Daily Rundown: 8/3/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R)--who's looking more and more likely to crush former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP primary--leading likely Democratic nominee Rodney Glassman (D) by 19 points, 53% to 34%. If Hayworth is the GOP nominee, he trails Glassman by five points, 43% to 38%. Current rating: Safe Republican.

CO-Sen: It's no secret that Andrew Romanoff's (D) campaign has been having some money issues. Romanoff has long trailed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in fundraising and recently sold his house to get some extra money for the homestretch to the Democratic primary. Now that it seems more plausible that he could win the nomination, many Colorado Democrats were concerned about his less-than-formidable fundraising prowess, especially since he took a pledge that he wouldn't take any money from PACs. But luckily for them, Romanoff has agreed to take money from the DSCC, which takes money from PACs--which he also said he wouldn't do back in January. Win some lose some, Romanoff. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KS-Sen: Survey USA is out with a late-breaking poll showing Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) by 10 points, 49% to 39%. But Tiahrt has slowly but surely gained ground on Moran since May, although Survey USA is the only pollster to test the race. The primary is today.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) edging Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by just two points, 39% to 37%, with 7% for Libertarian Michael Beitler. Their last poll of the race, from June, found Burr up by five points. The only thing that's changed since then is that Marshall has begun to consolidate support among Democrats. Still, there are a huge number of undecided voters because many North Carolinians just haven't paid any attention to the race yet. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by three points, 49% to 46%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: Rasmussen basically confirmed what Survey USA found yesterday: John Hickenlooper is the luckiest candidate this cycle. Their new poll also finds that Tom Tancredo's third-party candidacy is hurting both potential GOP nominees. Hickenlooper leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) and Tancredo by 19 points, 43-25-24. And he leads Dan Maes (R) by 15 points, 42-27-24.

Daily Rundown: 7/27/10

CA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%. According to the poll, independents have dashed away from Fiorina back toward Boxer, which essentially what puts Boxer in the lead. Most other public polls have found a much closer race, and some have even given Fiorina the lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates with small leads over both Democrats. Ken Buck (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D) by six points. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads Bennet by nine, and bests Romanoff by four. Meanwhile, Romanoff is selling his house and loaning his campaign $325,000 to go "all-in" in his insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. Courageous move or act of desperation? I'm betting on the latter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with a new poll that finds that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte (R) may have backfired. She has her smallest lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to date, besting him by just three points, 45% to 42%. While shoring up her Republican base, she seems to have lost moderates in the process--seemingly in part because of Palin' endorsement. In April, Hodes led Ayotte by just 8 points among moderates, and now he's up by 21 points--and her favorability among that group has plummeted. Meanwhile, self-funding businessman Bill Binnie (R) leads Hodes by six points, Hodes leads Jim Bender (R) by one point and Ovide Lamontagne (R) by 5. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by seven points, 44% to 37%, with 15% undecided. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you release an internal poll showing you losing to a virtual unknown candidate. State Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) released an internal poll showing him trailing Rick Scott (R) by six points, 37% to 31%. Most public polling shows Scott with a much larger lead.

MD-Gov: A new Gonzales Research poll finds sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%--within the poll's margin of error. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (R) by three points, 47% to 44%--virtually unchanged from their June poll of the race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NM-01: A new Survey USA poll finds businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) by six points, 51% to 45%. But there's a red flag here, as it seems pretty unlikely that only 4% of voters are undecided this far out from the election. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/23/10

AR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 25 points, 60% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

DE-Sen: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will hold a fundraiser for Rep. Mike Castle (R) on August 17. Bloomberg has supported a wide array of candidates across the country--from both parties--including Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Current rating:

Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will endorse Marco Rubio (R) this weekend in a high-profile boost for the Republican's campaign, which has gotten a bit sleep as of late. This must come as a blow to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign, which has been aggressively courting the business community's support throughout the campaign. There's one little hitch though: Rubio, a Cuban American, opposes the Chamber of Commerce's push to get rid of the Cuba embargo. Current rating: Toss-Up.

IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune may have discovered yet another embarrassing embellishment from Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) past. Since he began running for public office over a decade ago, Kirk often told the story of how he was rescued by the Coast Guard when he nearly drowned at age 16. But the Tribune has found that "there are inconsistencies in Kirk's statements that suggests part of his real-life drama have been embellished." This must be terrible news for the Kirk campaign, which had just seemed to get the media and public's attention turned away from his past. In other news, Kirk released a statement this morning that he supports the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagen. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A new Braun Research poll finds Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 3 points, 41% to 38%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

LA-Sen: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trailing Sen. David Vitter (R) by just one point, 44% to 43%. This result seems very optimistic, as most recent public polling shows Vitter with a 10-20 point lead. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-Sen: It looks like internal polling season is in full swing. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is out with one showing her leading Sen. Richard Burr (R) by two points, 37% to 35%. Our public polling average has Burr up by 10 points over Marshall. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Joe Manchin (D) crushing businessman John Raese (R) in a hypothetical general election match-up, 51% to 36%. While Raese is the most high-profile Republican to enter the race thus far, he will not have the field to himself. Nine other Republicans have already filed to run in the GOP primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) leading state Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) by 19 points, 56% to 37%. Also, Goddard called Brewer a "one-trick pony" today, saying that her only issue is illegal immigration. "The entire [platform] that she has run on is signing SB 1070," said Goddard. "When you ask what else has Governor Brewer done for you, I don't think there is an answer." Current rating: Likely Republican.

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/24/10

AZ-Sen: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) with a much bigger lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP primary than previous polls have found. According to the survey, McCain leads Hayworth by 23 points, 52% to 29%. The last two polls of the race found McCain up by 11 and 12 points, respectively, and McCain was under the 50% watermark in both.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) leading Sen. Harry Reid (D) 48% to 41%. Their poll from right after her primary victory found her up by 11 points, and there has been no other public polling of the race since then. Meanwhile, Reid is up with a new ad calling Angle "just too extreme" for Nevada. The ad slams Angle for wanting to wipe out social security (and calling it a form of welfare) and medicare.

NC-Sen: Rasmussen finds a very close race between Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and Sen. Richard Burr (R) in the first public poll after Marshall won the Democratic primary. The poll finds Burr leading Marshall by only one point, 44% to 43%. Their last poll had Burr up by 14 (!) points. Before the Marshall camp gets too excited over this, Rasmussen has a reputation for finding big bumps for candidates after they win a primary (see: Rand Paul and Sharron Angle). PPP, meanwhile, found Burr with a 7-point lead earlier this month.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), the GOP nominee for governor, picked state Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) as his running mate earlier today. Reynolds is well-liked by state conservatives, which is important because Branstad doesn't have the best relationship with the conservative base of his party. Branstad was under considerable pressure to pick conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), his defeated primary rival, as his running mate. Vander Plaats still hasn't endorsed Branstad, and has floated the idea of running as an independent, which would siphon off a good deal of votes on Branstad's right. There's also word that he might try to challenge Branstad's pick at the GOP nominating convention this weekend.

TX-Gov: Bill Clinton, who seems to be a much bigger campaign booster than Barack Obama these days, endorsed former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) today. He framed the election as a choice between "between a proven, mainstream public servant, Bill White, and one of the most strident, divisive political figures in the nation," referring to White's opponent, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R). Recent polling confirms that White is one of the few Democrats that has a real shot at knocking off a Republican incumbent this cycle.

VT-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Vermont's open gubernatorial contest finds Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) leading all five Democratic candidates in a general election match-up. Secretary of State Deb Markowitz (D) appears to be the strongest general election candidate in the Democratic field, only trailing Dubie 47% to 40%, while her no other Democrat comes within 16 points of the Republican.

MA-10: Former Quincy Mayor James Sheets says he's going to run as independent for the seat left open by retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt (D). This move hurts the eventual Democratic nominee (either state Sen. Robert O'Leary or Norfolk County District Attorney William Keating), as Sheets used to be a Democrat.

