Daily Rundown: 8/4/10

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Linda McMahon (R) closing the gap a bit on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), trailing him by only 10 points, 50% to 40%. Their poll from last month found Blumenthal leading McMahon by 13 points. In the GOP primary (which is on Tuesday), McMahon leads former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) by a healthy 17 points, 47% to 30%. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen: A new poll from McLaughlin & Associates finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Marco Rubio (R) neck-and-neck in the Florida Senate contest. With Jeff Greene (D) as the Democratic nominee, Crist and Rubio are tied at 37%, while Greene picks up 16%. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the Democratic nod, Crist narrowly leads Rubio 38% to 36%, while Meek gets 16%.

In other Florida Senate news, Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp (R), who was Crist's running mate in 2006, is backing Rubio for Senate over his boss. That's gotta hurt coming from your second-in-command. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), who narrowly lost the Senate Democratic nomination to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), is finally endorsing his formal rival. The more conservative Mongiardo briefly flirted with the idea of backing Rand Paul (R) right after he lost the bitter primary. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) by four points, 44% to 40%. Two weeks ago, Rasmussen found Portman up by six points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

FL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a pair of close races for Florida governor no matter who the Republican nominee is. If Rick Scott (R) wins the GOP nod, as is expected, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 35-31-16. With Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) as the GOP nominee, Sink leads 31-27-20.

MD-Gov: Sarah Palin endorsed energy executive Brian Murphy's (R) underdog bid for governor, passing over likely GOP nominee former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). But instead of wallowing, Ehrlich is trying to use this non-endorsement to his advantage, trying to boost his moderate credentials in this dark blue state. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-01: Only one vote now separates surgeon Dan Benishek (R) and state Sen. Jason Allen (R) from yesterday's GOP primary, with the ever so slight advantage going to Benishek according to the Michigan secretary of state's office. The recount is expected to take at least two weeks, but probably longer. And while Benishek and Allen worry about recount lawyers and fees, Democratic nominee Gary McDowell (D) will get quite the head start going into the general election. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-07: Pennsylvania Democrats helped gather enough signatures to get tea party activist and and "birther" Jim Schneller on the ballot in Pennsylvania's 7th district. His candidacy should siphon off votes from former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan (R)--the GOP nominee--on his right, thereby helping state Rep. Bryan Lentz (D) in a race where every vote counts. The question is: how much of a role did the Lentz campaign have in this? Expect Meehan's people to make some noise about this. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 8/2/10

FL-Sen: After trailing Jeff Greene (D) in the polls three weeks ahead of the Democratic primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wants some a firm statement of support from President Obama. Said a campaign source: "Meek was told he'd have a prominent role and he's expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid insists that both him and the president are behind him and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is holding a fundraiser for him. Still, it might be wise for President Obama to stay out of this one, because if Greene is the nominee, Gov. Charlie Crist (I) may look like the stronger bet. And if Obama endorsed Meek, it might hurt any chance of Crist caucusing with Senate Democrats if he's elected. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Survey USA also put out a poll in Kentucky this weekend, and they found Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 51% to 43%. Most other recent polls have found a similar result. Current rating: Lean Republican.

MN-Gov: A new Star Tribune poll finds good news for Democrats in the open gubernatorial contest. If former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is the Democratic nominee, he leads state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I) by 10 points, 40-30-13. With state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) at the helm for the Democrats, she leads by nine points, 38-29-13. If former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) wins the nomination, he leads by five points, 36-31-15. What's the reason for these consistent Democratic leads in a Republican year you might ask? The answer is independent Tom Horner, who is siphoning off significant Republican support from Tom Emmer (R). In the Democratic primary, Dayton leads Kelliher and Entenza 40-30-17. Meanwhile, Kelliher--who was endorsed by the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party--has been endorsed by the Star Tribune.

NV-Gov: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 19 points, 50% to 31%. Earlier this month, Mason-Dixon found Sandoval up by 11 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Dan Onorato (D) by 11 points, 50% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Current rating: Likely Republican.

SC-Gov: Rasmussen's also out with a new poll of the South Carolina gubernatorial contest, and find state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 14 points, 49% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-12: Lori Edwards (D) is out with an internal poll showing her benefiting from the Tea Party candidacy of Randy Wilkinson, who's taking votes away from Republican Dennis Ross. The poll finds Edwards leading Ross 35% to 32%, with Wilkinson at an impressive 20%. Keep in mind, though, that this is an internal poll--so take it with a grain of salt. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-11: Survey USA is out with a new poll that finds Rep. Heath Shuler (D) edging businessman Jeff Miller (R) by just one point, 45% to 44%. Our current rating of this race is Likely Democrat, but this poll may change that to something more competitive.

