In Tuesday's South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, as expected, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) cruised to a 65-35 victory over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R). Haley is heavily favored to defeat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) in the general election and make history as South Carolina's first non-white-male governor.
Everyone's making a lot of hay over the diversity she brings to the GOP, and how--as a conservative Indian-American woman governor from a deep south state--she will be at the top of everyone's VP short list even as early as 2012.
And speaking of 2012, its clear that this was also a big win for potential 2012 hopefuls Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, who endorsed Haley at critical times in her campaign.
Romney endorsed her back when she was "Nikki who?", as she likes to say, and stuck in single digits. He also donated $42,000 to her campaign from various PACs and campaigned with her in person for her runoff bid.
Palin, meanwhile, joined former South Carolina first lady Jenny Sanford in endorsing Haley at a critical time, immediately launching her into frontrunner status. And Palin stood by her side when Haley was accused of infidelity by swatting down the claims. Haley, for her part, actually gave a shout-out to Palin in her victory speech: "She gave us that boost we needed when we needed it."
So if Haley becomes governor, and both Romney and Palin run in 2012, its hard to say who she would endorse in the all-important South Carolina primary. She might just stay out of it completely, given that she owes both of these national GOP figures a huge favor.
Anyway, back to 2010. In South Carolina's 1st district GOP runoff, state Rep. Tim Scott (R) handily defeated Paul (son of Strom) Thurmond (R) 68% to 32%. Scott--who was endorsed by the entire House GOP leadership, the Club for Growth, Sarah Palin, and more--will likely go on to become the first black member of the GOP House caucus since J.C. Watts of Oklahoma retired in 2002.
In the 3rd district race to succeed now unemployed Gresham Barrett, state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) came back to narrowly defeat businessman Richard Cash (R) in the runoff, to the tune of 51.5% to 48.5%. Duncan also had the support of the Club for Growth and was the favorite despite finishing a surprise second to Cash in the first round of voting, while Cash wasn't even supposed to make the runoff.
And finally, in the 4th district, Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was humiliated last night by a 71-29 loss to Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), a Tea Party favorite. Inglis was a little too moderate and a little too willing to compromise with Democrats for this dark red district during his time in Congress. He is the third House member and the fifth member of Congress to get ousted in a primary this year.
Showing posts with label SC-03. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SC-03. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
Runoff Tuesday: What to Watch For
Voters in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah will head to the polls tomorrow to vote for their second-round choices in key House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests.
In the Carolinas, there are a number of key runoff races because neither candidate reached the (40% in North Carolina and 50% in South Carolina) threshold to clinch the nomination outright. And in Utah, neither candidate in a few select races reached the 60% threshold to clinch the nomination at their party's state nominating convention.
So here's what you should watch for tomorrow in what we (and everybody else) are calling "Runoff Tuesday":
NC-Sen: In the first round of voting, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) bested former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), the preferred candidate of the DSCC, 36% to 27%. Since then, all of the momentum has swung to Marshall, receiving the endorsements of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis (D) and progressive grassroots movements like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America. The only public poll released since the first round of voting was from PPP, which found the candidates tied at 36%. With extremely low turnout expected and the inherent unpredictability of runoffs in general (see: Arkansas), anything could happen here. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Marshall comes away with the nomination.
NC-08: The GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) has turned quite ridiculous since the first round of voting. Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has come under fire for past criminal activity (including time in prison), drug use, declaring himself a prophet, and refusing to pay child support among other things by local media organizations and his rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R). D'Annunzio, who has self-funded the majority of his campaign and finished ahead of Johnson in the first round of voting, backed out of a televised debate and slapped Johnson with a defamation lawsuit since then. Meanwhile, D'Annunzio has lost almost all support among local Tea Party groups and other outside groups and Johnson has garnered the open support of the House GOP leadership. A PPP poll taken of the race last week showed Johnson leading D'Annunzio 49% to 39%, and showed him to be a much stronger general election candidate. If Johnson loses this one, I'll be flabbergasted.
SC-Gov: After the slanderous first round of voting that included multiple charges of infidelity and outward racism, the runoff between state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) seems fairly...dare I say civilized? The only controversy that has arose since the primary has been about Haley's Sikh heritage, but even that was pretty quiet. The South Carolina GOP is fairly split between the two, but it doesn't really matter as Haley (who was one percentage point shy on clinching the GOP nod outright) looks poised to cruise to victory in round two. The real drama in this race will be who gets the credit for the win (aside from Haley): Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or the Republican Governors Association--which endorsed Haley right after round one.
SC-01: State Rep. Tim Scott (R) is trying to become to first African-American in the House GOP caucus since J.C. Watts retired in 2002. He is taking on Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of late legendary South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond. Scott bested Thurmond 32% to 16% in the first round of voting, and appears to have all the momentum moving forward. He has since picked up the endorsements of Sarah Palin, the House GOP leadership, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Thurmond, meanwhile, has been endorsed by several of his former primary rivals, including the big-named Carroll Campbell III (R).
SC-03: Businessman Richard Cash (R) surprised a lot of people by finishing first in the primary with 25%, with Club for Growth-backed state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) taking 23%. Your guess is as mine for who comes out on top here.
SC-04: The race in this district is almost sure to fuel the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the mainstream media is so attached to. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) beat Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 39% to 28% in the primary, mostly fueled by conservative anger over Inglis's vote for TARP. Since then, Inglis's House colleagues have essentially left him for dead. Gowdy is almost certain to seal the deal tomorrow, making Inglis the fifth member of congress to be ousted in a primary.
UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was the first member of congress to be ousted this cycle. Bennett finished third at the state GOP nominating convention, making him ineligible for the primary. Businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) won 57% of the vote at the convention while attorney Mike Lee (R) won 42%. Bridgewater and Lee agree on almost everything and both have support from local tea parties, so the primary campaign narrative has been: "do you want a businessman or lawyer in the Senate?" Bennett, who was believed to have more influence among Utah GOP voters than with the conservative convention delegates, has endorsed Bridgewater. Lee has boasted support from conservative ideologues such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), and Freedom Works PAC chairman Dick Armey. The only poll taken of the race showed Bridgewater with a 9-point lead over Lee, but a quarter of GOP voters are still undecided. This is expected be an old-fashioned horse race of a finish.
UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is taking no chances in reclaiming the Democratic nomination as he tries to stave off a challenge to his left from teacher and progressive activist Claudia Wright (D). Matheson beat Wright by a surprisingly small 55% to 45% margin at the state convention, and has since outspent her 42-to-1 in response. Wright has tapped into Democrats' frustration with Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade as well as his conservative views on immigration and gay marriage. But it's not clear whether Wright can turn that frustration into votes. A poll taken of the race this weekend shows her trailing Matheson 52% to 33%. Utah Republicans are surely rooting for Wright to win the nomination, as she would be a much easier target in the general election.
In the Carolinas, there are a number of key runoff races because neither candidate reached the (40% in North Carolina and 50% in South Carolina) threshold to clinch the nomination outright. And in Utah, neither candidate in a few select races reached the 60% threshold to clinch the nomination at their party's state nominating convention.
So here's what you should watch for tomorrow in what we (and everybody else) are calling "Runoff Tuesday":
NC-Sen: In the first round of voting, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) bested former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), the preferred candidate of the DSCC, 36% to 27%. Since then, all of the momentum has swung to Marshall, receiving the endorsements of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis (D) and progressive grassroots movements like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America. The only public poll released since the first round of voting was from PPP, which found the candidates tied at 36%. With extremely low turnout expected and the inherent unpredictability of runoffs in general (see: Arkansas), anything could happen here. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Marshall comes away with the nomination.
NC-08: The GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) has turned quite ridiculous since the first round of voting. Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has come under fire for past criminal activity (including time in prison), drug use, declaring himself a prophet, and refusing to pay child support among other things by local media organizations and his rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R). D'Annunzio, who has self-funded the majority of his campaign and finished ahead of Johnson in the first round of voting, backed out of a televised debate and slapped Johnson with a defamation lawsuit since then. Meanwhile, D'Annunzio has lost almost all support among local Tea Party groups and other outside groups and Johnson has garnered the open support of the House GOP leadership. A PPP poll taken of the race last week showed Johnson leading D'Annunzio 49% to 39%, and showed him to be a much stronger general election candidate. If Johnson loses this one, I'll be flabbergasted.
SC-Gov: After the slanderous first round of voting that included multiple charges of infidelity and outward racism, the runoff between state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) seems fairly...dare I say civilized? The only controversy that has arose since the primary has been about Haley's Sikh heritage, but even that was pretty quiet. The South Carolina GOP is fairly split between the two, but it doesn't really matter as Haley (who was one percentage point shy on clinching the GOP nod outright) looks poised to cruise to victory in round two. The real drama in this race will be who gets the credit for the win (aside from Haley): Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or the Republican Governors Association--which endorsed Haley right after round one.
SC-01: State Rep. Tim Scott (R) is trying to become to first African-American in the House GOP caucus since J.C. Watts retired in 2002. He is taking on Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of late legendary South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond. Scott bested Thurmond 32% to 16% in the first round of voting, and appears to have all the momentum moving forward. He has since picked up the endorsements of Sarah Palin, the House GOP leadership, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Thurmond, meanwhile, has been endorsed by several of his former primary rivals, including the big-named Carroll Campbell III (R).
SC-03: Businessman Richard Cash (R) surprised a lot of people by finishing first in the primary with 25%, with Club for Growth-backed state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) taking 23%. Your guess is as mine for who comes out on top here.
SC-04: The race in this district is almost sure to fuel the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the mainstream media is so attached to. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) beat Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 39% to 28% in the primary, mostly fueled by conservative anger over Inglis's vote for TARP. Since then, Inglis's House colleagues have essentially left him for dead. Gowdy is almost certain to seal the deal tomorrow, making Inglis the fifth member of congress to be ousted in a primary.
UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was the first member of congress to be ousted this cycle. Bennett finished third at the state GOP nominating convention, making him ineligible for the primary. Businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) won 57% of the vote at the convention while attorney Mike Lee (R) won 42%. Bridgewater and Lee agree on almost everything and both have support from local tea parties, so the primary campaign narrative has been: "do you want a businessman or lawyer in the Senate?" Bennett, who was believed to have more influence among Utah GOP voters than with the conservative convention delegates, has endorsed Bridgewater. Lee has boasted support from conservative ideologues such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), and Freedom Works PAC chairman Dick Armey. The only poll taken of the race showed Bridgewater with a 9-point lead over Lee, but a quarter of GOP voters are still undecided. This is expected be an old-fashioned horse race of a finish.
UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is taking no chances in reclaiming the Democratic nomination as he tries to stave off a challenge to his left from teacher and progressive activist Claudia Wright (D). Matheson beat Wright by a surprisingly small 55% to 45% margin at the state convention, and has since outspent her 42-to-1 in response. Wright has tapped into Democrats' frustration with Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade as well as his conservative views on immigration and gay marriage. But it's not clear whether Wright can turn that frustration into votes. A poll taken of the race this weekend shows her trailing Matheson 52% to 33%. Utah Republicans are surely rooting for Wright to win the nomination, as she would be a much easier target in the general election.
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