Daily Rundown: 8/4/10

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Linda McMahon (R) closing the gap a bit on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), trailing him by only 10 points, 50% to 40%. Their poll from last month found Blumenthal leading McMahon by 13 points. In the GOP primary (which is on Tuesday), McMahon leads former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) by a healthy 17 points, 47% to 30%. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen: A new poll from McLaughlin & Associates finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Marco Rubio (R) neck-and-neck in the Florida Senate contest. With Jeff Greene (D) as the Democratic nominee, Crist and Rubio are tied at 37%, while Greene picks up 16%. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the Democratic nod, Crist narrowly leads Rubio 38% to 36%, while Meek gets 16%.

In other Florida Senate news, Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp (R), who was Crist's running mate in 2006, is backing Rubio for Senate over his boss. That's gotta hurt coming from your second-in-command. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), who narrowly lost the Senate Democratic nomination to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), is finally endorsing his formal rival. The more conservative Mongiardo briefly flirted with the idea of backing Rand Paul (R) right after he lost the bitter primary. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) by four points, 44% to 40%. Two weeks ago, Rasmussen found Portman up by six points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

FL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a pair of close races for Florida governor no matter who the Republican nominee is. If Rick Scott (R) wins the GOP nod, as is expected, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 35-31-16. With Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) as the GOP nominee, Sink leads 31-27-20.

MD-Gov: Sarah Palin endorsed energy executive Brian Murphy's (R) underdog bid for governor, passing over likely GOP nominee former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). But instead of wallowing, Ehrlich is trying to use this non-endorsement to his advantage, trying to boost his moderate credentials in this dark blue state. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-01: Only one vote now separates surgeon Dan Benishek (R) and state Sen. Jason Allen (R) from yesterday's GOP primary, with the ever so slight advantage going to Benishek according to the Michigan secretary of state's office. The recount is expected to take at least two weeks, but probably longer. And while Benishek and Allen worry about recount lawyers and fees, Democratic nominee Gary McDowell (D) will get quite the head start going into the general election. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-07: Pennsylvania Democrats helped gather enough signatures to get tea party activist and and "birther" Jim Schneller on the ballot in Pennsylvania's 7th district. His candidacy should siphon off votes from former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan (R)--the GOP nominee--on his right, thereby helping state Rep. Bryan Lentz (D) in a race where every vote counts. The question is: how much of a role did the Lentz campaign have in this? Expect Meehan's people to make some noise about this. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 8/2/10

FL-Sen: After trailing Jeff Greene (D) in the polls three weeks ahead of the Democratic primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wants some a firm statement of support from President Obama. Said a campaign source: "Meek was told he'd have a prominent role and he's expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid insists that both him and the president are behind him and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is holding a fundraiser for him. Still, it might be wise for President Obama to stay out of this one, because if Greene is the nominee, Gov. Charlie Crist (I) may look like the stronger bet. And if Obama endorsed Meek, it might hurt any chance of Crist caucusing with Senate Democrats if he's elected. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Survey USA also put out a poll in Kentucky this weekend, and they found Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 51% to 43%. Most other recent polls have found a similar result. Current rating: Lean Republican.

MN-Gov: A new Star Tribune poll finds good news for Democrats in the open gubernatorial contest. If former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is the Democratic nominee, he leads state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I) by 10 points, 40-30-13. With state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) at the helm for the Democrats, she leads by nine points, 38-29-13. If former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) wins the nomination, he leads by five points, 36-31-15. What's the reason for these consistent Democratic leads in a Republican year you might ask? The answer is independent Tom Horner, who is siphoning off significant Republican support from Tom Emmer (R). In the Democratic primary, Dayton leads Kelliher and Entenza 40-30-17. Meanwhile, Kelliher--who was endorsed by the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party--has been endorsed by the Star Tribune.

