Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/28/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) came out and officially said it at a debate last night: "I am running for the United State Senate." This comes after weeks of playing coy and calling his campaign ads "public service announcements"--a reminder that his name was still on the ballot. Simmons suspended his campaign after the state GOP endorsed Linda McMahon (R). Both Simmons and investor Peter Schiff (R) remain huge underdogs with less than two weeks before the primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

IL-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by two points, 43% to 41%--within the poll's margin of error. This is virtually unchanged from the results of a poll they released of this race earlier this month. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: Rasmussen is also out with a new poll in this closely watched (and over-dramatized) race. They find Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) leading Sharron Angle (R) by two points, 45% to 43%. Rasmussen's previous poll of the race, from June, found Angle up by three points. It seems like Reid' barrage of negative campaign ads to define Angle as too outside the mainstream may have worked to drive up Angle's negatives to levels comparable to his. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with part two of their poll, this time with Republican primary numbers. It seems that while Sarah Palin's endorsement hurt Kelly Ayotte (R) among moderates--which could be a problem for her in the general election--it hasn't had any negative effect on Republican voters. Ayotte has the support of 47% of likely GOP voters while her closest competitor, Bill Binnie (R), is way behind with 14%. Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Jim Bender (R) are stuck in single digits. Current rating: Lean Republican.

CA-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 46% to 40%. This must come as good news to the Brown campaign, as the last two public polls of the race have shown Whitman, albeit with small single digit margins. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Gov: PPP also put a GOP gubernatorial primary poll into the field, and found former Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen (R) leading the pack with 26%. Businessman Jack Kimball (R) trails with 15% and Karen Testerman (R) collects only 5%. But there's still a whole lot of undecided voters, as this race has taken a backseat to the more competitive and interesting Senate Republican primary.

OK-Gov: As expected, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) easily disposed of state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) in yesterday's GOP gubernatorial primary, 55% to 39%, and avoided a runoff. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) edged out state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) by less than one percentage point. The Sooner poll released this weekend wasn't even close. Now, regardless of who wins in the general election, Oklahoma will have its first female governor.

TN-Gov: Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R), who's been lagging in the polls, is under fire for calling Islam a "cult" instead of a religion. He said he's "all about freedom of religion" but added "but you cross the line when they start trying to bring Sharia law into the United States." Yikes.

OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren (D) easily fought off a health care-themed primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Wilson (D), crushing him 76% to 24%.

OK-05: The Republican primary to replace Rep. Mary Fallin (R) in Congress is headed to a runoff, as expected, featuring Christian camp director James Lankford (R) and former state Rep. Ken Calvey (R). This is basically the general election, as the winner of this runoff will go on cruise in November in this dark red district.

Daily Rundown: 7/15/10

AZ-Sen: A new poll from Behavior Research Center finds Sen. John McCain (R) widening his lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). McCain leads Hayworth by a 45-point spread, 64% to 19%, according to the poll. While other public polling shows McCain making gains, this one seems to be a little stronger than the others. Our polling average has McCain up by 26.3 points.

CT-Sen: When Linda McMahon (R) accused former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) of running a sleeper campaign after he suspended his campaign earlier this year, I pretty much laughed it off. But it appears she may have been on to something, as Simmons told the Hartford Courant that he's "thinking about" getting back in the race. "I haven't made any final decisions," said Simmons. "I'm on the ballot. I've never said I'd get off the ballot." Simmons would have a tough fight against self-funding McMahon in the GOP primary, but if he won the primary, he would give the GOP an honest shot at the seat--while still being the underdog against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D). Current rating: Likely Democrat.

NV-Sen: According to Las Vegas-Sun journalist Jon Ralston, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) raised $2.4 million in the second quarter, and still has a whopping $8.9 million in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. A PPP poll from 2 weeks ago found Feingold up by 2. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Meg Whitman (R) leading Jerry Brown (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. Their poll from last month had Brown up by 1, and our average has Whitman up by 0.3 points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Ned Lamont (D) and former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leading their respective primary contests. Lamont leads Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) by 9 points, and Foley leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) by 35 points. In general election match-ups, Lamont and Malloy both lead Foley by double-digits.

