AR-Sen: The first general election poll of this race comes from Rasmussen, and boy is it a doozy. It finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 29 points, 61% to 32%. The crazy thing is that this margin sounds about right. At this point, The Election Frontier is comfortable changing the rating of this race from Lean GOP to Likely GOP.
SC-Sen: Politico reports that former staffers of wealthy heiress Linda Ketner (D), who narrowly lost to Rep. Henry Brown (R) in 2008, "are mounting an effort to place her name on this year's Senate ballot as an independent candidate against Sen. Jim DeMint." She wants to be the "credible" candidate in the race after unknown unemployed veteran Alvin Greene (D) somehow won the Democratic nomination.
CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) is up with a new ad--in Spanish--touting her opposition to Arizona's immigration law. For those of you who remember the GOP gubernatorial primary, Whitman seemed to support the law by denying that she had any problems with it and airing an ad with the image of a border fence in it. Whether Latinos in California will buy this is an entirely different story.
MI-Gov: Apparently this is a hot race to poll. Yet another poll, this time from Inside Michigan Politics, finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) will a small lead over the rest of the GOP pack. He leads with 21%, followed by Rick Snyder with 15%, followed by Mike Cox and Mike Bouchard with 10%. These results are similar to a Magellan Strategies poll released yesterday, except this new poll finds there are a lot more undecideds out there.
AL-05: The wounds are starting to heal. House GOP leaders are now starting to get behind the campaign of Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who ousted party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the Republican primary earlier this month. Minority Leader John Boehner, Minority Whip Eric Cantor, and NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy--who all vocally supported Griffith in the primary--each gave a few thousand dollars to Brooks's campaign. He's also drawing some support from Alabama's congressional delegation, who also supported Griffith.
DE-AL: GOP activist Kevin Wade (R) is dropping out of the Republican primary, as he never seemed to catch on with the moderate Republicans of Delaware. That leaves businesswoman and philanthropist Michele Rollins (R) and developer Glen Urquhart (R)--who both have the ability to self-fund their candidacies--vying for the GOP nomination to take on former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) in the general election.
NC-08: The same PPP poll that came out two days ago showing former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) outperforming businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) in the general election also shows Johnson leading D'Annunzio in the runoff, 49% to 39%.
Showing posts with label AL-05. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AL-05. Show all posts
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Monday, June 7, 2010
Daily Rundown: 6/7/10
FL-Sen: A lawyer for former state GOP chairman Jim Greer said this past weekend that Gov. Charlie Crist (I) signed off on a deal that allowed Greer--who's under investigation for criminal fraud among other things during his time as chairman--and his associates "to steer party money into consulting contracts that benefited them personally." Crist has denied all of the accusations, saying he was oblivious to all of Greer's criminal actions as chairman. Not only is this a major campaign problem for him, but also potentially a criminal one should Greer decide to bring Crist down with him.
OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a dead heat for the state's open Senate seat, each picking up 43% of likely voters. This is virtually unchanged from their survey from last month, which had Fisher up by a point.
IA-Gov: A new Des Moines Register poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad way out in front of his rivals for the GOP nomination. Branstad leads conservative underdog Bob Vander Plaats 57% to 29%. These findings are at odds with a few previous polls, which had shown the race tightening up.
SC-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) unscathed by the multiple allegations of extramarital affairs. Haley leads the pack for the GOP nomination with 43%, followed by 23% for Rep. Gresham Barrett, 16% for Attorney General Henry McMaster, and 12% for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer. Haley still has a strong favorable rating at 58-23, and GOP voters don't think the allegations are true by a 54-13 margin. At this point, a runoff seems likely between Haley and either Barrett or McMaster, who was just endorsed by Rudy Giuliani. But I'm not sure how much weight that endorsement has, given that Giuliani's a northeast moderate who finished sixth in the state's 2008 presidential primary.
AL-05: The NRCC appears to be warming up to Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who unseated party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the GOP primary. They have officially anointed him a "Young Gun", which is their top recruitment status.
MN-06: Physician Maureen Reed (D) dropped out of the race to take on conservative firebrand Rep. Michele Bachmann (R), clearing the path for state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) to take the Democratic nomination. Reed offered a whole-hearted endorsement for Clark, citing that a "prolonged primary fight only assists Michele Bachmann" in getting reelected. So far, Clark has proved to be a fantastic fundraiser: she raised $513,000 in the first quarter and has $601,000 in cash-on-hand. That's very important because Bachmann, being the outspoken controversial conservative that she is, is one of the best fundraising incumbents in the country.