Daily Rundown: 7/30/10

FL-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) narrowly leading Marco Rubio (R) and blowing out both Democratic candidates. When Jeff Green (D) is the Democratic nominee, Crist leads 37-32-17. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the nomination then Crist leads 39-33-13. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) ahead by just one point over challenger Sharron Angle (R), 43% to 42%. Mason-Dixon's poll from two weeks ago had Reid up by seven points, but this new result seems more plausible. Still, that Reid is even leading at all continues to stun me, seeing as he was left for dead just two months ago. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Most other public polls have found a much closer race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Rasmussen also put a poll out in Washington state, and found Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by two points, 49% to 47%. Two weeks ago, they found Rossi (R) to be ahead by three points. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

FL-Gov: That same Quinnipiac poll tested the Florida governor's race and found very close races--regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. If Rick Scott (R) is the GOP nominee, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 29-27-14. If state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) wins the GOP's nod, he leads Sink and Chiles 27-26-14. Also: President Obama will hold a fundraiser for Sink on August 18.

MI-Gov: The second half of the EPIC-MRA poll came out today, this time testing the waters for the gubernatorial GOP nomination. They found moderate former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R) narrowly leading the pack with 26%, followed by state Attorney General Mike Cox (R) with 24% and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with 23%. Different polls show each one of these three in the lead, but the consensus is that this race will be extremely close. The primary is this Tuesday.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid by 10 points, 50% to 40%--down from a 21-point lead from earlier this month. This change is pretty inexplicable, with the only major development being that Sandoval said he wouldn't be worried about his children getting racially profiled in Arizona because they "don't look Hispanic." But that gaffe hardly explains an 11-point drop off over a two-week period. Current rating: Likely Republican.

WI-Gov: With Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) as the GOP nominee, Rasmussen finds that he leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) by seven points, 50% to 43%. If former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) wins the Republican nomination, he trails Barrett by one point.

LA-02: The DCCC has announced that it will officially support state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) in the Democratic primary to take on endangered freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R). The DCCC is placing Richmond, who came in third place in the 2008 Democratic primary, in its "Red to Blue" program--giving him a fundraising and infrastructure boost going into the August 28 primary. He still faces state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), businessman Gary Johnson (D), and Eugene Green (D)--a top aid to former Rep. Bill Jefferson (D), whose scandals allowed Cao to steal this dark blue seat in 2008.

NH-01: That UNH/Granite State poll that came out yesterday also tested both of the state's House contests. In the 1st district, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) leads former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) 44% to 39%, bests former RNC committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) 45% to 36%, and beats businessman Rick Ashooh (R) 43% to 35%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-02: In the open seated second district, things look a bit bleaker for the Democrats. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) leads Katrina Swett (D) 47% to 30% and tops Ann McLane Kuster (D) 47% to 29%. Conservative talk show host and 2008 GOP nominee Jennifer Horn (R) leads Swett 35% to 31% and edges Kuster 34% to 32%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OK-05: State Rep. Mike Thompson (R), who finished third in Tuesday's primary, is endorsing Christian youth camp director James Lankford (R) in the August 24 GOP runoff. In doing so, he's passing over former state Rep. Kevin Calvey (R), who surprisingly finished behind Lankford in the Republican primary despite support from groups like the Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, and Concerned Women for America.

Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/27/10

CA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%. According to the poll, independents have dashed away from Fiorina back toward Boxer, which essentially what puts Boxer in the lead. Most other public polls have found a much closer race, and some have even given Fiorina the lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates with small leads over both Democrats. Ken Buck (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D) by six points. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads Bennet by nine, and bests Romanoff by four. Meanwhile, Romanoff is selling his house and loaning his campaign $325,000 to go "all-in" in his insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. Courageous move or act of desperation? I'm betting on the latter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with a new poll that finds that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte (R) may have backfired. She has her smallest lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to date, besting him by just three points, 45% to 42%. While shoring up her Republican base, she seems to have lost moderates in the process--seemingly in part because of Palin' endorsement. In April, Hodes led Ayotte by just 8 points among moderates, and now he's up by 21 points--and her favorability among that group has plummeted. Meanwhile, self-funding businessman Bill Binnie (R) leads Hodes by six points, Hodes leads Jim Bender (R) by one point and Ovide Lamontagne (R) by 5. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by seven points, 44% to 37%, with 15% undecided. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you release an internal poll showing you losing to a virtual unknown candidate. State Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) released an internal poll showing him trailing Rick Scott (R) by six points, 37% to 31%. Most public polling shows Scott with a much larger lead.

