Daily Rundown: 6/30/10

CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.

CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."

IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.

OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.

CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.

HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.

ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.

WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.

LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.

Daily Rundown: 6/29/10

FL-Sen: The Naples News reports that two donors who gave to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign back when he was a Republican are filing "a class-action lawsuit on behalf of all contributors who are demanding their money back after Crist announced he’d run as an Independent."

LA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 18 points, 53% to 35%. Two weeks ago, PPP found Vitter's lead to be in single digits but Magellan Strategies found Vitter up by 20 points.

WI-Sen: A new poll from PPP finds little-known businessman Ron Johnson (R) coming within two points of Sen. Russ Feingold (D). This confirms the results of an earlier Rasmussen survey which found Feingold up by only one. What's more troubling for Feingold is that 62% of Wisconsin voters don't know enough about Johnson to form an opinion of him. Pollster Tom Jensen notes: "A fresher face may be helpful for Republicans as they try to pull off the upset in this race." If Johnson turns out to be a solid candidate and introduces himself well to voters in the state, he could have a real shot at unseating Feingold.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is on the defensive for an ad he released three months ago, which touts his military service. The ad claims: “Robert Bentley put himself through medical school, served his country and healed troops wounded in Vietnam.” But much like Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), Bentley was a Vietnam-era veteran, not a Vietnam veteran. He served in a hospital on American soil. Meanwhile, Bentley is up with an internal poll showing him with a 19-point lead over former two-year college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R)--who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting--in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Yeah, right.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still has a very comfortable lead over his likely rival, former Rep. Rick Lazio (R). Cuomo leads Lazio 55% to 28%, and even does well among Republicans.

OH-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll has some good news and bad news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The good news is that he leads his rival, former Rep. John Kasich (R), by five points. The bad news is that he doesn't even reach the 45% mark, and 52% of Ohioans don't know enough about Kasich to form an opinion of him, meaning his numbers have room to grow. Meanwhile, a new PPP poll finds Kasich leading Strickland 43% to 41%.

RI-Gov: The Rhode Island Democratic Party endorsed state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) over Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Polls have shown Caprio to be a more formidable general election candidate than Lynch.

ID-01: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in another move that is sure to boost his conservative bona fides in one of the most conservative districts in the country. Minnick has previously been the only Democrat endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Meanwhile, his opponent, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), has been trying to get back on good terms with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), who he bad-mouthed by name in the GOP primary against NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward (R). Labrador still has not been added to the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program. "I understand I cannot win without their help," Labrador said of the NRCC. "I need the entire party to be united behind me against a Democrat who can self-fund in the millions of dollars."

MI-03: The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has an astonishingly good track record for endorsements so far this cycle, is endorsing 29-year old state Rep. Justin Amash (R) in this open seat race. Amash, who is seen as the favorite among Tea Party activists, faces former Kent County Commission Chair Steve Heacock (R) in the GOP primary, who has been endorsed by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R) and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce.

RI-01: The Rhode Island Democratic Party officially endorsed Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) for the seat being vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D). The state party passed over its former chairman, Bill Lynch (D), and state Rep. David Segal (D)--who are also running in the primary.

WV-01: Here's some intra-party drama. Former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) is starting up a PAC against the state senator who ousted Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) in the Democratic primary called "Citizens Who Refuse to Vote for Mike Oliverio." Hechler and Oliverio have some bad blood from when they previously ran against each other in a primary for Secretary of State. Hechler said that he didn't care about hurting a fellow Democrat's chances at winning the general election because “Oliverio, through his record, has shown he is further to the right of most Republicans.”

Daily Rundown: 6/28/10

CO-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) in the Senate GOP primary, citing her as the more electable general election candidate. This could potentially help Norton shift back the momentum of the race to her after her Tea Party-backed opponent, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), has led by double-digits in recent polling.

IL-Sen: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias's (D) respite from media criticism following Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) long line of mistakes and gaffes appears to be over. He has been subpoenaed in former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's trial.

IA-Sen: EMILY's List, a group that raises money for pro-choice female candidates, has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) in her underdog bid against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). Polls have been all over the place in this race--some showing her down by single digits and others showing her down by more than 20 points. But this endorsement will definitely give Conlin a financial boost (even though she has her own money to pour into the race) as she takes on the entrenched Republican incumbent.

KS-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in the Senate GOP primary by 20 points, 53% to 33%. Looks like Sarah Palin needs to come stump for Tiahrt sooner rather than later.

SC-Sen: South Carolina law enforcement officials will investigate if any laws were broken with the way that Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene (D) has been representing his personal finances. The focus will probably be on how collected the $10,400 to pay the filing fee to run for Senate while he couldn't even afford to hire a lawyer for the felony obscenity charges he faces.

FL-Gov: Newt Gingrich is the latest Republican to endorse Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) gubernatorial campaign, as he fends off a challenge from self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush were the last two big-name Republicans to endorse McCollum. Meanwhile, Bud Chiles (I) is refusing to drop out of the race despite complaints from Democrats that his candidacy will siphon off votes from state CFO Alex Sink (D) and allow a Republican victory.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race found Haley up by 21 points, but that can be attributed to the large post-primary-victory bumps that Rasmussen has consistently found for candidates of both parties across the country.

MS-01: Following an endorsement from the National Rifle Association last week, Rep. Travis Childers (D) now has the backing of National Right to Life, an anti-abortion organization. It looks like Childers is winning the early battle to establish conservative bona fides in his race against state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R).

Senator Robert Byrd Dies at 92

Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), the longest-serving congressman is U.S. history, after being hospitalized the day before, died Monday. He was 92.

The Charleston Gazette writes that he "spent much of his career as a conservative Democrat and ended it by fiercely opposing the war in Iraq and questioning the state's powerful coal industry."

Byrd's name is one of the most recognized and revered names in the state. As chairman of the Senate Appropriations committee, he steered significant funds and projects to his home state, many of which bear his name. He will forever be a giant in West Virginia's political history.