PA-06: The NRCC is playing some defense for once by enrolling Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in their "Patriot" program, which is designed to protect vulnerable Republican incumbents. Gerlach survived the 2008 Democratic surge, but he still appears to be vulnerable despite the national GOP advantage this time around. He only won the seat by four points in 2008 and Barack Obama carried the district by 17 points. Gerlach will face Iraq War veteran and physician Manan Trivedi (D) in the general election.
SC-04: PPP also polled the GOP primary in the 4th, where Rep. Bob Inglis (R)--who has a conservative voting record besides his TARP vote--is struggling to survive an attack from his right. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) leads Inglis 37% to 33%, and a runoff seems likely.
OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a dead heat for the state's open Senate seat, each picking up 43% of likely voters. This is virtually unchanged from their survey from last month, which had Fisher up by a point.
IA-Gov: A new Des Moines Register poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad way out in front of his rivals for the GOP nomination. Branstad leads conservative underdog Bob Vander Plaats 57% to 29%. These findings are at odds with a few previous polls, which had shown the race tightening up.
SC-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) unscathed by the multiple allegations of extramarital affairs. Haley leads the pack for the GOP nomination with 43%, followed by 23% for Rep. Gresham Barrett, 16% for Attorney General Henry McMaster, and 12% for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer. Haley still has a strong favorable rating at 58-23, and GOP voters don't think the allegations are true by a 54-13 margin. At this point, a runoff seems likely between Haley and either Barrett or McMaster, who was just endorsed by Rudy Giuliani. But I'm not sure how much weight that endorsement has, given that Giuliani's a northeast moderate who finished sixth in the state's 2008 presidential primary.
AL-05: The NRCC appears to be warming up to Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who unseated party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the GOP primary. They have officially anointed him a "Young Gun", which is their top recruitment status.
MN-06: Physician Maureen Reed (D) dropped out of the race to take on conservative firebrand Rep. Michele Bachmann (R), clearing the path for state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) to take the Democratic nomination. Reed offered a whole-hearted endorsement for Clark, citing that a "prolonged primary fight only assists Michele Bachmann" in getting reelected. So far, Clark has proved to be a fantastic fundraiser: she raised $513,000 in the first quarter and has $601,000 in cash-on-hand. That's very important because Bachmann, being the outspoken controversial conservative that she is, is one of the best fundraising incumbents in the country.
PA-06: The NRCC is playing some defense for once by enrolling Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in their "Patriot" program, which is designed to protect vulnerable Republican incumbents. Gerlach survived the 2008 Democratic surge, but he still appears to be vulnerable despite the national GOP advantage this time around. He only won the seat by four points in 2008 and Barack Obama carried the district by 17 points. Gerlach will face Iraq War veteran and physician Manan Trivedi (D) in the general election.
SC-04: PPP also polled the GOP primary in the 4th, where Rep. Bob Inglis (R)--who has a conservative voting record besides his TARP vote--is struggling to survive an attack from his right. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) leads Inglis 37% to 33%, and a runoff seems likely.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
District Profile: AL-05
After getting elected to Congress as a Democrat, freshman Rep. Parker Griffith defected and joined the Republican Party in December 2009.
But while he was welcomed with open arms by Washington Republicans and the Alabama GOP congressional delegation (who helped his raise a ton of money), Republican voters in his district weren't so eager to embrace him.
Griffith was ousted in the Republican primary by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, who was significantly outspent by Griffith. Brooks painted Griffith as untrustworthy, and it seemed to catch on with voters in the 5th district.
Brooks will start out as the favorite against Democratic nominee Steve Raby, a former chief of staff to former Democratic Sen. Howell Heflin, in November. This conservative-leaning district went for John McCain 61% to 38% in 2008.
PVI: R+12
Mo Brooks: Raised $41,000 in Q1; $214,000 cash-on-hand
Steve Raby: Raised $185,000 in Q1; $186,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely GOP
But while he was welcomed with open arms by Washington Republicans and the Alabama GOP congressional delegation (who helped his raise a ton of money), Republican voters in his district weren't so eager to embrace him.
Griffith was ousted in the Republican primary by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, who was significantly outspent by Griffith. Brooks painted Griffith as untrustworthy, and it seemed to catch on with voters in the 5th district.
Brooks will start out as the favorite against Democratic nominee Steve Raby, a former chief of staff to former Democratic Sen. Howell Heflin, in November. This conservative-leaning district went for John McCain 61% to 38% in 2008.
