CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who suspended his campaign after losing the state GOP endorsement to Linda McMahon (R) in May, is jumping back into the Republican Senate primary with less than a month to go until voters go to the polls. He is starting to air ads again, urging voters to "look at the issues." It's not clear how well McMahon consolidated GOP support when she only had to face economist and Tea Party favorite Peter Schiff (R) in the primary. Since McMahon stopped short of imploding during that time, I'd give her the advantage in this race--but I'd still like to see some polling.
KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 49% to 41%--virtually unchanged from their June poll. Current rating: Lean Republican.
WV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) announced this morning that she will not run in this November's special election against Gov. Joe Manchin (D). She cited concerns and risks about running for her House seat and the Senate seat simultaneously. Now the West Virginia GOP seems to be without a credible candidate. The name being mentioned the most in mining company owner John Raese (R)--who ran for Senate in 1984 and 2006 and has the ability to self-fund his candidacy. With this development, we are moving the race into the Likely Democrat category.
Meanwhile, it looks like Manchin won't have the Democratic primary field to himself: 95-year-old former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) announced his bid earlier today. Hechler, who represents the more progressive wing of the state Democratic party, will be running to Manchin's left.
FL-Gov: A new PPP poll shows state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading both Republicans--state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Rick Scott (R)--and Bud Chiles (I) for the first time. When paired up against McCollum and Chiles, she leads 37-23-14. Against Scott and Chiles, she leads 36-30-13. A key finding from the poll: "Scott and McCollum both have very poor favorability numbers. Their primary battle has completely turned off Democrats and Independents, and Republicans aren't seeing them very positively either." The question is: does this negativity give Sink enough room to eke out an unlikely win?
GA-Gov: Like I said earlier today, a 2012 proxy fight seems to being brewing in the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff, with Sarah Palin supporting former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Newt Gingrich backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R). Now, it looks like another 2012 doesn't want to be left out of the fun: Mitt Romney endorsed Handel today. Meanwhile, Georgia Right to Life is backing Deal, on account of Handel's support for abortion in cases of rape and incest.
MN-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three Democrats with small leads over state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I). Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads 40-36-10, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) leads 40-35-11, and former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) leads 37-36-12.
NV-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) with a big lead over Rory Reid (D), 52% to 38%. This result is pretty much in line with most other polls we've seen of this race. Current rating: Likely Republican.
OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their last poll of the race, from June, showed Kasich with a 7-point lead. Current rating: Toss-Up.
NY-01: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) endorsed Chris Cox (R), the son of the state GOP party chair and the grandson of Richard Nixon. Cox is running against self-funding businessman Randy Altschuler (R) and former SEC attorney George Demos (R) in the Republican primary.
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