It's not yet clear whether there will be a special election this November to replace Byrd, as West Virginia's succession laws are a bit murky. The law states that if the seat has been vacated after July 3 (which is five days from now), then no special election is necessary until the end of the full term, which would be in 2012.

But the law isn't clear on when a vacancy technically occurs. It could be at the time of death, or when the Senate informs the state, or when the governor declares it. Or maybe its something else. An adviser to Gov. Joe Manchin (D) tells First Read that he doubts there will be a special election in November.

Now, with the Senate on the brink of passing a landmark Wall Street reform bill (the vote was supposed to be this week), Democrats will want Manchin to move as quickly as possible on appointing an interim replacement.

Democrats have two options in moving forward with the financial reform legislation. They can try to convince the two Democrats that didn't vote for the bill because it didn't go far enough--Sens. Russ Feingold (WI) and Maria Cantwell (WA)--to support it now. Or they can wait for Manchin to appoint a replacement.

Manchin is said to want the seat for himself, and will probably run whenever the special election is (in 2010 or 2012), but has ruled out appointing himself to the post.

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/24/10

AZ-Sen: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) with a much bigger lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP primary than previous polls have found. According to the survey, McCain leads Hayworth by 23 points, 52% to 29%. The last two polls of the race found McCain up by 11 and 12 points, respectively, and McCain was under the 50% watermark in both.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) leading Sen. Harry Reid (D) 48% to 41%. Their poll from right after her primary victory found her up by 11 points, and there has been no other public polling of the race since then. Meanwhile, Reid is up with a new ad calling Angle "just too extreme" for Nevada. The ad slams Angle for wanting to wipe out social security (and calling it a form of welfare) and medicare.

NC-Sen: Rasmussen finds a very close race between Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and Sen. Richard Burr (R) in the first public poll after Marshall won the Democratic primary. The poll finds Burr leading Marshall by only one point, 44% to 43%. Their last poll had Burr up by 14 (!) points. Before the Marshall camp gets too excited over this, Rasmussen has a reputation for finding big bumps for candidates after they win a primary (see: Rand Paul and Sharron Angle). PPP, meanwhile, found Burr with a 7-point lead earlier this month.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), the GOP nominee for governor, picked state Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) as his running mate earlier today. Reynolds is well-liked by state conservatives, which is important because Branstad doesn't have the best relationship with the conservative base of his party. Branstad was under considerable pressure to pick conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), his defeated primary rival, as his running mate. Vander Plaats still hasn't endorsed Branstad, and has floated the idea of running as an independent, which would siphon off a good deal of votes on Branstad's right. There's also word that he might try to challenge Branstad's pick at the GOP nominating convention this weekend.

TX-Gov: Bill Clinton, who seems to be a much bigger campaign booster than Barack Obama these days, endorsed former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) today. He framed the election as a choice between "between a proven, mainstream public servant, Bill White, and one of the most strident, divisive political figures in the nation," referring to White's opponent, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R). Recent polling confirms that White is one of the few Democrats that has a real shot at knocking off a Republican incumbent this cycle.

VT-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Vermont's open gubernatorial contest finds Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) leading all five Democratic candidates in a general election match-up. Secretary of State Deb Markowitz (D) appears to be the strongest general election candidate in the Democratic field, only trailing Dubie 47% to 40%, while her no other Democrat comes within 16 points of the Republican.

MA-10: Former Quincy Mayor James Sheets says he's going to run as independent for the seat left open by retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt (D). This move hurts the eventual Democratic nominee (either state Sen. Robert O'Leary or Norfolk County District Attorney William Keating), as Sheets used to be a Democrat.

PA-11: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) appeared to make a racist comment Wednesday at the financial reform conference committee. Said Kanjorski: “We're giving relief to people that I deal with in my office every day now unfortunately. But because of the longevity of this recession, these are people — and they're not minorities and they're not defective and they're not all the things you'd like to insinuate that these programs are about — these are average, good American people." Kanjorski's opponent, Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta (R), and the NRCC pounced on these comments immediately, saying “Kanjorski’s candid moment reveals a mentality that goes against American values and traditions. The fact that he does not believe minorities are ‘average, good American people’ uncovers a harsh inequity that has no place today, never mind at the seat of government."

WI-Gov: Both Republicans Lead Barrett

A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates for governor leading Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) in the general election.

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who won the endorsement of the state GOP, leads Barrett 49% to 41%, according to the survey. Rasmussen's poll from last month found Scott with a similar 48-41 lead.

Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) also leads Barrett by 8 points, 47% to 39%. Last month's poll found him up by 2 points.

The only encouragement Barrett should draw from this poll is that neither Republican reaches the 50% mark. But then again, neither does he.

Daily Rundown: 6/23/10

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain's (R) campaign is up with a new ad attacking former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) for promising people free government grants in an infomercial for National Grants Conferences. Here's an excerpt: "Twenty-four attorneys general condemned this company for promising people free government money, then ripping them off. ... J.D. Hayworth: pork-barrel spender, lobbyist, huckster."

CT-Sen: Martha Hart, the widow of the late wrestler Owen Hart, is suing the WWE and Linda McMahon (R), its former CEO and likely Senate GOP nominee. Hart "alleges that the WWE has used her late husband's name, image and celebrity profile without her consent and in violation of his contract with the company." This is yet another example of McMahon's baggage that could, at the very least, be an embarrassing distraction from her uphill battle against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D).

FL-Sen: Democratic primary rivals Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and billionaire businessman Jeff Greene (D) squared off in a debate for the first time, and it wasn't pretty. Both candidates lobbed harsh, personal attacks at each other rather than talking about the issues. Meek attacked Greene for getting rich off of betting on the collapse of the housing market using credit default swaps, to which Greene responded that Meek probably didn't even know what those were. And Greene accused Meek of securing a consulting job for his mother--former Rep. Carrie Meek (D)--through a developer that now faces criminal charges. The winner in all of this is Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who looks like the only grown-up in this race and continues to siphon off Democratic votes.

