Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL: Bentley Wins, Roby & Sewell Advance

State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) defeated former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) 56% to 44% in last night's GOP gubernatorial runoff.

Byrne was clearly the choice of the Alabama GOP establishment--he was endorsed by Republicans such as Gov. Bob Riley, Sen. Jeff Sessions, Rep. Jo Bonner, Rep. Spencer Bachus, and Rep. Mike D. Rogers--and was seen as a more viable general election candidate against state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D).

But Byrne was tainted by a very negative primary campaign against 3rd-place finisher Tim James (R), and Bentley pledged right off the bat to not run any negative ads.

While Bentley ran a strong, clean campaign, in the end it may have the been the influential Alabama Education Association that pushed him over the top. They did his dirty work for him by spending millions of dollars on ads attacking Byrne, who is on bad terms with the union from his tenure as college chancellor.

In the 2nd district GOP runoff, GOP insiders got at least one candidate they wanted. Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R)--a member of the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program--easily defeated bar owner Rick Barber (R) 60% to 40%.

Barber ran an uneven runoff campaign that relied heavily on support from local tea party groups and a few viral YouTube campaign videos featuring the founding fathers.

Roby will now face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D)--one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus--in the general election. Roby may have a unique problem of needing to get to the right of her Democratic opponent. For example, as Montgomery mayor, Bright took a more hard-line conservative position on illegal immigration than Roby.

All in all, this is a seat that Republicans need to win back (it has a massive R+16 tilt) if they want to win back the House.

In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) defeated Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) 55% to 45% in the Democratic House runoff. Sewell benefited from significant financial support from women's groups like EMILY's List and the National Organization for Women. Because this is such a heavily Democratic district, it is almost certain that Sewell will win the general election and become the state's first black congresswoman.

Daily Rundown: 6/29/10

FL-Sen: The Naples News reports that two donors who gave to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign back when he was a Republican are filing "a class-action lawsuit on behalf of all contributors who are demanding their money back after Crist announced he’d run as an Independent."

LA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 18 points, 53% to 35%. Two weeks ago, PPP found Vitter's lead to be in single digits but Magellan Strategies found Vitter up by 20 points.

WI-Sen: A new poll from PPP finds little-known businessman Ron Johnson (R) coming within two points of Sen. Russ Feingold (D). This confirms the results of an earlier Rasmussen survey which found Feingold up by only one. What's more troubling for Feingold is that 62% of Wisconsin voters don't know enough about Johnson to form an opinion of him. Pollster Tom Jensen notes: "A fresher face may be helpful for Republicans as they try to pull off the upset in this race." If Johnson turns out to be a solid candidate and introduces himself well to voters in the state, he could have a real shot at unseating Feingold.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is on the defensive for an ad he released three months ago, which touts his military service. The ad claims: “Robert Bentley put himself through medical school, served his country and healed troops wounded in Vietnam.” But much like Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), Bentley was a Vietnam-era veteran, not a Vietnam veteran. He served in a hospital on American soil. Meanwhile, Bentley is up with an internal poll showing him with a 19-point lead over former two-year college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R)--who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting--in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Yeah, right.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still has a very comfortable lead over his likely rival, former Rep. Rick Lazio (R). Cuomo leads Lazio 55% to 28%, and even does well among Republicans.

OH-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll has some good news and bad news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The good news is that he leads his rival, former Rep. John Kasich (R), by five points. The bad news is that he doesn't even reach the 45% mark, and 52% of Ohioans don't know enough about Kasich to form an opinion of him, meaning his numbers have room to grow. Meanwhile, a new PPP poll finds Kasich leading Strickland 43% to 41%.

RI-Gov: The Rhode Island Democratic Party endorsed state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) over Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Polls have shown Caprio to be a more formidable general election candidate than Lynch.

ID-01: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in another move that is sure to boost his conservative bona fides in one of the most conservative districts in the country. Minnick has previously been the only Democrat endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Meanwhile, his opponent, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), has been trying to get back on good terms with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), who he bad-mouthed by name in the GOP primary against NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward (R). Labrador still has not been added to the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program. "I understand I cannot win without their help," Labrador said of the NRCC. "I need the entire party to be united behind me against a Democrat who can self-fund in the millions of dollars."

MI-03: The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has an astonishingly good track record for endorsements so far this cycle, is endorsing 29-year old state Rep. Justin Amash (R) in this open seat race. Amash, who is seen as the favorite among Tea Party activists, faces former Kent County Commission Chair Steve Heacock (R) in the GOP primary, who has been endorsed by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R) and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce.

