: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Ned Lamont (D) and former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leading their respective primary contests. Lamont leads Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) by 9 points, and Foley leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) by 35 points. In general election match-ups, Lamont and Malloy both lead Foley by double-digits.

GA-Gov: With the Georgia primary quickly approaching, we're getting more and more polling on both parties' races. In the Democratic primary, Mason-Dixon finds former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) by 34 points, 54% to 20% (Barnes needs to clear 50% in order to avoid a runoff). In the GOP primary, it's not a question of if there will be a primary, but rather who will be in it--and pollsters seem to be in disagreement. Mason-Dixon gives state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) an 8-point lead over former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), while Rasmussen finds Handel and former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) tied at 25%, with Oxendine 5 points behind.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 21 points, 57% to 36%. These results are virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

RI-Gov: Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) will reportedly drop his gubernatorial bid today, allowing state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) to take the Democratic nomination without a fight and move right to the general election. Lynch trailed Caprio is polls and in fundraising, and his candidacy just never seemed to fully catch on. What is interesting that Caprio, who is much more moderate than Lynch, is very similar ideologically to former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an independent.

TX-Gov: Rasmussen also has a poll out in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by 9 points, 50% to 41%. This is only a one-point up-tick for Perry since Rasmussen's last poll here last month, but in late June PPP found the race to be tied at 43%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-08: Liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson (D) raised an impressive $325,000 last quarter, but it doesn't come close to matching the massive $803,000 haul he raised last quarter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MS-01: State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) outraised Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the second quarter, $312,000 to $277,000. But Nunnelee still has a long way to go before he can catch up to Childers' cash-on-hand. Childers has $903,000 in the bank, while Nunnelee has just $230,000. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AL: Bentley Wins, Roby & Sewell Advance

State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) defeated former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) 56% to 44% in last night's GOP gubernatorial runoff.

Byrne was clearly the choice of the Alabama GOP establishment--he was endorsed by Republicans such as Gov. Bob Riley, Sen. Jeff Sessions, Rep. Jo Bonner, Rep. Spencer Bachus, and Rep. Mike D. Rogers--and was seen as a more viable general election candidate against state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D).

But Byrne was tainted by a very negative primary campaign against 3rd-place finisher Tim James (R), and Bentley pledged right off the bat to not run any negative ads.

While Bentley ran a strong, clean campaign, in the end it may have the been the influential Alabama Education Association that pushed him over the top. They did his dirty work for him by spending millions of dollars on ads attacking Byrne, who is on bad terms with the union from his tenure as college chancellor.

In the 2nd district GOP runoff, GOP insiders got at least one candidate they wanted. Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R)--a member of the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program--easily defeated bar owner Rick Barber (R) 60% to 40%.

Barber ran an uneven runoff campaign that relied heavily on support from local tea party groups and a few viral YouTube campaign videos featuring the founding fathers.

Roby will now face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D)--one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus--in the general election. Roby may have a unique problem of needing to get to the right of her Democratic opponent. For example, as Montgomery mayor, Bright took a more hard-line conservative position on illegal immigration than Roby.

All in all, this is a seat that Republicans need to win back (it has a massive R+16 tilt) if they want to win back the House.

In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) defeated Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) 55% to 45% in the Democratic House runoff. Sewell benefited from significant financial support from women's groups like EMILY's List and the National Organization for Women. Because this is such a heavily Democratic district, it is almost certain that Sewell will win the general election and become the state's first black congresswoman.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/13/10

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both GOP candidates, Ken Buck (R) and Jane Norton (R), with small leads over their potential Democratic rivals, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D). Buck leads Bennet by 9 points and bests Romanoff by 5. Norton leads Bennet by 7 points and tops Romanoff by 2. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

FL-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) leading Marco Rubio (R) and both potential Democratic candidates, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and billionaire Jeff Greene (D). When matched up against Meek, Crist leads the pack with 35%, while Rubio has 28% and Meek takes 17%. When matched up against Greene, Crist leads with 34% while Rubio takes 29% and Greene takes 18%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Rubio with a slight lead over Crist. Meanwhile, Rubio set a fundraising record for the 2010 cycle, bringing in $4.5 million last quarter. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sharron Angle (R) leading Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) by only three points. Their poll of the race from last month found Angle up by 7 points, and their poll from right after the GOP primary found her up by 11. The Election Frontier currently rates this as a Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will appoint an interim senator to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) on Friday by 5 PM.

FL-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll finds state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by one point. When matched up against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R), she trails by three points.

