Daily Rundown: 8/3/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R)--who's looking more and more likely to crush former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP primary--leading likely Democratic nominee Rodney Glassman (D) by 19 points, 53% to 34%. If Hayworth is the GOP nominee, he trails Glassman by five points, 43% to 38%. Current rating: Safe Republican.

CO-Sen: It's no secret that Andrew Romanoff's (D) campaign has been having some money issues. Romanoff has long trailed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in fundraising and recently sold his house to get some extra money for the homestretch to the Democratic primary. Now that it seems more plausible that he could win the nomination, many Colorado Democrats were concerned about his less-than-formidable fundraising prowess, especially since he took a pledge that he wouldn't take any money from PACs. But luckily for them, Romanoff has agreed to take money from the DSCC, which takes money from PACs--which he also said he wouldn't do back in January. Win some lose some, Romanoff. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KS-Sen: Survey USA is out with a late-breaking poll showing Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) by 10 points, 49% to 39%. But Tiahrt has slowly but surely gained ground on Moran since May, although Survey USA is the only pollster to test the race. The primary is today.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) edging Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by just two points, 39% to 37%, with 7% for Libertarian Michael Beitler. Their last poll of the race, from June, found Burr up by five points. The only thing that's changed since then is that Marshall has begun to consolidate support among Democrats. Still, there are a huge number of undecided voters because many North Carolinians just haven't paid any attention to the race yet. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by three points, 49% to 46%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: Rasmussen basically confirmed what Survey USA found yesterday: John Hickenlooper is the luckiest candidate this cycle. Their new poll also finds that Tom Tancredo's third-party candidacy is hurting both potential GOP nominees. Hickenlooper leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) and Tancredo by 19 points, 43-25-24. And he leads Dan Maes (R) by 15 points, 42-27-24.

CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Romanoff, Meas Take Leads

Survey USA poll came out with a new poll this weekend that finds challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) has snatched the lead from Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Senate Democratic primary.

Romanoff--who just sold his house to keep his campaign afloat--edges Bennet 48% to 45%, according to the poll. Six weeks ago, Survey USA found Bennet with a 17-point lead over Romanoff. This is the first time we've ever seen Romanoff ahead in a public poll.

Bennet's campaign responded with an internal poll showing him up 41% to 37%, and if the incumbent's campaign--which has been leading all along--is putting out an internal poll showing a close race, you know it's going to be close. And Romanoff is surging at the right time because voters go the polls a week from tomorrow.

In the Republican primary, Ken Buck (R) leads Jane Norton (R) 50% to 41%, and still looks to be the solid favorite for the GOP nomination.

In general election match-ups, Buck is tied with Romanoff at 44% and ties Bennet at 43%. Norton leads Romanoff by five points but trails Bennet by three.

Now, over to the state's exciting governor's race, where Survey USA is the first pollster to put a poll into the field since former Rep. Tom Tancredo joined the race as a third-party candidate.

But first, there's been some serious movement in the Republican primary. Six weeks ago, Survey USA found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) to be leading Dan Maes (R) by 28 points, 57% to 29%. Now, after McInnis's campaign has imploded as a result of multiple counts of plagiarism coming to light, Maes now leads McInnis by four points, 43% to 39%.

For the general election, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leads McInnis by five points, 48% to 43%, when its just the two of them in the race. But if Tancredo joins the mix, Hickenlooper's lead jumps to 18.

When it's just Hickenlooper vs. Maes, the Democrat leads by nine points, 50% to 41%. But when Survey USA includes Tancredo, Hickenlooper leads by a whopping 22 points.

So yeah, the conventional wisdom that Tom Tancredo is hurting GOP chances at victory in this race happens to be spot on.

Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/27/10

CA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%. According to the poll, independents have dashed away from Fiorina back toward Boxer, which essentially what puts Boxer in the lead. Most other public polls have found a much closer race, and some have even given Fiorina the lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates with small leads over both Democrats. Ken Buck (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D) by six points. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads Bennet by nine, and bests Romanoff by four. Meanwhile, Romanoff is selling his house and loaning his campaign $325,000 to go "all-in" in his insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. Courageous move or act of desperation? I'm betting on the latter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with a new poll that finds that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte (R) may have backfired. She has her smallest lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to date, besting him by just three points, 45% to 42%. While shoring up her Republican base, she seems to have lost moderates in the process--seemingly in part because of Palin' endorsement. In April, Hodes led Ayotte by just 8 points among moderates, and now he's up by 21 points--and her favorability among that group has plummeted. Meanwhile, self-funding businessman Bill Binnie (R) leads Hodes by six points, Hodes leads Jim Bender (R) by one point and Ovide Lamontagne (R) by 5. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by seven points, 44% to 37%, with 15% undecided. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you release an internal poll showing you losing to a virtual unknown candidate. State Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) released an internal poll showing him trailing Rick Scott (R) by six points, 37% to 31%. Most public polling shows Scott with a much larger lead.

MD-Gov: A new Gonzales Research poll finds sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%--within the poll's margin of error. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (R) by three points, 47% to 44%--virtually unchanged from their June poll of the race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NM-01: A new Survey USA poll finds businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) by six points, 51% to 45%. But there's a red flag here, as it seems pretty unlikely that only 4% of voters are undecided this far out from the election. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/26/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) comfortably ahead of former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP Senate primary, 54% to 34%. Their poll from June only gave McCain an 11-point lead, showing McCain's negative ad blitz (and $16 million total expenditure) has seemed to work.

CO-Sen: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), long considered to be the Tea Party favorite in the race, is apologizing for some disparaging marks he made about the Tea Party movement. Here's the original quote from Buck: "Will you tell those dumbasses at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera? God, what am I supposed to do?" It probably won't be anything big, just an unforced error for the new GOP frontrunner. In other news, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed Jane Norton (R) over Buck in the GOP primary, giving her some anti-illegal immigration bona fides going forward. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six points, 48% to 42%. Rasmussen has been the only other pollster to test this race, and they have consistently found small leads for Blunt (usually within the margin of error). While Blunt appears to have the slight edge right now, we still rate this as a Toss-Up.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post is reporting that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) is following through on last week's threat to launch a third party bid after neither flawed GOP candidate got out of the race. Conventional wisdom is that the fiercely conservative and anti-illegal immigration Tancredo will split votes with the eventual Republican nominee in the general election and give Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) a clear path to victory. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

GA-Gov: The National Rifle Association is backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. That might help him to slowly close Karen Handel's (R) 11-point lead from the primary.

OK-Gov: A new Sooner poll finds Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) leading Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) by 16 points in the Democratic primary, 49% to 33%. In June, they found a tied race. The primary is on Tuesday. In general election match-ups, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) leads Edmondson by 8 points and Askins by 6 points--but is still under the 50% mark, meaning she is still very beatable.

TN-Gov: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds that Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is still the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. He leads Rep. Zach Wamp (R) 36% to 25%, with Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R) in third at 20%. In an attempt to shake up the race, Wamp has brought up the idea that Tennessee "may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates." The secession talk, of course, was initiated by Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) last year--and that strategy worked for him in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Haslam leads businessman Mike McWherter (D) by 18 points, Wamp bests him by 7 points, and Ramsey edges him by 5.

NY-13: Sen. John McCain (R) is endorsing former FBI agent Michael Grimm (R) in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Mike McMahon (D). Grimm is considered to be the stronger general election candidate and has the backing of the Conservative Party, but attorney Michael Allegretti (R) has the support of the Staten Island GOP. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) trailing state Rep. Rick Berg (R) by only three points, 46% to 49%. Their poll from last month found Berg up by 7 points, and even more before that. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 7/13/10

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both GOP candidates, Ken Buck (R) and Jane Norton (R), with small leads over their potential Democratic rivals, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D). Buck leads Bennet by 9 points and bests Romanoff by 5. Norton leads Bennet by 7 points and tops Romanoff by 2. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

FL-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) leading Marco Rubio (R) and both potential Democratic candidates, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and billionaire Jeff Greene (D). When matched up against Meek, Crist leads the pack with 35%, while Rubio has 28% and Meek takes 17%. When matched up against Greene, Crist leads with 34% while Rubio takes 29% and Greene takes 18%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Rubio with a slight lead over Crist. Meanwhile, Rubio set a fundraising record for the 2010 cycle, bringing in $4.5 million last quarter. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sharron Angle (R) leading Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) by only three points. Their poll of the race from last month found Angle up by 7 points, and their poll from right after the GOP primary found her up by 11. The Election Frontier currently rates this as a Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will appoint an interim senator to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) on Friday by 5 PM.

