Daily Rundown: 8/3/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R)--who's looking more and more likely to crush former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP primary--leading likely Democratic nominee Rodney Glassman (D) by 19 points, 53% to 34%. If Hayworth is the GOP nominee, he trails Glassman by five points, 43% to 38%. Current rating: Safe Republican.

CO-Sen: It's no secret that Andrew Romanoff's (D) campaign has been having some money issues. Romanoff has long trailed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in fundraising and recently sold his house to get some extra money for the homestretch to the Democratic primary. Now that it seems more plausible that he could win the nomination, many Colorado Democrats were concerned about his less-than-formidable fundraising prowess, especially since he took a pledge that he wouldn't take any money from PACs. But luckily for them, Romanoff has agreed to take money from the DSCC, which takes money from PACs--which he also said he wouldn't do back in January. Win some lose some, Romanoff. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KS-Sen: Survey USA is out with a late-breaking poll showing Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) by 10 points, 49% to 39%. But Tiahrt has slowly but surely gained ground on Moran since May, although Survey USA is the only pollster to test the race. The primary is today.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) edging Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by just two points, 39% to 37%, with 7% for Libertarian Michael Beitler. Their last poll of the race, from June, found Burr up by five points. The only thing that's changed since then is that Marshall has begun to consolidate support among Democrats. Still, there are a huge number of undecided voters because many North Carolinians just haven't paid any attention to the race yet. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by three points, 49% to 46%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: Rasmussen basically confirmed what Survey USA found yesterday: John Hickenlooper is the luckiest candidate this cycle. Their new poll also finds that Tom Tancredo's third-party candidacy is hurting both potential GOP nominees. Hickenlooper leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) and Tancredo by 19 points, 43-25-24. And he leads Dan Maes (R) by 15 points, 42-27-24.

CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Romanoff, Meas Take Leads

Survey USA poll came out with a new poll this weekend that finds challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) has snatched the lead from Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Senate Democratic primary.

Romanoff--who just sold his house to keep his campaign afloat--edges Bennet 48% to 45%, according to the poll. Six weeks ago, Survey USA found Bennet with a 17-point lead over Romanoff. This is the first time we've ever seen Romanoff ahead in a public poll.

Bennet's campaign responded with an internal poll showing him up 41% to 37%, and if the incumbent's campaign--which has been leading all along--is putting out an internal poll showing a close race, you know it's going to be close. And Romanoff is surging at the right time because voters go the polls a week from tomorrow.

In the Republican primary, Ken Buck (R) leads Jane Norton (R) 50% to 41%, and still looks to be the solid favorite for the GOP nomination.

In general election match-ups, Buck is tied with Romanoff at 44% and ties Bennet at 43%. Norton leads Romanoff by five points but trails Bennet by three.

Now, over to the state's exciting governor's race, where Survey USA is the first pollster to put a poll into the field since former Rep. Tom Tancredo joined the race as a third-party candidate.

But first, there's been some serious movement in the Republican primary. Six weeks ago, Survey USA found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) to be leading Dan Maes (R) by 28 points, 57% to 29%. Now, after McInnis's campaign has imploded as a result of multiple counts of plagiarism coming to light, Maes now leads McInnis by four points, 43% to 39%.

For the general election, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leads McInnis by five points, 48% to 43%, when its just the two of them in the race. But if Tancredo joins the mix, Hickenlooper's lead jumps to 18.

When it's just Hickenlooper vs. Maes, the Democrat leads by nine points, 50% to 41%. But when Survey USA includes Tancredo, Hickenlooper leads by a whopping 22 points.

So yeah, the conventional wisdom that Tom Tancredo is hurting GOP chances at victory in this race happens to be spot on.

Daily Rundown: 7/26/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) comfortably ahead of former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP Senate primary, 54% to 34%. Their poll from June only gave McCain an 11-point lead, showing McCain's negative ad blitz (and $16 million total expenditure) has seemed to work.

CO-Sen: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), long considered to be the Tea Party favorite in the race, is apologizing for some disparaging marks he made about the Tea Party movement. Here's the original quote from Buck: "Will you tell those dumbasses at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera? God, what am I supposed to do?" It probably won't be anything big, just an unforced error for the new GOP frontrunner. In other news, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed Jane Norton (R) over Buck in the GOP primary, giving her some anti-illegal immigration bona fides going forward. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six points, 48% to 42%. Rasmussen has been the only other pollster to test this race, and they have consistently found small leads for Blunt (usually within the margin of error). While Blunt appears to have the slight edge right now, we still rate this as a Toss-Up.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post is reporting that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) is following through on last week's threat to launch a third party bid after neither flawed GOP candidate got out of the race. Conventional wisdom is that the fiercely conservative and anti-illegal immigration Tancredo will split votes with the eventual Republican nominee in the general election and give Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) a clear path to victory. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

GA-Gov: The National Rifle Association is backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. That might help him to slowly close Karen Handel's (R) 11-point lead from the primary.