MD-Gov: A new Gonzales Research poll finds sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%--within the poll's margin of error. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (R) by three points, 47% to 44%--virtually unchanged from their June poll of the race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NM-01: A new Survey USA poll finds businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) by six points, 51% to 45%. But there's a red flag here, as it seems pretty unlikely that only 4% of voters are undecided this far out from the election. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/26/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) comfortably ahead of former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP Senate primary, 54% to 34%. Their poll from June only gave McCain an 11-point lead, showing McCain's negative ad blitz (and $16 million total expenditure) has seemed to work.

CO-Sen: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), long considered to be the Tea Party favorite in the race, is apologizing for some disparaging marks he made about the Tea Party movement. Here's the original quote from Buck: "Will you tell those dumbasses at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera? God, what am I supposed to do?" It probably won't be anything big, just an unforced error for the new GOP frontrunner. In other news, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed Jane Norton (R) over Buck in the GOP primary, giving her some anti-illegal immigration bona fides going forward. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six points, 48% to 42%. Rasmussen has been the only other pollster to test this race, and they have consistently found small leads for Blunt (usually within the margin of error). While Blunt appears to have the slight edge right now, we still rate this as a Toss-Up.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post is reporting that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) is following through on last week's threat to launch a third party bid after neither flawed GOP candidate got out of the race. Conventional wisdom is that the fiercely conservative and anti-illegal immigration Tancredo will split votes with the eventual Republican nominee in the general election and give Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) a clear path to victory. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

GA-Gov: The National Rifle Association is backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. That might help him to slowly close Karen Handel's (R) 11-point lead from the primary.

OK-Gov: A new Sooner poll finds Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) leading Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) by 16 points in the Democratic primary, 49% to 33%. In June, they found a tied race. The primary is on Tuesday. In general election match-ups, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) leads Edmondson by 8 points and Askins by 6 points--but is still under the 50% mark, meaning she is still very beatable.

TN-Gov: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds that Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is still the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. He leads Rep. Zach Wamp (R) 36% to 25%, with Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R) in third at 20%. In an attempt to shake up the race, Wamp has brought up the idea that Tennessee "may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates." The secession talk, of course, was initiated by Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) last year--and that strategy worked for him in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Haslam leads businessman Mike McWherter (D) by 18 points, Wamp bests him by 7 points, and Ramsey edges him by 5.

NY-13: Sen. John McCain (R) is endorsing former FBI agent Michael Grimm (R) in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Mike McMahon (D). Grimm is considered to be the stronger general election candidate and has the backing of the Conservative Party, but attorney Michael Allegretti (R) has the support of the Staten Island GOP. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) trailing state Rep. Rick Berg (R) by only three points, 46% to 49%. Their poll from last month found Berg up by 7 points, and even more before that. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 7/21/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who suspended his campaign after losing the state GOP endorsement to Linda McMahon (R) in May, is jumping back into the Republican Senate primary with less than a month to go until voters go to the polls. He is starting to air ads again, urging voters to "look at the issues." It's not clear how well McMahon consolidated GOP support when she only had to face economist and Tea Party favorite Peter Schiff (R) in the primary. Since McMahon stopped short of imploding during that time, I'd give her the advantage in this race--but I'd still like to see some polling.

KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 49% to 41%--virtually unchanged from their June poll. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) announced this morning that she will not run in this November's special election against Gov. Joe Manchin (D). She cited concerns and risks about running for her House seat and the Senate seat simultaneously. Now the West Virginia GOP seems to be without a credible candidate. The name being mentioned the most in mining company owner John Raese (R)--who ran for Senate in 1984 and 2006 and has the ability to self-fund his candidacy. With this development, we are moving the race into the Likely Democrat category.

Meanwhile, it looks like Manchin won't have the Democratic primary field to himself: 95-year-old former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) announced his bid earlier today. Hechler, who represents the more progressive wing of the state Democratic party, will be running to Manchin's left.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll shows state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading both Republicans--state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Rick Scott (R)--and Bud Chiles (I) for the first time. When paired up against McCollum and Chiles, she leads 37-23-14. Against Scott and Chiles, she leads 36-30-13. A key finding from the poll: "Scott and McCollum both have very poor favorability numbers. Their primary battle has completely turned off Democrats and Independents, and Republicans aren't seeing them very positively either." The question is: does this negativity give Sink enough room to eke out an unlikely win?

