Daily Rundown: 8/2/10

FL-Sen: After trailing Jeff Greene (D) in the polls three weeks ahead of the Democratic primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wants some a firm statement of support from President Obama. Said a campaign source: "Meek was told he'd have a prominent role and he's expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid insists that both him and the president are behind him and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is holding a fundraiser for him. Still, it might be wise for President Obama to stay out of this one, because if Greene is the nominee, Gov. Charlie Crist (I) may look like the stronger bet. And if Obama endorsed Meek, it might hurt any chance of Crist caucusing with Senate Democrats if he's elected. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Survey USA also put out a poll in Kentucky this weekend, and they found Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 51% to 43%. Most other recent polls have found a similar result. Current rating: Lean Republican.

MN-Gov: A new Star Tribune poll finds good news for Democrats in the open gubernatorial contest. If former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is the Democratic nominee, he leads state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I) by 10 points, 40-30-13. With state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) at the helm for the Democrats, she leads by nine points, 38-29-13. If former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) wins the nomination, he leads by five points, 36-31-15. What's the reason for these consistent Democratic leads in a Republican year you might ask? The answer is independent Tom Horner, who is siphoning off significant Republican support from Tom Emmer (R). In the Democratic primary, Dayton leads Kelliher and Entenza 40-30-17. Meanwhile, Kelliher--who was endorsed by the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party--has been endorsed by the Star Tribune.

NV-Gov: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 19 points, 50% to 31%. Earlier this month, Mason-Dixon found Sandoval up by 11 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Dan Onorato (D) by 11 points, 50% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Current rating: Likely Republican.

SC-Gov: Rasmussen's also out with a new poll of the South Carolina gubernatorial contest, and find state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 14 points, 49% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-12: Lori Edwards (D) is out with an internal poll showing her benefiting from the Tea Party candidacy of Randy Wilkinson, who's taking votes away from Republican Dennis Ross. The poll finds Edwards leading Ross 35% to 32%, with Wilkinson at an impressive 20%. Keep in mind, though, that this is an internal poll--so take it with a grain of salt. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-11: Survey USA is out with a new poll that finds Rep. Heath Shuler (D) edging businessman Jeff Miller (R) by just one point, 45% to 44%. Our current rating of this race is Likely Democrat, but this poll may change that to something more competitive.

Daily Rundown: 7/30/10

FL-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) narrowly leading Marco Rubio (R) and blowing out both Democratic candidates. When Jeff Green (D) is the Democratic nominee, Crist leads 37-32-17. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the nomination then Crist leads 39-33-13. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) ahead by just one point over challenger Sharron Angle (R), 43% to 42%. Mason-Dixon's poll from two weeks ago had Reid up by seven points, but this new result seems more plausible. Still, that Reid is even leading at all continues to stun me, seeing as he was left for dead just two months ago. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Most other public polls have found a much closer race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Rasmussen also put a poll out in Washington state, and found Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by two points, 49% to 47%. Two weeks ago, they found Rossi (R) to be ahead by three points. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

FL-Gov: That same Quinnipiac poll tested the Florida governor's race and found very close races--regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. If Rick Scott (R) is the GOP nominee, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 29-27-14. If state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) wins the GOP's nod, he leads Sink and Chiles 27-26-14. Also: President Obama will hold a fundraiser for Sink on August 18.

MI-Gov: The second half of the EPIC-MRA poll came out today, this time testing the waters for the gubernatorial GOP nomination. They found moderate former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R) narrowly leading the pack with 26%, followed by state Attorney General Mike Cox (R) with 24% and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with 23%. Different polls show each one of these three in the lead, but the consensus is that this race will be extremely close. The primary is this Tuesday.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid by 10 points, 50% to 40%--down from a 21-point lead from earlier this month. This change is pretty inexplicable, with the only major development being that Sandoval said he wouldn't be worried about his children getting racially profiled in Arizona because they "don't look Hispanic." But that gaffe hardly explains an 11-point drop off over a two-week period. Current rating: Likely Republican.