RI-01: The Rhode Island Democratic Party officially endorsed Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) for the seat being vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D). The state party passed over its former chairman, Bill Lynch (D), and state Rep. David Segal (D)--who are also running in the primary.

WV-01: Here's some intra-party drama. Former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) is starting up a PAC against the state senator who ousted Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) in the Democratic primary called "Citizens Who Refuse to Vote for Mike Oliverio." Hechler and Oliverio have some bad blood from when they previously ran against each other in a primary for Secretary of State. Hechler said that he didn't care about hurting a fellow Democrat's chances at winning the general election because “Oliverio, through his record, has shown he is further to the right of most Republicans.”

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/23/10

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain's (R) campaign is up with a new ad attacking former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) for promising people free government grants in an infomercial for National Grants Conferences. Here's an excerpt: "Twenty-four attorneys general condemned this company for promising people free government money, then ripping them off. ... J.D. Hayworth: pork-barrel spender, lobbyist, huckster."

CT-Sen: Martha Hart, the widow of the late wrestler Owen Hart, is suing the WWE and Linda McMahon (R), its former CEO and likely Senate GOP nominee. Hart "alleges that the WWE has used her late husband's name, image and celebrity profile without her consent and in violation of his contract with the company." This is yet another example of McMahon's baggage that could, at the very least, be an embarrassing distraction from her uphill battle against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D).

FL-Sen: Democratic primary rivals Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and billionaire businessman Jeff Greene (D) squared off in a debate for the first time, and it wasn't pretty. Both candidates lobbed harsh, personal attacks at each other rather than talking about the issues. Meek attacked Greene for getting rich off of betting on the collapse of the housing market using credit default swaps, to which Greene responded that Meek probably didn't even know what those were. And Greene accused Meek of securing a consulting job for his mother--former Rep. Carrie Meek (D)--through a developer that now faces criminal charges. The winner in all of this is Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who looks like the only grown-up in this race and continues to siphon off Democratic votes.

OR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading by a smaller-than-expected margin over GOP nominee Jim Huffman (R), 47% to 37%. These results are similar to a Survey USA poll released two weeks ago showing Wyden up by 13 points, 51% to 38%. Election Frontier's rating of this race remains "Safe Democrat", but the race is worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile, Wyden's camp is out with an internal poll showing him up 53-23 over Huffman.

AL-Gov: Former Rep. Sonny Callahan, the campaign manager for Tim James's unsuccessful gubernatorial primary campaign, will endorse state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) in the GOP runoff. This is the closest thing to an endorsement from James himself, who came just short of qualifying for the runoff. This gives Bentley's campaign a much-needed boost, as he is still the underdog against state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R), who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting.

MA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading his two rivals in his reelection bid. Patrick leads with 41%, followed by Charlie Baker (R) with 34%. State Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) trails with 16%. Rasmussen's poll from last month found Patrick up by 14 points.

NM-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez (R) leading Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) 44% to 43%. Even though Magellan is a GOP pollster, it finds a slightly closer race than Rasmussen and Survey USA have found.

OH-Gov: An aide to former Rep. John Kasich's (R) gubernatorial campaign is in big trouble for mocking Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) humble upbringing. Said the aide: “Not until Ted Strickland feared needing their votes did he give urban Ohioans a second thought. Having grown up in a chicken shack on Duck Run, he has all but ignored our cities’ economies and their workers.” This was quite the boneheaded move, as it makes Kasich seem shallow and alienates the same rural and Appalachian voters that he needs to win in November. The aide has since apologized, but added that he didn't mean it as an insult. Strickland's campaign responded: "Only the congressman from Wall Street would be so out of touch as to insult Ted's humble upbringing." Reports show that the Strickland campaign intends to keep this story alive.

PA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) by 10 points, 45% to 35%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Corbett up by 16.

Daily Rundown: 6/21/10

CO-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) leading in their respective primaries. Bennet leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) 53% to 36% in the Democratic primary. Buck, an insurgent who is drawing support from the Tea Party movement, leads establishment favorite former Lt. Gov. Norton (R) 53% to 37% in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Buck leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 9 points. Norton leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 4.

CT-Sen: Investor Peter Schiff (R) collected enough signatures to get on the Republican primary ballot against former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP. Schiff, who was an economic advisor to Rep. Ron Paul's (R) 2008 presidential campaign, didn't get the support of the necessary 15% of delegates at the state GOP convention, which forced him to collect 8,268 signatures to qualify as an official Republican candidate. Schiff has strong libertarian leanings and will be the extreme underdog in the race against McMahon.