OK-Gov: A new Sooner poll finds Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) leading Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) by 16 points in the Democratic primary, 49% to 33%. In June, they found a tied race. The primary is on Tuesday. In general election match-ups, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) leads Edmondson by 8 points and Askins by 6 points--but is still under the 50% mark, meaning she is still very beatable.

TN-Gov: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds that Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is still the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. He leads Rep. Zach Wamp (R) 36% to 25%, with Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R) in third at 20%. In an attempt to shake up the race, Wamp has brought up the idea that Tennessee "may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates." The secession talk, of course, was initiated by Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) last year--and that strategy worked for him in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Haslam leads businessman Mike McWherter (D) by 18 points, Wamp bests him by 7 points, and Ramsey edges him by 5.

NY-13: Sen. John McCain (R) is endorsing former FBI agent Michael Grimm (R) in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Mike McMahon (D). Grimm is considered to be the stronger general election candidate and has the backing of the Conservative Party, but attorney Michael Allegretti (R) has the support of the Staten Island GOP. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) trailing state Rep. Rick Berg (R) by only three points, 46% to 49%. Their poll from last month found Berg up by 7 points, and even more before that. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 7/22/10

AK-Sen: A new Ivan Moore Research poll of the Alaska GOP Senate primary finds Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) crushing challenger Joe Miller (R) 62% to 30%. Miller, of course, was endorsed by Sarah Palin last month and also has the backing of the Tea Party Express--but he hasn't shown the kind of fundraising or organizational prowess that he would need to take down an entrenched incumbent like Murkowski.

FL-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) leading billionaire Jeff Greene (D) by just 3 points in the Senate Democratic primary, 28% to 25%--but 37% of the Democratic electorate remains undecided. Rasmussen is out with some new general election numbers as well. When Meek is the Democrat in the race, Marco Rubio (R) leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I) 35% to 33%, with Meek back at 20%. With Greene in the race, Crist leads Rubio 36% to 34% and Greene takes 19%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Mining owner company John Raese (R) announced that he'll be running for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) Senate seat this November. Raese, who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate against Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) in 1984 and again against Byrd in 2006, seemed to be the West Virginia GOP's next pick after Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) decided to sit this one out--probably because he can self-fund a large part of his campaign. State Sen. Clark Barnes (R) is also expected to get in the race and former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) announced she won't run.

AR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Mike Beebe (D) leading former state Sen. Jim Keet (R) by only 10 points, 50% to 40%. Their June poll of the race showed Beebe up by 24 points, and other public polling has shown mixed results. Beebe was thought be one of the few safe Democratic incumbents this cycle, given his sky-high approval ratings (even in this economy). We'll see if Keet has what it takes to give him a run for his money.

CO-Gov: Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) issued an ultimatum to the two current Republican gubernatorial candidates: get out of the race by Monday at noon or there'll be trouble. More specifically, he said he'll run for governor on the American Constitution Party line. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R)--the GOP frontrunner until it came to light that he had plagiarized several speeches weeks ago--has refused to drop out of the race. The same goes for businessman Dan Maes (R), who has been a weak candidate thus far and is viewed by both sides as unelectable in the general election.

Said Tancredo: "This is a disaster in the making ere. We have this opportunity and we're blowing it. The two candidates we have now are unelectable. One is essentially a fraud and another is experiencing all types of ethical problems. It's just ridiculous. This is unacceptable." He also added that if McInnis or Maes lead Hickenlooper in public polling the day after the primary (August 11), then he would drop out.

Democrats have to hope that Tancredo follows through on his threat, as he would split Republican votes with either McInnis or Maes and allow Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) to cruise to victory in the general election.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Rick Scott (R) leading state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by 14 points in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary, 43% to 29%. The Election Frontier polling average has the self-funding Scott up by 10.7 points.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen is the first pollster after the primary to test general election match-ups in the Georgia gubernatorial race. Former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) bests former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) by 6 points, 49% to 43%. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) edges Barnes by only one point, 45% to 44%.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) crushing former Rep. Rick Lazio (R), 58% to 27%.