GA-Gov: With the Georgia primary quickly approaching, we're getting more and more polling on both parties' races. In the Democratic primary, Mason-Dixon finds former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) by 34 points, 54% to 20% (Barnes needs to clear 50% in order to avoid a runoff). In the GOP primary, it's not a question of if there will be a primary, but rather who will be in it--and pollsters seem to be in disagreement. Mason-Dixon gives state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) an 8-point lead over former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), while Rasmussen finds Handel and former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) tied at 25%, with Oxendine 5 points behind.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 21 points, 57% to 36%. These results are virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

RI-Gov: Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) will reportedly drop his gubernatorial bid today, allowing state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) to take the Democratic nomination without a fight and move right to the general election. Lynch trailed Caprio is polls and in fundraising, and his candidacy just never seemed to fully catch on. What is interesting that Caprio, who is much more moderate than Lynch, is very similar ideologically to former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an independent.

TX-Gov: Rasmussen also has a poll out in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by 9 points, 50% to 41%. This is only a one-point up-tick for Perry since Rasmussen's last poll here last month, but in late June PPP found the race to be tied at 43%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-08: Liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson (D) raised an impressive $325,000 last quarter, but it doesn't come close to matching the massive $803,000 haul he raised last quarter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MS-01: State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) outraised Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the second quarter, $312,000 to $277,000. But Nunnelee still has a long way to go before he can catch up to Childers' cash-on-hand. Childers has $903,000 in the bank, while Nunnelee has just $230,000. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Highlights From the 4th of July Recess

Well, I'm back from a week-long 4th of July vacation. Apparently I didn't miss a whole lot, but here's some of the highlights.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A Survey USA poll in California found Carly Fiorina (R) and Meg Whitman (R) leading their Democratic rivals in the state's senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively, for the first time. Other polls have shown both races tightening up as well.

CA-Sen, MO-Sen, NV-Sen: President Obama went to Missouri and Nevada to stump for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), respectively. Vice President Biden went to California to help Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) fundraise.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) was endorsed by Dick Armey's Freedom Works PAC as he continues to show signs of locking up the GOP nomination over the establishment favorite, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R).

IL-Sen: A Rasmussen poll found Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by one point.

KY-Sen: A PPP poll found Rand Paul (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) tied at 43%.

NV-Sen: In Nevada, Sharron Angle (R) is threatening to take legal action against Harry Reid's (D) campaign for resurrecting her much more right-wing website from when she was running in the GOP primary.

WV-Sen: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is planning on moving the special election for the state's open senate seat to this November instead of 2012. A Rasmussen poll gives Manchin a 14-point lead over potential rival Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/30/10

CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.

CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."

IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.

OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.

CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.

HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.

ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.

WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.

LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.

Daily Rundown: 6/17/10

AR-Sen: The first general election poll of this race comes from Rasmussen, and boy is it a doozy. It finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 29 points, 61% to 32%. The crazy thing is that this margin sounds about right. At this point, The Election Frontier is comfortable changing the rating of this race from Lean GOP to Likely GOP.

SC-Sen: Politico reports that former staffers of wealthy heiress Linda Ketner (D), who narrowly lost to Rep. Henry Brown (R) in 2008, "are mounting an effort to place her name on this year's Senate ballot as an independent candidate against Sen. Jim DeMint." She wants to be the "credible" candidate in the race after unknown unemployed veteran Alvin Greene (D) somehow won the Democratic nomination.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) is up with a new ad--in Spanish--touting her opposition to Arizona's immigration law. For those of you who remember the GOP gubernatorial primary, Whitman seemed to support the law by denying that she had any problems with it and airing an ad with the image of a border fence in it. Whether Latinos in California will buy this is an entirely different story.

MI-Gov: Apparently this is a hot race to poll. Yet another poll, this time from Inside Michigan Politics, finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) will a small lead over the rest of the GOP pack. He leads with 21%, followed by Rick Snyder with 15%, followed by Mike Cox and Mike Bouchard with 10%. These results are similar to a Magellan Strategies poll released yesterday, except this new poll finds there are a lot more undecideds out there.

AL-05: The wounds are starting to heal. House GOP leaders are now starting to get behind the campaign of Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who ousted party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the Republican primary earlier this month. Minority Leader John Boehner, Minority Whip Eric Cantor, and NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy--who all vocally supported Griffith in the primary--each gave a few thousand dollars to Brooks's campaign. He's also drawing some support from Alabama's congressional delegation, who also supported Griffith.