WI-Gov: With Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) as the GOP nominee, Rasmussen finds that he leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) by seven points, 50% to 43%. If former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) wins the Republican nomination, he trails Barrett by one point.

LA-02: The DCCC has announced that it will officially support state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) in the Democratic primary to take on endangered freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R). The DCCC is placing Richmond, who came in third place in the 2008 Democratic primary, in its "Red to Blue" program--giving him a fundraising and infrastructure boost going into the August 28 primary. He still faces state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), businessman Gary Johnson (D), and Eugene Green (D)--a top aid to former Rep. Bill Jefferson (D), whose scandals allowed Cao to steal this dark blue seat in 2008.

NH-01: That UNH/Granite State poll that came out yesterday also tested both of the state's House contests. In the 1st district, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) leads former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) 44% to 39%, bests former RNC committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) 45% to 36%, and beats businessman Rick Ashooh (R) 43% to 35%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-02: In the open seated second district, things look a bit bleaker for the Democrats. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) leads Katrina Swett (D) 47% to 30% and tops Ann McLane Kuster (D) 47% to 29%. Conservative talk show host and 2008 GOP nominee Jennifer Horn (R) leads Swett 35% to 31% and edges Kuster 34% to 32%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OK-05: State Rep. Mike Thompson (R), who finished third in Tuesday's primary, is endorsing Christian youth camp director James Lankford (R) in the August 24 GOP runoff. In doing so, he's passing over former state Rep. Kevin Calvey (R), who surprisingly finished behind Lankford in the Republican primary despite support from groups like the Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, and Concerned Women for America.

Daily Rundown: 7/21/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who suspended his campaign after losing the state GOP endorsement to Linda McMahon (R) in May, is jumping back into the Republican Senate primary with less than a month to go until voters go to the polls. He is starting to air ads again, urging voters to "look at the issues." It's not clear how well McMahon consolidated GOP support when she only had to face economist and Tea Party favorite Peter Schiff (R) in the primary. Since McMahon stopped short of imploding during that time, I'd give her the advantage in this race--but I'd still like to see some polling.

KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 49% to 41%--virtually unchanged from their June poll. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) announced this morning that she will not run in this November's special election against Gov. Joe Manchin (D). She cited concerns and risks about running for her House seat and the Senate seat simultaneously. Now the West Virginia GOP seems to be without a credible candidate. The name being mentioned the most in mining company owner John Raese (R)--who ran for Senate in 1984 and 2006 and has the ability to self-fund his candidacy. With this development, we are moving the race into the Likely Democrat category.

Meanwhile, it looks like Manchin won't have the Democratic primary field to himself: 95-year-old former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) announced his bid earlier today. Hechler, who represents the more progressive wing of the state Democratic party, will be running to Manchin's left.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll shows state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading both Republicans--state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Rick Scott (R)--and Bud Chiles (I) for the first time. When paired up against McCollum and Chiles, she leads 37-23-14. Against Scott and Chiles, she leads 36-30-13. A key finding from the poll: "Scott and McCollum both have very poor favorability numbers. Their primary battle has completely turned off Democrats and Independents, and Republicans aren't seeing them very positively either." The question is: does this negativity give Sink enough room to eke out an unlikely win?

GA-Gov: Like I said earlier today, a 2012 proxy fight seems to being brewing in the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff, with Sarah Palin supporting former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Newt Gingrich backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R). Now, it looks like another 2012 doesn't want to be left out of the fun: Mitt Romney endorsed Handel today. Meanwhile, Georgia Right to Life is backing Deal, on account of Handel's support for abortion in cases of rape and incest.

MN-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three Democrats with small leads over state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I). Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads 40-36-10, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) leads 40-35-11, and former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) leads 37-36-12.

NV-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) with a big lead over Rory Reid (D), 52% to 38%. This result is pretty much in line with most other polls we've seen of this race. Current rating: Likely Republican.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their last poll of the race, from June, showed Kasich with a 7-point lead. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NY-01: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) endorsed Chris Cox (R), the son of the state GOP party chair and the grandson of Richard Nixon. Cox is running against self-funding businessman Randy Altschuler (R) and former SEC attorney George Demos (R) in the Republican primary.

