Daily Rundown: 7/15/10

AZ-Sen: A new poll from Behavior Research Center finds Sen. John McCain (R) widening his lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). McCain leads Hayworth by a 45-point spread, 64% to 19%, according to the poll. While other public polling shows McCain making gains, this one seems to be a little stronger than the others. Our polling average has McCain up by 26.3 points.

CT-Sen: When Linda McMahon (R) accused former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) of running a sleeper campaign after he suspended his campaign earlier this year, I pretty much laughed it off. But it appears she may have been on to something, as Simmons told the Hartford Courant that he's "thinking about" getting back in the race. "I haven't made any final decisions," said Simmons. "I'm on the ballot. I've never said I'd get off the ballot." Simmons would have a tough fight against self-funding McMahon in the GOP primary, but if he won the primary, he would give the GOP an honest shot at the seat--while still being the underdog against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D). Current rating: Likely Democrat.

NV-Sen: According to Las Vegas-Sun journalist Jon Ralston, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) raised $2.4 million in the second quarter, and still has a whopping $8.9 million in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. A PPP poll from 2 weeks ago found Feingold up by 2. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Meg Whitman (R) leading Jerry Brown (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. Their poll from last month had Brown up by 1, and our average has Whitman up by 0.3 points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Ned Lamont (D) and former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leading their respective primary contests. Lamont leads Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) by 9 points, and Foley leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) by 35 points. In general election match-ups, Lamont and Malloy both lead Foley by double-digits.

GA-Gov: With the Georgia primary quickly approaching, we're getting more and more polling on both parties' races. In the Democratic primary, Mason-Dixon finds former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) by 34 points, 54% to 20% (Barnes needs to clear 50% in order to avoid a runoff). In the GOP primary, it's not a question of if there will be a primary, but rather who will be in it--and pollsters seem to be in disagreement. Mason-Dixon gives state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) an 8-point lead over former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), while Rasmussen finds Handel and former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) tied at 25%, with Oxendine 5 points behind.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 21 points, 57% to 36%. These results are virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

RI-Gov: Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) will reportedly drop his gubernatorial bid today, allowing state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) to take the Democratic nomination without a fight and move right to the general election. Lynch trailed Caprio is polls and in fundraising, and his candidacy just never seemed to fully catch on. What is interesting that Caprio, who is much more moderate than Lynch, is very similar ideologically to former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an independent.

TX-Gov: Rasmussen also has a poll out in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by 9 points, 50% to 41%. This is only a one-point up-tick for Perry since Rasmussen's last poll here last month, but in late June PPP found the race to be tied at 43%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-08: Liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson (D) raised an impressive $325,000 last quarter, but it doesn't come close to matching the massive $803,000 haul he raised last quarter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MS-01: State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) outraised Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the second quarter, $312,000 to $277,000. But Nunnelee still has a long way to go before he can catch up to Childers' cash-on-hand. Childers has $903,000 in the bank, while Nunnelee has just $230,000. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 6/28/10

CO-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) in the Senate GOP primary, citing her as the more electable general election candidate. This could potentially help Norton shift back the momentum of the race to her after her Tea Party-backed opponent, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), has led by double-digits in recent polling.

IL-Sen: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias's (D) respite from media criticism following Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) long line of mistakes and gaffes appears to be over. He has been subpoenaed in former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's trial.

IA-Sen: EMILY's List, a group that raises money for pro-choice female candidates, has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) in her underdog bid against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). Polls have been all over the place in this race--some showing her down by single digits and others showing her down by more than 20 points. But this endorsement will definitely give Conlin a financial boost (even though she has her own money to pour into the race) as she takes on the entrenched Republican incumbent.

KS-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in the Senate GOP primary by 20 points, 53% to 33%. Looks like Sarah Palin needs to come stump for Tiahrt sooner rather than later.

SC-Sen: South Carolina law enforcement officials will investigate if any laws were broken with the way that Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene (D) has been representing his personal finances. The focus will probably be on how collected the $10,400 to pay the filing fee to run for Senate while he couldn't even afford to hire a lawyer for the felony obscenity charges he faces.

FL-Gov: Newt Gingrich is the latest Republican to endorse Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) gubernatorial campaign, as he fends off a challenge from self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush were the last two big-name Republicans to endorse McCollum. Meanwhile, Bud Chiles (I) is refusing to drop out of the race despite complaints from Democrats that his candidacy will siphon off votes from state CFO Alex Sink (D) and allow a Republican victory.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race found Haley up by 21 points, but that can be attributed to the large post-primary-victory bumps that Rasmussen has consistently found for candidates of both parties across the country.