NV-Gov: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 19 points, 50% to 31%. Earlier this month, Mason-Dixon found Sandoval up by 11 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Dan Onorato (D) by 11 points, 50% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Current rating: Likely Republican.

SC-Gov: Rasmussen's also out with a new poll of the South Carolina gubernatorial contest, and find state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 14 points, 49% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-12: Lori Edwards (D) is out with an internal poll showing her benefiting from the Tea Party candidacy of Randy Wilkinson, who's taking votes away from Republican Dennis Ross. The poll finds Edwards leading Ross 35% to 32%, with Wilkinson at an impressive 20%. Keep in mind, though, that this is an internal poll--so take it with a grain of salt. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-11: Survey USA is out with a new poll that finds Rep. Heath Shuler (D) edging businessman Jeff Miller (R) by just one point, 45% to 44%. Our current rating of this race is Likely Democrat, but this poll may change that to something more competitive.

Daily Rundown: 7/23/10

AR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 25 points, 60% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

DE-Sen: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will hold a fundraiser for Rep. Mike Castle (R) on August 17. Bloomberg has supported a wide array of candidates across the country--from both parties--including Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Current rating:

Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will endorse Marco Rubio (R) this weekend in a high-profile boost for the Republican's campaign, which has gotten a bit sleep as of late. This must come as a blow to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign, which has been aggressively courting the business community's support throughout the campaign. There's one little hitch though: Rubio, a Cuban American, opposes the Chamber of Commerce's push to get rid of the Cuba embargo. Current rating: Toss-Up.

IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune may have discovered yet another embarrassing embellishment from Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) past. Since he began running for public office over a decade ago, Kirk often told the story of how he was rescued by the Coast Guard when he nearly drowned at age 16. But the Tribune has found that "there are inconsistencies in Kirk's statements that suggests part of his real-life drama have been embellished." This must be terrible news for the Kirk campaign, which had just seemed to get the media and public's attention turned away from his past. In other news, Kirk released a statement this morning that he supports the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagen. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A new Braun Research poll finds Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 3 points, 41% to 38%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

LA-Sen: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trailing Sen. David Vitter (R) by just one point, 44% to 43%. This result seems very optimistic, as most recent public polling shows Vitter with a 10-20 point lead. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-Sen: It looks like internal polling season is in full swing. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is out with one showing her leading Sen. Richard Burr (R) by two points, 37% to 35%. Our public polling average has Burr up by 10 points over Marshall. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Joe Manchin (D) crushing businessman John Raese (R) in a hypothetical general election match-up, 51% to 36%. While Raese is the most high-profile Republican to enter the race thus far, he will not have the field to himself. Nine other Republicans have already filed to run in the GOP primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) leading state Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) by 19 points, 56% to 37%. Also, Goddard called Brewer a "one-trick pony" today, saying that her only issue is illegal immigration. "The entire [platform] that she has run on is signing SB 1070," said Goddard. "When you ask what else has Governor Brewer done for you, I don't think there is an answer." Current rating: Likely Republican.

Daily Rundown: 7/21/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who suspended his campaign after losing the state GOP endorsement to Linda McMahon (R) in May, is jumping back into the Republican Senate primary with less than a month to go until voters go to the polls. He is starting to air ads again, urging voters to "look at the issues." It's not clear how well McMahon consolidated GOP support when she only had to face economist and Tea Party favorite Peter Schiff (R) in the primary. Since McMahon stopped short of imploding during that time, I'd give her the advantage in this race--but I'd still like to see some polling.

KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 49% to 41%--virtually unchanged from their June poll. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) announced this morning that she will not run in this November's special election against Gov. Joe Manchin (D). She cited concerns and risks about running for her House seat and the Senate seat simultaneously. Now the West Virginia GOP seems to be without a credible candidate. The name being mentioned the most in mining company owner John Raese (R)--who ran for Senate in 1984 and 2006 and has the ability to self-fund his candidacy. With this development, we are moving the race into the Likely Democrat category.