DE-AL: GOP activist Kevin Wade (R) is dropping out of the Republican primary, as he never seemed to catch on with the moderate Republicans of Delaware. That leaves businesswoman and philanthropist Michele Rollins (R) and developer Glen Urquhart (R)--who both have the ability to self-fund their candidacies--vying for the GOP nomination to take on former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) in the general election.

NC-08: The same PPP poll that came out two days ago showing former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) outperforming businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) in the general election also shows Johnson leading D'Annunzio in the runoff, 49% to 39%.

Daily Rundown: 6/15/10

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) is out with a new ad attacking primary rival former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) for being a lobbyist and for attacking McCain's record with the Navy without ever having served himself. Notice the hot-button issue of immigration was absent.

LA-Sen: Two new polls out in this race. A new poll from Magellan Strategies, a known GOP pollster, shows Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 20 points, 51% to 31%. But a new PPP poll shows Melancon down by just 9 points, 46% to 37%. These are the first polls that have been taken of the race since all of the drama with the Gulf Coast oil spill began. That may be a huge issue between the two candidates heading toward the general election.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) just gave another $20 million to her campaign, bringing her self-fund total to a whopping $90 million. She previously pledged to spend up to $150 million out of pocket to win gubernatorial election. In other news, the New York Times reports that during her time as CEO, Whitman paid a $200,000 settlement to an eBay employee for shoving her.

FL-Gov: An internal poll out for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) shows him tied at 40% with former health care executive Rick Scott (R). The most recent public poll from Quinnipiac showed Scott up by 13.

SC-Gov: Attorney General Henry McMaster (R), who finished third in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary last Tuesday, will endorse state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) for the Republican nomination. Most of the South Carolina GOP has rallied behind Haley now except for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who endorsed Haley's runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr (R) is out with an internal poll showing him within seven points of Rep. Ben Chandler (D). The poll found Chandler leading Barr 45% to 38%, but under the all-important 50% mark.

MS-01: An internal poll for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) shows him leading Rep. Travis Childers (D) 50% to 42%. It shows Nunnelee with a 44/8 favorable rating while Childers sits at 49/30.

NC-08: A new PPP poll shows former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) outperforming businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) against Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in the general election. Kissell bests D'Annunzio 48% to 26%, but only leads Johnson by six points, 41% to 35%.

Swing Districts: A new national NPR poll finds generic Republicans leading generic Democrats 49% to 41% in 70 battleground House districts across the country. Sixty of those seats are held by Democrats while only ten are held by Republicans. Before Republicans start to pop champagne and reclaim the House as a result of this poll, they should remember that Democrats have shown in the PA-12 special election that they can win local races with solid candidates focusing on local issues.

NRCC: Rep. Mike J. Rogers (R), who's in charge of the NRCC's incumbent retention program, urged GOP contributors to donate to just nine Republican incumbents who are at risk of losing their reelection bids. They are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), Charles Djou (HI-01), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Dave Reichert (WA-08).

Pretty solid list. The only two I would have added are Ken Calvert (CA-44)--but he looks like he's in pretty good shape--and Michele Bachmann (MN-06), but she is such a prodigious fundraiser that she doesn't need any outside help from NRCC.

Daily Rundown: 6/11/10

CA-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the California Senate race, from Rasmussen, shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five-point lead over former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, 48% to 43%. In other news, Fiorina was caught on open-mic Thursday criticizing Meg Whitman's decision to go on Sean Hannity and making fun of Boxer's hair.

FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.

NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.

NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.

WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.

CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.

ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.

MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.

NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).

NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.

VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."

The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.

Daily Rundown: 6/10/10

CO-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan Strategies released a poll showing Weld County District Attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R) leading former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R), the "establishment" candidate, 42% to 32%. While Buck does seem to be closing on Norton very well (last month's PPP poll had Norton only up by 5 points), this lead looks a bit too large given that the dynamics of the race haven't changed much since last month. But it looks like Norton's seeing a similar Buck surge in her internals and is going up with an ad in the right-leaning Colorado Springs area, trying to make inroads with the kind of conservative voters that have supported Buck so far.

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) 55% to 35%. This 20-point margin is a good deal larger than McMahon's internal poll found yesterday, which only had her down by 13.