VA-05: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Tom Perriello (D) trailing state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) by a huge 23-point margin, 58% to 35%. Swing State Project, while being a partisan website, does point out some flaws with the polling sample that may have led to increased support for Hurt. The only other poll of this race was a PPP survey from February, which showed a tie race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 7/15/10

AZ-Sen: A new poll from Behavior Research Center finds Sen. John McCain (R) widening his lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). McCain leads Hayworth by a 45-point spread, 64% to 19%, according to the poll. While other public polling shows McCain making gains, this one seems to be a little stronger than the others. Our polling average has McCain up by 26.3 points.

CT-Sen: When Linda McMahon (R) accused former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) of running a sleeper campaign after he suspended his campaign earlier this year, I pretty much laughed it off. But it appears she may have been on to something, as Simmons told the Hartford Courant that he's "thinking about" getting back in the race. "I haven't made any final decisions," said Simmons. "I'm on the ballot. I've never said I'd get off the ballot." Simmons would have a tough fight against self-funding McMahon in the GOP primary, but if he won the primary, he would give the GOP an honest shot at the seat--while still being the underdog against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D). Current rating: Likely Democrat.

NV-Sen: According to Las Vegas-Sun journalist Jon Ralston, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) raised $2.4 million in the second quarter, and still has a whopping $8.9 million in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. A PPP poll from 2 weeks ago found Feingold up by 2. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Meg Whitman (R) leading Jerry Brown (D) by one point, 47% to 46%. Their poll from last month had Brown up by 1, and our average has Whitman up by 0.3 points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Ned Lamont (D) and former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leading their respective primary contests. Lamont leads Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) by 9 points, and Foley leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) by 35 points. In general election match-ups, Lamont and Malloy both lead Foley by double-digits.

GA-Gov: With the Georgia primary quickly approaching, we're getting more and more polling on both parties' races. In the Democratic primary, Mason-Dixon finds former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) by 34 points, 54% to 20% (Barnes needs to clear 50% in order to avoid a runoff). In the GOP primary, it's not a question of if there will be a primary, but rather who will be in it--and pollsters seem to be in disagreement. Mason-Dixon gives state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) an 8-point lead over former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), while Rasmussen finds Handel and former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) tied at 25%, with Oxendine 5 points behind.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 21 points, 57% to 36%. These results are virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

RI-Gov: Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) will reportedly drop his gubernatorial bid today, allowing state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) to take the Democratic nomination without a fight and move right to the general election. Lynch trailed Caprio is polls and in fundraising, and his candidacy just never seemed to fully catch on. What is interesting that Caprio, who is much more moderate than Lynch, is very similar ideologically to former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an independent.

TX-Gov: Rasmussen also has a poll out in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by 9 points, 50% to 41%. This is only a one-point up-tick for Perry since Rasmussen's last poll here last month, but in late June PPP found the race to be tied at 43%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-08: Liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson (D) raised an impressive $325,000 last quarter, but it doesn't come close to matching the massive $803,000 haul he raised last quarter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MS-01: State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) outraised Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the second quarter, $312,000 to $277,000. But Nunnelee still has a long way to go before he can catch up to Childers' cash-on-hand. Childers has $903,000 in the bank, while Nunnelee has just $230,000. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).

NV-Gov: Reid Will Face Sandoval

No surprises in the Nevada gubernatorial primaries. Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D) and former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) cruised to victory in their respective primaries.

Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), who has long been plagued by scandal and controversy, becomes the latest incumbent to get ousted in a primary. But this defeat is not due to the national mood, but more to Gibbons' checkered past.

Early polls have shown Sandoval to be the strong favorite over Reid in the general election.

June 8 Primaries: What to Watch For

Tomorrow night, the Boston Celtics will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers coming off of an important Game 2 victory in L.A. , where the Lakers will try to shut down the virtually unstoppable Ray Allen.