Meanwhile, it looks like Manchin won't have the Democratic primary field to himself: 95-year-old former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) announced his bid earlier today. Hechler, who represents the more progressive wing of the state Democratic party, will be running to Manchin's left.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll shows state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading both Republicans--state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Rick Scott (R)--and Bud Chiles (I) for the first time. When paired up against McCollum and Chiles, she leads 37-23-14. Against Scott and Chiles, she leads 36-30-13. A key finding from the poll: "Scott and McCollum both have very poor favorability numbers. Their primary battle has completely turned off Democrats and Independents, and Republicans aren't seeing them very positively either." The question is: does this negativity give Sink enough room to eke out an unlikely win?

GA-Gov: Like I said earlier today, a 2012 proxy fight seems to being brewing in the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff, with Sarah Palin supporting former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Newt Gingrich backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R). Now, it looks like another 2012 doesn't want to be left out of the fun: Mitt Romney endorsed Handel today. Meanwhile, Georgia Right to Life is backing Deal, on account of Handel's support for abortion in cases of rape and incest.

MN-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three Democrats with small leads over state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I). Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads 40-36-10, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) leads 40-35-11, and former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) leads 37-36-12.

NV-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) with a big lead over Rory Reid (D), 52% to 38%. This result is pretty much in line with most other polls we've seen of this race. Current rating: Likely Republican.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their last poll of the race, from June, showed Kasich with a 7-point lead. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NY-01: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) endorsed Chris Cox (R), the son of the state GOP party chair and the grandson of Richard Nixon. Cox is running against self-funding businessman Randy Altschuler (R) and former SEC attorney George Demos (R) in the Republican primary.

VA-05: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Tom Perriello (D) trailing state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) by a huge 23-point margin, 58% to 35%. Swing State Project, while being a partisan website, does point out some flaws with the polling sample that may have led to increased support for Hurt. The only other poll of this race was a PPP survey from February, which showed a tie race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Highlights From the 4th of July Recess

Well, I'm back from a week-long 4th of July vacation. Apparently I didn't miss a whole lot, but here's some of the highlights.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A Survey USA poll in California found Carly Fiorina (R) and Meg Whitman (R) leading their Democratic rivals in the state's senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively, for the first time. Other polls have shown both races tightening up as well.

CA-Sen, MO-Sen, NV-Sen: President Obama went to Missouri and Nevada to stump for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), respectively. Vice President Biden went to California to help Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) fundraise.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) was endorsed by Dick Armey's Freedom Works PAC as he continues to show signs of locking up the GOP nomination over the establishment favorite, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R).

IL-Sen: A Rasmussen poll found Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by one point.

KY-Sen: A PPP poll found Rand Paul (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) tied at 43%.

NV-Sen: In Nevada, Sharron Angle (R) is threatening to take legal action against Harry Reid's (D) campaign for resurrecting her much more right-wing website from when she was running in the GOP primary.

WV-Sen: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is planning on moving the special election for the state's open senate seat to this November instead of 2012. A Rasmussen poll gives Manchin a 14-point lead over potential rival Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Daily Rundown: 7/2/10

CO-Sen: As President Obama heads to Missouri for Robin Carnahan (D) and Nevada for Harry Reid (D), and as Vice President Joe Biden stumps for Barbara Boxer (D) in California over the July 4 recess, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)--who's become a primaries kingmaker for conservatives/Tea Partiers--will stump for Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) in Colorado. Buck is trying to keep his image of a conservative insurgent going as gears up for the home stretch of the GOP primary, where he faces establishment favorite Jane Norton (R), a former lieutenant governor.

IL-Sen: Now that the second financial quarter is officially over, I'll be posting a summary of all the major candidates' fundraising and cash-on-hand totals once they all come out. But until then, I'll leak some of the info ahead of time, like this. Despite all of the controversy for embellishing his military credentials and past as a teacher, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) had another strong quarter. He pulled in $2.3 million (which is a hundred thousand more than last quarter) and now has $4 million in the bank.