FL-Sen: A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) expanding his lead over Marco Rubio (R). While most previous polls have shown Crist with a small single-digit lead (if any at all), this one has him up by 11 points. Crist leads with 42%, while Rubio picks up 31% and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) receives 14% of the vote.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) is hitting back against Sen. Harry Reid's (D) volley of attacks with a new web ad called "Crickets." It charges Reid's attack ads as nothing more than distractions from his own unpopular record as senator and majority leader. It's worth a look.

UT-Sen: A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll released Saturday finds businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) with a narrow lead over attorney Mike Lee (R) in the GOP primary to replace Sen. Bob Bennett (R). Bridgewater, who has been endorsed by Bennett, leads Lee 42% to 33%. But that lead might not mean anything, seeing as 25% of GOP voters are still undecided. Voters go to the polls Tuesday, and most political observers are expecting this race to be very close.

AL-Gov: The results of the recount are in: businessman Tim James (R), who personally paid the $200,000 for the recount, actually lost by more than 200 votes to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), instead of the 167 vote deficit he had on election night. Bentley has now officially earned a spot in the GOP runoff against Bradley Byrne (R).

CO-Gov: That same Survey USA poll also took a look at the state's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, they found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leading Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) 57% to 29%. In general election match-ups, the poll found McInnis leading Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47% to 43%--while Maes led Hickenlooper 45% to 44%.

FL-Gov: That same Chamber of Commerce poll confirms what other recent polling has found: self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R) has jumped into the lead ahead of Attorney General Bill McCollum (R), 35% to 30%. McCollum, who has a reputation of being a lackluster candidate from a couple of previous statewide campaigns, needs to pick up the pace and find a coherent message while Scott floods the airwaves with ads.

SC-Gov: Politico reports that Mitt Romney has donated $42,000 to state Rep. Nikki Haley's (R) gubernatorial campaign. PACs are only allowed to donate $3,500 to a candidate per cycle, but Romney found a way around it: "With one federal PAC and five statewide PACs each maxing out at $3,500 for Haley in both the GOP primary and general elections, Romney has contributed a total of $42,000." Apparently, Romney really wants Haley to take the governor's mansion so he can cash in a few favors with her in the all-important South Carolina primary in 2012--especially since Haley and Palin appear to be very buddy-buddy these days.

NY-23: Here's some rare bad news for Republicans. The state Independence Party just endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R) for their ballot line. Meanwhile, the state Conservative Party has endorsed Doug Hoffman (R), who lost the special election in this district in 2009. Both Doheny and Hoffman are also running for the GOP nomination, so this means that whoever loses the GOP nomination could run on a third-party ballot line--effectively splitting the Republican vote and allowing freshman Rep. Bill Owens (D) a relatively easy path to reelection.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Rick Berg (R) leading Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 51% to 44% in the state's at-large congressional district. Their poll from last month showed Berg with a similar 9-point lead.

PA-03: The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List is targeting freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over her vote for the "pro-abortion" health care reform bill, even though Dahlkemper claims to be pro-life. They have pledged to throw $300,000 into the race to attack Dahlkemper and support her GOP rival, businessman Mike Kelly (R).

SC-01: Sarah Palin joined the House GOP leadership in endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott (R) ahead of his runoff against Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond. This is presumably because they want to have at least one African American in their caucus.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) leads retired teacher and activist Claudia Wright (D) 52% to 33% in the Democratic primary, according the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll mentioned above. This lead seems a bit small, seeing as he's outspending Wright 42-to-1 ahead of Tuesday's primary.

Daily Rundown: 6/14/10

IL-Sen: Conservative businessman Mike Niecestro is reportedly mulling an independent run for the state's open Senate seat. Said Niecestro: "There is no difference between Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D)." He added: "I am a disgusted Republican who has had it with the people the party throws at us." He said that he would be willing to throw in $1 million out of his own pocket to boost his chances. Conventional wisdom is that if Niecestro joins the race, it could be a big boon to Giannoulias as he could siphon votes away on Kirk's right flank.

KY-Sen: The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Rand Paul (R) is not a board-certified ophthalmologist like he claims to be, and that he hasn't been for the past five years. Asked when he would comment on the issue, Paul responded: "Uh, you know, never... What does this have to do with our election?"