FL-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll finds state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by one point. When matched up against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R), she trails by three points.

GA-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) leading the pack for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Handel takes 32%, while state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) and Rep. Nathan Deal (R) are tied for second with 18%. Polls have been all over the place in this race, but this is the first poll with Handel in the lead--fresh off Sarah Palin's endorsement and some seeming gender-motivated momentum.

MD-Gov: A new PPP poll finds incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%.

PA-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (D) leading Dan Onorato (D) by only seven points, 44% to 37%. The last two poll from this race have found Corbett up by 10 points, a comfortable lead but not out of striking distance, especially since Onorato has shown some fundraising prowess.

MN-06: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) leading state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) by nine points, 48% to 39%. The most striking cross-tab is the gender divide: Bachmann leads Clark by 25 points while Clark carries a majority of women. This is sure to be one of the most expensive races in the country, as the conservative firebrand Bachmann reported raising an astonishing $1.7 million in the second quarter and Clark also raised an impressive $910,000.

TN-09: President Obama endorsed Rep. Steve Cohen (D) in Tennessee's Memphis-based 9th district today. Cohen also received support from several members of the congressional black caucus. Cohen, who is white, is facing a primary challenge from former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton (D), who is black. Herenton's entire campaign message has been centered entirely (and unabashedly) around race.

Highlights From the 4th of July Recess

Well, I'm back from a week-long 4th of July vacation. Apparently I didn't miss a whole lot, but here's some of the highlights.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A Survey USA poll in California found Carly Fiorina (R) and Meg Whitman (R) leading their Democratic rivals in the state's senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively, for the first time. Other polls have shown both races tightening up as well.

CA-Sen, MO-Sen, NV-Sen: President Obama went to Missouri and Nevada to stump for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), respectively. Vice President Biden went to California to help Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) fundraise.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) was endorsed by Dick Armey's Freedom Works PAC as he continues to show signs of locking up the GOP nomination over the establishment favorite, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R).

IL-Sen: A Rasmussen poll found Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by one point.

KY-Sen: A PPP poll found Rand Paul (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) tied at 43%.

NV-Sen: In Nevada, Sharron Angle (R) is threatening to take legal action against Harry Reid's (D) campaign for resurrecting her much more right-wing website from when she was running in the GOP primary.

WV-Sen: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is planning on moving the special election for the state's open senate seat to this November instead of 2012. A Rasmussen poll gives Manchin a 14-point lead over potential rival Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Daily Rundown: 7/2/10

CO-Sen: As President Obama heads to Missouri for Robin Carnahan (D) and Nevada for Harry Reid (D), and as Vice President Joe Biden stumps for Barbara Boxer (D) in California over the July 4 recess, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)--who's become a primaries kingmaker for conservatives/Tea Partiers--will stump for Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) in Colorado. Buck is trying to keep his image of a conservative insurgent going as gears up for the home stretch of the GOP primary, where he faces establishment favorite Jane Norton (R), a former lieutenant governor.

IL-Sen: Now that the second financial quarter is officially over, I'll be posting a summary of all the major candidates' fundraising and cash-on-hand totals once they all come out. But until then, I'll leak some of the info ahead of time, like this. Despite all of the controversy for embellishing his military credentials and past as a teacher, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) had another strong quarter. He pulled in $2.3 million (which is a hundred thousand more than last quarter) and now has $4 million in the bank.

