IN-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows former Sen. Dan Coats (R) comfortably ahead of Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), 47% to 33%. This is similar to a poll released by them about a month ago, which had Coats up by 15 points. Meanwhile, Indiana Democrats are trying to tie Coats to the gulf coast oil leak, releasing a web video asking: "What do BP & Halliburton have in common? They both share responsibility for the worst environmental disaster in US history ... and they are both clients of Dan Coats' lobbying firm. ... In the Senate, he'd answer to them ... not you."
PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) retaking the lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D), 45% to 38%. A Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago showed Sestak up four points, which the pollster attributed to a post-primary bump.
NY-Gov: Former Rep. Rick Lazio won the endorsement of the state Republican Party this week to take on heavy favorite Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) in the general election. State GOP chairman Ed Cox's pick for the nomination was Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, who he got to switch parties to run for governor as a Republican. Lazio's nomination was a huge embarrassment to Cox, who's leadership is now coming under fire. There has even been talk of replacing him as the chairmen after he failed to find a good candidate to put up against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), oversaw two crushing special election defeats, and failed to avoid House GOP primary fights.
SC-Gov: Gubernatorial candidate state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) has said that she would resign as governor if the allegations of her marital infidelity turn out to be true. Meanwhile, she's getting some last-minute support from Sarah Palin who recorded a robo-call on her behalf. And Haley, who is Indian-American, also become the target of some racial slurs from state Sen. Jake Knotts, who supports Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's campaign. Said Knotts: "We already got one raghead in the White House, we don’t need a raghead in the governor’s mansion." Yikes.
ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador, who defeated NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward in the May 25 primary, needs some help. His campaign is basically broke and has lost much of its staff, and his still not won over the full-fledged support of the NRCC. Mr. Labrador's going to Washington to try to mend some fences with (and get some money from) the NRCC, but don't expect him to be added to their "Young Guns" recruitment program.
NC-08: Former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) is attacking his runoff rival, businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R), with a new radio ad accusing his opponent of living a "life of drugs, crime and time served in prison." It later adds, "The troubles of the country will only be made worse by a man with such a troubled past." With all of these accusations appearing to be true, I'd peg Johnson as the heavy favorite to win the June 22 runoff.
OH-18: Agriculture Commissioner Fred Dailey conceded the GOP nomination to state Sen. Bob Gibbs today. Dailey ran against Rep. Zack Space (D) in 2008, and lost to Gibbs in last month's primary by 156 votes--triggering an automatic recount. Space is widely considered to be vulnerable this cycle, and has been placed on the DCCC's Frontline defense program. I currently rate the race as: Lean Democrat.
Showing posts with label IN-Sen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IN-Sen. Show all posts
Friday, June 4, 2010
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
In Case You Missed It...
Since primary season started almost four months ago, I thought I'd catch everyone up on some of the highlights of what has happened so far.
Illinois (February 2): Illinois kicked off the primary season with a closely contested Senate Democratic primary, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging out former Inspector General David Hoffman (D), despite ethical charges about Giannoulias's time in office. He will face off against Rep. Mark Kirk (R), a moderate, in the fall. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also squeaked out a primary win and will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the general election.
Texas (March 2): Two-term Gov. Rick Perry (R) handily defeated sitting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in the Republican primary, avoiding a run-off election. Polls have shown him with low double-digit leads over the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).
Indiana (May 4): With the unexpected retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the winter, Democrats selected Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as their nominee to replace him. Former Sen. Dan Coats (R), despite a checkered past, emerged as the Republican nominee. Early polls show Coats ahead by a comfortable margin.
North Carolina (May 4): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) are headed to a run-off election on June 22, given that neither of them reached the 40% threshold would have guaranteed them the nomination. Third place finisher Kenneth Lewis endorsed Marshall. The winner will face the unpopular Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November.
Ohio (May 4): In the Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general. No surprises in the governor's race, as sitting Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will take on former Rep. John Kasich (R), which is sure to be one of the most negative and nasty races of the cycle.
West Virginia (May 11): In a clear demonstration of the anti-incumbent mood that will surely carry on through November, sitting Rep. Allan Mollohan (D) was ousted by the much more conservative state Sen. Mike Oliviero (D). Oliverio will face former state Rep. David McKinley (R) in the fall. Expect a lot more sitting congressman to be facing significant challenges in their own party's primaries.
Arkansas (May 18): Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was forced into a run-off (June 8) by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who has been running to Lincoln's left. In response, Lincoln has been touting herself as an Obama-Democrat ever since. Bill Clinton's coming down to stump for her, but Halter has the backing of the SEIU and other unions, and his supporters seem more likely to show up to the polls. The winner will be the underdog against Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.