PA-11: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) appeared to make a racist comment Wednesday at the financial reform conference committee. Said Kanjorski: “We're giving relief to people that I deal with in my office every day now unfortunately. But because of the longevity of this recession, these are people — and they're not minorities and they're not defective and they're not all the things you'd like to insinuate that these programs are about — these are average, good American people." Kanjorski's opponent, Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta (R), and the NRCC pounced on these comments immediately, saying “Kanjorski’s candid moment reveals a mentality that goes against American values and traditions. The fact that he does not believe minorities are ‘average, good American people’ uncovers a harsh inequity that has no place today, never mind at the seat of government."

NC: Marshall, Johnson Cruise Past Rivals

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) handily defeated former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) in the Democratic Senate runoff by a 60-40 margin yesterday.

Marshall beat Cunningham by nine points after the first round of voting back in May, and received a boost from African-American voters after third-place finished Kenneth Lewis (D), who is black, endorsed her. She also received support from grassroots organizations like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America down the stretch.

This is pretty embarrassing for the DSCC, who actively recruited Cunningham to run (even though he refused a few times) after Marshall was already in the race, and spent nearly $80,000 on his behalf.

Still, they wasted no time in making nice with Marshall. "She is a proven reformer who has taken on the special interests in her state, and has cracked down on lobbyist activity, insurance company abuses and excess on Wall Street," said DSCC Chairman Bob Menendez. "Voters will face a choice between a Democrat who has focused on creating jobs and the needs of North Carolina's middle class and a Republican who puts partisanship ahead of doing what's right."

Marshall appears to be the stronger general election candidate going forward. She's been elected statewide as secretary of state four times and can now claim some outsider cred as having run against two DSCC hand-picked rivals: Cunningham this year and Erskine Bowles (D) in 2002.

However, she has not been a prolific fundraiser so far, which could be a problem because her opponent, Sen. Richard Burr (R), already has a massive $5.3 million warchest at his disposal. If Marshall can get North Carolina Democrats excited and give this election more of an anti-incumbent theme rather than an anti-Democrat one, she might actually have a shot.

In the 8th congressional district, national Republicans can sigh a little easier. Former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) smoked self-funding businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) 61% to 39% in the GOP runoff. D'Annunzio, to say the least, has a very checkered past and would not have been a viable general election candidate.

Members of the House GOP leadership actually formally weighed into this race, endorsing Johnson shortly after the first round of voting in May. He will now go on to face freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in the general election, who seems fairly vulnerable--especially given his lackluster fundraising thus far.

Runoff Tuesday: What to Watch For

Voters in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah will head to the polls tomorrow to vote for their second-round choices in key House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests.

In the Carolinas, there are a number of key runoff races because neither candidate reached the (40% in North Carolina and 50% in South Carolina) threshold to clinch the nomination outright. And in Utah, neither candidate in a few select races reached the 60% threshold to clinch the nomination at their party's state nominating convention.

So here's what you should watch for tomorrow in what we (and everybody else) are calling "Runoff Tuesday":

NC-Sen: In the first round of voting, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) bested former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), the preferred candidate of the DSCC, 36% to 27%. Since then, all of the momentum has swung to Marshall, receiving the endorsements of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis (D) and progressive grassroots movements like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America. The only public poll released since the first round of voting was from PPP, which found the candidates tied at 36%. With extremely low turnout expected and the inherent unpredictability of runoffs in general (see: Arkansas), anything could happen here. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Marshall comes away with the nomination.

NC-08: The GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) has turned quite ridiculous since the first round of voting. Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has come under fire for past criminal activity (including time in prison), drug use, declaring himself a prophet, and refusing to pay child support among other things by local media organizations and his rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R). D'Annunzio, who has self-funded the majority of his campaign and finished ahead of Johnson in the first round of voting, backed out of a televised debate and slapped Johnson with a defamation lawsuit since then. Meanwhile, D'Annunzio has lost almost all support among local Tea Party groups and other outside groups and Johnson has garnered the open support of the House GOP leadership. A PPP poll taken of the race last week showed Johnson leading D'Annunzio 49% to 39%, and showed him to be a much stronger general election candidate. If Johnson loses this one, I'll be flabbergasted.