OR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading by a smaller-than-expected margin over GOP nominee Jim Huffman (R), 47% to 37%. These results are similar to a Survey USA poll released two weeks ago showing Wyden up by 13 points, 51% to 38%. Election Frontier's rating of this race remains "Safe Democrat", but the race is worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile, Wyden's camp is out with an internal poll showing him up 53-23 over Huffman.

AL-Gov: Former Rep. Sonny Callahan, the campaign manager for Tim James's unsuccessful gubernatorial primary campaign, will endorse state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) in the GOP runoff. This is the closest thing to an endorsement from James himself, who came just short of qualifying for the runoff. This gives Bentley's campaign a much-needed boost, as he is still the underdog against state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R), who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting.

MA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading his two rivals in his reelection bid. Patrick leads with 41%, followed by Charlie Baker (R) with 34%. State Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) trails with 16%. Rasmussen's poll from last month found Patrick up by 14 points.

NM-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez (R) leading Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) 44% to 43%. Even though Magellan is a GOP pollster, it finds a slightly closer race than Rasmussen and Survey USA have found.

OH-Gov: An aide to former Rep. John Kasich's (R) gubernatorial campaign is in big trouble for mocking Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) humble upbringing. Said the aide: “Not until Ted Strickland feared needing their votes did he give urban Ohioans a second thought. Having grown up in a chicken shack on Duck Run, he has all but ignored our cities’ economies and their workers.” This was quite the boneheaded move, as it makes Kasich seem shallow and alienates the same rural and Appalachian voters that he needs to win in November. The aide has since apologized, but added that he didn't mean it as an insult. Strickland's campaign responded: "Only the congressman from Wall Street would be so out of touch as to insult Ted's humble upbringing." Reports show that the Strickland campaign intends to keep this story alive.

PA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) by 10 points, 45% to 35%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Corbett up by 16.

UT: Lee, Matheson Win Party Nods

In yesterday's Utah GOP Senate primary, attorney Mike Lee (R) edged businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) 51-49. Lee will now likely replace Sen. Bob Bennett (R) in the Senate.

Lee was backed in the primary by conservative heavyweights such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), Freedom Works chairman Dick Armey, and RedState's Erick Erickson.

Bridgewater was endorsed by Bennett, who was ousted in the GOP nominating convention earlier this year by none other than Lee and Bridgewater.

Even though they agree on almost every issue and are both very conservative by national standards, Lee painted Bridgewater as a moderate and a quasi-incumbent after he was endorsed by Bennett. Bridgewater's main argument throughout the primary was: "Do you really want another lawyer in Congress?"

Lee now faces only token general election competition from restaurant owner Sam Granato (D).

And while last night spelled the end for one congressman, it highlighted the resilience of another.

In Utah's 2nd district Democratic primary, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) easily fended off a challenge from his left by liberal activist Claudia Wright (D), who surprised Matheson by garnering enough convention delegates to force a primary. But Matheson ultimately prevailed in the primary by a 35-point margin.

Wright tried to tap into liberal frustration over Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade legislation, but it turns out that the wider Utah Democratic electorate is much more moderate than the activist convention delegates.

And it probably didn't hurt that Matheson didn't take anything for granted by spending nearly $500,000 to Wright's $17,000.

National Democrats are sure to be relieved at this result, because the much more liberal Wright would have been a much easier target for Republicans in the general election. But now, Matheson is the frontrunner over the GOP nominee, state Rep. Morgan Philpot (R).

NC: Marshall, Johnson Cruise Past Rivals

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) handily defeated former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) in the Democratic Senate runoff by a 60-40 margin yesterday.

Marshall beat Cunningham by nine points after the first round of voting back in May, and received a boost from African-American voters after third-place finished Kenneth Lewis (D), who is black, endorsed her. She also received support from grassroots organizations like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America down the stretch.

This is pretty embarrassing for the DSCC, who actively recruited Cunningham to run (even though he refused a few times) after Marshall was already in the race, and spent nearly $80,000 on his behalf.

Still, they wasted no time in making nice with Marshall. "She is a proven reformer who has taken on the special interests in her state, and has cracked down on lobbyist activity, insurance company abuses and excess on Wall Street," said DSCC Chairman Bob Menendez. "Voters will face a choice between a Democrat who has focused on creating jobs and the needs of North Carolina's middle class and a Republican who puts partisanship ahead of doing what's right."

Marshall appears to be the stronger general election candidate going forward. She's been elected statewide as secretary of state four times and can now claim some outsider cred as having run against two DSCC hand-picked rivals: Cunningham this year and Erskine Bowles (D) in 2002.

However, she has not been a prolific fundraiser so far, which could be a problem because her opponent, Sen. Richard Burr (R), already has a massive $5.3 million warchest at his disposal. If Marshall can get North Carolina Democrats excited and give this election more of an anti-incumbent theme rather than an anti-Democrat one, she might actually have a shot.

In the 8th congressional district, national Republicans can sigh a little easier. Former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) smoked self-funding businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) 61% to 39% in the GOP runoff. D'Annunzio, to say the least, has a very checkered past and would not have been a viable general election candidate.

Members of the House GOP leadership actually formally weighed into this race, endorsing Johnson shortly after the first round of voting in May. He will now go on to face freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in the general election, who seems fairly vulnerable--especially given his lackluster fundraising thus far.

SC: Haley & Scott Win, Inglis Ousted

In Tuesday's South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, as expected, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) cruised to a 65-35 victory over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R). Haley is heavily favored to defeat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) in the general election and make history as South Carolina's first non-white-male governor.

Everyone's making a lot of hay over the diversity she brings to the GOP, and how--as a conservative Indian-American woman governor from a deep south state--she will be at the top of everyone's VP short list even as early as 2012.