GA-Gov: Like I said earlier today, a 2012 proxy fight seems to being brewing in the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff, with Sarah Palin supporting former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Newt Gingrich backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R). Now, it looks like another 2012 doesn't want to be left out of the fun: Mitt Romney endorsed Handel today. Meanwhile, Georgia Right to Life is backing Deal, on account of Handel's support for abortion in cases of rape and incest.

MN-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three Democrats with small leads over state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I). Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads 40-36-10, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) leads 40-35-11, and former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) leads 37-36-12.

NV-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) with a big lead over Rory Reid (D), 52% to 38%. This result is pretty much in line with most other polls we've seen of this race. Current rating: Likely Republican.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their last poll of the race, from June, showed Kasich with a 7-point lead. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NY-01: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) endorsed Chris Cox (R), the son of the state GOP party chair and the grandson of Richard Nixon. Cox is running against self-funding businessman Randy Altschuler (R) and former SEC attorney George Demos (R) in the Republican primary.

VA-05: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Tom Perriello (D) trailing state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) by a huge 23-point margin, 58% to 35%. Swing State Project, while being a partisan website, does point out some flaws with the polling sample that may have led to increased support for Hurt. The only other poll of this race was a PPP survey from February, which showed a tie race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

GA: Barnes Clinches Nod, Handel & Deal Are Runoff Bound

Former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) cruised to victory in yesterday's six-way Democratic primary, earning 66% of the vote--much more than th 50%+1 needed to avoid a runoff. His closest competitor was Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D), who carried 22% of the vote.

On the Republican side, things are a bit more complicated. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) finished first last night with 34%--but didn't garner enough support to clinch the nomination. She will face former Rep. Nathan Deal (R)--who had 23%--in an August 10 runoff.

State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R), who was the GOP frontrunner for months, finished a distant fourth yesterday with 17%. It seems that his campaign's message was silenced by the high profile endorsements than Handel and Deal received, from Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, respectively (do I smell a 2012 hopeful proxy fight?).

In the 4th district, Rep. Hank Johnson (D) fended off a primary challenge from Vernon Jones (D) and Connie Stokes (D).

In the GOP primary for the open 7th district (being vacated by Republican John Linder), Rob Woodall (R)--Linder's former chief of staff--and right wing talk show host Jody Hice (R) qualified for a runoff. The highly touted state Rep. Clay Cox (R) fell short, finishing in a disappointed third place.

In the 8th district, state Rep. Austin Scott (R) narrowly avoided a runoff against two lesser-known rivals with 52% of the vote. Scott, who has proven to be a strong candidate, will now face Rep. Jim Marshall (D) in the general election.

And finally in the 12th, Rep. John Barrow (D) fought back a health care themed primary challenge from state Sen. Regina Thomas (D) 58% to 42%. On the Republican side, Tea Party favorite Ray McKinney (R) and Thunderbolt township fire chief Carl Smith (R) will face off each other in an August 10 runoff.

Daily Rundown: 7/15/10

AZ-Sen: A new poll from Behavior Research Center finds Sen. John McCain (R) widening his lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). McCain leads Hayworth by a 45-point spread, 64% to 19%, according to the poll. While other public polling shows McCain making gains, this one seems to be a little stronger than the others. Our polling average has McCain up by 26.3 points.

CT-Sen: When Linda McMahon (R) accused former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) of running a sleeper campaign after he suspended his campaign earlier this year, I pretty much laughed it off. But it appears she may have been on to something, as Simmons told the Hartford Courant that he's "thinking about" getting back in the race. "I haven't made any final decisions," said Simmons. "I'm on the ballot. I've never said I'd get off the ballot." Simmons would have a tough fight against self-funding McMahon in the GOP primary, but if he won the primary, he would give the GOP an honest shot at the seat--while still being the underdog against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D). Current rating: Likely Democrat.

NV-Sen: According to Las Vegas-Sun journalist Jon Ralston, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) raised $2.4 million in the second quarter, and still has a whopping $8.9 million in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. A PPP poll from 2 weeks ago found Feingold up by 2. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Meg Whitman (R) leading Jerry Brown (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. Their poll from last month had Brown up by 1, and our average has Whitman up by 0.3 points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Ned Lamont (D) and former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leading their respective primary contests. Lamont leads Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) by 9 points, and Foley leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) by 35 points. In general election match-ups, Lamont and Malloy both lead Foley by double-digits.