KY-Sen: Looks like the wounds between Rand Paul (R) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) are starting to heal. Despite their long-running disputes and differences, McConnell announced that he will host a fundraiser for Paul. McConnell, of course, strongly backed Secretary of State Trey Grayson against Paul in the GOP primary last month.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds newly-minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle with a double-digit lead over Sen. Harry Reid (D). According to the poll, Angle leads Reid 50% t0 39%. While I do think Angle has the slight edge in the race at this point, this lead seems a little much. And Rasmussen has been known to find huge post-primary bumps for Republicans (see: Paul, Rand), so take this with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton--fresh off of his successful stumping for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas--will hold a rally for Reid next week.

NC-Sen: Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), who lost the state's Democratic primary to DSCC favorite Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) last month, is backing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) in the state's June 22 runoff. Marshall is another woman who's running against a DSCC favorite in the form of former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), who finished second to Marshall in the first round of voting on May 4. "Like me, she was told to stay out of her state's U.S. Senate race," Brunner wrote in a fundraising e-mail for Marshall. "Like me, she didn't look back."

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D); an unknown, unemployed veteran who did not campaign, raise or spend money or release ads, and paid the $10,000 filing fee out of pocket; shocked South Carolina Democrats by winning the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Jim DeMint (R) over Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D) on Tuesday. This race was not even supposed to be close, but Greene won by an astounding 18-point margin.

Some attribute it to Greene being black in a state with majority black Democratic electorate. Some attribute it to his name being first on the ballot. But that doesn't seem enough to explain this anomaly and now, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), among others, are questioning whether Greene was some sort of "plant" by the GOP. Clyburn even called for an investigation. Meanwhile, after his win, it was released that he was charged with showing a college student obscene photos last fall. Despite pressure to drop out, Greene is vowing to stay in the race. Could this story get any stranger?

AL-Gov: Businessman Tim James (R), who lost a spot in the GOP gubernatorial runoff to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) by just 208 votes, is asking for a statewide recount. And he's willing to dish out the $200,000 to pay for it. Meanwhile, Bentley is pivoting to the runoff against state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R). The winner of that will face state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) in the general election.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in a statistical dead heat with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) a mere two days after the primary. Brown edges Whitman 45% to 44%.

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac also took a look at Connecticut's gubernatorial Democratic primary. They found Ned Lamont (D) with a comfortable 17-point lead over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), 39% to 22%.

IL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Sen. Bill Brady (R) expanding his lead over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady now leads Quinn by 11 points, 47% to 36%. Their previous poll showed Brady up by 7 points. Brady has been hammering Quinn on airwaves recently, tying the governor to Rod Blagojevich and the state's economic woes.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) released an internal poll showing her with a huge lead, 62% to 28%, over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney isn't missing a beat and will campaign for Haley "soon," meaning before the runoff vote. Romney is likely trying to curry more favor with the likely future governor after she got a bit too chummy with Sarah Palin in the weeks leading up to the primary.

ID-01: A new poll from Greg Smith and Associates shows state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) starting out with a 12-point lead over freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D), leading the congressman 36% to 24%. Minnick spokesman John Foster derided the poll as a "joke," calling Smith "notorious for being inaccurate."

NY-13: Politico reports: "Lou Wein, a repeated unsuccessful candidate for statewide office over the years, says he'll join the Republican primary fray to take on Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon in the fall." Wein will join former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who's been endorsed by the state Conservative Party, and Michael Allegretti (R), who's been endorsed by the Staten Island GOP.

6/8 Primaries Wrap-Up

Last night was very important in offering us some insight into the mindset of GOP voters across the country, and will have large implications on many general election races. Also, many women did very well last night in both parties, and really have the chance to expand their numbers in congress and statehouses everywhere.

In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) withstood a $10 million barrage of attacks from outside labor groups and narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff.

Conventional wisdom was that Lincoln was a goner. But with the support of Arkansas heavyweight Bill Clinton, a strong electoral base in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts (which happened to be having special House elections that night), and a strong closing message ("I'd rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas"), she swam above the strong national anti-incumbent wave.

Looking forward to the general election, Lincoln will have an even greater challenge as she has to swing back to the right to face Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election. Early polling shows Boozman up by anywhere from 17 to 38 points. Election Frontier currently rates this: Lean Republican.

In California, GOP voters chose two female former CEOs, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, as their nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively. They will take on two veteran Democratic politicians, Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, in the general election. Now we'll get to see who California voters dislike more: CEOs or politicians.

The only thing I could learn about Maine gubernatorial race was that the Republican nominee, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), was backed strongly by the local Tea Party movement. Score another win for them.

In Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) scored a major ideological victory last night in the GOP nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). It looked like Reid's only hope would be if GOP voters nominated Angle, given her extreme conservative views. And last night, he got his wish and now has a chance to win a reelection race that most thought was a lost cause.

Angry Nevada GOP voters showed that they don't care about general election viability, or at least aren't willing to compromise their conservative ideological purity to make the best long-term decision of who to nominate. And with Angle, they'll get what they voted for.

This is sure to be one of the nastiest, most expensive, heavily watched, overanalyzed, overpublicized races in the country. The winner of this race will no doubt be on the front page on the day after Election Day.

In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) all-but clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and should now start to look forward to the general election. Despite the (bizarre) barrage of attacks launched against her on all sides, Haley came out unscathed and will most likely be the next governor of the Palmetto state.

As First Read points out, Nikki's success may play a big role in the 2012 presidential primaries. Evey winner of the third-in-the-nation South Carolina Republican primary since 1980 has gone on to become the nominee.

"And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham's censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right."

For the Republican primaries in House races across the county, establishment-picked candidates fared reasonably well last night.

Establishment picks David Harmer (CA-11), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Scott Rigell (VA-02), and Robert Hurt (VA-05) all survived their contested primaries.

But a few insurgent candidates also pulled off wins last night. For instance, state Sen. Brad Zaun (R) whooped establishment favorite Jim Gibbons in Iowa's 3rd congressional district.

And Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was forced into a runoff against insurgent Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), and will probably lose due to his vote in favor of TARP.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Fiorina and Whitman Dominate

As expected, former CEOs Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman will head up the Republican ticket in California in the Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively.

In the Senate GOP primary, with 5 percent of precincts reporting, Fiorina leads former Rep. Tom Campbell 58% to 22%, while Assemblyman and Tea Party favorite Chuck DeVore only has 17%.

Fiorina will face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Whitman is ahead of state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 62% to 28%. Whitman starts off as the slight underdog against Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election.

Both Fiorina and Whitman have lent money to their own campaigns during the primary, and will almost certainly continue to have their wallets open for what should be two of the most expensive races in the country.

June 8 Primaries: What to Watch For

Tomorrow night, the Boston Celtics will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers coming off of an important Game 2 victory in L.A. , where the Lakers will try to shut down the virtually unstoppable Ray Allen.

And, oh yeah, voters in eleven states will go to the polls to select their party's nominees. This is sure to be the biggest primary night so far, so here's the rundown on what to keep your eye on in the highest profile races of the night:

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) will face off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff election in will be one of the most watched races of the night. Lincoln edged out Halter 45% to 43% in the first round of voting, but the word on the ground is that Halter's supporters are more likely to show up to the polls in what is expected to be a very low turnout event. Bill Clinton came to his home state to stump for Lincoln, who has tried to paint herself as more liberal since the first round of voting. Unions have spent tens of millions of dollars on Lincoln attack ads on behalf of Halter, who is more liberal than Lincoln. I'm giving the edge to Halter in this one.

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, is in a runoff against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), who is more conservative. Causey has even claimed that Woolridge might defect to the GOP if elected. Woolridge led Causey in the first round of voting 38% to 27%, but Causey appears to have all the momentum in the race and can boast endorsements from Bill Clinton and two of his former rivals. With low turnout and a lack of public polling data, this race is completely up in the air.

AR-02: Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) will face state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in a runoff. Elliott, who is trying to become the state's first black congresswoman, led Wills 40% t0 28% in the first round. The more moderate Wills, feeling the need to make up that ground, attacked Elliott as "too liberal" for the district. Many of Elliott's supporters thought that "too liberal" was code for "too black" in a state with significant racial tensions.

CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) looks ready to claim the GOP nomination after a hard-fought battle with former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R). Campbell ran ahead of Fiorina in early polling, but fizzled as he ran out of money towards the end. Campbell's closing argument is that he has a better shot of beating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, but it hasn't seemed to resonate with GOP voters. Fiorina has consistently led Campbell by 15 points or more in each poll released in the last two weeks. DeVore, the Tea Party favorite in the race, failed to catch on and has remained quietly in third place.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), after faltering a bit early last month, is poised to win the GOP nomination over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R). This race was absurdly expensive and negative, but the last six polls have shown Whitman up by more than 20 points, meaning she won the ad and message war. Whitman, assuming she wins, will take on Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election, who has built up a sizable campaign warchest of his own.