And speaking of 2012, its clear that this was also a big win for potential 2012 hopefuls Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, who endorsed Haley at critical times in her campaign.

Romney endorsed her back when she was "Nikki who?", as she likes to say, and stuck in single digits. He also donated $42,000 to her campaign from various PACs and campaigned with her in person for her runoff bid.

Palin, meanwhile, joined former South Carolina first lady Jenny Sanford in endorsing Haley at a critical time, immediately launching her into frontrunner status. And Palin stood by her side when Haley was accused of infidelity by swatting down the claims. Haley, for her part, actually gave a shout-out to Palin in her victory speech: "She gave us that boost we needed when we needed it."

So if Haley becomes governor, and both Romney and Palin run in 2012, its hard to say who she would endorse in the all-important South Carolina primary. She might just stay out of it completely, given that she owes both of these national GOP figures a huge favor.

Anyway, back to 2010. In South Carolina's 1st district GOP runoff, state Rep. Tim Scott (R) handily defeated Paul (son of Strom) Thurmond (R) 68% to 32%. Scott--who was endorsed by the entire House GOP leadership, the Club for Growth, Sarah Palin, and more--will likely go on to become the first black member of the GOP House caucus since J.C. Watts of Oklahoma retired in 2002.

In the 3rd district race to succeed now unemployed Gresham Barrett, state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) came back to narrowly defeat businessman Richard Cash (R) in the runoff, to the tune of 51.5% to 48.5%. Duncan also had the support of the Club for Growth and was the favorite despite finishing a surprise second to Cash in the first round of voting, while Cash wasn't even supposed to make the runoff.

And finally, in the 4th district, Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was humiliated last night by a 71-29 loss to Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), a Tea Party favorite. Inglis was a little too moderate and a little too willing to compromise with Democrats for this dark red district during his time in Congress. He is the third House member and the fifth member of Congress to get ousted in a primary this year.

Daily Rundown: 6/22/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) leading former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)--who was just caught on video telling people about how they could obtain free money from the government in an infomercial--47% to 36% in the GOP Senate primary. But this poll should still be a red flag for the McCain campaign, as he's still under the all-important 50% watermark. Rasmussen's poll from last month had McCain leading by a similar margin.

IL-Sen: Businessman Mike Niecestro, a disgruntled Republican who was going to pour $1 million into an independent Senate campaign, ended his bid before it even started after failing to come up with enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. He's backing Constitution Party candidate Randy Stufflebeam, who will siphon off votes on Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) right flank.

PA-Sen: A new PPP poll shows Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) tied at 41% in Pennsylvania's Senate contest. The poll finds Sestak has consolidated the Democratic base after his post-primary bounce has wore off.

GA-Gov: A new Survey USA poll took a look at the GOP and Democratic primaries in Georgia's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) leads the pack with 34%, followed by former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) with 18%, while Rep. Nathan Deal (R) trails with 17%. A runoff looks likely between Oxendine and either Handel or Deal. In the Democratic primary, former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) looks poised to clinch the nomination outright. He crushes Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 63% to 13%, with no other candidates reaching double-digits.

IL-Gov: Scott Lee Cohen (D), a pawnshop owner who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor only to withdraw later after getting arrested for pulling a knife on his prostitute girlfriend, will now run for governor as an independent. He'll make no real impact on the race, but he's sure to make a lot of noise and draw a lot of (probably negative) attention down the stretch.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Dudley up by one point, and a recent Survey USA poll found him leading by 7.

TX-Gov: PPP's out with a new poll in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) and former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) tied at 43%. Said pollster Tom Jensen: "Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger." Key finding: independents now support White by a 42-36 margin.

KS-03: State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is out with a new web ad showing him with his wife and a few young children. The only problem? Yoder doesn't have any kids. Whoops.

MS-01: As expected, the National Rifle Association endorsed Rep. Travis Childers (D). Childers's GOP rival, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R), tried to preempt the announcement by saying that the NRA had supported him in the past and that they tend to support incumbents that are supportive of their agenda over challengers.

Runoff Tuesday: What to Watch For

Voters in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah will head to the polls tomorrow to vote for their second-round choices in key House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests.

In the Carolinas, there are a number of key runoff races because neither candidate reached the (40% in North Carolina and 50% in South Carolina) threshold to clinch the nomination outright. And in Utah, neither candidate in a few select races reached the 60% threshold to clinch the nomination at their party's state nominating convention.

So here's what you should watch for tomorrow in what we (and everybody else) are calling "Runoff Tuesday":

NC-Sen: In the first round of voting, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) bested former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), the preferred candidate of the DSCC, 36% to 27%. Since then, all of the momentum has swung to Marshall, receiving the endorsements of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis (D) and progressive grassroots movements like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America. The only public poll released since the first round of voting was from PPP, which found the candidates tied at 36%. With extremely low turnout expected and the inherent unpredictability of runoffs in general (see: Arkansas), anything could happen here. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Marshall comes away with the nomination.

NC-08: The GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) has turned quite ridiculous since the first round of voting. Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has come under fire for past criminal activity (including time in prison), drug use, declaring himself a prophet, and refusing to pay child support among other things by local media organizations and his rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R). D'Annunzio, who has self-funded the majority of his campaign and finished ahead of Johnson in the first round of voting, backed out of a televised debate and slapped Johnson with a defamation lawsuit since then. Meanwhile, D'Annunzio has lost almost all support among local Tea Party groups and other outside groups and Johnson has garnered the open support of the House GOP leadership. A PPP poll taken of the race last week showed Johnson leading D'Annunzio 49% to 39%, and showed him to be a much stronger general election candidate. If Johnson loses this one, I'll be flabbergasted.