GA-Gov: With the Georgia primary quickly approaching, we're getting more and more polling on both parties' races. In the Democratic primary, Mason-Dixon finds former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) by 34 points, 54% to 20% (Barnes needs to clear 50% in order to avoid a runoff). In the GOP primary, it's not a question of if there will be a primary, but rather who will be in it--and pollsters seem to be in disagreement. Mason-Dixon gives state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) an 8-point lead over former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), while Rasmussen finds Handel and former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) tied at 25%, with Oxendine 5 points behind.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 21 points, 57% to 36%. These results are virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

RI-Gov: Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) will reportedly drop his gubernatorial bid today, allowing state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) to take the Democratic nomination without a fight and move right to the general election. Lynch trailed Caprio is polls and in fundraising, and his candidacy just never seemed to fully catch on. What is interesting that Caprio, who is much more moderate than Lynch, is very similar ideologically to former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an independent.

TX-Gov: Rasmussen also has a poll out in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by 9 points, 50% to 41%. This is only a one-point up-tick for Perry since Rasmussen's last poll here last month, but in late June PPP found the race to be tied at 43%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-08: Liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson (D) raised an impressive $325,000 last quarter, but it doesn't come close to matching the massive $803,000 haul he raised last quarter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MS-01: State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) outraised Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the second quarter, $312,000 to $277,000. But Nunnelee still has a long way to go before he can catch up to Childers' cash-on-hand. Childers has $903,000 in the bank, while Nunnelee has just $230,000. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AL: Bentley Wins, Roby & Sewell Advance

State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) defeated former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) 56% to 44% in last night's GOP gubernatorial runoff.

Byrne was clearly the choice of the Alabama GOP establishment--he was endorsed by Republicans such as Gov. Bob Riley, Sen. Jeff Sessions, Rep. Jo Bonner, Rep. Spencer Bachus, and Rep. Mike D. Rogers--and was seen as a more viable general election candidate against state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D).

But Byrne was tainted by a very negative primary campaign against 3rd-place finisher Tim James (R), and Bentley pledged right off the bat to not run any negative ads.

While Bentley ran a strong, clean campaign, in the end it may have the been the influential Alabama Education Association that pushed him over the top. They did his dirty work for him by spending millions of dollars on ads attacking Byrne, who is on bad terms with the union from his tenure as college chancellor.

In the 2nd district GOP runoff, GOP insiders got at least one candidate they wanted. Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R)--a member of the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program--easily defeated bar owner Rick Barber (R) 60% to 40%.

Barber ran an uneven runoff campaign that relied heavily on support from local tea party groups and a few viral YouTube campaign videos featuring the founding fathers.

Roby will now face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D)--one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus--in the general election. Roby may have a unique problem of needing to get to the right of her Democratic opponent. For example, as Montgomery mayor, Bright took a more hard-line conservative position on illegal immigration than Roby.

All in all, this is a seat that Republicans need to win back (it has a massive R+16 tilt) if they want to win back the House.

In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) defeated Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) 55% to 45% in the Democratic House runoff. Sewell benefited from significant financial support from women's groups like EMILY's List and the National Organization for Women. Because this is such a heavily Democratic district, it is almost certain that Sewell will win the general election and become the state's first black congresswoman.

Daily Rundown: 7/13/10

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both GOP candidates, Ken Buck (R) and Jane Norton (R), with small leads over their potential Democratic rivals, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D). Buck leads Bennet by 9 points and bests Romanoff by 5. Norton leads Bennet by 7 points and tops Romanoff by 2. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

FL-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) leading Marco Rubio (R) and both potential Democratic candidates, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and billionaire Jeff Greene (D). When matched up against Meek, Crist leads the pack with 35%, while Rubio has 28% and Meek takes 17%. When matched up against Greene, Crist leads with 34% while Rubio takes 29% and Greene takes 18%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Rubio with a slight lead over Crist. Meanwhile, Rubio set a fundraising record for the 2010 cycle, bringing in $4.5 million last quarter. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sharron Angle (R) leading Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) by only three points. Their poll of the race from last month found Angle up by 7 points, and their poll from right after the GOP primary found her up by 11. The Election Frontier currently rates this as a Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will appoint an interim senator to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) on Friday by 5 PM.

FL-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll finds state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by one point. When matched up against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R), she trails by three points.