And, oh yeah, voters in eleven states will go to the polls to select their party's nominees. This is sure to be the biggest primary night so far, so here's the rundown on what to keep your eye on in the highest profile races of the night:

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) will face off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff election in will be one of the most watched races of the night. Lincoln edged out Halter 45% to 43% in the first round of voting, but the word on the ground is that Halter's supporters are more likely to show up to the polls in what is expected to be a very low turnout event. Bill Clinton came to his home state to stump for Lincoln, who has tried to paint herself as more liberal since the first round of voting. Unions have spent tens of millions of dollars on Lincoln attack ads on behalf of Halter, who is more liberal than Lincoln. I'm giving the edge to Halter in this one.

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, is in a runoff against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), who is more conservative. Causey has even claimed that Woolridge might defect to the GOP if elected. Woolridge led Causey in the first round of voting 38% to 27%, but Causey appears to have all the momentum in the race and can boast endorsements from Bill Clinton and two of his former rivals. With low turnout and a lack of public polling data, this race is completely up in the air.

AR-02: Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) will face state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in a runoff. Elliott, who is trying to become the state's first black congresswoman, led Wills 40% t0 28% in the first round. The more moderate Wills, feeling the need to make up that ground, attacked Elliott as "too liberal" for the district. Many of Elliott's supporters thought that "too liberal" was code for "too black" in a state with significant racial tensions.

CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) looks ready to claim the GOP nomination after a hard-fought battle with former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R). Campbell ran ahead of Fiorina in early polling, but fizzled as he ran out of money towards the end. Campbell's closing argument is that he has a better shot of beating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, but it hasn't seemed to resonate with GOP voters. Fiorina has consistently led Campbell by 15 points or more in each poll released in the last two weeks. DeVore, the Tea Party favorite in the race, failed to catch on and has remained quietly in third place.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), after faltering a bit early last month, is poised to win the GOP nomination over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R). This race was absurdly expensive and negative, but the last six polls have shown Whitman up by more than 20 points, meaning she won the ad and message war. Whitman, assuming she wins, will take on Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election, who has built up a sizable campaign warchest of his own.

CA-11: Three Republicans are jockeying to take on vulnerable sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in the general election. Attorney David Harmer, who is known for his better-than-expected performance in the CA-10 special election last year, looks like the establishment choice and can boast an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Also running are self-funding vineyard owner Brad Goehring--famous for joking about "hunting liberals"--and Elizabeth Emken, a former VP of "Autism Speaks" who was endorsed by Rick Santorum (of all people).

IA-Gov: Former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R), the establishment favorite, has a large lead over his two rivals, conservative favorite Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts, according to recent polling. Vander Plaats, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and evangelical leader James Dobson, has to hope for an anti-establishment furor and a surge of conservative and Tea Party activists at the polls to make this race close. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have weighed in on behalf of Branstad, a tactically safe move for the two likely 2012 presidential contenders in this important first-in-the-nation caucus state.

IA-03: In the competitive 3rd district, Jim Gibbons, a financial analyst and former Iowa State wrestling coach, looks to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Leonard Boswell (D). Gibbons is the NRCC favorite in the race and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. His biggest competition for the nomination comes state Sen. Brad Zaun. Gibbons also has to get past Tea Party favorite Dave Funk and four other Republicans. The crowded field may prevent anyone from getting 35%, which is needed to clinch the nomination. If no one reaches that number, the nominee will be decided by party insiders at a special convention soon after.

ME-Gov: This race has been ignored by pretty much everyone. The Democratic and Republican primaries for this race are crowded with over a dozen no-name candidates who all failed to even reach 20% in a recent poll. And 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans were undecided as of a week before the primary. State Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be the slight frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and business Les Otten appears to have the edge for the GOP nod, but the race is so unsettled that anything could happen.

NV-Sen: This is another one of the marquee races of the night, which is to be expected given that the winner of the GOP will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former state GOP chair and casino executive Sue Lowden was the early favorite in the race, but made a series of gaffes including her idea of bartering chickens for medical care and her (alleged) use of an illegally donated RV on the campaign trail. This created an opening for ultra-conservative former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is backed by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth. Angle has recently taken the lead in the polls, and has come under fire from Lowden. Businessman Danny Tarkanian, the most electable Republican who has quietly risen in the polls to tie Lowden, is hoping to be the beneficiary of all the mudslinging between Lowden and Angle and sneak a win tomorrow night.