KS-Sen: Another stop on Sen. Jim DeMint's (R) July 4 recess road trip: Kansas. He'll be stumping for Rep. Jerry Moran (R) as he tries to out-conservative his primary opponent, Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R), who has recently been endorsed by Sarah Palin. It's the battle of the conservative king (or queen) makers.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, almost doubling his haul from the first quarter. His spokesman refused to say how much cash the campaign has on hand.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 43% to 39%. Most other recent polls of the race have shown Fisher up by a few points, and our average shows Fisher with a 0.2% lead. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

MD-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) three points ahead over sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), 46% to 43%. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

WI-Gov: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will stump and raise money for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's (D) campaign for governor. Barrett is a member of Bloomberg's Mayors Against Illegal Guns coalition. Barrett could certainly use the help as he has been lagging in the polls against both potential Republican nominees, Scott Walker (R) and Mark Neumann (R).

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) raised $101,000 from May 13 to June 23, and now has $112,000 in the bank. But before she gets to use that cash to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D), she has to fend off a challenge from businessman Rick Barber (R) in a July 13 runoff. The NRCC clearly favors Roby in the race (she's a "Young Gun") while Barber has done all he can to consolidate the Tea Party movement. Barber raised only $49,000 in that same period and has only $25,000 in cash on hand. But then again, he also has this ad at his disposal. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

SC-05: The NRCC is up with a new ad attacking Rep. John Spratt (D), the chairman of the House Budget Committee, for failing to pass a budget. This is a win-win situation for the GOP, because if the Democrats don't pass a budget, then they look inept at leading. But if they do pass a budget, there will likely be huge deficits that Republican candidates can use to say that Democrats' spending has gotten out of control. Spratt has a strong challenger this cycle in state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The Election Frontier currently rates this race: Lean DEM.

AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is targeting a handful of Republican Senate candidates and House incumbents over the July 4 recess for their votes against card-check legislation, the jobs bill and Wall Street reform. The Senate targets are: Rep. Mark Kirk (IL), Rep. Roy Blunt (R), and Rep. Mike Castle (R). The House targets are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Charlie Dent (PA-15).

DGA: One day after their Republican counterparts announced raising a whopping $19 million in the second quarter, the Democratic Governors Association announced--conveniently right before the holiday weekend--that they raised only $9.1 million over the same period of time. The RGA has $40 million in the bank to the DGA's $22 million. DGA officials are making the case that "the RGA’s coffers have benefited from the troubles that have roiled the Republican National Committee." This may actually have some merit, as the national, Senate, and House Democratic committees have thus far outraised their GOP counterparts.

Wall Street Reform: In case you were wondering, here's a list of the 3 Republicans and 19 Democrats that voted against their parties on the financial reform legislation that was passed on Wednesday. The Republicans who voted "yes" are: Mike Castle (DE-AL, running for Senate), Joseph Cao (LA-02), and Walter Jones (NC-03). The Democrats who voted "no" are basically a who's who of vulnerable incumbents and Blue Dogs: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Marion Berry (AR-01, retiring), Mike Ross (AR-04), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Travis Childers (MS-01), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Bill Owens (NY-23), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Dan Boren (OK-02), Mark Critz (PA-12), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Jim Cooper (TN-05), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-05), and Rick Boucher (VA-09). The bill now moves to the Senate, where things will get a bit trickier for Democrats.

Daily Rundown: 6/30/10

CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.

CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."

IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.

OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.

CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.

HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.

ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.

WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.

LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.

Daily Rundown: 6/28/10

CO-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) in the Senate GOP primary, citing her as the more electable general election candidate. This could potentially help Norton shift back the momentum of the race to her after her Tea Party-backed opponent, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), has led by double-digits in recent polling.

IL-Sen: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias's (D) respite from media criticism following Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) long line of mistakes and gaffes appears to be over. He has been subpoenaed in former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's trial.

IA-Sen: EMILY's List, a group that raises money for pro-choice female candidates, has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) in her underdog bid against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). Polls have been all over the place in this race--some showing her down by single digits and others showing her down by more than 20 points. But this endorsement will definitely give Conlin a financial boost (even though she has her own money to pour into the race) as she takes on the entrenched Republican incumbent.