GA-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) leading the pack for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Handel takes 32%, while state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) and Rep. Nathan Deal (R) are tied for second with 18%. Polls have been all over the place in this race, but this is the first poll with Handel in the lead--fresh off Sarah Palin's endorsement and some seeming gender-motivated momentum.

MD-Gov: A new PPP poll finds incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%.

PA-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (D) leading Dan Onorato (D) by only seven points, 44% to 37%. The last two poll from this race have found Corbett up by 10 points, a comfortable lead but not out of striking distance, especially since Onorato has shown some fundraising prowess.

MN-06: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) leading state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) by nine points, 48% to 39%. The most striking cross-tab is the gender divide: Bachmann leads Clark by 25 points while Clark carries a majority of women. This is sure to be one of the most expensive races in the country, as the conservative firebrand Bachmann reported raising an astonishing $1.7 million in the second quarter and Clark also raised an impressive $910,000.

TN-09: President Obama endorsed Rep. Steve Cohen (D) in Tennessee's Memphis-based 9th district today. Cohen also received support from several members of the congressional black caucus. Cohen, who is white, is facing a primary challenge from former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton (D), who is black. Herenton's entire campaign message has been centered entirely (and unabashedly) around race.

Daily Rundown: 7/2/10

CO-Sen: As President Obama heads to Missouri for Robin Carnahan (D) and Nevada for Harry Reid (D), and as Vice President Joe Biden stumps for Barbara Boxer (D) in California over the July 4 recess, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)--who's become a primaries kingmaker for conservatives/Tea Partiers--will stump for Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) in Colorado. Buck is trying to keep his image of a conservative insurgent going as gears up for the home stretch of the GOP primary, where he faces establishment favorite Jane Norton (R), a former lieutenant governor.

IL-Sen: Now that the second financial quarter is officially over, I'll be posting a summary of all the major candidates' fundraising and cash-on-hand totals once they all come out. But until then, I'll leak some of the info ahead of time, like this. Despite all of the controversy for embellishing his military credentials and past as a teacher, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) had another strong quarter. He pulled in $2.3 million (which is a hundred thousand more than last quarter) and now has $4 million in the bank.

KS-Sen: Another stop on Sen. Jim DeMint's (R) July 4 recess road trip: Kansas. He'll be stumping for Rep. Jerry Moran (R) as he tries to out-conservative his primary opponent, Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R), who has recently been endorsed by Sarah Palin. It's the battle of the conservative king (or queen) makers.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, almost doubling his haul from the first quarter. His spokesman refused to say how much cash the campaign has on hand.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 43% to 39%. Most other recent polls of the race have shown Fisher up by a few points, and our average shows Fisher with a 0.2% lead. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

MD-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) three points ahead over sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), 46% to 43%. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

WI-Gov: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will stump and raise money for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's (D) campaign for governor. Barrett is a member of Bloomberg's Mayors Against Illegal Guns coalition. Barrett could certainly use the help as he has been lagging in the polls against both potential Republican nominees, Scott Walker (R) and Mark Neumann (R).

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) raised $101,000 from May 13 to June 23, and now has $112,000 in the bank. But before she gets to use that cash to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D), she has to fend off a challenge from businessman Rick Barber (R) in a July 13 runoff. The NRCC clearly favors Roby in the race (she's a "Young Gun") while Barber has done all he can to consolidate the Tea Party movement. Barber raised only $49,000 in that same period and has only $25,000 in cash on hand. But then again, he also has this ad at his disposal. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

SC-05: The NRCC is up with a new ad attacking Rep. John Spratt (D), the chairman of the House Budget Committee, for failing to pass a budget. This is a win-win situation for the GOP, because if the Democrats don't pass a budget, then they look inept at leading. But if they do pass a budget, there will likely be huge deficits that Republican candidates can use to say that Democrats' spending has gotten out of control. Spratt has a strong challenger this cycle in state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The Election Frontier currently rates this race: Lean DEM.

AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is targeting a handful of Republican Senate candidates and House incumbents over the July 4 recess for their votes against card-check legislation, the jobs bill and Wall Street reform. The Senate targets are: Rep. Mark Kirk (IL), Rep. Roy Blunt (R), and Rep. Mike Castle (R). The House targets are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Charlie Dent (PA-15).

DGA: One day after their Republican counterparts announced raising a whopping $19 million in the second quarter, the Democratic Governors Association announced--conveniently right before the holiday weekend--that they raised only $9.1 million over the same period of time. The RGA has $40 million in the bank to the DGA's $22 million. DGA officials are making the case that "the RGA’s coffers have benefited from the troubles that have roiled the Republican National Committee." This may actually have some merit, as the national, Senate, and House Democratic committees have thus far outraised their GOP counterparts.