SC-Sen: Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D), the Democrat that was defeated by political unknown Alvin Greene (D) in Tuesday's primary, is calling for a formal investigation of the election results. He claims that investigation is not targeted against Greene, but rather against the touch-screen voting machines. White House adviser David Axelrod also weighed in on the situation, saying the result "doesn't appear" legitimate.

AL-Gov: As state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) pivots toward the July 13 runoff against former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R), he has started to shake up his staff and bring in former aides to Mike Huckabee (R). He hired Bryan Sanders, a top aide to Huckabee's 2008 presidential campaign, as his new campaign manager, among others.

FL-Gov: Mitt Romney will endorse and fundraise for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) in his primary battle against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Meanwhile, Scott has challenged McCollum to a series of four televised debates ahead of the August 24 primary.

MI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three of the top GOP contenders (Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Attorney Gen. Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder) leading both Democratic candidates (State House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero). Snyder still appears to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. Meanwhile, Cox picked up the endorsement of the anti-abortion group "Right to Life Michigan."

OH-Gov: Here's some good news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The NRA is endorsing him over former Rep. John Kasich (R) in his reelection bid.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) outperforming her runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), in general election match-ups with state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D). The poll finds Haley leading Sheheen by 21 points, while Barrett only leads by 8 points. Meanwhile, despite early whispers of her being whisked to the national stage, Haley is promising to serve a full term if elected.

AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber (R), the Tea Party favorite in the Alabama 2nd district runoff, is up with an...interesting new ad called "Gather Your Armies". You just have to see it for yourself. Barber will face Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite, in the July 13 runoff.

Daily Rundown: 6/10/10

CO-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan Strategies released a poll showing Weld County District Attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R) leading former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R), the "establishment" candidate, 42% to 32%. While Buck does seem to be closing on Norton very well (last month's PPP poll had Norton only up by 5 points), this lead looks a bit too large given that the dynamics of the race haven't changed much since last month. But it looks like Norton's seeing a similar Buck surge in her internals and is going up with an ad in the right-leaning Colorado Springs area, trying to make inroads with the kind of conservative voters that have supported Buck so far.

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) 55% to 35%. This 20-point margin is a good deal larger than McMahon's internal poll found yesterday, which only had her down by 13.

KY-Sen: Looks like the wounds between Rand Paul (R) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) are starting to heal. Despite their long-running disputes and differences, McConnell announced that he will host a fundraiser for Paul. McConnell, of course, strongly backed Secretary of State Trey Grayson against Paul in the GOP primary last month.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds newly-minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle with a double-digit lead over Sen. Harry Reid (D). According to the poll, Angle leads Reid 50% t0 39%. While I do think Angle has the slight edge in the race at this point, this lead seems a little much. And Rasmussen has been known to find huge post-primary bumps for Republicans (see: Paul, Rand), so take this with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton--fresh off of his successful stumping for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas--will hold a rally for Reid next week.

NC-Sen: Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), who lost the state's Democratic primary to DSCC favorite Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) last month, is backing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) in the state's June 22 runoff. Marshall is another woman who's running against a DSCC favorite in the form of former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), who finished second to Marshall in the first round of voting on May 4. "Like me, she was told to stay out of her state's U.S. Senate race," Brunner wrote in a fundraising e-mail for Marshall. "Like me, she didn't look back."

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D); an unknown, unemployed veteran who did not campaign, raise or spend money or release ads, and paid the $10,000 filing fee out of pocket; shocked South Carolina Democrats by winning the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Jim DeMint (R) over Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D) on Tuesday. This race was not even supposed to be close, but Greene won by an astounding 18-point margin.

Some attribute it to Greene being black in a state with majority black Democratic electorate. Some attribute it to his name being first on the ballot. But that doesn't seem enough to explain this anomaly and now, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), among others, are questioning whether Greene was some sort of "plant" by the GOP. Clyburn even called for an investigation. Meanwhile, after his win, it was released that he was charged with showing a college student obscene photos last fall. Despite pressure to drop out, Greene is vowing to stay in the race. Could this story get any stranger?

AL-Gov: Businessman Tim James (R), who lost a spot in the GOP gubernatorial runoff to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) by just 208 votes, is asking for a statewide recount. And he's willing to dish out the $200,000 to pay for it. Meanwhile, Bentley is pivoting to the runoff against state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R). The winner of that will face state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) in the general election.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in a statistical dead heat with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) a mere two days after the primary. Brown edges Whitman 45% to 44%.