KS-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in the Senate GOP primary by 20 points, 53% to 33%. Looks like Sarah Palin needs to come stump for Tiahrt sooner rather than later.

SC-Sen: South Carolina law enforcement officials will investigate if any laws were broken with the way that Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene (D) has been representing his personal finances. The focus will probably be on how collected the $10,400 to pay the filing fee to run for Senate while he couldn't even afford to hire a lawyer for the felony obscenity charges he faces.

FL-Gov: Newt Gingrich is the latest Republican to endorse Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) gubernatorial campaign, as he fends off a challenge from self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush were the last two big-name Republicans to endorse McCollum. Meanwhile, Bud Chiles (I) is refusing to drop out of the race despite complaints from Democrats that his candidacy will siphon off votes from state CFO Alex Sink (D) and allow a Republican victory.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race found Haley up by 21 points, but that can be attributed to the large post-primary-victory bumps that Rasmussen has consistently found for candidates of both parties across the country.

MS-01: Following an endorsement from the National Rifle Association last week, Rep. Travis Childers (D) now has the backing of National Right to Life, an anti-abortion organization. It looks like Childers is winning the early battle to establish conservative bona fides in his race against state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/21/10

CO-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) leading in their respective primaries. Bennet leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) 53% to 36% in the Democratic primary. Buck, an insurgent who is drawing support from the Tea Party movement, leads establishment favorite former Lt. Gov. Norton (R) 53% to 37% in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Buck leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 9 points. Norton leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 4.

CT-Sen: Investor Peter Schiff (R) collected enough signatures to get on the Republican primary ballot against former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP. Schiff, who was an economic advisor to Rep. Ron Paul's (R) 2008 presidential campaign, didn't get the support of the necessary 15% of delegates at the state GOP convention, which forced him to collect 8,268 signatures to qualify as an official Republican candidate. Schiff has strong libertarian leanings and will be the extreme underdog in the race against McMahon.

FL-Sen: A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) expanding his lead over Marco Rubio (R). While most previous polls have shown Crist with a small single-digit lead (if any at all), this one has him up by 11 points. Crist leads with 42%, while Rubio picks up 31% and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) receives 14% of the vote.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) is hitting back against Sen. Harry Reid's (D) volley of attacks with a new web ad called "Crickets." It charges Reid's attack ads as nothing more than distractions from his own unpopular record as senator and majority leader. It's worth a look.

UT-Sen: A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll released Saturday finds businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) with a narrow lead over attorney Mike Lee (R) in the GOP primary to replace Sen. Bob Bennett (R). Bridgewater, who has been endorsed by Bennett, leads Lee 42% to 33%. But that lead might not mean anything, seeing as 25% of GOP voters are still undecided. Voters go to the polls Tuesday, and most political observers are expecting this race to be very close.

AL-Gov: The results of the recount are in: businessman Tim James (R), who personally paid the $200,000 for the recount, actually lost by more than 200 votes to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), instead of the 167 vote deficit he had on election night. Bentley has now officially earned a spot in the GOP runoff against Bradley Byrne (R).

CO-Gov: That same Survey USA poll also took a look at the state's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, they found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leading Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) 57% to 29%. In general election match-ups, the poll found McInnis leading Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47% to 43%--while Maes led Hickenlooper 45% to 44%.

FL-Gov: That same Chamber of Commerce poll confirms what other recent polling has found: self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R) has jumped into the lead ahead of Attorney General Bill McCollum (R), 35% to 30%. McCollum, who has a reputation of being a lackluster candidate from a couple of previous statewide campaigns, needs to pick up the pace and find a coherent message while Scott floods the airwaves with ads.

SC-Gov: Politico reports that Mitt Romney has donated $42,000 to state Rep. Nikki Haley's (R) gubernatorial campaign. PACs are only allowed to donate $3,500 to a candidate per cycle, but Romney found a way around it: "With one federal PAC and five statewide PACs each maxing out at $3,500 for Haley in both the GOP primary and general elections, Romney has contributed a total of $42,000." Apparently, Romney really wants Haley to take the governor's mansion so he can cash in a few favors with her in the all-important South Carolina primary in 2012--especially since Haley and Palin appear to be very buddy-buddy these days.