CA-11: Three Republicans are jockeying to take on vulnerable sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in the general election. Attorney David Harmer, who is known for his better-than-expected performance in the CA-10 special election last year, looks like the establishment choice and can boast an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Also running are self-funding vineyard owner Brad Goehring--famous for joking about "hunting liberals"--and Elizabeth Emken, a former VP of "Autism Speaks" who was endorsed by Rick Santorum (of all people).

IA-Gov: Former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R), the establishment favorite, has a large lead over his two rivals, conservative favorite Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts, according to recent polling. Vander Plaats, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and evangelical leader James Dobson, has to hope for an anti-establishment furor and a surge of conservative and Tea Party activists at the polls to make this race close. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have weighed in on behalf of Branstad, a tactically safe move for the two likely 2012 presidential contenders in this important first-in-the-nation caucus state.

IA-03: In the competitive 3rd district, Jim Gibbons, a financial analyst and former Iowa State wrestling coach, looks to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Leonard Boswell (D). Gibbons is the NRCC favorite in the race and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. His biggest competition for the nomination comes state Sen. Brad Zaun. Gibbons also has to get past Tea Party favorite Dave Funk and four other Republicans. The crowded field may prevent anyone from getting 35%, which is needed to clinch the nomination. If no one reaches that number, the nominee will be decided by party insiders at a special convention soon after.

ME-Gov: This race has been ignored by pretty much everyone. The Democratic and Republican primaries for this race are crowded with over a dozen no-name candidates who all failed to even reach 20% in a recent poll. And 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans were undecided as of a week before the primary. State Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be the slight frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and business Les Otten appears to have the edge for the GOP nod, but the race is so unsettled that anything could happen.

NV-Sen: This is another one of the marquee races of the night, which is to be expected given that the winner of the GOP will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former state GOP chair and casino executive Sue Lowden was the early favorite in the race, but made a series of gaffes including her idea of bartering chickens for medical care and her (alleged) use of an illegally donated RV on the campaign trail. This created an opening for ultra-conservative former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is backed by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth. Angle has recently taken the lead in the polls, and has come under fire from Lowden. Businessman Danny Tarkanian, the most electable Republican who has quietly risen in the polls to tie Lowden, is hoping to be the beneficiary of all the mudslinging between Lowden and Angle and sneak a win tomorrow night.

NV-Gov: Former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) will almost definitely unseat scandal plagued Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in tomorrow's primary. Sandoval, who is obviously a much stronger general election candidate than Gibbons, will face Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (Harry's son) in the fall. On a side note, if Sandoval is nominated, it will mean that two Latino candidates have been nominated in southwestern states (Susana Martinez is the GOP nominee in New Mexico). Perhaps this is a sign that the GOP is starting the realize the importance of the Latino vote in that region?

NJ-03: Since Chris Christie unseated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in 2009, New Jersey Republicans have been bullish about their prospects to unseat freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in 2010. The NRCC's favored candidate is former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), who has run a lackluster campaign so far. Runyan, who is pro-choice, is getting a challenge to his right from Justin Murphy (R), a conservative activist who ran in the GOP primary in 2008. Despite Runyan's slow start, he should win the nomination with some ease. But if Murphy riles up enough conservative support, he could score an upset which would all but ruin the GOP's chances of taking back the seat.

SC-Gov: What a weird race its been. State Rep. Nikki Haley became the frontrunner about a month ago, and earned the endorsements of Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and the Mark Sanford political machine. Then she was accused of having an extra-marital affair by two separate men, neither of which was ever proven. Then, she was called a "raghead" by a fellow Republican because of her Indian descent. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is currently in fourth place in the polls, just touted the results of a polygraph test which "proved" he didn't start any of the affairs rumors, and asked Haley to take a test herself on the validity of the claims. Yet despite all of the ridiculous attacks lobbed against her and the three-ring circus of a primary she's gone through, Haley still leads the pack by a significant margin. But with four serious candidates in the race, it looks like Haley may fall short of 50% and be forced into a runoff with either Rep. Gresham Barrett or Attorney General Henry McMaster.

In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) appears to have a slight advantage over state school Superintendent Jim Rex (D). State Sen. Robert Ford, who is black, is also running and has been in the double digits in some polls, meaning a runoff is possible.