NV-Gov: Former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) will almost definitely unseat scandal plagued Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in tomorrow's primary. Sandoval, who is obviously a much stronger general election candidate than Gibbons, will face Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (Harry's son) in the fall. On a side note, if Sandoval is nominated, it will mean that two Latino candidates have been nominated in southwestern states (Susana Martinez is the GOP nominee in New Mexico). Perhaps this is a sign that the GOP is starting the realize the importance of the Latino vote in that region?

NJ-03: Since Chris Christie unseated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in 2009, New Jersey Republicans have been bullish about their prospects to unseat freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in 2010. The NRCC's favored candidate is former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), who has run a lackluster campaign so far. Runyan, who is pro-choice, is getting a challenge to his right from Justin Murphy (R), a conservative activist who ran in the GOP primary in 2008. Despite Runyan's slow start, he should win the nomination with some ease. But if Murphy riles up enough conservative support, he could score an upset which would all but ruin the GOP's chances of taking back the seat.

SC-Gov: What a weird race its been. State Rep. Nikki Haley became the frontrunner about a month ago, and earned the endorsements of Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and the Mark Sanford political machine. Then she was accused of having an extra-marital affair by two separate men, neither of which was ever proven. Then, she was called a "raghead" by a fellow Republican because of her Indian descent. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is currently in fourth place in the polls, just touted the results of a polygraph test which "proved" he didn't start any of the affairs rumors, and asked Haley to take a test herself on the validity of the claims. Yet despite all of the ridiculous attacks lobbed against her and the three-ring circus of a primary she's gone through, Haley still leads the pack by a significant margin. But with four serious candidates in the race, it looks like Haley may fall short of 50% and be forced into a runoff with either Rep. Gresham Barrett or Attorney General Henry McMaster.

In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) appears to have a slight advantage over state school Superintendent Jim Rex (D). State Sen. Robert Ford, who is black, is also running and has been in the double digits in some polls, meaning a runoff is possible.

SD-AL: Three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to take on the vulnerable Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) is probably the favorite given his superior name recognition, but has so far has been a mediocre candidate with lackluster fundraising. He'll face state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem, who have both gone on the air ahead of tomorrow's primary and seem to have legitimate shots at winning.

VA-02: Auto executive Scott Rigell (R) is the NRCC favorite in this race. He's a member of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, has a ton of money to self-fund his candidacy, and has been endorsed by Gov. Bob McConnell, Minority Leader John Boehner, and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. But that doesn't mean he's going to win. His two top rivals, Iraq War veteran Bert Mizusawa and Tea Party favorite businessman Ben Loyola, have been aggressive fundraisers and have attacked Rigell for his $1,000 campaign donation to Barack Obama in 2008. Still, Rigell is the heavy favorite to win this one, but probably by a smaller margin than you might think. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in the general election.

VA-05: The NRCC likes state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in this primary, but he certainly is not well-liked by the conservative wing of the party. With his vote for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) tax-increasing 2004 state budget (h/t Swing State Project), he made a lot of enemies in the party. But the conservative wing failed to settle on one candidate, and their vote share will probably be divided between Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, teacher Feda Morton, real estate developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, and veteran Michael McPadden--allowing Hurt to win the nomination.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who ran for the seat in 2008, is facing off against Fairfax Country Supervisor Pat Herrity (R) for the GOP nomination to take on freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in this suburban D.C. district. Fimian has outraised Herrity, but GOP voters may go for the fresh face this time and pick Herrity to face Connolly, who has a large target on his back.

NV-Gov: Sandoval Poised to Win

A new poll from Mason-Dixon finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) all-but-certain to unseat sitting Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in Tuesday's Republican primary.

Sandoval leads Gibbons 47% to 33%, with North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R) only picking up 6%. This poll actually shows a smaller lead for Sandoval compared with other recent surveys.

Gibbons has been embattled with a series of corruption scandals and extrimaritial accusations for the past year, and fares especially poorly among GOP women voters.