SC-Gov: After the slanderous first round of voting that included multiple charges of infidelity and outward racism, the runoff between state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) seems fairly...dare I say civilized? The only controversy that has arose since the primary has been about Haley's Sikh heritage, but even that was pretty quiet. The South Carolina GOP is fairly split between the two, but it doesn't really matter as Haley (who was one percentage point shy on clinching the GOP nod outright) looks poised to cruise to victory in round two. The real drama in this race will be who gets the credit for the win (aside from Haley): Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or the Republican Governors Association--which endorsed Haley right after round one.

SC-01: State Rep. Tim Scott (R) is trying to become to first African-American in the House GOP caucus since J.C. Watts retired in 2002. He is taking on Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of late legendary South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond. Scott bested Thurmond 32% to 16% in the first round of voting, and appears to have all the momentum moving forward. He has since picked up the endorsements of Sarah Palin, the House GOP leadership, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Thurmond, meanwhile, has been endorsed by several of his former primary rivals, including the big-named Carroll Campbell III (R).

SC-03: Businessman Richard Cash (R) surprised a lot of people by finishing first in the primary with 25%, with Club for Growth-backed state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) taking 23%. Your guess is as mine for who comes out on top here.

SC-04: The race in this district is almost sure to fuel the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the mainstream media is so attached to. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) beat Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 39% to 28% in the primary, mostly fueled by conservative anger over Inglis's vote for TARP. Since then, Inglis's House colleagues have essentially left him for dead. Gowdy is almost certain to seal the deal tomorrow, making Inglis the fifth member of congress to be ousted in a primary.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was the first member of congress to be ousted this cycle. Bennett finished third at the state GOP nominating convention, making him ineligible for the primary. Businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) won 57% of the vote at the convention while attorney Mike Lee (R) won 42%. Bridgewater and Lee agree on almost everything and both have support from local tea parties, so the primary campaign narrative has been: "do you want a businessman or lawyer in the Senate?" Bennett, who was believed to have more influence among Utah GOP voters than with the conservative convention delegates, has endorsed Bridgewater. Lee has boasted support from conservative ideologues such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), and Freedom Works PAC chairman Dick Armey. The only poll taken of the race showed Bridgewater with a 9-point lead over Lee, but a quarter of GOP voters are still undecided. This is expected be an old-fashioned horse race of a finish.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is taking no chances in reclaiming the Democratic nomination as he tries to stave off a challenge to his left from teacher and progressive activist Claudia Wright (D). Matheson beat Wright by a surprisingly small 55% to 45% margin at the state convention, and has since outspent her 42-to-1 in response. Wright has tapped into Democrats' frustration with Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade as well as his conservative views on immigration and gay marriage. But it's not clear whether Wright can turn that frustration into votes. A poll taken of the race this weekend shows her trailing Matheson 52% to 33%. Utah Republicans are surely rooting for Wright to win the nomination, as she would be a much easier target in the general election.

AZ-Gov: Brewer Way Ahead of GOP Rivals

A new Rasmussen poll of Arizona's gubernatorial GOP primary shows incumbent Gov. Jan Brewer (R) in an incredibly strong position to claim her party's nomination, with a whopping 45-point lead over her closest challenger.

Brewer leads the pack with 61%, with businessman Buz Mills (R) in a distant second with 16%. State Treasurer Dean Martin (R) picks up the support of 12% of Republicans.

Rasmussen's poll from last month showed her up by 27 points, and their poll from April showed her up by only 8 points.

This meteoric surge can be attributed to her signature of the state's controversial immigration law, which is wildly popular among Arizona Republicans and is fairly popular in the state as a whole.

Brewer will likely face Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election, where the issue of illegal immigration will surely take center stage yet again.

Daily Rundown: 6/21/10

CO-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) leading in their respective primaries. Bennet leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) 53% to 36% in the Democratic primary. Buck, an insurgent who is drawing support from the Tea Party movement, leads establishment favorite former Lt. Gov. Norton (R) 53% to 37% in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Buck leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 9 points. Norton leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 4.

CT-Sen: Investor Peter Schiff (R) collected enough signatures to get on the Republican primary ballot against former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP. Schiff, who was an economic advisor to Rep. Ron Paul's (R) 2008 presidential campaign, didn't get the support of the necessary 15% of delegates at the state GOP convention, which forced him to collect 8,268 signatures to qualify as an official Republican candidate. Schiff has strong libertarian leanings and will be the extreme underdog in the race against McMahon.

FL-Sen: A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) expanding his lead over Marco Rubio (R). While most previous polls have shown Crist with a small single-digit lead (if any at all), this one has him up by 11 points. Crist leads with 42%, while Rubio picks up 31% and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) receives 14% of the vote.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) is hitting back against Sen. Harry Reid's (D) volley of attacks with a new web ad called "Crickets." It charges Reid's attack ads as nothing more than distractions from his own unpopular record as senator and majority leader. It's worth a look.

UT-Sen: A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll released Saturday finds businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) with a narrow lead over attorney Mike Lee (R) in the GOP primary to replace Sen. Bob Bennett (R). Bridgewater, who has been endorsed by Bennett, leads Lee 42% to 33%. But that lead might not mean anything, seeing as 25% of GOP voters are still undecided. Voters go to the polls Tuesday, and most political observers are expecting this race to be very close.

AL-Gov: The results of the recount are in: businessman Tim James (R), who personally paid the $200,000 for the recount, actually lost by more than 200 votes to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), instead of the 167 vote deficit he had on election night. Bentley has now officially earned a spot in the GOP runoff against Bradley Byrne (R).

CO-Gov: That same Survey USA poll also took a look at the state's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, they found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leading Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) 57% to 29%. In general election match-ups, the poll found McInnis leading Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47% to 43%--while Maes led Hickenlooper 45% to 44%.

FL-Gov: That same Chamber of Commerce poll confirms what other recent polling has found: self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R) has jumped into the lead ahead of Attorney General Bill McCollum (R), 35% to 30%. McCollum, who has a reputation of being a lackluster candidate from a couple of previous statewide campaigns, needs to pick up the pace and find a coherent message while Scott floods the airwaves with ads.