Kentucky (May 18): This race, more than any other so far, had the national media all up in a tizzy last week. Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated establishment candidate Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) in a landslide. The national media took this as a huge surprise and made it a story about "insurgent beats establishment," but if they looked at the polls and the grassroots efforts on the ground, they would have seen it coming, as Paul ran a great campaign (with the help of the Tea Party). However, since winning the nomination, Paul has made several quick gaffes, including saying that he wouldn't have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act and that President Obama was being "unpatriotic" for criticizing BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He will take on Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--who won a close primary--in the general.
Pennsylvania (May 18): Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party in 2009 for fear of losing the GOP's nomination, lost the Democratic party's nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak (D). There have been allegations that the Obama administration--who was more than grateful for Specter's party switch--had previously offered Sestak the job of Navy Secretary if he backed down from the primary, which would be a federal crime. Sestak has stayed mum on the matter, and is looking forward to November, where he will face conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, the former head of the Club for Growth. In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is heavily favored against Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D).
Hawaii (May 22): When's the last time you heard of a competitive race in the Rainbow State? Well, the stubbornness of the two Democrats running in the special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) House seat made it possible. Neither former Rep. Ed Case (D) nor state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) backed down from the race, splitting the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win the seat. Both Case and Hanabusa are running in the September 18 primary, and it's clear there's still bad blood between them.
Illinois (February 2): Illinois kicked off the primary season with a closely contested Senate Democratic primary, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging out former Inspector General David Hoffman (D), despite ethical charges about Giannoulias's time in office. He will face off against Rep. Mark Kirk (R), a moderate, in the fall. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also squeaked out a primary win and will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the general election.
Texas (March 2): Two-term Gov. Rick Perry (R) handily defeated sitting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in the Republican primary, avoiding a run-off election. Polls have shown him with low double-digit leads over the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).
Indiana (May 4): With the unexpected retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the winter, Democrats selected Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as their nominee to replace him. Former Sen. Dan Coats (R), despite a checkered past, emerged as the Republican nominee. Early polls show Coats ahead by a comfortable margin.
North Carolina (May 4): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) are headed to a run-off election on June 22, given that neither of them reached the 40% threshold would have guaranteed them the nomination. Third place finisher Kenneth Lewis endorsed Marshall. The winner will face the unpopular Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November.
Ohio (May 4): In the Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general. No surprises in the governor's race, as sitting Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will take on former Rep. John Kasich (R), which is sure to be one of the most negative and nasty races of the cycle.
West Virginia (May 11): In a clear demonstration of the anti-incumbent mood that will surely carry on through November, sitting Rep. Allan Mollohan (D) was ousted by the much more conservative state Sen. Mike Oliviero (D). Oliverio will face former state Rep. David McKinley (R) in the fall. Expect a lot more sitting congressman to be facing significant challenges in their own party's primaries.
Arkansas (May 18): Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was forced into a run-off (June 8) by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who has been running to Lincoln's left. In response, Lincoln has been touting herself as an Obama-Democrat ever since. Bill Clinton's coming down to stump for her, but Halter has the backing of the SEIU and other unions, and his supporters seem more likely to show up to the polls. The winner will be the underdog against Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.
Kentucky (May 18): This race, more than any other so far, had the national media all up in a tizzy last week. Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated establishment candidate Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) in a landslide. The national media took this as a huge surprise and made it a story about "insurgent beats establishment," but if they looked at the polls and the grassroots efforts on the ground, they would have seen it coming, as Paul ran a great campaign (with the help of the Tea Party). However, since winning the nomination, Paul has made several quick gaffes, including saying that he wouldn't have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act and that President Obama was being "unpatriotic" for criticizing BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He will take on Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--who won a close primary--in the general.
Pennsylvania (May 18): Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party in 2009 for fear of losing the GOP's nomination, lost the Democratic party's nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak (D). There have been allegations that the Obama administration--who was more than grateful for Specter's party switch--had previously offered Sestak the job of Navy Secretary if he backed down from the primary, which would be a federal crime. Sestak has stayed mum on the matter, and is looking forward to November, where he will face conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, the former head of the Club for Growth. In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is heavily favored against Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D).
Hawaii (May 22): When's the last time you heard of a competitive race in the Rainbow State? Well, the stubbornness of the two Democrats running in the special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) House seat made it possible. Neither former Rep. Ed Case (D) nor state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) backed down from the race, splitting the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win the seat. Both Case and Hanabusa are running in the September 18 primary, and it's clear there's still bad blood between them.
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