MS-01: Following an endorsement from the National Rifle Association last week, Rep. Travis Childers (D) now has the backing of National Right to Life, an anti-abortion organization. It looks like Childers is winning the early battle to establish conservative bona fides in his race against state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/22/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) leading former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)--who was just caught on video telling people about how they could obtain free money from the government in an infomercial--47% to 36% in the GOP Senate primary. But this poll should still be a red flag for the McCain campaign, as he's still under the all-important 50% watermark. Rasmussen's poll from last month had McCain leading by a similar margin.

IL-Sen: Businessman Mike Niecestro, a disgruntled Republican who was going to pour $1 million into an independent Senate campaign, ended his bid before it even started after failing to come up with enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. He's backing Constitution Party candidate Randy Stufflebeam, who will siphon off votes on Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) right flank.

PA-Sen: A new PPP poll shows Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) tied at 41% in Pennsylvania's Senate contest. The poll finds Sestak has consolidated the Democratic base after his post-primary bounce has wore off.

GA-Gov: A new Survey USA poll took a look at the GOP and Democratic primaries in Georgia's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) leads the pack with 34%, followed by former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) with 18%, while Rep. Nathan Deal (R) trails with 17%. A runoff looks likely between Oxendine and either Handel or Deal. In the Democratic primary, former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) looks poised to clinch the nomination outright. He crushes Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 63% to 13%, with no other candidates reaching double-digits.

IL-Gov: Scott Lee Cohen (D), a pawnshop owner who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor only to withdraw later after getting arrested for pulling a knife on his prostitute girlfriend, will now run for governor as an independent. He'll make no real impact on the race, but he's sure to make a lot of noise and draw a lot of (probably negative) attention down the stretch.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Dudley up by one point, and a recent Survey USA poll found him leading by 7.

TX-Gov: PPP's out with a new poll in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) and former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) tied at 43%. Said pollster Tom Jensen: "Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger." Key finding: independents now support White by a 42-36 margin.

KS-03: State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is out with a new web ad showing him with his wife and a few young children. The only problem? Yoder doesn't have any kids. Whoops.

MS-01: As expected, the National Rifle Association endorsed Rep. Travis Childers (D). Childers's GOP rival, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R), tried to preempt the announcement by saying that the NRA had supported him in the past and that they tend to support incumbents that are supportive of their agenda over challengers.

Daily Rundown: 6/15/10

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) is out with a new ad attacking primary rival former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) for being a lobbyist and for attacking McCain's record with the Navy without ever having served himself. Notice the hot-button issue of immigration was absent.

LA-Sen: Two new polls out in this race. A new poll from Magellan Strategies, a known GOP pollster, shows Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 20 points, 51% to 31%. But a new PPP poll shows Melancon down by just 9 points, 46% to 37%. These are the first polls that have been taken of the race since all of the drama with the Gulf Coast oil spill began. That may be a huge issue between the two candidates heading toward the general election.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) just gave another $20 million to her campaign, bringing her self-fund total to a whopping $90 million. She previously pledged to spend up to $150 million out of pocket to win gubernatorial election. In other news, the New York Times reports that during her time as CEO, Whitman paid a $200,000 settlement to an eBay employee for shoving her.

FL-Gov: An internal poll out for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) shows him tied at 40% with former health care executive Rick Scott (R). The most recent public poll from Quinnipiac showed Scott up by 13.

SC-Gov: Attorney General Henry McMaster (R), who finished third in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary last Tuesday, will endorse state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) for the Republican nomination. Most of the South Carolina GOP has rallied behind Haley now except for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who endorsed Haley's runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr (R) is out with an internal poll showing him within seven points of Rep. Ben Chandler (D). The poll found Chandler leading Barr 45% to 38%, but under the all-important 50% mark.

MS-01: An internal poll for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) shows him leading Rep. Travis Childers (D) 50% to 42%. It shows Nunnelee with a 44/8 favorable rating while Childers sits at 49/30.

NC-08: A new PPP poll shows former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) outperforming businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) against Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in the general election. Kissell bests D'Annunzio 48% to 26%, but only leads Johnson by six points, 41% to 35%.

Swing Districts: A new national NPR poll finds generic Republicans leading generic Democrats 49% to 41% in 70 battleground House districts across the country. Sixty of those seats are held by Democrats while only ten are held by Republicans. Before Republicans start to pop champagne and reclaim the House as a result of this poll, they should remember that Democrats have shown in the PA-12 special election that they can win local races with solid candidates focusing on local issues.

NRCC: Rep. Mike J. Rogers (R), who's in charge of the NRCC's incumbent retention program, urged GOP contributors to donate to just nine Republican incumbents who are at risk of losing their reelection bids. They are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), Charles Djou (HI-01), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Dave Reichert (WA-08).

Pretty solid list. The only two I would have added are Ken Calvert (CA-44)--but he looks like he's in pretty good shape--and Michele Bachmann (MN-06), but she is such a prodigious fundraiser that she doesn't need any outside help from NRCC.