KS-Sen: Another stop on Sen. Jim DeMint's (R) July 4 recess road trip: Kansas. He'll be stumping for Rep. Jerry Moran (R) as he tries to out-conservative his primary opponent, Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R), who has recently been endorsed by Sarah Palin. It's the battle of the conservative king (or queen) makers.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, almost doubling his haul from the first quarter. His spokesman refused to say how much cash the campaign has on hand.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 43% to 39%. Most other recent polls of the race have shown Fisher up by a few points, and our average shows Fisher with a 0.2% lead. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

MD-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) three points ahead over sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), 46% to 43%. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

WI-Gov: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will stump and raise money for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's (D) campaign for governor. Barrett is a member of Bloomberg's Mayors Against Illegal Guns coalition. Barrett could certainly use the help as he has been lagging in the polls against both potential Republican nominees, Scott Walker (R) and Mark Neumann (R).

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) raised $101,000 from May 13 to June 23, and now has $112,000 in the bank. But before she gets to use that cash to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D), she has to fend off a challenge from businessman Rick Barber (R) in a July 13 runoff. The NRCC clearly favors Roby in the race (she's a "Young Gun") while Barber has done all he can to consolidate the Tea Party movement. Barber raised only $49,000 in that same period and has only $25,000 in cash on hand. But then again, he also has this ad at his disposal. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

SC-05: The NRCC is up with a new ad attacking Rep. John Spratt (D), the chairman of the House Budget Committee, for failing to pass a budget. This is a win-win situation for the GOP, because if the Democrats don't pass a budget, then they look inept at leading. But if they do pass a budget, there will likely be huge deficits that Republican candidates can use to say that Democrats' spending has gotten out of control. Spratt has a strong challenger this cycle in state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The Election Frontier currently rates this race: Lean DEM.

AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is targeting a handful of Republican Senate candidates and House incumbents over the July 4 recess for their votes against card-check legislation, the jobs bill and Wall Street reform. The Senate targets are: Rep. Mark Kirk (IL), Rep. Roy Blunt (R), and Rep. Mike Castle (R). The House targets are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Charlie Dent (PA-15).

DGA: One day after their Republican counterparts announced raising a whopping $19 million in the second quarter, the Democratic Governors Association announced--conveniently right before the holiday weekend--that they raised only $9.1 million over the same period of time. The RGA has $40 million in the bank to the DGA's $22 million. DGA officials are making the case that "the RGA’s coffers have benefited from the troubles that have roiled the Republican National Committee." This may actually have some merit, as the national, Senate, and House Democratic committees have thus far outraised their GOP counterparts.

Wall Street Reform: In case you were wondering, here's a list of the 3 Republicans and 19 Democrats that voted against their parties on the financial reform legislation that was passed on Wednesday. The Republicans who voted "yes" are: Mike Castle (DE-AL, running for Senate), Joseph Cao (LA-02), and Walter Jones (NC-03). The Democrats who voted "no" are basically a who's who of vulnerable incumbents and Blue Dogs: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Marion Berry (AR-01, retiring), Mike Ross (AR-04), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Travis Childers (MS-01), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Bill Owens (NY-23), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Dan Boren (OK-02), Mark Critz (PA-12), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Jim Cooper (TN-05), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-05), and Rick Boucher (VA-09). The bill now moves to the Senate, where things will get a bit trickier for Democrats.

Daily Rundown: 7/1/10

AZ-Sen: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is trying to get back on the offensive against Sen. John McCain (R) by releasing a four-minute video pointing out his ties to convicted Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein. Rothstein used to be a fundraiser for the senator, but the McCain campaign responded by saying: "John McCain couldn't pick him out of a lineup." The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Safe Republican.