SD-AL: Three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to take on the vulnerable Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) is probably the favorite given his superior name recognition, but has so far has been a mediocre candidate with lackluster fundraising. He'll face state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem, who have both gone on the air ahead of tomorrow's primary and seem to have legitimate shots at winning.

VA-02: Auto executive Scott Rigell (R) is the NRCC favorite in this race. He's a member of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, has a ton of money to self-fund his candidacy, and has been endorsed by Gov. Bob McConnell, Minority Leader John Boehner, and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. But that doesn't mean he's going to win. His two top rivals, Iraq War veteran Bert Mizusawa and Tea Party favorite businessman Ben Loyola, have been aggressive fundraisers and have attacked Rigell for his $1,000 campaign donation to Barack Obama in 2008. Still, Rigell is the heavy favorite to win this one, but probably by a smaller margin than you might think. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in the general election.

VA-05: The NRCC likes state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in this primary, but he certainly is not well-liked by the conservative wing of the party. With his vote for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) tax-increasing 2004 state budget (h/t Swing State Project), he made a lot of enemies in the party. But the conservative wing failed to settle on one candidate, and their vote share will probably be divided between Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, teacher Feda Morton, real estate developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, and veteran Michael McPadden--allowing Hurt to win the nomination.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who ran for the seat in 2008, is facing off against Fairfax Country Supervisor Pat Herrity (R) for the GOP nomination to take on freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in this suburban D.C. district. Fimian has outraised Herrity, but GOP voters may go for the fresh face this time and pick Herrity to face Connolly, who has a large target on his back.

CA: Fiorina and Whitman Pull Away

A new Problosky Research tracking poll finds both former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in great positions to win the GOP's nomination in their respective races.

In the GOP Senate primary, Fiorina leads former Rep. Tom Campbell 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore picking up 12%. Other polls have found Fiorina with similar leads.

Fiorina has a massive financial edge and is flooding the airwaves less than a week out before the primary. Campbell is relying on a single ad touting his electability to close the gap.

In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Whitman leads state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 48% to 20%. All signs point to a blow out in this race.

Daily Rundown: 5/28/10

AR-Sen: While Bill Clinton stumps for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) today in Arkansas, the AFL-CIO is planning a three-day $300,000 ad-buy on behalf of her runoff opponent, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). Early voting begins on Tuesday, after the holiday weekend.

CT-Sen: Another poll, this time from Research 2000, confirms that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) has gotten past his misstatements on his service relatively unscathed. He leads Linda McMahon (R) by 19 points, 52% to 33%.

PA-Sen: Research 2000 also put out a poll in Pennsylvania which found Rep. Joe Sestak (D) leader former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 43% to 40%. This is an 8-point bump for Sestak from their previous poll from earlier this month.

Meanwhile, the White House is seeking to quell the allegations that they offered Sestak a job so he would drop out of the Senate race. They said the job was an unpaid "advisory position" offered informally by Bill Clinton. Don't expect this to be the end of the story.

CA-Gov: State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), the underdog in the GOP gubernatorial primary, is attacking frontrunner Meg Whitman (R) as weak on immigration. Whitman claimed that she wasn't playing hot-button politics, claiming "You haven't seen an ad from me with the border fence...That has been Steve's campaign." Well, it turns out she did have an ad with the border fence. Whoops.

Whitman is walking a fine line on the highly controversial illegal immigration as she tries not to dart right to the primary only to find her support among Latinos dried up. The Latino vote is essential to any statewide California official, as they make up more than 35% of the state's population.

CT-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former senate candidate Ned Lamont (D) leading Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) 41-24 in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) 37-11.

HI-Gov: Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) at long last announced his candidacy for governor today. He will take on Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) in the September 18 primary.

NY-13: The Staten Island GOP voted to nominate attorney Michael Allegretti (R) to face off against freshman Rep. Mike McMahon (D) in November. Former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who has the backing of the New York Conservative Party and is viewed as the strongest general election candidate, will still run in the primary. Meanwhile, McMahon picked up the endorsement of the Staten Island Conservative Party as he awaits the winner of a potentially damaging Republican primary.

