Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), who was first elected in 2006 in this Tucson-centered district, is one of the top targets for the NRCC in 2010. And as a member of the DCCC's "Frontline" program, she is a top defensive priority for Democrats as well.
Giffords, a Blue Dog, won reelection by a comfortable 12-point margin in 2008. But she greatly angered conservatives with her vote for the health care reform overhaul, who have attacked her for being too liberal for the district. They've also been emboldened by John McCain's 52% to 46% victory over Barack Obama in this district in 2008.
As a result, Republicans have some top-tier candidates running the GOP primary, with former state Sen. Jonathan Paton (a "Contender") and businessman Jesse Kelly (who is "On the Radar") leading the way. Paton is viewed as more of the establishment candidate, while Kelly is backed by the Tea Party movement and has been endorsed by the Club for Growth, a conservative anti-tax organization.
Giffords could benefit from a nasty GOP primary, especially because the primary is just over two months before the general election.
All that's certain is that Giffords will face some tough opposition this fall, especially if the better-funded Paton becomes the GOP nominee. Giffords has shown fundraising prowess of her own, with a campaign warchest of nearly $2 million.
PVI: R+4
Gabrielle Giffords*: Raised $490,000 in Q1; $1,958,000 cash-on-hand
Jonathan Paton: Raised $505,000 in Q1; $408,000 cash-on-hand
Jesse Kelly: Raised $95,000 in Q1; $206,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Lean DEM
Showing posts with label District Profiles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label District Profiles. Show all posts
Sunday, June 13, 2010
District Profile: AZ-05
In 2006, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell (D) road the national Democratic wave and unseated conservative ideologue Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)--who is now running against Sen. John McCain (R) in the Senate GOP primary.
Mitchell was targeted by national Republicans in 2008 in this district centered around Scottsdale and Tempe, but he ended up with a narrow eight-point victory over former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R).
But given that John McCain defeated Barack Obama in this district 52% to 47% in the presidential race, and the fact that Republicans will have a much more favorable political landscape this cycle, the NRCC thinks they have a good shot at unseating Mitchell this time around. Mitchell has also been placed on the DCCC's "Frontline" program for vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
Schweikert is running for the GOP nomination again, but he will not have the field to himself. He'll be joined by businessman Jim Ward (who, like Schweikert, is "On the Radar" in the NRCC recruitment program), physician Chris Salvino, and former state Rep. Susan Bitter Smith.
PVI: R+5
Harry Mitchell*: Raised $196,000 in Q1; $901,000 cash-on-hand
David Schweikert: Raised $102,000 in Q1; $398,000 cash-on-hand
Jim Ward: Raised $150,000 in Q1; $366,000 cash-on-hand
Chris Salvino: Raised $64,000 in Q1; $110,000 cash-on-hand
Susan Bitter Smith: Raised $64,000 in Q1; $56,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Lean DEM
Mitchell was targeted by national Republicans in 2008 in this district centered around Scottsdale and Tempe, but he ended up with a narrow eight-point victory over former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R).
But given that John McCain defeated Barack Obama in this district 52% to 47% in the presidential race, and the fact that Republicans will have a much more favorable political landscape this cycle, the NRCC thinks they have a good shot at unseating Mitchell this time around. Mitchell has also been placed on the DCCC's "Frontline" program for vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
Schweikert is running for the GOP nomination again, but he will not have the field to himself. He'll be joined by businessman Jim Ward (who, like Schweikert, is "On the Radar" in the NRCC recruitment program), physician Chris Salvino, and former state Rep. Susan Bitter Smith.
PVI: R+5
Harry Mitchell*: Raised $196,000 in Q1; $901,000 cash-on-hand
David Schweikert: Raised $102,000 in Q1; $398,000 cash-on-hand
Jim Ward: Raised $150,000 in Q1; $366,000 cash-on-hand
Chris Salvino: Raised $64,000 in Q1; $110,000 cash-on-hand
Susan Bitter Smith: Raised $64,000 in Q1; $56,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Lean DEM
Sunday, June 6, 2010
District Profile: AZ-03
When entrenched eight-term incumbent Rep. John Shadegg (R) announced his retirement, many local Republicans and a few Democrats jumped at the chance to take his place.
Among the crowded Republican field, the biggest name is Ben Quayle, an attorney and investor and son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, who led the pack in fundraising. His biggest competitors (at least financially) appear to be businessman Steve Moak and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who switched from the governor's race.
Also running are former state Sen. Jim Waring, attorney Paulina Morris, former state Sen. Pamela Gorman, former state Rep. Sam Crump, and former Paradise Valley Mayor Ed Winkler.
Democrats seem to be coalescing around attorney Jon Hulburd, who has proven to be a worthy fundraiser.
But seeing as Shadegg weathered the 2008 Democratic surge by a relatively comfortable 12-point margin and John McCain carried the district 56% to 42% over Barack Obama, its hard to see the Democrats taking this seat this time around when enthusiasm will be much lower.