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac also took a look at Connecticut's gubernatorial Democratic primary. They found Ned Lamont (D) with a comfortable 17-point lead over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), 39% to 22%.

IL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Sen. Bill Brady (R) expanding his lead over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady now leads Quinn by 11 points, 47% to 36%. Their previous poll showed Brady up by 7 points. Brady has been hammering Quinn on airwaves recently, tying the governor to Rod Blagojevich and the state's economic woes.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) released an internal poll showing her with a huge lead, 62% to 28%, over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney isn't missing a beat and will campaign for Haley "soon," meaning before the runoff vote. Romney is likely trying to curry more favor with the likely future governor after she got a bit too chummy with Sarah Palin in the weeks leading up to the primary.

ID-01: A new poll from Greg Smith and Associates shows state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) starting out with a 12-point lead over freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D), leading the congressman 36% to 24%. Minnick spokesman John Foster derided the poll as a "joke," calling Smith "notorious for being inaccurate."

NY-13: Politico reports: "Lou Wein, a repeated unsuccessful candidate for statewide office over the years, says he'll join the Republican primary fray to take on Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon in the fall." Wein will join former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who's been endorsed by the state Conservative Party, and Michael Allegretti (R), who's been endorsed by the Staten Island GOP.

Daily Rundown: 6/2/10

CA-Sen: Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) is pulling his television ads a week out from the primary, highlighting his financial disadvantage against his rival, businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Campbell is going almost completely dark, relying only on internet ads and robocalls to reach out to Republican voters. Fiorina, who already has a sizable lead in the polls, has been spending millions of her own cash on the race and now will have the California airwaves to herself heading into the primary.

KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 8 points, 49% to 41%. This is a drastic change from their poll released right after the primary, which had Paul up 25.

AL-Gov: Looks like we may be heading towards a recount in the GOP primary, as state Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James are both lawyering up. The Secretary of State has yet to call declare who will take on former state Sen. Bradley Byrne in the runoff, but as of now Bentley leads James by 208 votes.

IA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows frontrunner former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) might not have such an easy time in next week's GOP primary. He only leads businessman Bob Vander Plaats by 15 points, 46-31. Brandstad would be the strongest general election candidate against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D).

ME-Gov: A new Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll shows a wide-open race for both parties in next week's gubernatorial primary. 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans are still undecided. On the Democratic side, state Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be slightly ahead of the pack. On the Republican side, businessman Les Otten holds a 7-point lead over the competition. But with none of the candidates in either race topping 20% and such a high number of undecideds, don't read too much into these numbers.

MI-Gov: A new PPP poll shows businessman Rick Snyder to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. He leads Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) by 16 points and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by 20. The other Republican candidates still poll ahead of Bernero and Dillon, but by much smaller margins.

AR-01: Bill Clinton is backing Chad Causey (D), retiring Rep. Marion Berry's chief of staff, in the June 8 primary runoff. Causey appears to be picking up momentum in his race against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), the more conservative Democrat in the race who finished ahead of Causey in the first round of voting.

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has backed out of a televised debate against runoff opponent Harold Johnson (R), claiming there's been a "collaboration between the Harold Johnson campaign and the news media to use partial truth, innuendo and accusations to unfairly smear me." D'Annunzio has been accused of drug use, criminal activity, and claiming that he is a prophet; and has lost nearly all support he had from the GOP and outside groups.

TN-08: Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott is raising money for Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn in the GOP primary, even as the GOP establishment is actively backing gospel singer Stephen Fincher. Physician Ron Kirkland, who can self-fund his campaign, is also running in the primary. The winner will face state Sen. Roy Herron (D) in the general election.

WA-03: State Sen. Craig Pridemore dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Brian Baird (D) yesterday, citing fundraising problems, and backed former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D). The more moderate Heck now seems to have the nomination all locked up.

AL-Gov: Sparks Trounces Davis, GOP Race Headed to Runoff

Last night in a huge surprise in the Alabama gubernatorial primary, state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks trounced Rep. Artur Davis in the Democratic primary. Sparks, who ran to Davis's left, beat his rival by a whopping 62% to 38% margin.

What was so surprising wasn't that Sparks beat Davis (he was gaining on Davis in the polls and had the backing of some key groups like the Alabama Education Association), but more the margin of his victory. Polls had Davis up by low double-digits heading into the primary, and instead the spread was 24 points in the opposite direction. I guess Nate Silver was right about the inaccuracy of southern Democratic primary polls.

