Kansas, Michigan & Missouri Primaries Wrap-Up

KS-Sen: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) narrowly defeated Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 50% to 45% last night, and will almost certainly become the state's next senator. This comes as another blow to Sarah Palin, who backed Tiahrt in the primary. Both Republican congressmen were trying to paint the other one as moderate, but by national standards, both of these men are highly conservative--and Moran, like Sam Brownback before him, will provide a consistent Republican vote in the Senate.

KS-01: In the primary to replace Moran, state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R) won the GOP nomination by 10 points, which means--given the heavy Republican tilt of the district--that he will be the next congressman from this district.

KS-03: In the only competitive district in the state, state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) defeated former state Rep. Patricia Lightner (R) 45% to 37%. He will go on to face nurse Stephene Moore (D), the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D). Current rating: Lean Republican.

KS-04: In the GOP race to replace Tiahrt, former RNC Committeeman Mike Pompeo (R) defeated moderate and Planned Parenthood-endorsee state Sen. Jean Schodorf (R), 39% to 24%. He will face a slightly challenging Democratic opponent in state Rep. Ray Goyle (D), who has proven his fundraising prowess, but he's a heavy favorite to win.

MI-Gov: Former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R), a moderate who reached out to independents and Democrats describing himself as "one tough nerd," defeated Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) and Attorney General Mike Cox (R), 36% to 27% to 23%. While Hoekstra and Cox were fighting for the conservative/Tea Party vote, Snyder seemed to sneak by in the center. On the Democratic side, it looks like big labor showed up to support their horse in the race, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D). The progressive populist Bernero defeated state House Speaker Andy Dillon, a pro-life moderate, by an astounding 59% to 41% margin. While Snyder's victory in the GOP primary may be bad news for conservatives, it is even worse news for Democrats, as his moderate nature will make it almost impossible for Bernero to win in what was already going to be a tough race for any Democrat after the unpopular tenure of sitting Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D). Current rating: Likely Republican.

MI-01: We still don't know who won this one. With 100% of precincts reporting, surgeon Dan Benishek (R) currently leads state Sen. Jason Allen (R) by just 12 (!) votes, 27,070 to 27,058. Definitely expect a recount here. The eventual winner will go on to face state Rep. Gary McDowell (D). Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-02: In the race to replace the soon-to-be-unemployed Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), we also don't know won. With all of the precincts in, former state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) leads former NFL player Jay Riemersma (R) by 660 votes. AP hasn't called the race yet, but it's hard to see Riemersma making up that ground in a recount.

MI-03: In the only slightly competitive 3rd district, state Rep. Justin Amash (R)--who had the backing of the Club for Growth--won the GOP primary over the more moderate state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R). Attorney Pat Miles (D) , who has the ability to partially self-fund his candidacy, won the Democratic nod.

MI-07: Former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) defeated attorney and Iraq War veteran Brian Rooney (R) in the Republican nomination, 58% to 32%. Walberg will have a clear chance to get revenge this year, as he was ousted by now-Rep. Mark Schauer (D) in 2008. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-09: Former State Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R) crushed former Oakland County GOP chair Paul Welday (R)--the NRCC's pick in the race--42% to 28%. He'll face freshman Rep. Gary Peters (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

MI-13: State Sen. Hansen Clarke (D) ousted seven-term incumbent Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) in the Democratic primary last night, 47% to 41%. Kilpatrick was hurt by defending her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D), as he withstood multiple criminal counts (which he was later convicted of). Clarke is a shoo-in to win the general election in this dark blue district.

MO-Sen: The Missouri Senate race begins in earnest today, as Rep. Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) easily defeated their token primary opposition. State Sen. Chuck Purgason (R), who made some noise late in the game in the GOP primary, got crushed 71% to 13%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-03: Ed Martin (R), former Gov. Matt Blunt's (R) chief of staff, easily defeated Rusty Wallace (R) 63% to 21%. He'll have an uphill (but not an impossible) climb against Rep. Russ Carnahan (D).