FL-Sen: The St. Petersburg Times reports that a judge has scheduled an October trial for Jim Greer, the former state GOP chairman accused of corruption who was hand-picked by Gov. Charlie Crist (I). The trial starts two weeks before election day and could slow any momentum Crist has down the home stretch. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A month after losing a close primary to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) is saying he won't endorse either candidate in the general election. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%, virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. The Election Frontier's polling average finds Toomey leading Sestak by one point, and we currently rate this race a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Survey USA poll confirms that it's going to be Sen. Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in November. Instead of party primaries, Washington state has an open "jungle" primary in which all candidates of all parties compete in the same primary and the top two finishers advance. In the survey, Murray gets 37% and Rossi gets 33%--way ahead of all the other candidates. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) extending her lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. According the poll, Brewer leads Goddard by 18 points, 53% to 35%, a five-point improvement from their poll from last month. If this election continues to be a referendum on the Arizona immigration law, then Brewer should win pretty easily.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has picked a running mate in his comeback bid: former Secretary of State Mary Kane (R). The motive behind the pick seems to be that Ehrlich is looking to shore up his support in Montgomery County, where Kane lives. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is running with his lieutenant governor, Anthony Brown (D).

OH-Gov: It looks like former Rep. John Kasich (R) is making his first move to the center in the general election campaign. He now says he supports "a federal extension of unemployment benefits."

OR-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by one point, 41% to 40%. Even though Magellan is GOP pollster, these results seem pretty much in line with what other recent public polls have found.

WY-Gov: Not that this is actually important, but actor Wilford Brimley has decided to support state Auditor Rita Meyer (R) in the crowded GOP primary. But hey, what other news is coming out of Wyoming anyway, right?

RGA: The Republican Governor's Association hauled in just under $19 million in contributions in the second quarter and has $40 million in the bank. Under the leadership of Mississippi Gov. (and 2012 hopeful?) Haley Barbour, the RGA seems to be doing a lot better financially than their committee counterparts--the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) is facing allegations that "as a police sergeant nearly 20 years ago, he mishandled the investigation of a subordinate officer who had been accused of strip-searching two teenage girls." Perry, who has been endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Mitt Romney, faces a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Joe Malone (R), who is making hay of the issue.

Daily Rundown: 6/30/10

CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.

CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."

IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.

OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.

CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.

HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.

ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.

WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.

LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.

Daily Rundown: 6/14/10

IL-Sen: Conservative businessman Mike Niecestro is reportedly mulling an independent run for the state's open Senate seat. Said Niecestro: "There is no difference between Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D)." He added: "I am a disgusted Republican who has had it with the people the party throws at us." He said that he would be willing to throw in $1 million out of his own pocket to boost his chances. Conventional wisdom is that if Niecestro joins the race, it could be a big boon to Giannoulias as he could siphon votes away on Kirk's right flank.

KY-Sen: The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Rand Paul (R) is not a board-certified ophthalmologist like he claims to be, and that he hasn't been for the past five years. Asked when he would comment on the issue, Paul responded: "Uh, you know, never... What does this have to do with our election?"

SC-Sen: Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D), the Democrat that was defeated by political unknown Alvin Greene (D) in Tuesday's primary, is calling for a formal investigation of the election results. He claims that investigation is not targeted against Greene, but rather against the touch-screen voting machines. White House adviser David Axelrod also weighed in on the situation, saying the result "doesn't appear" legitimate.

AL-Gov: As state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) pivots toward the July 13 runoff against former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R), he has started to shake up his staff and bring in former aides to Mike Huckabee (R). He hired Bryan Sanders, a top aide to Huckabee's 2008 presidential campaign, as his new campaign manager, among others.

FL-Gov: Mitt Romney will endorse and fundraise for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) in his primary battle against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Meanwhile, Scott has challenged McCollum to a series of four televised debates ahead of the August 24 primary.

MI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three of the top GOP contenders (Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Attorney Gen. Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder) leading both Democratic candidates (State House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero). Snyder still appears to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. Meanwhile, Cox picked up the endorsement of the anti-abortion group "Right to Life Michigan."