SC-Gov: After the slanderous first round of voting that included multiple charges of infidelity and outward racism, the runoff between state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) seems fairly...dare I say civilized? The only controversy that has arose since the primary has been about Haley's Sikh heritage, but even that was pretty quiet. The South Carolina GOP is fairly split between the two, but it doesn't really matter as Haley (who was one percentage point shy on clinching the GOP nod outright) looks poised to cruise to victory in round two. The real drama in this race will be who gets the credit for the win (aside from Haley): Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or the Republican Governors Association--which endorsed Haley right after round one.

SC-01: State Rep. Tim Scott (R) is trying to become to first African-American in the House GOP caucus since J.C. Watts retired in 2002. He is taking on Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of late legendary South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond. Scott bested Thurmond 32% to 16% in the first round of voting, and appears to have all the momentum moving forward. He has since picked up the endorsements of Sarah Palin, the House GOP leadership, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Thurmond, meanwhile, has been endorsed by several of his former primary rivals, including the big-named Carroll Campbell III (R).

SC-03: Businessman Richard Cash (R) surprised a lot of people by finishing first in the primary with 25%, with Club for Growth-backed state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) taking 23%. Your guess is as mine for who comes out on top here.

SC-04: The race in this district is almost sure to fuel the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the mainstream media is so attached to. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) beat Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 39% to 28% in the primary, mostly fueled by conservative anger over Inglis's vote for TARP. Since then, Inglis's House colleagues have essentially left him for dead. Gowdy is almost certain to seal the deal tomorrow, making Inglis the fifth member of congress to be ousted in a primary.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was the first member of congress to be ousted this cycle. Bennett finished third at the state GOP nominating convention, making him ineligible for the primary. Businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) won 57% of the vote at the convention while attorney Mike Lee (R) won 42%. Bridgewater and Lee agree on almost everything and both have support from local tea parties, so the primary campaign narrative has been: "do you want a businessman or lawyer in the Senate?" Bennett, who was believed to have more influence among Utah GOP voters than with the conservative convention delegates, has endorsed Bridgewater. Lee has boasted support from conservative ideologues such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), and Freedom Works PAC chairman Dick Armey. The only poll taken of the race showed Bridgewater with a 9-point lead over Lee, but a quarter of GOP voters are still undecided. This is expected be an old-fashioned horse race of a finish.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is taking no chances in reclaiming the Democratic nomination as he tries to stave off a challenge to his left from teacher and progressive activist Claudia Wright (D). Matheson beat Wright by a surprisingly small 55% to 45% margin at the state convention, and has since outspent her 42-to-1 in response. Wright has tapped into Democrats' frustration with Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade as well as his conservative views on immigration and gay marriage. But it's not clear whether Wright can turn that frustration into votes. A poll taken of the race this weekend shows her trailing Matheson 52% to 33%. Utah Republicans are surely rooting for Wright to win the nomination, as she would be a much easier target in the general election.

Daily Rundown: 6/16/10

FL-Sen: Politico reports that Florida Democratic leaders are beginning to entertain the possibility of backing Gov. Charlie Crist's independent Senate campaign in the general election (or at least sitting on the sidelines) if billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who apparently has a ton of baggage, wins the Democratic nomination. Crist, who was left for dead when he was a Republican running against Marco Rubio (R) in the GOP primary, has been actively courting Democrats and independents by darting to the left in recent weeks and might end up as the de facto Democratic nominee. What a turn-around.

NC-Sen: Progressive group MoveOn.org has endorsed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) over state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) ahead of the June 22 runoff. Cunningham is the favored candidate of the DSCC, which has donated almost $80,000 to his campaign.

