Monday, August 2, 2010

CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Romanoff, Meas Take Leads

Survey USA poll came out with a new poll this weekend that finds challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) has snatched the lead from Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Senate Democratic primary.

Romanoff--who just sold his house to keep his campaign afloat--edges Bennet 48% to 45%, according to the poll. Six weeks ago, Survey USA found Bennet with a 17-point lead over Romanoff. This is the first time we've ever seen Romanoff ahead in a public poll.

Bennet's campaign responded with an internal poll showing him up 41% to 37%, and if the incumbent's campaign--which has been leading all along--is putting out an internal poll showing a close race, you know it's going to be close. And Romanoff is surging at the right time because voters go the polls a week from tomorrow.

In the Republican primary, Ken Buck (R) leads Jane Norton (R) 50% to 41%, and still looks to be the solid favorite for the GOP nomination.

In general election match-ups, Buck is tied with Romanoff at 44% and ties Bennet at 43%. Norton leads Romanoff by five points but trails Bennet by three.

Now, over to the state's exciting governor's race, where Survey USA is the first pollster to put a poll into the field since former Rep. Tom Tancredo joined the race as a third-party candidate.

But first, there's been some serious movement in the Republican primary. Six weeks ago, Survey USA found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) to be leading Dan Maes (R) by 28 points, 57% to 29%. Now, after McInnis's campaign has imploded as a result of multiple counts of plagiarism coming to light, Maes now leads McInnis by four points, 43% to 39%.

For the general election, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leads McInnis by five points, 48% to 43%, when its just the two of them in the race. But if Tancredo joins the mix, Hickenlooper's lead jumps to 18.

When it's just Hickenlooper vs. Maes, the Democrat leads by nine points, 50% to 41%. But when Survey USA includes Tancredo, Hickenlooper leads by a whopping 22 points.

So yeah, the conventional wisdom that Tom Tancredo is hurting GOP chances at victory in this race happens to be spot on.

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