Wednesday, July 14, 2010

AL: Bentley Wins, Roby & Sewell Advance

State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) defeated former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) 56% to 44% in last night's GOP gubernatorial runoff.

Byrne was clearly the choice of the Alabama GOP establishment--he was endorsed by Republicans such as Gov. Bob Riley, Sen. Jeff Sessions, Rep. Jo Bonner, Rep. Spencer Bachus, and Rep. Mike D. Rogers--and was seen as a more viable general election candidate against state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D).

But Byrne was tainted by a very negative primary campaign against 3rd-place finisher Tim James (R), and Bentley pledged right off the bat to not run any negative ads.

While Bentley ran a strong, clean campaign, in the end it may have the been the influential Alabama Education Association that pushed him over the top. They did his dirty work for him by spending millions of dollars on ads attacking Byrne, who is on bad terms with the union from his tenure as college chancellor.

In the 2nd district GOP runoff, GOP insiders got at least one candidate they wanted. Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R)--a member of the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program--easily defeated bar owner Rick Barber (R) 60% to 40%.

Barber ran an uneven runoff campaign that relied heavily on support from local tea party groups and a few viral YouTube campaign videos featuring the founding fathers.

Roby will now face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D)--one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus--in the general election. Roby may have a unique problem of needing to get to the right of her Democratic opponent. For example, as Montgomery mayor, Bright took a more hard-line conservative position on illegal immigration than Roby.

All in all, this is a seat that Republicans need to win back (it has a massive R+16 tilt) if they want to win back the House.

In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) defeated Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) 55% to 45% in the Democratic House runoff. Sewell benefited from significant financial support from women's groups like EMILY's List and the National Organization for Women. Because this is such a heavily Democratic district, it is almost certain that Sewell will win the general election and become the state's first black congresswoman.

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