WA-Sen: A new Elway poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) 47% to 40%. Murray also leads Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (R) 46% to 32% and bests businessman Paul Akers (R) 47% to 33%. Meanwhile, Didier made a trip to Washington to meet with RNC and NRSC officials, who were responsible for recruiting Rossi to begin with.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a dead heat in the Colorado gubernatorial contest. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leads Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 46% to 41%. They found Kasich with a similar lead in their poll from last month. Meanwhile, Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) is tied with Hickenlooper at 41%.

IL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Sen. Bill Brady (R) with a slight edge over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady leads Quinn 34% to 30%, with a large number of undecided voters. A Rasmussen poll from last week found Brady with an 11-point lead.

IA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) with a huge 26-point lead over sitting Gov. Chet Culver (D), 57% to 31%.

MI-Gov: A new survey from Magellan Strategies of the Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with a small lead over his rivals. Hoekstra leads with 26%, Rick Snyder takes 20%, Mike Cox takes 16%, and Mike Bouchard trails with 11%.

CT-04: Easton Selectman Tom Herrmann (R) is dropping out of the GOP primary in this district because of falsified names on his petition. That leaves businessmen Rob Merkle (R) and Rick Torres (R) as well as state Sen. Dan Debicella (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP, in the primary to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D) in the general election.

NH-01: Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (R) endorsed former RNC Committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) in the 1st district GOP primary over his predecessor, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R). This endorsement is really just symbolic, but it probably stings Guinta--who was recruited by the NRCC to run against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)--just the same.

NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller (R) is out with an internal poll showing him running only 12 points behind Rep. Heath Shuler (D), 46% to 34%. Shuler's $1,293,000 in cash-on-hand dwarfs Miller's $26,000 as of the end of the first quarter. But Miller's cash-strapped campaign may get a fundraising boost from the conservative organization Freedom Works, who has just endorsed his campaign.

OH-12: EMILY's List announced that they will endorse Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks (D) in her uphill battle to unseat Rep. Pat Tiberi (R). Brooks has already been endorsed by NARAL, another pro-abortion rights organization, and is a member of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" candidate recruitment program. Meanwhile, Tiberi was announced yesterday to be one of only nine Republican incumbents that the NRCC will continue to fundraise for. Might this be a rare opportunity for Democrats to play offense?

Daily Rundown: 6/10/10

CO-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan Strategies released a poll showing Weld County District Attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R) leading former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R), the "establishment" candidate, 42% to 32%. While Buck does seem to be closing on Norton very well (last month's PPP poll had Norton only up by 5 points), this lead looks a bit too large given that the dynamics of the race haven't changed much since last month. But it looks like Norton's seeing a similar Buck surge in her internals and is going up with an ad in the right-leaning Colorado Springs area, trying to make inroads with the kind of conservative voters that have supported Buck so far.

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) 55% to 35%. This 20-point margin is a good deal larger than McMahon's internal poll found yesterday, which only had her down by 13.

KY-Sen: Looks like the wounds between Rand Paul (R) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) are starting to heal. Despite their long-running disputes and differences, McConnell announced that he will host a fundraiser for Paul. McConnell, of course, strongly backed Secretary of State Trey Grayson against Paul in the GOP primary last month.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds newly-minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle with a double-digit lead over Sen. Harry Reid (D). According to the poll, Angle leads Reid 50% t0 39%. While I do think Angle has the slight edge in the race at this point, this lead seems a little much. And Rasmussen has been known to find huge post-primary bumps for Republicans (see: Paul, Rand), so take this with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton--fresh off of his successful stumping for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas--will hold a rally for Reid next week.

NC-Sen: Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), who lost the state's Democratic primary to DSCC favorite Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) last month, is backing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) in the state's June 22 runoff. Marshall is another woman who's running against a DSCC favorite in the form of former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), who finished second to Marshall in the first round of voting on May 4. "Like me, she was told to stay out of her state's U.S. Senate race," Brunner wrote in a fundraising e-mail for Marshall. "Like me, she didn't look back."