VA-09: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Rick Boucher (D) leading state House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R) by 13 points, 52% to 39%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/16/10

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 17 points, 54% to 37%. And if former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) jumps back into the race like he has been hinting he will do, he still faces an uphill climb. McMahon leads him 52% to 25% in the GOP primary, with Peter Schiff (R)--who has started to gain support among local Tea Party activists--at 13%. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

DE-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Mike Castle (R) with a comfortable 11-point lead over Chris Coons (D), 47% to 36%. Their poll from late April had Castle up by 23 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) raised a record-setting $4.4 million last quarter, but that haul doesn't seem so might now that it came to light that his campaign spent $4 million over the same period. What makes matters worse is that he doesn't have a lot to show for it, seeing as Gov. Charlie Crist (I) is beating him in most public polling and now is sitting on more cash on hand. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds some great news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). He leads Sharron Angle (R) by seven points, 44% to 37%, a four-point up-tick for Reid from their last poll in May. It seems that his campaign's strategy of making this race about Angle since she won the GOP primary has been working so far. But there's some good news for Angle today: she outraised Reid $2.6 million to $2.4 million in the second quarter (even though Reid has much more in cash on hand). Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Dino Rossi (R) leading Sen. Patty Murray (D) for the first time since he entered the race. Their poll from last month found the race tied, whereas most other polls have shown Murray with a small lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) appointed his former chief counsel, Carte Goodwin (D), to be a seatwarmer until Manchin runs for the seat himself in November. Goodwin will be appointed on Tuesday and an official campaign announcement from Manchin should come soon after that. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new poll from the University of Wisconsin finds Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading businessman Ron Johnson (R) 33% to 28%, but about 40% of voters are still undecided, meaning this race is up for grabs at this point. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leading both potential Republican candidates within the margin of error. He leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) 45% to 43% and businessman Dan Maes (R) 46% to 43%. But the poll was taken before the full aftermath of McInnis multiple counts of plagiarism became public. A newer Survey USA poll (post-plagiarism) finds that 64% of state Republicans prefer someone other than McInnis as their gubernatorial nominee. Current rating: Toss-Up.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen tested the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Georgia and found former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 59% to 16%. Most polls have found that Barnes has enough support to avoid a runoff, while the Republicans are certain to duke it out in a runoff for a few more weeks.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Don Onorato (D) by 10 points, 48% to 38%--virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 6/21/10

CO-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) leading in their respective primaries. Bennet leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) 53% to 36% in the Democratic primary. Buck, an insurgent who is drawing support from the Tea Party movement, leads establishment favorite former Lt. Gov. Norton (R) 53% to 37% in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Buck leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 9 points. Norton leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 4.

CT-Sen: Investor Peter Schiff (R) collected enough signatures to get on the Republican primary ballot against former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP. Schiff, who was an economic advisor to Rep. Ron Paul's (R) 2008 presidential campaign, didn't get the support of the necessary 15% of delegates at the state GOP convention, which forced him to collect 8,268 signatures to qualify as an official Republican candidate. Schiff has strong libertarian leanings and will be the extreme underdog in the race against McMahon.

FL-Sen: A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) expanding his lead over Marco Rubio (R). While most previous polls have shown Crist with a small single-digit lead (if any at all), this one has him up by 11 points. Crist leads with 42%, while Rubio picks up 31% and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) receives 14% of the vote.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) is hitting back against Sen. Harry Reid's (D) volley of attacks with a new web ad called "Crickets." It charges Reid's attack ads as nothing more than distractions from his own unpopular record as senator and majority leader. It's worth a look.

UT-Sen: A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll released Saturday finds businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) with a narrow lead over attorney Mike Lee (R) in the GOP primary to replace Sen. Bob Bennett (R). Bridgewater, who has been endorsed by Bennett, leads Lee 42% to 33%. But that lead might not mean anything, seeing as 25% of GOP voters are still undecided. Voters go to the polls Tuesday, and most political observers are expecting this race to be very close.

AL-Gov: The results of the recount are in: businessman Tim James (R), who personally paid the $200,000 for the recount, actually lost by more than 200 votes to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), instead of the 167 vote deficit he had on election night. Bentley has now officially earned a spot in the GOP runoff against Bradley Byrne (R).

CO-Gov: That same Survey USA poll also took a look at the state's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, they found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leading Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) 57% to 29%. In general election match-ups, the poll found McInnis leading Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47% to 43%--while Maes led Hickenlooper 45% to 44%.

FL-Gov: That same Chamber of Commerce poll confirms what other recent polling has found: self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R) has jumped into the lead ahead of Attorney General Bill McCollum (R), 35% to 30%. McCollum, who has a reputation of being a lackluster candidate from a couple of previous statewide campaigns, needs to pick up the pace and find a coherent message while Scott floods the airwaves with ads.