PVI: R+12
Mo Brooks: Raised $41,000 in Q1; $214,000 cash-on-hand
Steve Raby: Raised $185,000 in Q1; $186,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely GOP
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Party-Switching Griffith Rejected by Voters
Rep. Parker Griffith, a Democrat-turned-Republican, was beat soundly by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks in the GOP primary in Alabama's 5th congressional district last night.
While Griffith's party switch was welcomed by Washington Republicans, Alabamans were clearly more skeptical of his motives. And even though Griffith spent more than $50 per vote, the voters' mistrust proved to be too much.
Brooks narrowly avoided a runoff, beating Griffith 51% to 33%. Brooks will be the favorite heading into the general election where he will face off against political consultant Steve Raby (D).
Griffith became the fourth incumbent congressman to lose his seat in a primary, following in the footsteps of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), and fellow party-switcher Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA).
Meanwhile in the 2nd district, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, the GOP establishment favorite, will face off against Tea Party-backed businessman Rick Barber in a July 13 runoff. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in November.
In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) will face Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) in a runoff as well.
And over in Mississippi, "Young Gun" GOP establishment favorite state Sen. Alan Nunnelee narrowly avoided a runoff in the 1st district, defeating former Europa Mayor Henry Ross and former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan (who was backed by Sarah Palin). Nunnelee will take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general, which I currently rate as a Tossup.
While Griffith's party switch was welcomed by Washington Republicans, Alabamans were clearly more skeptical of his motives. And even though Griffith spent more than $50 per vote, the voters' mistrust proved to be too much.
Brooks narrowly avoided a runoff, beating Griffith 51% to 33%. Brooks will be the favorite heading into the general election where he will face off against political consultant Steve Raby (D).
Griffith became the fourth incumbent congressman to lose his seat in a primary, following in the footsteps of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), and fellow party-switcher Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA).
Meanwhile in the 2nd district, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, the GOP establishment favorite, will face off against Tea Party-backed businessman Rick Barber in a July 13 runoff. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in November.
In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) will face Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) in a runoff as well.
And over in Mississippi, "Young Gun" GOP establishment favorite state Sen. Alan Nunnelee narrowly avoided a runoff in the 1st district, defeating former Europa Mayor Henry Ross and former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan (who was backed by Sarah Palin). Nunnelee will take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general, which I currently rate as a Tossup.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
June 1 Primaries: What to Watch For
Voters in Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico will head to the polls today to select their party's nominees for a few important House and gubernatorial races. Here are the rundowns on the key races to keep your eye on:
AL-Gov: Both the Democratic and Republican races should be relatively close tonight. On the Democratic side, Rep. Artur Davis--a centrist who voted against health care reform and the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"--is the frontrunner with Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks running to his left. Polls show Sparks gaining on Davis due to his support from unions and improved fundraising, which has caused the Davis campaign to turn negative in the home stretch. If Davis wins the nomination, he could become Alabama's first black governor.
On the Republican side, it's a wide-open race. Former state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne seems to be narrowly leading the pack, followed by former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (famous for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the state courthouse), who has strong ties to the Tea Party movement. Also running are wealthy real estate developer Tim James, state Rep. Robert Bentley, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, and Bill Johnson. With so many candidates in such a wide-open race, a runoff appears likely (you need 50% of the vote to get the nomination). For more info on these races, check out this article.
AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) appears to be the favorite in the GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in the fall. Roby's entrance in the race was welcomed by the Washington GOP establishment and NRCC, who dubbed her a member of their "Young Gun" recruiting program. Tea Party favorite businessman Rick Barber is Roby's main competition, but the results of this crowded primary could also result in a runoff.
AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith, who switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party in December of last year in an act of political expediency, faces the voters for the first time as a Republican. He's in a competitive three-way GOP primary with Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (who has run a strong campaign) and businessman Les Phillip. Griffith has been backed by the GOP establishment and the state's congressional delegation and spent a lot of money in the race to keep his job. But Brooks has benefited from the endorsements of the local Republican leadership, Tea Party, and the Griffith's 2008 Republican opponent; and from the general distrust of the party-switching congressman. Griffith needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which is looking increasingly unlikely (if he even manages to be in the top two). Griffith is trying to fend off the national and local anti-incumbent wave and avoid an Arlen Specter-like fate.
AL-07: In the race to replace Davis, attorney Terri Sewell appears to have a slight lead over Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot and former state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. in the Democratic primary. A runoff also appears likely here, but it's not clear which two will qualify. This seat is solidly Democratic, so the winner of the primary will almost certainly win in November.