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D); an unknown, unemployed veteran who did not campaign, raise or spend money or release ads, and paid the $10,000 filing fee out of pocket; shocked South Carolina Democrats by winning the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Jim DeMint (R) over Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D) on Tuesday. This race was not even supposed to be close, but Greene won by an astounding 18-point margin.

Some attribute it to Greene being black in a state with majority black Democratic electorate. Some attribute it to his name being first on the ballot. But that doesn't seem enough to explain this anomaly and now, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), among others, are questioning whether Greene was some sort of "plant" by the GOP. Clyburn even called for an investigation. Meanwhile, after his win, it was released that he was charged with showing a college student obscene photos last fall. Despite pressure to drop out, Greene is vowing to stay in the race. Could this story get any stranger?

AL-Gov: Businessman Tim James (R), who lost a spot in the GOP gubernatorial runoff to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) by just 208 votes, is asking for a statewide recount. And he's willing to dish out the $200,000 to pay for it. Meanwhile, Bentley is pivoting to the runoff against state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R). The winner of that will face state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) in the general election.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in a statistical dead heat with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) a mere two days after the primary. Brown edges Whitman 45% to 44%.

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac also took a look at Connecticut's gubernatorial Democratic primary. They found Ned Lamont (D) with a comfortable 17-point lead over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), 39% to 22%.

IL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Sen. Bill Brady (R) expanding his lead over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady now leads Quinn by 11 points, 47% to 36%. Their previous poll showed Brady up by 7 points. Brady has been hammering Quinn on airwaves recently, tying the governor to Rod Blagojevich and the state's economic woes.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) released an internal poll showing her with a huge lead, 62% to 28%, over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney isn't missing a beat and will campaign for Haley "soon," meaning before the runoff vote. Romney is likely trying to curry more favor with the likely future governor after she got a bit too chummy with Sarah Palin in the weeks leading up to the primary.

ID-01: A new poll from Greg Smith and Associates shows state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) starting out with a 12-point lead over freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D), leading the congressman 36% to 24%. Minnick spokesman John Foster derided the poll as a "joke," calling Smith "notorious for being inaccurate."

NY-13: Politico reports: "Lou Wein, a repeated unsuccessful candidate for statewide office over the years, says he'll join the Republican primary fray to take on Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon in the fall." Wein will join former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who's been endorsed by the state Conservative Party, and Michael Allegretti (R), who's been endorsed by the Staten Island GOP.

Daily Rundown: 6/8/10

CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is not waiting for Carly Fiorina (R) to officially win the Senate GOP primary tonight. Acknowledging Fiorina's fundraising prowess, Boxer told her supporters she had a goal of raising $200,000 by the time polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific time tonight.

DE-Sen: Vice President Joe Biden will come back to his home state to campaign for New Castle County executive Chris Coons (D) later this month. Biden had ignored the race since his son, Beau, had decided not to run for the seat. Coons faces a major uphill battle against Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate former governor who has high favorable ratings.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) with decent-sized leads over his two possible challengers. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 7 points and leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham by 10 points. Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll shows Burr with even larger leads, topping Marshall by 14 points and Cunningham by 12. The Democratic nominee will be decided by a June 22 runoff election.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland 47% to 42%. Their poll from last month had Kasich leading by only one point.

PA-Gov: Here's yet another poll from Rasmussen. This one finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) way ahead of Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D), 49% to 33%.

SC-Gov: For once, Nikki Haley is getting a respite from attacks. Attorney General Henry McMaster (R) is going after Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in a new ad, calling him "too weak to be governor" and attacking him for his vote in favor of TARP. Polls have shown McMaster and Barrett to be deadlocked for second place, and whoever finishes in second will most likely join Haley in a runoff.

FL-24: Mike Huckabee endorsed former Winter Park County Commissioner Karen Diebel (R) yesterday to take on freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). Diebel has already been endorsed by former Rep. Tom Tancredo and Rep. Brian Bilbray. She will face off against steakhouse chain owner Craig Miller (R) in the GOP primary, who can self-fund his campaign.