Plus, the DCCC (even though they say they are "targeting" the district) will probably be using most of its resources to defend vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The only hope Hulburd has is if the GOP primary turns very negative and expensive. But don't count on it making the difference.
PVI: R+9
Ben Quayle: Raised $557,000 in Q1; $503,000 cash-on-hand
Steve Moak: Raised $278,000 in Q1; $280,000 cash-on-hand
Vernon Parker: Raised $230,000 in Q1; $179,000 cash-on-hand
Jim Waring: Raised $104,000 in Q1; $115,000 cash-on-hand
Paulina Morris: Raised $104,000 in Q1; $110 cash-on-hand
Pamela Gorman: Raised $37,000 in Q1; $23,000 cash-on-hand
Jon Hulburd: Raised $175,000 in Q1; $331,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely GOP
Among the crowded Republican field, the biggest name is Ben Quayle, an attorney and investor and son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, who led the pack in fundraising. His biggest competitors (at least financially) appear to be businessman Steve Moak and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who switched from the governor's race.
Also running are former state Sen. Jim Waring, attorney Paulina Morris, former state Sen. Pamela Gorman, former state Rep. Sam Crump, and former Paradise Valley Mayor Ed Winkler.
Democrats seem to be coalescing around attorney Jon Hulburd, who has proven to be a worthy fundraiser.
But seeing as Shadegg weathered the 2008 Democratic surge by a relatively comfortable 12-point margin and John McCain carried the district 56% to 42% over Barack Obama, its hard to see the Democrats taking this seat this time around when enthusiasm will be much lower.
Plus, the DCCC (even though they say they are "targeting" the district) will probably be using most of its resources to defend vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The only hope Hulburd has is if the GOP primary turns very negative and expensive. But don't count on it making the difference.
PVI: R+9
Ben Quayle: Raised $557,000 in Q1; $503,000 cash-on-hand
Steve Moak: Raised $278,000 in Q1; $280,000 cash-on-hand
Vernon Parker: Raised $230,000 in Q1; $179,000 cash-on-hand
Jim Waring: Raised $104,000 in Q1; $115,000 cash-on-hand
Paulina Morris: Raised $104,000 in Q1; $110 cash-on-hand
Pamela Gorman: Raised $37,000 in Q1; $23,000 cash-on-hand
Jon Hulburd: Raised $175,000 in Q1; $331,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely GOP
Saturday, June 5, 2010
District Profile: AZ-01
Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) cruised to Congress in 2008 winning by a whopping 17 points over scandal-ridden then-Rep. Rick Renzi (R).
But the 1st district went for John McCain 54% to 44% in the same election, giving Republicans hope that they can take back the district in what should be a better cycle for them in 2010--especially because they won't have a tainted candidate on their hands.
The GOP field is pretty uncertain so far, but the two frontrunners for the nomination appear to be dentist Paul Gosar (who is a member of the NRCC's third-tiered "On the Radar" recruiting program) and former state Sen. Rusty Bowers, a former lobbyist. Attorney Bradley Beauchamp is also running. The primary is on August 24.
Since taking office, Kirkpatrick has been surprisingly faithful to her party given the conservative nature of her district, only voting against them on one of the Democratic leadership's big-ticket items: cap-and-trade. She has earned a spot on the DCCC's "Frontline" program for vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
PVI: R+6
Ann Kirkpatrick*: Raised $272,000 in Q1; $793,000 cash-on-hand
Paul Gosar: Raised $74,000 in Q1; $169,000 cash-on-hand
Rusty Bowers: Raised $64,000 in Q1; $32,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely DEM
But the 1st district went for John McCain 54% to 44% in the same election, giving Republicans hope that they can take back the district in what should be a better cycle for them in 2010--especially because they won't have a tainted candidate on their hands.
The GOP field is pretty uncertain so far, but the two frontrunners for the nomination appear to be dentist Paul Gosar (who is a member of the NRCC's third-tiered "On the Radar" recruiting program) and former state Sen. Rusty Bowers, a former lobbyist. Attorney Bradley Beauchamp is also running. The primary is on August 24.
Since taking office, Kirkpatrick has been surprisingly faithful to her party given the conservative nature of her district, only voting against them on one of the Democratic leadership's big-ticket items: cap-and-trade. She has earned a spot on the DCCC's "Frontline" program for vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
PVI: R+6
Ann Kirkpatrick*: Raised $272,000 in Q1; $793,000 cash-on-hand
Paul Gosar: Raised $74,000 in Q1; $169,000 cash-on-hand
Rusty Bowers: Raised $64,000 in Q1; $32,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely DEM
District Profile: AL-05
After getting elected to Congress as a Democrat, freshman Rep. Parker Griffith defected and joined the Republican Party in December 2009.