Wall Street Reform: In case you were wondering, here's a list of the 3 Republicans and 19 Democrats that voted against their parties on the financial reform legislation that was passed on Wednesday. The Republicans who voted "yes" are: Mike Castle (DE-AL, running for Senate), Joseph Cao (LA-02), and Walter Jones (NC-03). The Democrats who voted "no" are basically a who's who of vulnerable incumbents and Blue Dogs: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Marion Berry (AR-01, retiring), Mike Ross (AR-04), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Travis Childers (MS-01), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Bill Owens (NY-23), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Dan Boren (OK-02), Mark Critz (PA-12), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Jim Cooper (TN-05), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-05), and Rick Boucher (VA-09). The bill now moves to the Senate, where things will get a bit trickier for Democrats.

Daily Rundown: 7/1/10

AZ-Sen: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is trying to get back on the offensive against Sen. John McCain (R) by releasing a four-minute video pointing out his ties to convicted Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein. Rothstein used to be a fundraiser for the senator, but the McCain campaign responded by saying: "John McCain couldn't pick him out of a lineup." The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Safe Republican.

FL-Sen: The St. Petersburg Times reports that a judge has scheduled an October trial for Jim Greer, the former state GOP chairman accused of corruption who was hand-picked by Gov. Charlie Crist (I). The trial starts two weeks before election day and could slow any momentum Crist has down the home stretch. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A month after losing a close primary to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) is saying he won't endorse either candidate in the general election. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%, virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. The Election Frontier's polling average finds Toomey leading Sestak by one point, and we currently rate this race a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Survey USA poll confirms that it's going to be Sen. Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in November. Instead of party primaries, Washington state has an open "jungle" primary in which all candidates of all parties compete in the same primary and the top two finishers advance. In the survey, Murray gets 37% and Rossi gets 33%--way ahead of all the other candidates. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) extending her lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. According the poll, Brewer leads Goddard by 18 points, 53% to 35%, a five-point improvement from their poll from last month. If this election continues to be a referendum on the Arizona immigration law, then Brewer should win pretty easily.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has picked a running mate in his comeback bid: former Secretary of State Mary Kane (R). The motive behind the pick seems to be that Ehrlich is looking to shore up his support in Montgomery County, where Kane lives. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is running with his lieutenant governor, Anthony Brown (D).

OH-Gov: It looks like former Rep. John Kasich (R) is making his first move to the center in the general election campaign. He now says he supports "a federal extension of unemployment benefits."

OR-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by one point, 41% to 40%. Even though Magellan is GOP pollster, these results seem pretty much in line with what other recent public polls have found.

WY-Gov: Not that this is actually important, but actor Wilford Brimley has decided to support state Auditor Rita Meyer (R) in the crowded GOP primary. But hey, what other news is coming out of Wyoming anyway, right?

RGA: The Republican Governor's Association hauled in just under $19 million in contributions in the second quarter and has $40 million in the bank. Under the leadership of Mississippi Gov. (and 2012 hopeful?) Haley Barbour, the RGA seems to be doing a lot better financially than their committee counterparts--the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) is facing allegations that "as a police sergeant nearly 20 years ago, he mishandled the investigation of a subordinate officer who had been accused of strip-searching two teenage girls." Perry, who has been endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Mitt Romney, faces a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Joe Malone (R), who is making hay of the issue.

Daily Rundown: 6/30/10

CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.

CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."

IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.

OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.

CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.

HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.

ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.

WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.

LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.

Daily Rundown: 6/29/10

FL-Sen: The Naples News reports that two donors who gave to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign back when he was a Republican are filing "a class-action lawsuit on behalf of all contributors who are demanding their money back after Crist announced he’d run as an Independent."

LA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 18 points, 53% to 35%. Two weeks ago, PPP found Vitter's lead to be in single digits but Magellan Strategies found Vitter up by 20 points.