MS-01: The only race worth watching in Mississippi tonight is the GOP primary to take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the 1st district. Childers won the seat in a 2008 special election that dealt a huge blow to the NRCC, so they are intent on getting the seat back. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (the national GOP favorite and another "Young Gun") appears to be the frontrunner, but faces a strong challenger in former Europa Mayor Henry Ross, who's gained momentum in recent weeks due to his support from the local Tea Party. Also running--but losing steam--is former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan. Yet another runoff seems likely, this time pitting Nunnelee against Ross.
NM-Gov: In the Republican primary, Santa Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez has been leading former state GOP chair Allen Weh by about 10 points in recent polls. Also running but farther behind are businessman Doug Turner, businessman Pete Domenici Jr. (son of former Sen. Pete Domenici), and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. The winner will take on Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the general election. Polls show Martinez to be the strongest general election candidate.
NM-01: It looks like Latino businessman Jon Barela, also a "Young Gun," will get the GOP nod to take on freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in this 43% Latino district centered around Albuquerque.
NM-02: And finally, freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D) appears poised to take on former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), yet another "Young Gun" who is running virtually unopposed in the GOP primary. Pearce left this seat to run an ultimately unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2008, and now wants it back.
Polls close at 8PM eastern in Alabama and Mississippi and 9PM in New Mexico.
AL-Gov: Both the Democratic and Republican races should be relatively close tonight. On the Democratic side, Rep. Artur Davis--a centrist who voted against health care reform and the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"--is the frontrunner with Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks running to his left. Polls show Sparks gaining on Davis due to his support from unions and improved fundraising, which has caused the Davis campaign to turn negative in the home stretch. If Davis wins the nomination, he could become Alabama's first black governor.
On the Republican side, it's a wide-open race. Former state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne seems to be narrowly leading the pack, followed by former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (famous for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the state courthouse), who has strong ties to the Tea Party movement. Also running are wealthy real estate developer Tim James, state Rep. Robert Bentley, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, and Bill Johnson. With so many candidates in such a wide-open race, a runoff appears likely (you need 50% of the vote to get the nomination). For more info on these races, check out this article.
AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) appears to be the favorite in the GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in the fall. Roby's entrance in the race was welcomed by the Washington GOP establishment and NRCC, who dubbed her a member of their "Young Gun" recruiting program. Tea Party favorite businessman Rick Barber is Roby's main competition, but the results of this crowded primary could also result in a runoff.
AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith, who switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party in December of last year in an act of political expediency, faces the voters for the first time as a Republican. He's in a competitive three-way GOP primary with Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (who has run a strong campaign) and businessman Les Phillip. Griffith has been backed by the GOP establishment and the state's congressional delegation and spent a lot of money in the race to keep his job. But Brooks has benefited from the endorsements of the local Republican leadership, Tea Party, and the Griffith's 2008 Republican opponent; and from the general distrust of the party-switching congressman. Griffith needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which is looking increasingly unlikely (if he even manages to be in the top two). Griffith is trying to fend off the national and local anti-incumbent wave and avoid an Arlen Specter-like fate.
AL-07: In the race to replace Davis, attorney Terri Sewell appears to have a slight lead over Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot and former state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. in the Democratic primary. A runoff also appears likely here, but it's not clear which two will qualify. This seat is solidly Democratic, so the winner of the primary will almost certainly win in November.
MS-01: The only race worth watching in Mississippi tonight is the GOP primary to take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the 1st district. Childers won the seat in a 2008 special election that dealt a huge blow to the NRCC, so they are intent on getting the seat back. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (the national GOP favorite and another "Young Gun") appears to be the frontrunner, but faces a strong challenger in former Europa Mayor Henry Ross, who's gained momentum in recent weeks due to his support from the local Tea Party. Also running--but losing steam--is former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan. Yet another runoff seems likely, this time pitting Nunnelee against Ross.
NM-Gov: In the Republican primary, Santa Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez has been leading former state GOP chair Allen Weh by about 10 points in recent polls. Also running but farther behind are businessman Doug Turner, businessman Pete Domenici Jr. (son of former Sen. Pete Domenici), and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. The winner will take on Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the general election. Polls show Martinez to be the strongest general election candidate.
NM-01: It looks like Latino businessman Jon Barela, also a "Young Gun," will get the GOP nod to take on freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in this 43% Latino district centered around Albuquerque.
NM-02: And finally, freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D) appears poised to take on former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), yet another "Young Gun" who is running virtually unopposed in the GOP primary. Pearce left this seat to run an ultimately unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2008, and now wants it back.
Polls close at 8PM eastern in Alabama and Mississippi and 9PM in New Mexico.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)