OH-Gov: Here's some good news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The NRA is endorsing him over former Rep. John Kasich (R) in his reelection bid.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) outperforming her runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), in general election match-ups with state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D). The poll finds Haley leading Sheheen by 21 points, while Barrett only leads by 8 points. Meanwhile, despite early whispers of her being whisked to the national stage, Haley is promising to serve a full term if elected.

AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber (R), the Tea Party favorite in the Alabama 2nd district runoff, is up with an...interesting new ad called "Gather Your Armies". You just have to see it for yourself. Barber will face Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite, in the July 13 runoff.

Daily Rundown: 6/10/10

CO-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan Strategies released a poll showing Weld County District Attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R) leading former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R), the "establishment" candidate, 42% to 32%. While Buck does seem to be closing on Norton very well (last month's PPP poll had Norton only up by 5 points), this lead looks a bit too large given that the dynamics of the race haven't changed much since last month. But it looks like Norton's seeing a similar Buck surge in her internals and is going up with an ad in the right-leaning Colorado Springs area, trying to make inroads with the kind of conservative voters that have supported Buck so far.

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) 55% to 35%. This 20-point margin is a good deal larger than McMahon's internal poll found yesterday, which only had her down by 13.

KY-Sen: Looks like the wounds between Rand Paul (R) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) are starting to heal. Despite their long-running disputes and differences, McConnell announced that he will host a fundraiser for Paul. McConnell, of course, strongly backed Secretary of State Trey Grayson against Paul in the GOP primary last month.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds newly-minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle with a double-digit lead over Sen. Harry Reid (D). According to the poll, Angle leads Reid 50% t0 39%. While I do think Angle has the slight edge in the race at this point, this lead seems a little much. And Rasmussen has been known to find huge post-primary bumps for Republicans (see: Paul, Rand), so take this with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton--fresh off of his successful stumping for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas--will hold a rally for Reid next week.

NC-Sen: Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), who lost the state's Democratic primary to DSCC favorite Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) last month, is backing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) in the state's June 22 runoff. Marshall is another woman who's running against a DSCC favorite in the form of former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), who finished second to Marshall in the first round of voting on May 4. "Like me, she was told to stay out of her state's U.S. Senate race," Brunner wrote in a fundraising e-mail for Marshall. "Like me, she didn't look back."

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D); an unknown, unemployed veteran who did not campaign, raise or spend money or release ads, and paid the $10,000 filing fee out of pocket; shocked South Carolina Democrats by winning the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Jim DeMint (R) over Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D) on Tuesday. This race was not even supposed to be close, but Greene won by an astounding 18-point margin.

Some attribute it to Greene being black in a state with majority black Democratic electorate. Some attribute it to his name being first on the ballot. But that doesn't seem enough to explain this anomaly and now, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), among others, are questioning whether Greene was some sort of "plant" by the GOP. Clyburn even called for an investigation. Meanwhile, after his win, it was released that he was charged with showing a college student obscene photos last fall. Despite pressure to drop out, Greene is vowing to stay in the race. Could this story get any stranger?

AL-Gov: Businessman Tim James (R), who lost a spot in the GOP gubernatorial runoff to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) by just 208 votes, is asking for a statewide recount. And he's willing to dish out the $200,000 to pay for it. Meanwhile, Bentley is pivoting to the runoff against state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R). The winner of that will face state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) in the general election.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in a statistical dead heat with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) a mere two days after the primary. Brown edges Whitman 45% to 44%.

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac also took a look at Connecticut's gubernatorial Democratic primary. They found Ned Lamont (D) with a comfortable 17-point lead over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), 39% to 22%.