Some argue that Davis's crushing defeat was due to him positioning himself too far to the right in preparation for the general election instead of catering to Democratic voters just to get on the ballot in November. Some might argue that his strategy of keeping the state's African-American establishment at arms-length while aggressively courting the white vote was what did him in. Some attribute it to Sparks's unequivocal support of legalizing Las Vegas-style gambling in Alabama. It's probably some combination of the three, or maybe that Sparks was just a far superior candidate.

Meanwhile, Sparks's general election opponent is still unknown. On the Republican side, Bradley Byrne secured a spot in the July 13 runoff, as he leads the pack with 27.9%. Robert Bentley (the big surprise of the night) and Tim James are fighting for the other spot in the runoff. Bentley currently leads James by 208 votes, but the results have not been finalized.

"Ten Commandments" Judge Roy Moore finished in a disappointing fourth, more than 8 points behind Byrne, despite his support among the Tea Party activists.

June 1 Primaries: What to Watch For

Voters in Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico will head to the polls today to select their party's nominees for a few important House and gubernatorial races. Here are the rundowns on the key races to keep your eye on:

AL-Gov: Both the Democratic and Republican races should be relatively close tonight. On the Democratic side, Rep. Artur Davis--a centrist who voted against health care reform and the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"--is the frontrunner with Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks running to his left. Polls show Sparks gaining on Davis due to his support from unions and improved fundraising, which has caused the Davis campaign to turn negative in the home stretch. If Davis wins the nomination, he could become Alabama's first black governor.

On the Republican side, it's a wide-open race. Former state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne seems to be narrowly leading the pack, followed by former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (famous for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the state courthouse), who has strong ties to the Tea Party movement. Also running are wealthy real estate developer Tim James, state Rep. Robert Bentley, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, and Bill Johnson. With so many candidates in such a wide-open race, a runoff appears likely (you need 50% of the vote to get the nomination). For more info on these races, check out this article.

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) appears to be the favorite in the GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in the fall. Roby's entrance in the race was welcomed by the Washington GOP establishment and NRCC, who dubbed her a member of their "Young Gun" recruiting program. Tea Party favorite businessman Rick Barber is Roby's main competition, but the results of this crowded primary could also result in a runoff.

AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith, who switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party in December of last year in an act of political expediency, faces the voters for the first time as a Republican. He's in a competitive three-way GOP primary with Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (who has run a strong campaign) and businessman Les Phillip. Griffith has been backed by the GOP establishment and the state's congressional delegation and spent a lot of money in the race to keep his job. But Brooks has benefited from the endorsements of the local Republican leadership, Tea Party, and the Griffith's 2008 Republican opponent; and from the general distrust of the party-switching congressman. Griffith needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which is looking increasingly unlikely (if he even manages to be in the top two). Griffith is trying to fend off the national and local anti-incumbent wave and avoid an Arlen Specter-like fate.

AL-07: In the race to replace Davis, attorney Terri Sewell appears to have a slight lead over Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot and former state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. in the Democratic primary. A runoff also appears likely here, but it's not clear which two will qualify. This seat is solidly Democratic, so the winner of the primary will almost certainly win in November.

MS-01: The only race worth watching in Mississippi tonight is the GOP primary to take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the 1st district. Childers won the seat in a 2008 special election that dealt a huge blow to the NRCC, so they are intent on getting the seat back. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (the national GOP favorite and another "Young Gun") appears to be the frontrunner, but faces a strong challenger in former Europa Mayor Henry Ross, who's gained momentum in recent weeks due to his support from the local Tea Party. Also running--but losing steam--is former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan. Yet another runoff seems likely, this time pitting Nunnelee against Ross.

NM-Gov: In the Republican primary, Santa Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez has been leading former state GOP chair Allen Weh by about 10 points in recent polls. Also running but farther behind are businessman Doug Turner, businessman Pete Domenici Jr. (son of former Sen. Pete Domenici), and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. The winner will take on Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the general election. Polls show Martinez to be the strongest general election candidate.

NM-01: It looks like Latino businessman Jon Barela, also a "Young Gun," will get the GOP nod to take on freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in this 43% Latino district centered around Albuquerque.

NM-02: And finally, freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D) appears poised to take on former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), yet another "Young Gun" who is running virtually unopposed in the GOP primary. Pearce left this seat to run an ultimately unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2008, and now wants it back.

Polls close at 8PM eastern in Alabama and Mississippi and 9PM in New Mexico.