The local GOP's first choice for the nomination was former Rep. Vito Fossella (R), who was caught driving drunk on the way to his second family's house in Virginia in the most embarrassing scandal of 2008. Fossella has not ruled out running in the furu

Daily Rundown: 5/27/10

AR-Sen: A new Research 2000 poll of the June 8 primary run-off finds Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) leading Sen. Blanche Lincoln 47% to 44%, within the margin of error. Lincoln, after running as a centrist in the primary, is now darting to the left for the run-off claiming that she is an Obama Democrat (whatever that means). Both candidates trail GOP nominee Rep. John Boozman in the general election.

CT-Sen: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) says he's open to supporting Republican nominee Linda McMahon (R) in the general election. His support for McMahon could further infuriate the Connecticut Democratic Party, which already has a sour relationship with the former Democrat.

NV-Sen: One-time Republican front-runner Sue Lowden dodged a question on whether she thought the 1964 Civil Rights Act should apply to private businesses. This question proved be a huge embarrassment for Kentucky senate candidate Rand Paul (R) last week. Lowden later put out a statement clarifying, "I want voters to know that I strongly support all aspects of the Civil Rights Act, just as I strongly believe it applies to my private business and all others." Republicans need to be careful not to piss off too many minorities (see: Arizona immigration law), or they might just get enthusiastic about voting for Democrats in what should be a favorable year for them.

CA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) leading both Republican hopefuls in the general election. Brown leads Meg Whitman (R) 48% to 36% and Steve Poizner 48% to 32%. This can probably be attributed to the nasty tone that the GOP primary has taken, driving up the negatives of both Whitman and Poizner.

NM-Gov: Two polls show Don Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez leading the pack for the GOP nomination. A New Mexico Politics poll has her up 41-30 over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, and a Survey USA poll has her up 43-33. The polls also show that she would be the strongest general election candidate against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D).

SC-Gov: The controversy over the alleged affair between blogger Will Folks and Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley continues to dominate coverage of the the GOP primary. Folks says he does not know when the rest of the details of the alleged "inappropriate physical relationship" will surface. Haley has categorically denied the relationship, whose existence has yet to be proven. It'll be interesting to see if this affects Haley's status as the front-runner in the primary. Meanwhile, Dick Cheney just endorsed one of her rivals, Rep. Gresham Barrett.

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), who is competing in a June 8 run-off against the more conservative former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), was endorsed by two of his former rivals. Causey, the chief of staff of retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D), finished second to Woolridge in the May 18 primary, but this could be the necessary boost to put him over the top.

GA-12: House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is paying a campaign visit to Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) to talk about the merits of the landmark health care legislation passed earlier this year. The only problem is Barrow didn't vote for the bill. Is this just a massive miscommunication between the two or is Clyburn trying to weaken the conservative Barrow's chance of winning the Democratic primary against the more liberal former state Sen. Regina Thomas?

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is losing support from the same local tea party groups that helped him with his fist-place finish in the May 4 primary. After allegations of serious past criminal activity, drug use, and declaring himself to be a prophet (among other ridiculous things), these tea party groups are throwing their support to former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) in the June 22 run-off.

What's Happening in California?

All eyes are on California for the next big set of primaries, which will take place on June 8.

In the Senate Republican primary, it's a three-way race between former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R), former Rep. Tom Campbell (R), and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R).

Fiorina was initially considered to be the front-runner, as she had the ability to loan herself millions of dollars in one of the most expensive media market states in the country.

But Campbell started to take a small lead in the polls in early May. Then his money started to dry up, and Fiorina continued to flood the airwaves with negative spots against him, and the polls began to tighten up.

On May 21, a Research 2000 poll found Campbell up by 15, which had been fairly consistent with previous polls (giving Campbell a slightly bigger lead). Three days later, a Survey USA poll found Fiorina up by 23. Wait, what?

That's a huge gap between those two polls: 38 points. Conventional wisdom led everyone to believe that the Survey USA poll was the outlier. But two polls since then have confirmed Fiorina's dramatic rise in support, making Research 2000 the outlier.

And DeVore, the most conservative one in the race, has consistently been polling around 15 points throughout all the drama.

So I'm still not completely convinced that Fiorina is really suddenly up by 20, but it does appear that she has the edge over Campbell two weeks out. The winner will face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election.

Meanwhile, in the less exciting but decidedly more negative governor's race, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R)--after seeing her support dip in the same outlier Research 2000 poll--has a strong 20-point lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), who is more conservative.

Whitman has been launching self-funded attack ads against Poizner, who is strapped for cash. Polls show that either candidate will be competitive with former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election.