IL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Sen. Bill Brady (R) expanding his lead over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady now leads Quinn by 11 points, 47% to 36%. Their previous poll showed Brady up by 7 points. Brady has been hammering Quinn on airwaves recently, tying the governor to Rod Blagojevich and the state's economic woes.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) released an internal poll showing her with a huge lead, 62% to 28%, over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney isn't missing a beat and will campaign for Haley "soon," meaning before the runoff vote. Romney is likely trying to curry more favor with the likely future governor after she got a bit too chummy with Sarah Palin in the weeks leading up to the primary.

ID-01: A new poll from Greg Smith and Associates shows state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) starting out with a 12-point lead over freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D), leading the congressman 36% to 24%. Minnick spokesman John Foster derided the poll as a "joke," calling Smith "notorious for being inaccurate."

NY-13: Politico reports: "Lou Wein, a repeated unsuccessful candidate for statewide office over the years, says he'll join the Republican primary fray to take on Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon in the fall." Wein will join former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who's been endorsed by the state Conservative Party, and Michael Allegretti (R), who's been endorsed by the Staten Island GOP.

Daily Rundown: 6/2/10

CA-Sen: Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) is pulling his television ads a week out from the primary, highlighting his financial disadvantage against his rival, businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Campbell is going almost completely dark, relying only on internet ads and robocalls to reach out to Republican voters. Fiorina, who already has a sizable lead in the polls, has been spending millions of her own cash on the race and now will have the California airwaves to herself heading into the primary.

KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 8 points, 49% to 41%. This is a drastic change from their poll released right after the primary, which had Paul up 25.

AL-Gov: Looks like we may be heading towards a recount in the GOP primary, as state Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James are both lawyering up. The Secretary of State has yet to call declare who will take on former state Sen. Bradley Byrne in the runoff, but as of now Bentley leads James by 208 votes.

IA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows frontrunner former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) might not have such an easy time in next week's GOP primary. He only leads businessman Bob Vander Plaats by 15 points, 46-31. Brandstad would be the strongest general election candidate against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D).

ME-Gov: A new Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll shows a wide-open race for both parties in next week's gubernatorial primary. 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans are still undecided. On the Democratic side, state Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be slightly ahead of the pack. On the Republican side, businessman Les Otten holds a 7-point lead over the competition. But with none of the candidates in either race topping 20% and such a high number of undecideds, don't read too much into these numbers.

MI-Gov: A new PPP poll shows businessman Rick Snyder to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. He leads Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) by 16 points and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by 20. The other Republican candidates still poll ahead of Bernero and Dillon, but by much smaller margins.

AR-01: Bill Clinton is backing Chad Causey (D), retiring Rep. Marion Berry's chief of staff, in the June 8 primary runoff. Causey appears to be picking up momentum in his race against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), the more conservative Democrat in the race who finished ahead of Causey in the first round of voting.

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has backed out of a televised debate against runoff opponent Harold Johnson (R), claiming there's been a "collaboration between the Harold Johnson campaign and the news media to use partial truth, innuendo and accusations to unfairly smear me." D'Annunzio has been accused of drug use, criminal activity, and claiming that he is a prophet; and has lost nearly all support he had from the GOP and outside groups.

TN-08: Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott is raising money for Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn in the GOP primary, even as the GOP establishment is actively backing gospel singer Stephen Fincher. Physician Ron Kirkland, who can self-fund his campaign, is also running in the primary. The winner will face state Sen. Roy Herron (D) in the general election.

WA-03: State Sen. Craig Pridemore dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Brian Baird (D) yesterday, citing fundraising problems, and backed former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D). The more moderate Heck now seems to have the nomination all locked up.

Two Polls Show Unexpectedly Close Races

Two surveys, one from Rasmussen and one from Research 2000, show two closer-than-expected senate races in Wisconsin and Kentucky, respectively.

In Wisconsin, it seemed as though Sen. Russ Feingold (D) would get a relatively free ride for re-election after former Gov. Tommy Thompson decided not to run. But the new Rasmussen poll shows Feingold leading wealthy businessman Ron Johnson (R) 46% to 44%.