GA-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) leading the pack for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Handel takes 32%, while state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) and Rep. Nathan Deal (R) are tied for second with 18%. Polls have been all over the place in this race, but this is the first poll with Handel in the lead--fresh off Sarah Palin's endorsement and some seeming gender-motivated momentum.

MD-Gov: A new PPP poll finds incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%.

PA-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (D) leading Dan Onorato (D) by only seven points, 44% to 37%. The last two poll from this race have found Corbett up by 10 points, a comfortable lead but not out of striking distance, especially since Onorato has shown some fundraising prowess.

MN-06: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) leading state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) by nine points, 48% to 39%. The most striking cross-tab is the gender divide: Bachmann leads Clark by 25 points while Clark carries a majority of women. This is sure to be one of the most expensive races in the country, as the conservative firebrand Bachmann reported raising an astonishing $1.7 million in the second quarter and Clark also raised an impressive $910,000.

TN-09: President Obama endorsed Rep. Steve Cohen (D) in Tennessee's Memphis-based 9th district today. Cohen also received support from several members of the congressional black caucus. Cohen, who is white, is facing a primary challenge from former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton (D), who is black. Herenton's entire campaign message has been centered entirely (and unabashedly) around race.

Highlights From the 4th of July Recess

Well, I'm back from a week-long 4th of July vacation. Apparently I didn't miss a whole lot, but here's some of the highlights.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A Survey USA poll in California found Carly Fiorina (R) and Meg Whitman (R) leading their Democratic rivals in the state's senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively, for the first time. Other polls have shown both races tightening up as well.

CA-Sen, MO-Sen, NV-Sen: President Obama went to Missouri and Nevada to stump for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), respectively. Vice President Biden went to California to help Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) fundraise.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) was endorsed by Dick Armey's Freedom Works PAC as he continues to show signs of locking up the GOP nomination over the establishment favorite, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R).

IL-Sen: A Rasmussen poll found Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by one point.

KY-Sen: A PPP poll found Rand Paul (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) tied at 43%.

NV-Sen: In Nevada, Sharron Angle (R) is threatening to take legal action against Harry Reid's (D) campaign for resurrecting her much more right-wing website from when she was running in the GOP primary.

WV-Sen: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is planning on moving the special election for the state's open senate seat to this November instead of 2012. A Rasmussen poll gives Manchin a 14-point lead over potential rival Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Friday, July 2, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/2/10

CO-Sen: As President Obama heads to Missouri for Robin Carnahan (D) and Nevada for Harry Reid (D), and as Vice President Joe Biden stumps for Barbara Boxer (D) in California over the July 4 recess, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)--who's become a primaries kingmaker for conservatives/Tea Partiers--will stump for Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) in Colorado. Buck is trying to keep his image of a conservative insurgent going as gears up for the home stretch of the GOP primary, where he faces establishment favorite Jane Norton (R), a former lieutenant governor.

IL-Sen
: Now that the second financial quarter is officially over, I'll be posting a summary of all the major candidates' fundraising and cash-on-hand totals once they all come out. But until then, I'll leak some of the info ahead of time, like this. Despite all of the controversy for embellishing his military credentials and past as a teacher, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) had another strong quarter. He pulled in $2.3 million (which is a hundred thousand more than last quarter) and now has $4 million in the bank.

KS-Sen: Another stop on Sen. Jim DeMint's (R) July 4 recess road trip: Kansas. He'll be stumping for Rep. Jerry Moran (R) as he tries to out-conservative his primary opponent, Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R), who has recently been endorsed by Sarah Palin. It's the battle of the conservative king (or queen) makers.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, almost doubling his haul from the first quarter. His spokesman refused to say how much cash the campaign has on hand.

OH-Sen
: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 43% to 39%. Most other recent polls of the race have shown Fisher up by a few points, and our average shows Fisher with a 0.2% lead. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

MD-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) three points ahead over sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), 46% to 43%. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

WI-Gov: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will stump and raise money for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's (D) campaign for governor. Barrett is a member of Bloomberg's Mayors Against Illegal Guns coalition. Barrett could certainly use the help as he has been lagging in the polls against both potential Republican nominees, Scott Walker (R) and Mark Neumann (R).