SC-Gov: Politico reports that Mitt Romney has donated $42,000 to state Rep. Nikki Haley's (R) gubernatorial campaign. PACs are only allowed to donate $3,500 to a candidate per cycle, but Romney found a way around it: "With one federal PAC and five statewide PACs each maxing out at $3,500 for Haley in both the GOP primary and general elections, Romney has contributed a total of $42,000." Apparently, Romney really wants Haley to take the governor's mansion so he can cash in a few favors with her in the all-important South Carolina primary in 2012--especially since Haley and Palin appear to be very buddy-buddy these days.

NY-23: Here's some rare bad news for Republicans. The state Independence Party just endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R) for their ballot line. Meanwhile, the state Conservative Party has endorsed Doug Hoffman (R), who lost the special election in this district in 2009. Both Doheny and Hoffman are also running for the GOP nomination, so this means that whoever loses the GOP nomination could run on a third-party ballot line--effectively splitting the Republican vote and allowing freshman Rep. Bill Owens (D) a relatively easy path to reelection.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Rick Berg (R) leading Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 51% to 44% in the state's at-large congressional district. Their poll from last month showed Berg with a similar 9-point lead.

PA-03: The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List is targeting freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over her vote for the "pro-abortion" health care reform bill, even though Dahlkemper claims to be pro-life. They have pledged to throw $300,000 into the race to attack Dahlkemper and support her GOP rival, businessman Mike Kelly (R).

SC-01: Sarah Palin joined the House GOP leadership in endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott (R) ahead of his runoff against Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond. This is presumably because they want to have at least one African American in their caucus.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) leads retired teacher and activist Claudia Wright (D) 52% to 33% in the Democratic primary, according the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll mentioned above. This lead seems a bit small, seeing as he's outspending Wright 42-to-1 ahead of Tuesday's primary.

AR-02: Morrison Endorses Griffin

D.C. Morrison (D), a conservative Democrat who finished a surprisingly strong third place in last month's Senate Democratic primary, is endorsing former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin (R) over state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in Arkansas's 2nd district House race.

“I think he’s the best candidate,” said Morrison. “I just think Tim Griffin is much more in agreement with my views on fiscal responsibility.”

This comes as a tough blow to Elliott, a favorite among liberals who recently edged her more conservative rival, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D), in a runoff.

Morrison is starting up a "Democrats for Griffin" organization, and plans to campaign for him down the stretch.

Daily Rundown: 6/18/10

FL-Sen: Billionaire Jeff Greene (D) is up with an attack ad against primary rival Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) calling for an ethics investigation of Meek's ties to an indicted real estate developer...in the Washington, D.C. market. It looks like he's trying to persuade members of the House Ethics and Oversight Committee to take up the case (an extreme longshot), but wouldn't it have been a smarter move to air it in the state where all the voters are? But then again, he can probably afford both.

In other news, Marco Rubio (R) is facing foreclosure on a home in Tallahassee that he owns with state Rep. David Rivera (R), who is running for Congress in Florida's 25th district. Rubio's campaign said the issue has been resolved in court.

SC-Sen: The South Carolina Democratic Party rejected Vic Rawl's challenge to the results of the Democratic primary, finding no evidence of foulplay or malfunction. This means that Alvin Greene (D) will carry the Democratic torch against Sen. Jim DeMint (R) in the general election. Good luck with that.

MN-Gov: A new Survey USA poll shows likely GOP nominee state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) in a tight race with any of the top three Democrats running. Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads Emmer 38% to 35%, while Emmer edges state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) 35% to 33% and tops state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) 37% to 33%. In the Democratic primary, Dayton holds a 13-point lead over Kelliher, 39% to 26%, with Entenza trailing at 22%.

OK-Gov: A new Sooner poll finds Rep. Mary Fallin (R) in a strong position to take back the governor's mansion for the GOP this fall. She leads Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) 49% to 36%, and leads Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) 50% to 35%. The Democratic primary is about tied with Edmondson edging Askins, 37% to 36%.

TX-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) only slightly ahead of his Democratic rival, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D). Perry leads White 48% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race, from last month, showed Perry with a 13-point lead.

NC-02: Etheridge In Trouble

After Rep. Bob Etheridge (D) was caught on video assaulting a couple of college students for asking him some questions on the street, he now appears to be vulnerable for reelection.

A new poll from the Civitas Institute shows him trailing his virtually unknown challenger, Renee Ellmers (R), 39% to 38%.

As a result of this video going viral, Ellmers has also been added to "Contender" status in the NRCC's "Young Guns " recruitment program.

Now I'm taking this poll with a grain of salt, as Civitas is a known GOP pollster. I'm keeping my rating of this race as "Safe Democrat" for now, but I'll keep an eye on future developments and polls in this race, and a rating change is likely.

Daily Rundown: 6/17/10

AR-Sen: The first general election poll of this race comes from Rasmussen, and boy is it a doozy. It finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 29 points, 61% to 32%. The crazy thing is that this margin sounds about right. At this point, The Election Frontier is comfortable changing the rating of this race from Lean GOP to Likely GOP.

SC-Sen: Politico reports that former staffers of wealthy heiress Linda Ketner (D), who narrowly lost to Rep. Henry Brown (R) in 2008, "are mounting an effort to place her name on this year's Senate ballot as an independent candidate against Sen. Jim DeMint." She wants to be the "credible" candidate in the race after unknown unemployed veteran Alvin Greene (D) somehow won the Democratic nomination.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) is up with a new ad--in Spanish--touting her opposition to Arizona's immigration law. For those of you who remember the GOP gubernatorial primary, Whitman seemed to support the law by denying that she had any problems with it and airing an ad with the image of a border fence in it. Whether Latinos in California will buy this is an entirely different story.