Johnson has emerged as the likely Republican nominee after two of his competitors dropped out of the race last week when the state GOP endorsed Johnson at their convention. His only remaining primary opponent is little-known businessman Dave Westlake (R).

In Kentucky, a new Research 2000 poll shows Attorney General Jack Conway (D) within striking distance of Rand Paul. The polls finds Paul leading Conway 44% to 41%.

This result stands in stark contrast with a Rasmussen poll from last week which had Paul up by 25.


UPDATE: FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver has some serious bones to pick with the Wisconsin Rasmussen poll. It's worth a look.

In Case You Missed It...

Since primary season started almost four months ago, I thought I'd catch everyone up on some of the highlights of what has happened so far.

Illinois (February 2): Illinois kicked off the primary season with a closely contested Senate Democratic primary, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging out former Inspector General David Hoffman (D), despite ethical charges about Giannoulias's time in office. He will face off against Rep. Mark Kirk (R), a moderate, in the fall. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also squeaked out a primary win and will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the general election.

Texas (March 2): Two-term Gov. Rick Perry (R) handily defeated sitting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in the Republican primary, avoiding a run-off election. Polls have shown him with low double-digit leads over the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

Indiana (May 4): With the unexpected retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the winter, Democrats selected Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as their nominee to replace him. Former Sen. Dan Coats (R), despite a checkered past, emerged as the Republican nominee. Early polls show Coats ahead by a comfortable margin.

North Carolina (May 4): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) are headed to a run-off election on June 22, given that neither of them reached the 40% threshold would have guaranteed them the nomination. Third place finisher Kenneth Lewis endorsed Marshall. The winner will face the unpopular Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November.

Ohio (May 4): In the Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general. No surprises in the governor's race, as sitting Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will take on former Rep. John Kasich (R), which is sure to be one of the most negative and nasty races of the cycle.

West Virginia (May 11): In a clear demonstration of the anti-incumbent mood that will surely carry on through November, sitting Rep. Allan Mollohan (D) was ousted by the much more conservative state Sen. Mike Oliviero (D). Oliverio will face former state Rep. David McKinley (R) in the fall. Expect a lot more sitting congressman to be facing significant challenges in their own party's primaries.

Arkansas (May 18): Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was forced into a run-off (June 8) by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who has been running to Lincoln's left. In response, Lincoln has been touting herself as an Obama-Democrat ever since. Bill Clinton's coming down to stump for her, but Halter has the backing of the SEIU and other unions, and his supporters seem more likely to show up to the polls. The winner will be the underdog against Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.

Kentucky (May 18): This race, more than any other so far, had the national media all up in a tizzy last week. Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated establishment candidate Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) in a landslide. The national media took this as a huge surprise and made it a story about "insurgent beats establishment," but if they looked at the polls and the grassroots efforts on the ground, they would have seen it coming, as Paul ran a great campaign (with the help of the Tea Party). However, since winning the nomination, Paul has made several quick gaffes, including saying that he wouldn't have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act and that President Obama was being "unpatriotic" for criticizing BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He will take on Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--who won a close primary--in the general.

Pennsylvania (May 18): Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party in 2009 for fear of losing the GOP's nomination, lost the Democratic party's nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak (D). There have been allegations that the Obama administration--who was more than grateful for Specter's party switch--had previously offered Sestak the job of Navy Secretary if he backed down from the primary, which would be a federal crime. Sestak has stayed mum on the matter, and is looking forward to November, where he will face conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, the former head of the Club for Growth. In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is heavily favored against Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D).

Hawaii (May 22): When's the last time you heard of a competitive race in the Rainbow State? Well, the stubbornness of the two Democrats running in the special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) House seat made it possible. Neither former Rep. Ed Case (D) nor state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) backed down from the race, splitting the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win the seat. Both Case and Hanabusa are running in the September 18 primary, and it's clear there's still bad blood between them.