Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/27/10

CA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%. According to the poll, independents have dashed away from Fiorina back toward Boxer, which essentially what puts Boxer in the lead. Most other public polls have found a much closer race, and some have even given Fiorina the lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates with small leads over both Democrats. Ken Buck (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D) by six points. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads Bennet by nine, and bests Romanoff by four. Meanwhile, Romanoff is selling his house and loaning his campaign $325,000 to go "all-in" in his insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. Courageous move or act of desperation? I'm betting on the latter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with a new poll that finds that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte (R) may have backfired. She has her smallest lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to date, besting him by just three points, 45% to 42%. While shoring up her Republican base, she seems to have lost moderates in the process--seemingly in part because of Palin' endorsement. In April, Hodes led Ayotte by just 8 points among moderates, and now he's up by 21 points--and her favorability among that group has plummeted. Meanwhile, self-funding businessman Bill Binnie (R) leads Hodes by six points, Hodes leads Jim Bender (R) by one point and Ovide Lamontagne (R) by 5. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by seven points, 44% to 37%, with 15% undecided. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you release an internal poll showing you losing to a virtual unknown candidate. State Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) released an internal poll showing him trailing Rick Scott (R) by six points, 37% to 31%. Most public polling shows Scott with a much larger lead.

MD-Gov: A new Gonzales Research poll finds sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%--within the poll's margin of error. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (R) by three points, 47% to 44%--virtually unchanged from their June poll of the race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NM-01: A new Survey USA poll finds businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) by six points, 51% to 45%. But there's a red flag here, as it seems pretty unlikely that only 4% of voters are undecided this far out from the election. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/1/10

AZ-Sen: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is trying to get back on the offensive against Sen. John McCain (R) by releasing a four-minute video pointing out his ties to convicted Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein. Rothstein used to be a fundraiser for the senator, but the McCain campaign responded by saying: "John McCain couldn't pick him out of a lineup." The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Safe Republican.

FL-Sen: The St. Petersburg Times reports that a judge has scheduled an October trial for Jim Greer, the former state GOP chairman accused of corruption who was hand-picked by Gov. Charlie Crist (I). The trial starts two weeks before election day and could slow any momentum Crist has down the home stretch. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A month after losing a close primary to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) is saying he won't endorse either candidate in the general election. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%, virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. The Election Frontier's polling average finds Toomey leading Sestak by one point, and we currently rate this race a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Survey USA poll confirms that it's going to be Sen. Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in November. Instead of party primaries, Washington state has an open "jungle" primary in which all candidates of all parties compete in the same primary and the top two finishers advance. In the survey, Murray gets 37% and Rossi gets 33%--way ahead of all the other candidates. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) extending her lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. According the poll, Brewer leads Goddard by 18 points, 53% to 35%, a five-point improvement from their poll from last month. If this election continues to be a referendum on the Arizona immigration law, then Brewer should win pretty easily.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has picked a running mate in his comeback bid: former Secretary of State Mary Kane (R). The motive behind the pick seems to be that Ehrlich is looking to shore up his support in Montgomery County, where Kane lives. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is running with his lieutenant governor, Anthony Brown (D).

OH-Gov: It looks like former Rep. John Kasich (R) is making his first move to the center in the general election campaign. He now says he supports "a federal extension of unemployment benefits."

OR-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by one point, 41% to 40%. Even though Magellan is GOP pollster, these results seem pretty much in line with what other recent public polls have found.

WY-Gov: Not that this is actually important, but actor Wilford Brimley has decided to support state Auditor Rita Meyer (R) in the crowded GOP primary. But hey, what other news is coming out of Wyoming anyway, right?

RGA: The Republican Governor's Association hauled in just under $19 million in contributions in the second quarter and has $40 million in the bank. Under the leadership of Mississippi Gov. (and 2012 hopeful?) Haley Barbour, the RGA seems to be doing a lot better financially than their committee counterparts--the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) is facing allegations that "as a police sergeant nearly 20 years ago, he mishandled the investigation of a subordinate officer who had been accused of strip-searching two teenage girls." Perry, who has been endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Mitt Romney, faces a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Joe Malone (R), who is making hay of the issue.

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/22/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) leading former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)--who was just caught on video telling people about how they could obtain free money from the government in an infomercial--47% to 36% in the GOP Senate primary. But this poll should still be a red flag for the McCain campaign, as he's still under the all-important 50% watermark. Rasmussen's poll from last month had McCain leading by a similar margin.

IL-Sen: Businessman Mike Niecestro, a disgruntled Republican who was going to pour $1 million into an independent Senate campaign, ended his bid before it even started after failing to come up with enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. He's backing Constitution Party candidate Randy Stufflebeam, who will siphon off votes on Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) right flank.

PA-Sen: A new PPP poll shows Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) tied at 41% in Pennsylvania's Senate contest. The poll finds Sestak has consolidated the Democratic base after his post-primary bounce has wore off.

GA-Gov: A new Survey USA poll took a look at the GOP and Democratic primaries in Georgia's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) leads the pack with 34%, followed by former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) with 18%, while Rep. Nathan Deal (R) trails with 17%. A runoff looks likely between Oxendine and either Handel or Deal. In the Democratic primary, former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) looks poised to clinch the nomination outright. He crushes Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 63% to 13%, with no other candidates reaching double-digits.

IL-Gov: Scott Lee Cohen (D), a pawnshop owner who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor only to withdraw later after getting arrested for pulling a knife on his prostitute girlfriend, will now run for governor as an independent. He'll make no real impact on the race, but he's sure to make a lot of noise and draw a lot of (probably negative) attention down the stretch.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Dudley up by one point, and a recent Survey USA poll found him leading by 7.

TX-Gov: PPP's out with a new poll in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) and former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) tied at 43%. Said pollster Tom Jensen: "Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger." Key finding: independents now support White by a 42-36 margin.

KS-03: State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is out with a new web ad showing him with his wife and a few young children. The only problem? Yoder doesn't have any kids. Whoops.

MS-01: As expected, the National Rifle Association endorsed Rep. Travis Childers (D). Childers's GOP rival, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R), tried to preempt the announcement by saying that the NRA had supported him in the past and that they tend to support incumbents that are supportive of their agenda over challengers.

Daily Rundown: 6/11/10

CA-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the California Senate race, from Rasmussen, shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five-point lead over former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, 48% to 43%. In other news, Fiorina was caught on open-mic Thursday criticizing Meg Whitman's decision to go on Sean Hannity and making fun of Boxer's hair.

FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.

NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.

NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.

WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.

CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.

ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.

MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.

NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).

NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.

VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."

The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.