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is suing his GOP runoff rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R), "with a defamation suit again alleging that Johnson has lodged a series of false attacks against him." Johnson came out with an ad last week accusing D'Annunzio of a “life of drugs, crime and time served in prison” and refusing to pay child support, all of which was confirmed by an article from the Charlotte Observer. The runoff is on June 22.

VA-05: Here's some last-minute shenanigans. Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), viewed as the underdog going into today's primary, released an 11th hour robo-call with former Rep. Virgil Goode (R) saying "Jim McKelvey wouldn't care if he went to Washington and made a bunch of people mad." State Sen. Robert Hurt (R), the establishment favorite in the race, accused the message of being misleading, as Goode hadn't endorsed McKelvey.

In Case You Missed It...

Since primary season started almost four months ago, I thought I'd catch everyone up on some of the highlights of what has happened so far.

Illinois (February 2): Illinois kicked off the primary season with a closely contested Senate Democratic primary, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging out former Inspector General David Hoffman (D), despite ethical charges about Giannoulias's time in office. He will face off against Rep. Mark Kirk (R), a moderate, in the fall. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also squeaked out a primary win and will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the general election.

Texas (March 2): Two-term Gov. Rick Perry (R) handily defeated sitting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in the Republican primary, avoiding a run-off election. Polls have shown him with low double-digit leads over the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

Indiana (May 4): With the unexpected retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the winter, Democrats selected Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as their nominee to replace him. Former Sen. Dan Coats (R), despite a checkered past, emerged as the Republican nominee. Early polls show Coats ahead by a comfortable margin.

North Carolina (May 4): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) are headed to a run-off election on June 22, given that neither of them reached the 40% threshold would have guaranteed them the nomination. Third place finisher Kenneth Lewis endorsed Marshall. The winner will face the unpopular Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November.

Ohio (May 4): In the Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general. No surprises in the governor's race, as sitting Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will take on former Rep. John Kasich (R), which is sure to be one of the most negative and nasty races of the cycle.

West Virginia (May 11): In a clear demonstration of the anti-incumbent mood that will surely carry on through November, sitting Rep. Allan Mollohan (D) was ousted by the much more conservative state Sen. Mike Oliviero (D). Oliverio will face former state Rep. David McKinley (R) in the fall. Expect a lot more sitting congressman to be facing significant challenges in their own party's primaries.

Arkansas (May 18): Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was forced into a run-off (June 8) by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who has been running to Lincoln's left. In response, Lincoln has been touting herself as an Obama-Democrat ever since. Bill Clinton's coming down to stump for her, but Halter has the backing of the SEIU and other unions, and his supporters seem more likely to show up to the polls. The winner will be the underdog against Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.

Kentucky (May 18): This race, more than any other so far, had the national media all up in a tizzy last week. Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated establishment candidate Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) in a landslide. The national media took this as a huge surprise and made it a story about "insurgent beats establishment," but if they looked at the polls and the grassroots efforts on the ground, they would have seen it coming, as Paul ran a great campaign (with the help of the Tea Party). However, since winning the nomination, Paul has made several quick gaffes, including saying that he wouldn't have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act and that President Obama was being "unpatriotic" for criticizing BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He will take on Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--who won a close primary--in the general.

Pennsylvania (May 18): Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party in 2009 for fear of losing the GOP's nomination, lost the Democratic party's nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak (D). There have been allegations that the Obama administration--who was more than grateful for Specter's party switch--had previously offered Sestak the job of Navy Secretary if he backed down from the primary, which would be a federal crime. Sestak has stayed mum on the matter, and is looking forward to November, where he will face conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, the former head of the Club for Growth. In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is heavily favored against Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D).

Hawaii (May 22): When's the last time you heard of a competitive race in the Rainbow State? Well, the stubbornness of the two Democrats running in the special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) House seat made it possible. Neither former Rep. Ed Case (D) nor state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) backed down from the race, splitting the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win the seat. Both Case and Hanabusa are running in the September 18 primary, and it's clear there's still bad blood between them.