MO-04: Former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) beat state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R) 41% to 30%, and will now take on longtime Rep. Ike Skelton (D), the chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

MO-07: In the race to replace Roy Blunt, auctioneer Billy Long (R) overcame the candidacies of several members of the state legislature to win the Republican nomination in the 7th district. He will cruise to victory in the general election in this heavily Republican district.

Daily Rundown: 8/3/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R)--who's looking more and more likely to crush former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP primary--leading likely Democratic nominee Rodney Glassman (D) by 19 points, 53% to 34%. If Hayworth is the GOP nominee, he trails Glassman by five points, 43% to 38%. Current rating: Safe Republican.

CO-Sen: It's no secret that Andrew Romanoff's (D) campaign has been having some money issues. Romanoff has long trailed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in fundraising and recently sold his house to get some extra money for the homestretch to the Democratic primary. Now that it seems more plausible that he could win the nomination, many Colorado Democrats were concerned about his less-than-formidable fundraising prowess, especially since he took a pledge that he wouldn't take any money from PACs. But luckily for them, Romanoff has agreed to take money from the DSCC, which takes money from PACs--which he also said he wouldn't do back in January. Win some lose some, Romanoff. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KS-Sen: Survey USA is out with a late-breaking poll showing Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) by 10 points, 49% to 39%. But Tiahrt has slowly but surely gained ground on Moran since May, although Survey USA is the only pollster to test the race. The primary is today.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) edging Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by just two points, 39% to 37%, with 7% for Libertarian Michael Beitler. Their last poll of the race, from June, found Burr up by five points. The only thing that's changed since then is that Marshall has begun to consolidate support among Democrats. Still, there are a huge number of undecided voters because many North Carolinians just haven't paid any attention to the race yet. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by three points, 49% to 46%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: Rasmussen basically confirmed what Survey USA found yesterday: John Hickenlooper is the luckiest candidate this cycle. Their new poll also finds that Tom Tancredo's third-party candidacy is hurting both potential GOP nominees. Hickenlooper leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) and Tancredo by 19 points, 43-25-24. And he leads Dan Maes (R) by 15 points, 42-27-24.

Daily Rundown: 7/2/10

CO-Sen: As President Obama heads to Missouri for Robin Carnahan (D) and Nevada for Harry Reid (D), and as Vice President Joe Biden stumps for Barbara Boxer (D) in California over the July 4 recess, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)--who's become a primaries kingmaker for conservatives/Tea Partiers--will stump for Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) in Colorado. Buck is trying to keep his image of a conservative insurgent going as gears up for the home stretch of the GOP primary, where he faces establishment favorite Jane Norton (R), a former lieutenant governor.

IL-Sen: Now that the second financial quarter is officially over, I'll be posting a summary of all the major candidates' fundraising and cash-on-hand totals once they all come out. But until then, I'll leak some of the info ahead of time, like this. Despite all of the controversy for embellishing his military credentials and past as a teacher, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) had another strong quarter. He pulled in $2.3 million (which is a hundred thousand more than last quarter) and now has $4 million in the bank.

KS-Sen: Another stop on Sen. Jim DeMint's (R) July 4 recess road trip: Kansas. He'll be stumping for Rep. Jerry Moran (R) as he tries to out-conservative his primary opponent, Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R), who has recently been endorsed by Sarah Palin. It's the battle of the conservative king (or queen) makers.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, almost doubling his haul from the first quarter. His spokesman refused to say how much cash the campaign has on hand.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 43% to 39%. Most other recent polls of the race have shown Fisher up by a few points, and our average shows Fisher with a 0.2% lead. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

MD-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) three points ahead over sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), 46% to 43%. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

WI-Gov: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will stump and raise money for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's (D) campaign for governor. Barrett is a member of Bloomberg's Mayors Against Illegal Guns coalition. Barrett could certainly use the help as he has been lagging in the polls against both potential Republican nominees, Scott Walker (R) and Mark Neumann (R).