The winner will face Rory Reid (D), Harry's son, in the general election. Sandoval is considered to be the much stronger general election candidate, as he has much less baggage than Gibbons.

Daily Rundown: 6/3/10

CA-Sen: Well, that was quick. Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) will go back up on the air Friday, running a commercial touting that he will be the GOP's best shot at taking down Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). He cites a recent LA Times poll showing him up 7 points over Boxer, while Carly Fiorina loses by 6 points. Not a bad closing sell, but it may not be enough to overcome Fiorina's recent surge in the polls and massive financial advantage.

CO-Sen: It looks like the Obama administration tried to meddle in the Colorado Democratic Senate primary too. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs released a statement this morning admitting that deputy chief of staff Jim Messina called former state House Speak Andrew Romanoff to see if he was still interested in a job he applied for during the presidential transition (at USAID) to avoid a primary with Sen. Michael Bennet (D), who has the backing of the administration. Romanoff released a statement saying that no job was formally offered, but claimed that they inquired about his interest in two more administration jobs.

Now, this may all be inside baseball and may have no impact on voters, but it is still very embarrassing for the Obama administration. This follows a similar ploy in Pennsylvania to get Rep. Joe Sestak (D) to drop his primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (D), in which the administration used Bill Clinton as a go-between for an offer of an unpaid, informal advisory position. Maybe this is a sign that the president should stop meddling in its party's primaries?

CT-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 23 points, 56% to 33%. This is a huge change from their previous poll that had Blumenthal up 3, which was taken in the midst of his misstatements on his service.

NV-Sen: A new Suffolk poll shows former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle taking the lead in the GOP primary to take on Sen. Harry Reid (D), confirming her late surge. Angle takes 33%, compared with 26% for real estate developer Danny Tarkanian and 25% for casino executive and former state GOP chair Sue Lowden, whose campaign has been dogged by a series of mini-scandals in recent weeks. Angle is considered to be the weakest general election candidate against Reid.

FL-Gov: Bud Chiles, the son of former Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, has announced that he will run for governor as an independent, a la Charlie Crist. This comes as bad news to Democrats, as Chiles will probably siphon votes away from state CFO Alex Sink (D), who already was facing an uphill battle against likely GOP nominee Attorney General Bill McCollum.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Terry Branstad's (R) prospects still look pretty good in the general election against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D). A PPP poll has him up 15 points over Culver, 52% to 37%. But Branstad still has to get through the Republican primary, which has become more competitive that expected. Evangelical leader James Dobson just threw his support behind Branstad's chief rival, businessman and activist Bob Vander Plaats (R). GOP voters will choose their nominee on Tuesday.

MI-Gov: A lot of polls today. This one, from EPIC-MRA, shows Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) leading the pack in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Hoekstra takes 30%, compared with 18% for Attorney General Mix Cox, 17% for businessman Rick Snyder (who is thought to be the strongest general election candidate), and 16% for Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. On the Democratic side it still looks pretty close, with state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) leading Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) 29% to 23%.

NV-Gov: That same Suffolk poll also tested the GOP gubernatorial primary, between former federal judge Brian Sandoval, incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons, and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montadon. The poll finds Sandoval with a 22-point lead over Gibbons, 47% to 25%. Montadon comes away with 10%. The primary is on Tuesday.

SC-Gov: Oy vey. Another man has come forward and claimed that he had an "inappropriate sexual encounter" with gubernatorial hopeful state Rep. Nikki Haley (R). Instead of a blogger this time, it's a campaign aide to one of Haley's rivals, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R). Haley has once again denied the allegations and accused Bauer of being behind this 11th hour attack. Whether these claims actually have merit or are just despicable campaign tactics, the story might start to stick with South Carolina GOP voters. We'll see if it affects their votes come Tuesday--but somehow I think it won't.

HI-01: Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who is running for governor, is the latest Hawaii Democrat to endorse state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) in the Democratic primary for his old seat. Since former Rep. Ed Case (D) decided not to make a run for the nomination, Hanabusa has turned into the presumptive nominee to take on Rep. Charles Djou (R) in November.