But while he was welcomed with open arms by Washington Republicans and the Alabama GOP congressional delegation (who helped his raise a ton of money), Republican voters in his district weren't so eager to embrace him.
Griffith was ousted in the Republican primary by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, who was significantly outspent by Griffith. Brooks painted Griffith as untrustworthy, and it seemed to catch on with voters in the 5th district.
Brooks will start out as the favorite against Democratic nominee Steve Raby, a former chief of staff to former Democratic Sen. Howell Heflin, in November. This conservative-leaning district went for John McCain 61% to 38% in 2008.
PVI: R+12
Mo Brooks: Raised $41,000 in Q1; $214,000 cash-on-hand
Steve Raby: Raised $185,000 in Q1; $186,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely GOP
But while he was welcomed with open arms by Washington Republicans and the Alabama GOP congressional delegation (who helped his raise a ton of money), Republican voters in his district weren't so eager to embrace him.
Griffith was ousted in the Republican primary by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, who was significantly outspent by Griffith. Brooks painted Griffith as untrustworthy, and it seemed to catch on with voters in the 5th district.
Brooks will start out as the favorite against Democratic nominee Steve Raby, a former chief of staff to former Democratic Sen. Howell Heflin, in November. This conservative-leaning district went for John McCain 61% to 38% in 2008.
PVI: R+12
Mo Brooks: Raised $41,000 in Q1; $214,000 cash-on-hand
Steve Raby: Raised $185,000 in Q1; $186,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely GOP
District Profile: AL-02
This the first in a series of 102 profiles of the most competitive districts in the country. Here we go.
Freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) has been about as conservative as you can be in his short 18 months in office. This pro-life Blue Dog voted against President Obama's stimulus package, the health care reform legislation, the cap-and-trade bill, and the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal.
Nevertheless, Bright remains a top target for the NRCC this cycle. The Alabama 2nd, centered around Montgomery, is a solidly conservative district which had been in Republican hands for four decades before Bright took the seat in 2008. He benefited from a nasty GOP primary and a surge in black turnout (the district is 30% black), and still only beat GOP nominee Jay Love by 0.6%. John McCain thumped Barack Obama in the district 63% to 37%. In acknowledgement of these daunting statistics, the DCCC placed Bright on their "Frontline" program for vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
The June 1 GOP primary did not yield a nominee, meaning a runoff will take place between the top two candidates on July 13. The NRCC's favorite in the race is Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, who earned top "Young Gun" recruiting status by said committee. Roby has proved herself to be a solid fundraiser, banking $223,000 at the end of the first quarter. She earned 49% of the vote in the initial primary vote, just shy of clinching the nomination outright.
Roby will face businessman Rick Barber, a favorite of the Tea Party movement, in the runoff. Barber is a much weaker fundraiser, but might benefit in the runoff by having more motivated supporters.
Whoever the Republican nominee is, this race should be a close one come November. But it's the kind of seat Republicans need to win if they want to retake the majority in the House.
PVI: R+16
Bobby Bright*: Raised $176,000 in Q1; $658,000 cash-on-hand
Martha Roby: Raised $127,000 in Q1; $223,000 cash-on-hand
Rick Barber: Raised $44,000 in Q1; $26,000 cash-on hand
Current Rating: Toss-Up
Freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) has been about as conservative as you can be in his short 18 months in office. This pro-life Blue Dog voted against President Obama's stimulus package, the health care reform legislation, the cap-and-trade bill, and the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal.
Nevertheless, Bright remains a top target for the NRCC this cycle. The Alabama 2nd, centered around Montgomery, is a solidly conservative district which had been in Republican hands for four decades before Bright took the seat in 2008. He benefited from a nasty GOP primary and a surge in black turnout (the district is 30% black), and still only beat GOP nominee Jay Love by 0.6%. John McCain thumped Barack Obama in the district 63% to 37%. In acknowledgement of these daunting statistics, the DCCC placed Bright on their "Frontline" program for vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
The June 1 GOP primary did not yield a nominee, meaning a runoff will take place between the top two candidates on July 13. The NRCC's favorite in the race is Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, who earned top "Young Gun" recruiting status by said committee. Roby has proved herself to be a solid fundraiser, banking $223,000 at the end of the first quarter. She earned 49% of the vote in the initial primary vote, just shy of clinching the nomination outright.
Roby will face businessman Rick Barber, a favorite of the Tea Party movement, in the runoff. Barber is a much weaker fundraiser, but might benefit in the runoff by having more motivated supporters.
Whoever the Republican nominee is, this race should be a close one come November. But it's the kind of seat Republicans need to win if they want to retake the majority in the House.
PVI: R+16
Bobby Bright*: Raised $176,000 in Q1; $658,000 cash-on-hand
Martha Roby: Raised $127,000 in Q1; $223,000 cash-on-hand
Rick Barber: Raised $44,000 in Q1; $26,000 cash-on hand
Current Rating: Toss-Up
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