NY-23: Here's some rare bad news for Republicans. The state Independence Party just endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R) for their ballot line. Meanwhile, the state Conservative Party has endorsed Doug Hoffman (R), who lost the special election in this district in 2009. Both Doheny and Hoffman are also running for the GOP nomination, so this means that whoever loses the GOP nomination could run on a third-party ballot line--effectively splitting the Republican vote and allowing freshman Rep. Bill Owens (D) a relatively easy path to reelection.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Rick Berg (R) leading Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 51% to 44% in the state's at-large congressional district. Their poll from last month showed Berg with a similar 9-point lead.

PA-03: The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List is targeting freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over her vote for the "pro-abortion" health care reform bill, even though Dahlkemper claims to be pro-life. They have pledged to throw $300,000 into the race to attack Dahlkemper and support her GOP rival, businessman Mike Kelly (R).

SC-01: Sarah Palin joined the House GOP leadership in endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott (R) ahead of his runoff against Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond. This is presumably because they want to have at least one African American in their caucus.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) leads retired teacher and activist Claudia Wright (D) 52% to 33% in the Democratic primary, according the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll mentioned above. This lead seems a bit small, seeing as he's outspending Wright 42-to-1 ahead of Tuesday's primary.

Daily Rundown: 6/10/10

CO-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan Strategies released a poll showing Weld County District Attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R) leading former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R), the "establishment" candidate, 42% to 32%. While Buck does seem to be closing on Norton very well (last month's PPP poll had Norton only up by 5 points), this lead looks a bit too large given that the dynamics of the race haven't changed much since last month. But it looks like Norton's seeing a similar Buck surge in her internals and is going up with an ad in the right-leaning Colorado Springs area, trying to make inroads with the kind of conservative voters that have supported Buck so far.

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) 55% to 35%. This 20-point margin is a good deal larger than McMahon's internal poll found yesterday, which only had her down by 13.

KY-Sen: Looks like the wounds between Rand Paul (R) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) are starting to heal. Despite their long-running disputes and differences, McConnell announced that he will host a fundraiser for Paul. McConnell, of course, strongly backed Secretary of State Trey Grayson against Paul in the GOP primary last month.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds newly-minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle with a double-digit lead over Sen. Harry Reid (D). According to the poll, Angle leads Reid 50% t0 39%. While I do think Angle has the slight edge in the race at this point, this lead seems a little much. And Rasmussen has been known to find huge post-primary bumps for Republicans (see: Paul, Rand), so take this with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton--fresh off of his successful stumping for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas--will hold a rally for Reid next week.

NC-Sen: Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), who lost the state's Democratic primary to DSCC favorite Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) last month, is backing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) in the state's June 22 runoff. Marshall is another woman who's running against a DSCC favorite in the form of former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), who finished second to Marshall in the first round of voting on May 4. "Like me, she was told to stay out of her state's U.S. Senate race," Brunner wrote in a fundraising e-mail for Marshall. "Like me, she didn't look back."

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D); an unknown, unemployed veteran who did not campaign, raise or spend money or release ads, and paid the $10,000 filing fee out of pocket; shocked South Carolina Democrats by winning the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Jim DeMint (R) over Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D) on Tuesday. This race was not even supposed to be close, but Greene won by an astounding 18-point margin.

Some attribute it to Greene being black in a state with majority black Democratic electorate. Some attribute it to his name being first on the ballot. But that doesn't seem enough to explain this anomaly and now, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), among others, are questioning whether Greene was some sort of "plant" by the GOP. Clyburn even called for an investigation. Meanwhile, after his win, it was released that he was charged with showing a college student obscene photos last fall. Despite pressure to drop out, Greene is vowing to stay in the race. Could this story get any stranger?

AL-Gov: Businessman Tim James (R), who lost a spot in the GOP gubernatorial runoff to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) by just 208 votes, is asking for a statewide recount. And he's willing to dish out the $200,000 to pay for it. Meanwhile, Bentley is pivoting to the runoff against state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R). The winner of that will face state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) in the general election.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in a statistical dead heat with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) a mere two days after the primary. Brown edges Whitman 45% to 44%.