WI-Sen: A new poll from PPP finds little-known businessman Ron Johnson (R) coming within two points of Sen. Russ Feingold (D). This confirms the results of an earlier Rasmussen survey which found Feingold up by only one. What's more troubling for Feingold is that 62% of Wisconsin voters don't know enough about Johnson to form an opinion of him. Pollster Tom Jensen notes: "A fresher face may be helpful for Republicans as they try to pull off the upset in this race." If Johnson turns out to be a solid candidate and introduces himself well to voters in the state, he could have a real shot at unseating Feingold.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is on the defensive for an ad he released three months ago, which touts his military service. The ad claims: “Robert Bentley put himself through medical school, served his country and healed troops wounded in Vietnam.” But much like Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), Bentley was a Vietnam-era veteran, not a Vietnam veteran. He served in a hospital on American soil. Meanwhile, Bentley is up with an internal poll showing him with a 19-point lead over former two-year college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R)--who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting--in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Yeah, right.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still has a very comfortable lead over his likely rival, former Rep. Rick Lazio (R). Cuomo leads Lazio 55% to 28%, and even does well among Republicans.

OH-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll has some good news and bad news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The good news is that he leads his rival, former Rep. John Kasich (R), by five points. The bad news is that he doesn't even reach the 45% mark, and 52% of Ohioans don't know enough about Kasich to form an opinion of him, meaning his numbers have room to grow. Meanwhile, a new PPP poll finds Kasich leading Strickland 43% to 41%.

RI-Gov: The Rhode Island Democratic Party endorsed state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) over Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Polls have shown Caprio to be a more formidable general election candidate than Lynch.

ID-01: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in another move that is sure to boost his conservative bona fides in one of the most conservative districts in the country. Minnick has previously been the only Democrat endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Meanwhile, his opponent, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), has been trying to get back on good terms with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), who he bad-mouthed by name in the GOP primary against NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward (R). Labrador still has not been added to the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program. "I understand I cannot win without their help," Labrador said of the NRCC. "I need the entire party to be united behind me against a Democrat who can self-fund in the millions of dollars."

MI-03: The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has an astonishingly good track record for endorsements so far this cycle, is endorsing 29-year old state Rep. Justin Amash (R) in this open seat race. Amash, who is seen as the favorite among Tea Party activists, faces former Kent County Commission Chair Steve Heacock (R) in the GOP primary, who has been endorsed by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R) and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce.

RI-01: The Rhode Island Democratic Party officially endorsed Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) for the seat being vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D). The state party passed over its former chairman, Bill Lynch (D), and state Rep. David Segal (D)--who are also running in the primary.

WV-01: Here's some intra-party drama. Former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) is starting up a PAC against the state senator who ousted Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) in the Democratic primary called "Citizens Who Refuse to Vote for Mike Oliverio." Hechler and Oliverio have some bad blood from when they previously ran against each other in a primary for Secretary of State. Hechler said that he didn't care about hurting a fellow Democrat's chances at winning the general election because “Oliverio, through his record, has shown he is further to the right of most Republicans.”

Daily Rundown: 6/28/10

CO-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) in the Senate GOP primary, citing her as the more electable general election candidate. This could potentially help Norton shift back the momentum of the race to her after her Tea Party-backed opponent, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), has led by double-digits in recent polling.

IL-Sen: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias's (D) respite from media criticism following Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) long line of mistakes and gaffes appears to be over. He has been subpoenaed in former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's trial.

IA-Sen: EMILY's List, a group that raises money for pro-choice female candidates, has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) in her underdog bid against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). Polls have been all over the place in this race--some showing her down by single digits and others showing her down by more than 20 points. But this endorsement will definitely give Conlin a financial boost (even though she has her own money to pour into the race) as she takes on the entrenched Republican incumbent.

KS-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in the Senate GOP primary by 20 points, 53% to 33%. Looks like Sarah Palin needs to come stump for Tiahrt sooner rather than later.

SC-Sen: South Carolina law enforcement officials will investigate if any laws were broken with the way that Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene (D) has been representing his personal finances. The focus will probably be on how collected the $10,400 to pay the filing fee to run for Senate while he couldn't even afford to hire a lawyer for the felony obscenity charges he faces.

FL-Gov: Newt Gingrich is the latest Republican to endorse Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) gubernatorial campaign, as he fends off a challenge from self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush were the last two big-name Republicans to endorse McCollum. Meanwhile, Bud Chiles (I) is refusing to drop out of the race despite complaints from Democrats that his candidacy will siphon off votes from state CFO Alex Sink (D) and allow a Republican victory.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race found Haley up by 21 points, but that can be attributed to the large post-primary-victory bumps that Rasmussen has consistently found for candidates of both parties across the country.

MS-01: Following an endorsement from the National Rifle Association last week, Rep. Travis Childers (D) now has the backing of National Right to Life, an anti-abortion organization. It looks like Childers is winning the early battle to establish conservative bona fides in his race against state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R).

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).