SC-Gov: Politico reports that Mitt Romney has donated $42,000 to state Rep. Nikki Haley's (R) gubernatorial campaign. PACs are only allowed to donate $3,500 to a candidate per cycle, but Romney found a way around it: "With one federal PAC and five statewide PACs each maxing out at $3,500 for Haley in both the GOP primary and general elections, Romney has contributed a total of $42,000." Apparently, Romney really wants Haley to take the governor's mansion so he can cash in a few favors with her in the all-important South Carolina primary in 2012--especially since Haley and Palin appear to be very buddy-buddy these days.

NY-23: Here's some rare bad news for Republicans. The state Independence Party just endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R) for their ballot line. Meanwhile, the state Conservative Party has endorsed Doug Hoffman (R), who lost the special election in this district in 2009. Both Doheny and Hoffman are also running for the GOP nomination, so this means that whoever loses the GOP nomination could run on a third-party ballot line--effectively splitting the Republican vote and allowing freshman Rep. Bill Owens (D) a relatively easy path to reelection.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Rick Berg (R) leading Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 51% to 44% in the state's at-large congressional district. Their poll from last month showed Berg with a similar 9-point lead.

PA-03: The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List is targeting freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over her vote for the "pro-abortion" health care reform bill, even though Dahlkemper claims to be pro-life. They have pledged to throw $300,000 into the race to attack Dahlkemper and support her GOP rival, businessman Mike Kelly (R).

SC-01: Sarah Palin joined the House GOP leadership in endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott (R) ahead of his runoff against Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond. This is presumably because they want to have at least one African American in their caucus.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) leads retired teacher and activist Claudia Wright (D) 52% to 33% in the Democratic primary, according the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll mentioned above. This lead seems a bit small, seeing as he's outspending Wright 42-to-1 ahead of Tuesday's primary.

Daily Rundown: 6/16/10

FL-Sen: Politico reports that Florida Democratic leaders are beginning to entertain the possibility of backing Gov. Charlie Crist's independent Senate campaign in the general election (or at least sitting on the sidelines) if billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who apparently has a ton of baggage, wins the Democratic nomination. Crist, who was left for dead when he was a Republican running against Marco Rubio (R) in the GOP primary, has been actively courting Democrats and independents by darting to the left in recent weeks and might end up as the de facto Democratic nominee. What a turn-around.

NC-Sen: Progressive group MoveOn.org has endorsed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) over state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) ahead of the June 22 runoff. Cunningham is the favored candidate of the DSCC, which has donated almost $80,000 to his campaign.

WA-Sen: A new Elway poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) 47% to 40%. Murray also leads Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (R) 46% to 32% and bests businessman Paul Akers (R) 47% to 33%. Meanwhile, Didier made a trip to Washington to meet with RNC and NRSC officials, who were responsible for recruiting Rossi to begin with.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a dead heat in the Colorado gubernatorial contest. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leads Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 46% to 41%. They found Kasich with a similar lead in their poll from last month. Meanwhile, Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) is tied with Hickenlooper at 41%.

IL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Sen. Bill Brady (R) with a slight edge over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady leads Quinn 34% to 30%, with a large number of undecided voters. A Rasmussen poll from last week found Brady with an 11-point lead.

IA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) with a huge 26-point lead over sitting Gov. Chet Culver (D), 57% to 31%.

MI-Gov: A new survey from Magellan Strategies of the Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with a small lead over his rivals. Hoekstra leads with 26%, Rick Snyder takes 20%, Mike Cox takes 16%, and Mike Bouchard trails with 11%.

CT-04: Easton Selectman Tom Herrmann (R) is dropping out of the GOP primary in this district because of falsified names on his petition. That leaves businessmen Rob Merkle (R) and Rick Torres (R) as well as state Sen. Dan Debicella (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP, in the primary to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D) in the general election.

NH-01: Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (R) endorsed former RNC Committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) in the 1st district GOP primary over his predecessor, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R). This endorsement is really just symbolic, but it probably stings Guinta--who was recruited by the NRCC to run against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)--just the same.

NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller (R) is out with an internal poll showing him running only 12 points behind Rep. Heath Shuler (D), 46% to 34%. Shuler's $1,293,000 in cash-on-hand dwarfs Miller's $26,000 as of the end of the first quarter. But Miller's cash-strapped campaign may get a fundraising boost from the conservative organization Freedom Works, who has just endorsed his campaign.

OH-12: EMILY's List announced that they will endorse Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks (D) in her uphill battle to unseat Rep. Pat Tiberi (R). Brooks has already been endorsed by NARAL, another pro-abortion rights organization, and is a member of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" candidate recruitment program. Meanwhile, Tiberi was announced yesterday to be one of only nine Republican incumbents that the NRCC will continue to fundraise for. Might this be a rare opportunity for Democrats to play offense?