MI-Gov: Apparently this is a hot race to poll. Yet another poll, this time from Inside Michigan Politics, finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) will a small lead over the rest of the GOP pack. He leads with 21%, followed by Rick Snyder with 15%, followed by Mike Cox and Mike Bouchard with 10%. These results are similar to a Magellan Strategies poll released yesterday, except this new poll finds there are a lot more undecideds out there.

AL-05: The wounds are starting to heal. House GOP leaders are now starting to get behind the campaign of Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who ousted party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the Republican primary earlier this month. Minority Leader John Boehner, Minority Whip Eric Cantor, and NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy--who all vocally supported Griffith in the primary--each gave a few thousand dollars to Brooks's campaign. He's also drawing some support from Alabama's congressional delegation, who also supported Griffith.

DE-AL: GOP activist Kevin Wade (R) is dropping out of the Republican primary, as he never seemed to catch on with the moderate Republicans of Delaware. That leaves businesswoman and philanthropist Michele Rollins (R) and developer Glen Urquhart (R)--who both have the ability to self-fund their candidacies--vying for the GOP nomination to take on former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) in the general election.

NC-08: The same PPP poll that came out two days ago showing former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) outperforming businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) in the general election also shows Johnson leading D'Annunzio in the runoff, 49% to 39%.

Daily Rundown: 6/16/10

FL-Sen: Politico reports that Florida Democratic leaders are beginning to entertain the possibility of backing Gov. Charlie Crist's independent Senate campaign in the general election (or at least sitting on the sidelines) if billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who apparently has a ton of baggage, wins the Democratic nomination. Crist, who was left for dead when he was a Republican running against Marco Rubio (R) in the GOP primary, has been actively courting Democrats and independents by darting to the left in recent weeks and might end up as the de facto Democratic nominee. What a turn-around.

NC-Sen: Progressive group MoveOn.org has endorsed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) over state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) ahead of the June 22 runoff. Cunningham is the favored candidate of the DSCC, which has donated almost $80,000 to his campaign.

WA-Sen: A new Elway poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) 47% to 40%. Murray also leads Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (R) 46% to 32% and bests businessman Paul Akers (R) 47% to 33%. Meanwhile, Didier made a trip to Washington to meet with RNC and NRSC officials, who were responsible for recruiting Rossi to begin with.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a dead heat in the Colorado gubernatorial contest. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leads Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 46% to 41%. They found Kasich with a similar lead in their poll from last month. Meanwhile, Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) is tied with Hickenlooper at 41%.

IL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Sen. Bill Brady (R) with a slight edge over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady leads Quinn 34% to 30%, with a large number of undecided voters. A Rasmussen poll from last week found Brady with an 11-point lead.

IA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) with a huge 26-point lead over sitting Gov. Chet Culver (D), 57% to 31%.

MI-Gov: A new survey from Magellan Strategies of the Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with a small lead over his rivals. Hoekstra leads with 26%, Rick Snyder takes 20%, Mike Cox takes 16%, and Mike Bouchard trails with 11%.

CT-04: Easton Selectman Tom Herrmann (R) is dropping out of the GOP primary in this district because of falsified names on his petition. That leaves businessmen Rob Merkle (R) and Rick Torres (R) as well as state Sen. Dan Debicella (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP, in the primary to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D) in the general election.

NH-01: Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (R) endorsed former RNC Committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) in the 1st district GOP primary over his predecessor, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R). This endorsement is really just symbolic, but it probably stings Guinta--who was recruited by the NRCC to run against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)--just the same.

NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller (R) is out with an internal poll showing him running only 12 points behind Rep. Heath Shuler (D), 46% to 34%. Shuler's $1,293,000 in cash-on-hand dwarfs Miller's $26,000 as of the end of the first quarter. But Miller's cash-strapped campaign may get a fundraising boost from the conservative organization Freedom Works, who has just endorsed his campaign.

OH-12: EMILY's List announced that they will endorse Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks (D) in her uphill battle to unseat Rep. Pat Tiberi (R). Brooks has already been endorsed by NARAL, another pro-abortion rights organization, and is a member of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" candidate recruitment program. Meanwhile, Tiberi was announced yesterday to be one of only nine Republican incumbents that the NRCC will continue to fundraise for. Might this be a rare opportunity for Democrats to play offense?

SD-AL: Noem Leads Herseth Sandlin

A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Kristi Noem (R) leading Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 53% to 41% in the race for South Dakota's at-large House seat.

This result seems a bit odd, as Noem is almost certainly a virtual unknown to most South Dakotans. But perhaps its a referendum of Herseth Sandlin herself, with Noem leading merely as a "Generic Republican."

The Election Frontier currently rates this race as "Likely Democrat."

NJ-06: Gooch Drops Recount Effort

Businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) announced today that she will not be seeking a recount in her campaign against Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the GOP primary in New Jersey's 6th congressional district.

Gooch finished just 84 votes behind Little in the initial vote count.

Now Little, who had the support of local tea party activists throughout the primary, will have the daunting task of taking on Rep. Frank Pallone (D) in the general election, who has a $4 million campaign warchest at his disposal.

IL-Sen: Kirk Rebuked, Room for 3rd Party

Rep. Mark Kirk (R), the GOP nominee for the state's open Senate seat, has been officially rebuked by the Pentagon. Here it is:

In December 2008, Commander Kirk, while on active duty, participated in video discussions in the media about the unfolding situation involving then-Governor Blagojevich of Illinois. Members of the Armed Forces on active duty may not participate in television discussions as an advocate for or against a partisan political party, candidate, or cause.

In July 2009, while on active duty in the Washington area, either Commander Kirk or a staff member posted a "twitter" to his Senate campaign web site that indicated he was on duty at the National Military Command Center. At the time, Commander Kirk was a candidate for the Senate. Candidates for political office may not participate in any campaign activities while on active duty. They may not update or revise their websites, and they must inform their campaign staff of the applicable restrictions....

Commander Kirk was counseled about each of his violations after they occurred and signed a statement acknowledging the limitations on his ability to participate in campaign activities while on active duty. He was required to complete this acknowledgment before being allowed to begin active duty in December 2009.