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac also took a look at Connecticut's gubernatorial Democratic primary. They found Ned Lamont (D) with a comfortable 17-point lead over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), 39% to 22%.

IL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Sen. Bill Brady (R) expanding his lead over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady now leads Quinn by 11 points, 47% to 36%. Their previous poll showed Brady up by 7 points. Brady has been hammering Quinn on airwaves recently, tying the governor to Rod Blagojevich and the state's economic woes.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) released an internal poll showing her with a huge lead, 62% to 28%, over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney isn't missing a beat and will campaign for Haley "soon," meaning before the runoff vote. Romney is likely trying to curry more favor with the likely future governor after she got a bit too chummy with Sarah Palin in the weeks leading up to the primary.

ID-01: A new poll from Greg Smith and Associates shows state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) starting out with a 12-point lead over freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D), leading the congressman 36% to 24%. Minnick spokesman John Foster derided the poll as a "joke," calling Smith "notorious for being inaccurate."

NY-13: Politico reports: "Lou Wein, a repeated unsuccessful candidate for statewide office over the years, says he'll join the Republican primary fray to take on Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon in the fall." Wein will join former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who's been endorsed by the state Conservative Party, and Michael Allegretti (R), who's been endorsed by the Staten Island GOP.

Daily Rundown: 6/9/10

AR-Sen: The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is refusing to promise that it will support Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in the general election. The SEIU was part of a larger coalition of unions that spent millions of dollars trying to unseat Lincoln, and is not so quick to cozy up to her yet in her race against Rep. John Boozman (R). “Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members," said senior White House official. "If even half that total had been well targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November."

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican Senate candidates, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (the establishment favorite) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (the Tea Party-backed insurgent) to have small leads over their potential Democratic rivals. Norton leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) by six points and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) by one point. Buck leads Bennet by five points and leads Romanoff by six.

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon (R) is out with an internal poll showing her down only 13 points to Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), 51% to 38%. A Blumenthal internal poll had him up by a similar 15 point margin, but it was taken in the wake of his service record controversy. Public polling of the race has shown Blumenthal with bigger leads.

FL-Sen: Two new polls out in this race. Quinnipiac finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) edging former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) 37% to 33%, while Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) only picks up 17%. They also find Crist running about even with Meek among Democrats, and ahead of both of his rivals among independents--something he needs to keep up to have a shot at winning. Rasmussen finds a tie ballgame, with Crist and Rubio pulling in 37% apiece, while Meek sits in third with 15%.

IL-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rep. Mark Kirk with a slight lead over state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, 42% to 39%. Their last poll had Kirk up by eight points. This poll comes out at a tough time for Kirk campaign. He has been under fire for repeatedly misstating his military record. And he just lost the endorsement of two environmental groups, the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters, who had supported him in the past. LCV's Tony Massaro explained: "We can no longer depend on how he is going to vote."

FL-Gov: Quinnipiac also polled the Florida governor's race, which found that Bud Chiles, the newly entered independent candidate in the race, will be a significant factor. If Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) is the GOP nominee, he would lead state CFO Alex Sink (D) 33% to 25%, with Chiles in third with 19%. If Rick Scott (R) is the Republican nominee, he would lead Sink 35% to 26% while Chiles would pick up 13%.

SC-Gov: Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), the underdog in a runoff with likely nominee Nikki Haley (R), is vowing to stay in the race, despite the Republican Governors Association's wishes. But he didn't attack Haley in a press conference today when asked questions about what the contrasts will be with Nikki Haley in the runoff. Perhaps he is ensuring that he will finish an honorable (a first in South Carolina) second place.

NJ-06: The GOP primary in this race, which is not on my list of the 102 most competitive House races but is still worth watching, is the only one that has not been called from last night. With 99.8% of precincts reporting, Tea Party-backed Highlands Mayor Anna Little leads establishment favorite businesswoman Diane Gooch by 61 votes out of more than 13,000 cast. I smell a recount. The winner will take on entrenched Rep. Frank Pallone (D), who has a $4 million dollar campaign warchest at his disposal.