Party-Switching Griffith Rejected by Voters

Rep. Parker Griffith, a Democrat-turned-Republican, was beat soundly by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks in the GOP primary in Alabama's 5th congressional district last night.

While Griffith's party switch was welcomed by Washington Republicans, Alabamans were clearly more skeptical of his motives. And even though Griffith spent more than $50 per vote, the voters' mistrust proved to be too much.

Brooks narrowly avoided a runoff, beating Griffith 51% to 33%. Brooks will be the favorite heading into the general election where he will face off against political consultant Steve Raby (D).

Griffith became the fourth incumbent congressman to lose his seat in a primary, following in the footsteps of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), and fellow party-switcher Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA).

Meanwhile in the 2nd district, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, the GOP establishment favorite, will face off against Tea Party-backed businessman Rick Barber in a July 13 runoff. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in November.

In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) will face Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) in a runoff as well.

And over in Mississippi, "Young Gun" GOP establishment favorite state Sen. Alan Nunnelee narrowly avoided a runoff in the 1st district, defeating former Europa Mayor Henry Ross and former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan (who was backed by Sarah Palin). Nunnelee will take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general, which I currently rate as a Tossup.

June 1 Primaries: What to Watch For

Voters in Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico will head to the polls today to select their party's nominees for a few important House and gubernatorial races. Here are the rundowns on the key races to keep your eye on:

AL-Gov: Both the Democratic and Republican races should be relatively close tonight. On the Democratic side, Rep. Artur Davis--a centrist who voted against health care reform and the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"--is the frontrunner with Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks running to his left. Polls show Sparks gaining on Davis due to his support from unions and improved fundraising, which has caused the Davis campaign to turn negative in the home stretch. If Davis wins the nomination, he could become Alabama's first black governor.

On the Republican side, it's a wide-open race. Former state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne seems to be narrowly leading the pack, followed by former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (famous for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the state courthouse), who has strong ties to the Tea Party movement. Also running are wealthy real estate developer Tim James, state Rep. Robert Bentley, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, and Bill Johnson. With so many candidates in such a wide-open race, a runoff appears likely (you need 50% of the vote to get the nomination). For more info on these races, check out this article.

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) appears to be the favorite in the GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in the fall. Roby's entrance in the race was welcomed by the Washington GOP establishment and NRCC, who dubbed her a member of their "Young Gun" recruiting program. Tea Party favorite businessman Rick Barber is Roby's main competition, but the results of this crowded primary could also result in a runoff.

AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith, who switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party in December of last year in an act of political expediency, faces the voters for the first time as a Republican. He's in a competitive three-way GOP primary with Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (who has run a strong campaign) and businessman Les Phillip. Griffith has been backed by the GOP establishment and the state's congressional delegation and spent a lot of money in the race to keep his job. But Brooks has benefited from the endorsements of the local Republican leadership, Tea Party, and the Griffith's 2008 Republican opponent; and from the general distrust of the party-switching congressman. Griffith needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which is looking increasingly unlikely (if he even manages to be in the top two). Griffith is trying to fend off the national and local anti-incumbent wave and avoid an Arlen Specter-like fate.

AL-07: In the race to replace Davis, attorney Terri Sewell appears to have a slight lead over Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot and former state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. in the Democratic primary. A runoff also appears likely here, but it's not clear which two will qualify. This seat is solidly Democratic, so the winner of the primary will almost certainly win in November.

MS-01: The only race worth watching in Mississippi tonight is the GOP primary to take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the 1st district. Childers won the seat in a 2008 special election that dealt a huge blow to the NRCC, so they are intent on getting the seat back. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (the national GOP favorite and another "Young Gun") appears to be the frontrunner, but faces a strong challenger in former Europa Mayor Henry Ross, who's gained momentum in recent weeks due to his support from the local Tea Party. Also running--but losing steam--is former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan. Yet another runoff seems likely, this time pitting Nunnelee against Ross.

NM-Gov: In the Republican primary, Santa Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez has been leading former state GOP chair Allen Weh by about 10 points in recent polls. Also running but farther behind are businessman Doug Turner, businessman Pete Domenici Jr. (son of former Sen. Pete Domenici), and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. The winner will take on Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the general election. Polls show Martinez to be the strongest general election candidate.

NM-01: It looks like Latino businessman Jon Barela, also a "Young Gun," will get the GOP nod to take on freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in this 43% Latino district centered around Albuquerque.

NM-02: And finally, freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D) appears poised to take on former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), yet another "Young Gun" who is running virtually unopposed in the GOP primary. Pearce left this seat to run an ultimately unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2008, and now wants it back.

Polls close at 8PM eastern in Alabama and Mississippi and 9PM in New Mexico.