With Kirk's military service record mess and Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias' (D) controversy over his family's bank and his time as state treasurer, both party's nominees seem to be in big trouble.

A new PPP poll shows reflects voters' dissatisfaction with their choices. The poll finds two major party nominees picking up only 61% combined, with Giannoulias (D) edging Kirk (R) 31% to 30%. Meanwhile, Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones picks up 14% and 24% of voters are still undecided. Jones appears to take most of the third-party vote in this race (which is very high) even though no one really knows who he is.

This shows that there is a big opening for self-funding businessman Mike Niecestro, a former Republican, to launch an independent bid. He says he already has the 25,000 signatures needed and will loan his campaign at least $1 million in addition to the $100,000 he's already raised. This guy is not messing around.

With two of the major party nominees mired in controversy and two third-party candidates running at different ends of the spectrum, this race could shape up to be very interesting.

Daily Rundown: 6/15/10

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) is out with a new ad attacking primary rival former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) for being a lobbyist and for attacking McCain's record with the Navy without ever having served himself. Notice the hot-button issue of immigration was absent.

LA-Sen: Two new polls out in this race. A new poll from Magellan Strategies, a known GOP pollster, shows Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 20 points, 51% to 31%. But a new PPP poll shows Melancon down by just 9 points, 46% to 37%. These are the first polls that have been taken of the race since all of the drama with the Gulf Coast oil spill began. That may be a huge issue between the two candidates heading toward the general election.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) just gave another $20 million to her campaign, bringing her self-fund total to a whopping $90 million. She previously pledged to spend up to $150 million out of pocket to win gubernatorial election. In other news, the New York Times reports that during her time as CEO, Whitman paid a $200,000 settlement to an eBay employee for shoving her.

FL-Gov: An internal poll out for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) shows him tied at 40% with former health care executive Rick Scott (R). The most recent public poll from Quinnipiac showed Scott up by 13.

SC-Gov: Attorney General Henry McMaster (R), who finished third in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary last Tuesday, will endorse state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) for the Republican nomination. Most of the South Carolina GOP has rallied behind Haley now except for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who endorsed Haley's runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr (R) is out with an internal poll showing him within seven points of Rep. Ben Chandler (D). The poll found Chandler leading Barr 45% to 38%, but under the all-important 50% mark.

MS-01: An internal poll for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) shows him leading Rep. Travis Childers (D) 50% to 42%. It shows Nunnelee with a 44/8 favorable rating while Childers sits at 49/30.

NC-08: A new PPP poll shows former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) outperforming businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) against Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in the general election. Kissell bests D'Annunzio 48% to 26%, but only leads Johnson by six points, 41% to 35%.

Swing Districts: A new national NPR poll finds generic Republicans leading generic Democrats 49% to 41% in 70 battleground House districts across the country. Sixty of those seats are held by Democrats while only ten are held by Republicans. Before Republicans start to pop champagne and reclaim the House as a result of this poll, they should remember that Democrats have shown in the PA-12 special election that they can win local races with solid candidates focusing on local issues.

NRCC: Rep. Mike J. Rogers (R), who's in charge of the NRCC's incumbent retention program, urged GOP contributors to donate to just nine Republican incumbents who are at risk of losing their reelection bids. They are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), Charles Djou (HI-01), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Dave Reichert (WA-08).

Pretty solid list. The only two I would have added are Ken Calvert (CA-44)--but he looks like he's in pretty good shape--and Michele Bachmann (MN-06), but she is such a prodigious fundraiser that she doesn't need any outside help from NRCC.

Daily Rundown: 6/14/10

IL-Sen: Conservative businessman Mike Niecestro is reportedly mulling an independent run for the state's open Senate seat. Said Niecestro: "There is no difference between Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D)." He added: "I am a disgusted Republican who has had it with the people the party throws at us." He said that he would be willing to throw in $1 million out of his own pocket to boost his chances. Conventional wisdom is that if Niecestro joins the race, it could be a big boon to Giannoulias as he could siphon votes away on Kirk's right flank.

KY-Sen: The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Rand Paul (R) is not a board-certified ophthalmologist like he claims to be, and that he hasn't been for the past five years. Asked when he would comment on the issue, Paul responded: "Uh, you know, never... What does this have to do with our election?"

SC-Sen: Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D), the Democrat that was defeated by political unknown Alvin Greene (D) in Tuesday's primary, is calling for a formal investigation of the election results. He claims that investigation is not targeted against Greene, but rather against the touch-screen voting machines. White House adviser David Axelrod also weighed in on the situation, saying the result "doesn't appear" legitimate.

AL-Gov: As state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) pivots toward the July 13 runoff against former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R), he has started to shake up his staff and bring in former aides to Mike Huckabee (R). He hired Bryan Sanders, a top aide to Huckabee's 2008 presidential campaign, as his new campaign manager, among others.

FL-Gov: Mitt Romney will endorse and fundraise for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) in his primary battle against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Meanwhile, Scott has challenged McCollum to a series of four televised debates ahead of the August 24 primary.

MI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three of the top GOP contenders (Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Attorney Gen. Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder) leading both Democratic candidates (State House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero). Snyder still appears to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. Meanwhile, Cox picked up the endorsement of the anti-abortion group "Right to Life Michigan."

OH-Gov: Here's some good news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The NRA is endorsing him over former Rep. John Kasich (R) in his reelection bid.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) outperforming her runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), in general election match-ups with state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D). The poll finds Haley leading Sheheen by 21 points, while Barrett only leads by 8 points. Meanwhile, despite early whispers of her being whisked to the national stage, Haley is promising to serve a full term if elected.

AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber (R), the Tea Party favorite in the Alabama 2nd district runoff, is up with an...interesting new ad called "Gather Your Armies". You just have to see it for yourself. Barber will face Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite, in the July 13 runoff.