Daily Rundown: 6/3/10

CA-Sen: Well, that was quick. Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) will go back up on the air Friday, running a commercial touting that he will be the GOP's best shot at taking down Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). He cites a recent LA Times poll showing him up 7 points over Boxer, while Carly Fiorina loses by 6 points. Not a bad closing sell, but it may not be enough to overcome Fiorina's recent surge in the polls and massive financial advantage.

CO-Sen: It looks like the Obama administration tried to meddle in the Colorado Democratic Senate primary too. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs released a statement this morning admitting that deputy chief of staff Jim Messina called former state House Speak Andrew Romanoff to see if he was still interested in a job he applied for during the presidential transition (at USAID) to avoid a primary with Sen. Michael Bennet (D), who has the backing of the administration. Romanoff released a statement saying that no job was formally offered, but claimed that they inquired about his interest in two more administration jobs.

Now, this may all be inside baseball and may have no impact on voters, but it is still very embarrassing for the Obama administration. This follows a similar ploy in Pennsylvania to get Rep. Joe Sestak (D) to drop his primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (D), in which the administration used Bill Clinton as a go-between for an offer of an unpaid, informal advisory position. Maybe this is a sign that the president should stop meddling in its party's primaries?

CT-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 23 points, 56% to 33%. This is a huge change from their previous poll that had Blumenthal up 3, which was taken in the midst of his misstatements on his service.

NV-Sen: A new Suffolk poll shows former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle taking the lead in the GOP primary to take on Sen. Harry Reid (D), confirming her late surge. Angle takes 33%, compared with 26% for real estate developer Danny Tarkanian and 25% for casino executive and former state GOP chair Sue Lowden, whose campaign has been dogged by a series of mini-scandals in recent weeks. Angle is considered to be the weakest general election candidate against Reid.

FL-Gov: Bud Chiles, the son of former Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, has announced that he will run for governor as an independent, a la Charlie Crist. This comes as bad news to Democrats, as Chiles will probably siphon votes away from state CFO Alex Sink (D), who already was facing an uphill battle against likely GOP nominee Attorney General Bill McCollum.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Terry Branstad's (R) prospects still look pretty good in the general election against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D). A PPP poll has him up 15 points over Culver, 52% to 37%. But Branstad still has to get through the Republican primary, which has become more competitive that expected. Evangelical leader James Dobson just threw his support behind Branstad's chief rival, businessman and activist Bob Vander Plaats (R). GOP voters will choose their nominee on Tuesday.

MI-Gov: A lot of polls today. This one, from EPIC-MRA, shows Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) leading the pack in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Hoekstra takes 30%, compared with 18% for Attorney General Mix Cox, 17% for businessman Rick Snyder (who is thought to be the strongest general election candidate), and 16% for Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. On the Democratic side it still looks pretty close, with state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) leading Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) 29% to 23%.

NV-Gov: That same Suffolk poll also tested the GOP gubernatorial primary, between former federal judge Brian Sandoval, incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons, and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montadon. The poll finds Sandoval with a 22-point lead over Gibbons, 47% to 25%. Montadon comes away with 10%. The primary is on Tuesday.

SC-Gov: Oy vey. Another man has come forward and claimed that he had an "inappropriate sexual encounter" with gubernatorial hopeful state Rep. Nikki Haley (R). Instead of a blogger this time, it's a campaign aide to one of Haley's rivals, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R). Haley has once again denied the allegations and accused Bauer of being behind this 11th hour attack. Whether these claims actually have merit or are just despicable campaign tactics, the story might start to stick with South Carolina GOP voters. We'll see if it affects their votes come Tuesday--but somehow I think it won't.

HI-01: Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who is running for governor, is the latest Hawaii Democrat to endorse state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) in the Democratic primary for his old seat. Since former Rep. Ed Case (D) decided not to make a run for the nomination, Hanabusa has turned into the presumptive nominee to take on Rep. Charles Djou (R) in November.