Kansas, Michigan & Missouri Primaries Wrap-Up

KS-Sen: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) narrowly defeated Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 50% to 45% last night, and will almost certainly become the state's next senator. This comes as another blow to Sarah Palin, who backed Tiahrt in the primary. Both Republican congressmen were trying to paint the other one as moderate, but by national standards, both of these men are highly conservative--and Moran, like Sam Brownback before him, will provide a consistent Republican vote in the Senate.

KS-01: In the primary to replace Moran, state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R) won the GOP nomination by 10 points, which means--given the heavy Republican tilt of the district--that he will be the next congressman from this district.

KS-03: In the only competitive district in the state, state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) defeated former state Rep. Patricia Lightner (R) 45% to 37%. He will go on to face nurse Stephene Moore (D), the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D). Current rating: Lean Republican.

KS-04: In the GOP race to replace Tiahrt, former RNC Committeeman Mike Pompeo (R) defeated moderate and Planned Parenthood-endorsee state Sen. Jean Schodorf (R), 39% to 24%. He will face a slightly challenging Democratic opponent in state Rep. Ray Goyle (D), who has proven his fundraising prowess, but he's a heavy favorite to win.

MI-Gov: Former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R), a moderate who reached out to independents and Democrats describing himself as "one tough nerd," defeated Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) and Attorney General Mike Cox (R), 36% to 27% to 23%. While Hoekstra and Cox were fighting for the conservative/Tea Party vote, Snyder seemed to sneak by in the center. On the Democratic side, it looks like big labor showed up to support their horse in the race, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D). The progressive populist Bernero defeated state House Speaker Andy Dillon, a pro-life moderate, by an astounding 59% to 41% margin. While Snyder's victory in the GOP primary may be bad news for conservatives, it is even worse news for Democrats, as his moderate nature will make it almost impossible for Bernero to win in what was already going to be a tough race for any Democrat after the unpopular tenure of sitting Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D). Current rating: Likely Republican.

MI-01: We still don't know who won this one. With 100% of precincts reporting, surgeon Dan Benishek (R) currently leads state Sen. Jason Allen (R) by just 12 (!) votes, 27,070 to 27,058. Definitely expect a recount here. The eventual winner will go on to face state Rep. Gary McDowell (D). Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-02: In the race to replace the soon-to-be-unemployed Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), we also don't know won. With all of the precincts in, former state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) leads former NFL player Jay Riemersma (R) by 660 votes. AP hasn't called the race yet, but it's hard to see Riemersma making up that ground in a recount.

MI-03: In the only slightly competitive 3rd district, state Rep. Justin Amash (R)--who had the backing of the Club for Growth--won the GOP primary over the more moderate state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R). Attorney Pat Miles (D) , who has the ability to partially self-fund his candidacy, won the Democratic nod.

MI-07: Former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) defeated attorney and Iraq War veteran Brian Rooney (R) in the Republican nomination, 58% to 32%. Walberg will have a clear chance to get revenge this year, as he was ousted by now-Rep. Mark Schauer (D) in 2008. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-09: Former State Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R) crushed former Oakland County GOP chair Paul Welday (R)--the NRCC's pick in the race--42% to 28%. He'll face freshman Rep. Gary Peters (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

MI-13: State Sen. Hansen Clarke (D) ousted seven-term incumbent Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) in the Democratic primary last night, 47% to 41%. Kilpatrick was hurt by defending her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D), as he withstood multiple criminal counts (which he was later convicted of). Clarke is a shoo-in to win the general election in this dark blue district.

MO-Sen: The Missouri Senate race begins in earnest today, as Rep. Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) easily defeated their token primary opposition. State Sen. Chuck Purgason (R), who made some noise late in the game in the GOP primary, got crushed 71% to 13%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-03: Ed Martin (R), former Gov. Matt Blunt's (R) chief of staff, easily defeated Rusty Wallace (R) 63% to 21%. He'll have an uphill (but not an impossible) climb against Rep. Russ Carnahan (D).

MO-04: Former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) beat state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R) 41% to 30%, and will now take on longtime Rep. Ike Skelton (D), the chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

MO-07: In the race to replace Roy Blunt, auctioneer Billy Long (R) overcame the candidacies of several members of the state legislature to win the Republican nomination in the 7th district. He will cruise to victory in the general election in this heavily Republican district.

DCCC Expands "Red to Blue" Program

The DCCC, trying to appear that they are in fact playing some offense this cycle, expanded its "Red to Blue" list of top challengers in Republican-held seats or open seats by eleven over the weekend. Here they are:

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff of retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D).

AR-02: State Sen. Joyce Elliot (D), who is running for the seat left open by Rep. Vic Snyder (D).

HI-01: State Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D), who is facing Rep. Charles Djou (R), who won the seat in a three-way special election.

IN-08: State Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D), who is for the seat left open by Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), who is running for the state's open Senate seat.

MI-01: State Rep. Gary McDowell (D), who is running for the seat left open by Rep. Bart Snyder (D).

MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark (D), who is taking on the controversial and well-funded Rep. Michele Bachmann (R). Clark recently saw her primary opponent, Maureen Reed, drop out to give Clark a clear shot to the general election.

MO-08: Tommy Sowers (D), who is taking on Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R). Emerson looks to be pretty safe at this point.

PA-06: Manan Trivedi (D), an Iraq War veteran who is taking on Rep. Jim Gerlach (R).

WA-03: Former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D), who is running for a seat left open by the retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D).

WV-01: State Sen. Mike Oliverio (D), who ousted Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) in the Democratic primary.

WI-07: State Sen. Julie Lassa (D), who is running to replace Rep. David Obey (D), who is retiring.

It's pretty hard to ignore how many "Red to Blue" candidates are competing for already-blue districts.

The Fix: "While Democrats insist they are still playing offense this year -- and indeed, it appears they can in at least a handful of districts -- they're mostly playing defense in the new Red to Blue districts.

Of the 26 total Red to Blue districts, 10 are open seats held by Democrats, 11 are held by Republicans seeking reelection, and five are open seats held by Republicans."