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) raised $101,000 from May 13 to June 23, and now has $112,000 in the bank. But before she gets to use that cash to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D), she has to fend off a challenge from businessman Rick Barber (R) in a July 13 runoff. The NRCC clearly favors Roby in the race (she's a "Young Gun") while Barber has done all he can to consolidate the Tea Party movement. Barber raised only $49,000 in that same period and has only $25,000 in cash on hand. But then again, he also has this ad at his disposal. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

SC-05: The NRCC is up with a new ad attacking Rep. John Spratt (D), the chairman of the House Budget Committee, for failing to pass a budget. This is a win-win situation for the GOP, because if the Democrats don't pass a budget, then they look inept at leading. But if they do pass a budget, there will likely be huge deficits that Republican candidates can use to say that Democrats' spending has gotten out of control. Spratt has a strong challenger this cycle in state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The Election Frontier currently rates this race: Lean DEM.

AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is targeting a handful of Republican Senate candidates and House incumbents over the July 4 recess for their votes against card-check legislation, the jobs bill and Wall Street reform. The Senate targets are: Rep. Mark Kirk (IL), Rep. Roy Blunt (R), and Rep. Mike Castle (R). The House targets are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Charlie Dent (PA-15).

DGA: One day after their Republican counterparts announced raising a whopping $19 million in the second quarter, the Democratic Governors Association announced--conveniently right before the holiday weekend--that they raised only $9.1 million over the same period of time. The RGA has $40 million in the bank to the DGA's $22 million. DGA officials are making the case that "the RGA’s coffers have benefited from the troubles that have roiled the Republican National Committee." This may actually have some merit, as the national, Senate, and House Democratic committees have thus far outraised their GOP counterparts.

Wall Street Reform: In case you were wondering, here's a list of the 3 Republicans and 19 Democrats that voted against their parties on the financial reform legislation that was passed on Wednesday. The Republicans who voted "yes" are: Mike Castle (DE-AL, running for Senate), Joseph Cao (LA-02), and Walter Jones (NC-03). The Democrats who voted "no" are basically a who's who of vulnerable incumbents and Blue Dogs: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Marion Berry (AR-01, retiring), Mike Ross (AR-04), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Travis Childers (MS-01), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Bill Owens (NY-23), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Dan Boren (OK-02), Mark Critz (PA-12), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Jim Cooper (TN-05), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-05), and Rick Boucher (VA-09). The bill now moves to the Senate, where things will get a bit trickier for Democrats.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/1/10

AZ-Sen: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is trying to get back on the offensive against Sen. John McCain (R) by releasing a four-minute video pointing out his ties to convicted Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein. Rothstein used to be a fundraiser for the senator, but the McCain campaign responded by saying: "John McCain couldn't pick him out of a lineup." The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Safe Republican.

FL-Sen
: The St. Petersburg Times reports that a judge has scheduled an October trial for Jim Greer, the former state GOP chairman accused of corruption who was hand-picked by Gov. Charlie Crist (I). The trial starts two weeks before election day and could slow any momentum Crist has down the home stretch. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A month after losing a close primary to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) is saying he won't endorse either candidate in the general election. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%, virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. The Election Frontier's polling average finds Toomey leading Sestak by one point, and we currently rate this race a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Survey USA poll confirms that it's going to be Sen. Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in November. Instead of party primaries, Washington state has an open "jungle" primary in which all candidates of all parties compete in the same primary and the top two finishers advance. In the survey, Murray gets 37% and Rossi gets 33%--way ahead of all the other candidates. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) extending her lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. According the poll, Brewer leads Goddard by 18 points, 53% to 35%, a five-point improvement from their poll from last month. If this election continues to be a referendum on the Arizona immigration law, then Brewer should win pretty easily.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has picked a running mate in his comeback bid: former Secretary of State Mary Kane (R). The motive behind the pick seems to be that Ehrlich is looking to shore up his support in Montgomery County, where Kane lives. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is running with his lieutenant governor, Anthony Brown (D).

OH-Gov: It looks like former Rep. John Kasich (R) is making his first move to the center in the general election campaign. He now says he supports "a federal extension of unemployment benefits."

OR-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by one point, 41% to 40%. Even though Magellan is GOP pollster, these results seem pretty much in line with what other recent public polls have found.

WY-Gov: Not that this is actually important, but actor Wilford Brimley has decided to support state Auditor Rita Meyer (R) in the crowded GOP primary. But hey, what other news is coming out of Wyoming anyway, right?

RGA: The Republican Governor's Association hauled in just under $19 million in contributions in the second quarter and has $40 million in the bank. Under the leadership of Mississippi Gov. (and 2012 hopeful?) Haley Barbour, the RGA seems to be doing a lot better financially than their committee counterparts--the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) is facing allegations that "as a police sergeant nearly 20 years ago, he mishandled the investigation of a subordinate officer who had been accused of strip-searching two teenage girls." Perry, who has been endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Mitt Romney, faces a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Joe Malone (R), who is making hay of the issue.