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) raised $101,000 from May 13 to June 23, and now has $112,000 in the bank. But before she gets to use that cash to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D), she has to fend off a challenge from businessman Rick Barber (R) in a July 13 runoff. The NRCC clearly favors Roby in the race (she's a "Young Gun") while Barber has done all he can to consolidate the Tea Party movement. Barber raised only $49,000 in that same period and has only $25,000 in cash on hand. But then again, he also has this ad at his disposal. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

SC-05: The NRCC is up with a new ad attacking Rep. John Spratt (D), the chairman of the House Budget Committee, for failing to pass a budget. This is a win-win situation for the GOP, because if the Democrats don't pass a budget, then they look inept at leading. But if they do pass a budget, there will likely be huge deficits that Republican candidates can use to say that Democrats' spending has gotten out of control. Spratt has a strong challenger this cycle in state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The Election Frontier currently rates this race: Lean DEM.

AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is targeting a handful of Republican Senate candidates and House incumbents over the July 4 recess for their votes against card-check legislation, the jobs bill and Wall Street reform. The Senate targets are: Rep. Mark Kirk (IL), Rep. Roy Blunt (R), and Rep. Mike Castle (R). The House targets are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Charlie Dent (PA-15).

DGA: One day after their Republican counterparts announced raising a whopping $19 million in the second quarter, the Democratic Governors Association announced--conveniently right before the holiday weekend--that they raised only $9.1 million over the same period of time. The RGA has $40 million in the bank to the DGA's $22 million. DGA officials are making the case that "the RGA’s coffers have benefited from the troubles that have roiled the Republican National Committee." This may actually have some merit, as the national, Senate, and House Democratic committees have thus far outraised their GOP counterparts.

Wall Street Reform: In case you were wondering, here's a list of the 3 Republicans and 19 Democrats that voted against their parties on the financial reform legislation that was passed on Wednesday. The Republicans who voted "yes" are: Mike Castle (DE-AL, running for Senate), Joseph Cao (LA-02), and Walter Jones (NC-03). The Democrats who voted "no" are basically a who's who of vulnerable incumbents and Blue Dogs: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Marion Berry (AR-01, retiring), Mike Ross (AR-04), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Travis Childers (MS-01), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Bill Owens (NY-23), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Dan Boren (OK-02), Mark Critz (PA-12), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Jim Cooper (TN-05), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-05), and Rick Boucher (VA-09). The bill now moves to the Senate, where things will get a bit trickier for Democrats.

Daily Rundown: 6/28/10

CO-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) in the Senate GOP primary, citing her as the more electable general election candidate. This could potentially help Norton shift back the momentum of the race to her after her Tea Party-backed opponent, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), has led by double-digits in recent polling.

IL-Sen: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias's (D) respite from media criticism following Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) long line of mistakes and gaffes appears to be over. He has been subpoenaed in former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's trial.

IA-Sen: EMILY's List, a group that raises money for pro-choice female candidates, has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) in her underdog bid against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). Polls have been all over the place in this race--some showing her down by single digits and others showing her down by more than 20 points. But this endorsement will definitely give Conlin a financial boost (even though she has her own money to pour into the race) as she takes on the entrenched Republican incumbent.

KS-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in the Senate GOP primary by 20 points, 53% to 33%. Looks like Sarah Palin needs to come stump for Tiahrt sooner rather than later.

SC-Sen: South Carolina law enforcement officials will investigate if any laws were broken with the way that Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene (D) has been representing his personal finances. The focus will probably be on how collected the $10,400 to pay the filing fee to run for Senate while he couldn't even afford to hire a lawyer for the felony obscenity charges he faces.

FL-Gov: Newt Gingrich is the latest Republican to endorse Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) gubernatorial campaign, as he fends off a challenge from self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush were the last two big-name Republicans to endorse McCollum. Meanwhile, Bud Chiles (I) is refusing to drop out of the race despite complaints from Democrats that his candidacy will siphon off votes from state CFO Alex Sink (D) and allow a Republican victory.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race found Haley up by 21 points, but that can be attributed to the large post-primary-victory bumps that Rasmussen has consistently found for candidates of both parties across the country.

MS-01: Following an endorsement from the National Rifle Association last week, Rep. Travis Childers (D) now has the backing of National Right to Life, an anti-abortion organization. It looks like Childers is winning the early battle to establish conservative bona fides in his race against state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R).

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).