In Tuesday's South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, as expected, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) cruised to a 65-35 victory over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R). Haley is heavily favored to defeat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) in the general election and make history as South Carolina's first non-white-male governor.
Everyone's making a lot of hay over the diversity she brings to the GOP, and how--as a conservative Indian-American woman governor from a deep south state--she will be at the top of everyone's VP short list even as early as 2012.
And speaking of 2012, its clear that this was also a big win for potential 2012 hopefuls Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, who endorsed Haley at critical times in her campaign.
Romney endorsed her back when she was "Nikki who?", as she likes to say, and stuck in single digits. He also donated $42,000 to her campaign from various PACs and campaigned with her in person for her runoff bid.
Palin, meanwhile, joined former South Carolina first lady Jenny Sanford in endorsing Haley at a critical time, immediately launching her into frontrunner status. And Palin stood by her side when Haley was accused of infidelity by swatting down the claims. Haley, for her part, actually gave a shout-out to Palin in her victory speech: "She gave us that boost we needed when we needed it."
So if Haley becomes governor, and both Romney and Palin run in 2012, its hard to say who she would endorse in the all-important South Carolina primary. She might just stay out of it completely, given that she owes both of these national GOP figures a huge favor.
Anyway, back to 2010. In South Carolina's 1st district GOP runoff, state Rep. Tim Scott (R) handily defeated Paul (son of Strom) Thurmond (R) 68% to 32%. Scott--who was endorsed by the entire House GOP leadership, the Club for Growth, Sarah Palin, and more--will likely go on to become the first black member of the GOP House caucus since J.C. Watts of Oklahoma retired in 2002.
In the 3rd district race to succeed now unemployed Gresham Barrett, state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) came back to narrowly defeat businessman Richard Cash (R) in the runoff, to the tune of 51.5% to 48.5%. Duncan also had the support of the Club for Growth and was the favorite despite finishing a surprise second to Cash in the first round of voting, while Cash wasn't even supposed to make the runoff.
And finally, in the 4th district, Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was humiliated last night by a 71-29 loss to Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), a Tea Party favorite. Inglis was a little too moderate and a little too willing to compromise with Democrats for this dark red district during his time in Congress. He is the third House member and the fifth member of Congress to get ousted in a primary this year.
Showing posts with label SC-04. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SC-04. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
Runoff Tuesday: What to Watch For
Voters in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah will head to the polls tomorrow to vote for their second-round choices in key House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests.
In the Carolinas, there are a number of key runoff races because neither candidate reached the (40% in North Carolina and 50% in South Carolina) threshold to clinch the nomination outright. And in Utah, neither candidate in a few select races reached the 60% threshold to clinch the nomination at their party's state nominating convention.
So here's what you should watch for tomorrow in what we (and everybody else) are calling "Runoff Tuesday":
NC-Sen: In the first round of voting, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) bested former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), the preferred candidate of the DSCC, 36% to 27%. Since then, all of the momentum has swung to Marshall, receiving the endorsements of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis (D) and progressive grassroots movements like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America. The only public poll released since the first round of voting was from PPP, which found the candidates tied at 36%. With extremely low turnout expected and the inherent unpredictability of runoffs in general (see: Arkansas), anything could happen here. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Marshall comes away with the nomination.
NC-08: The GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) has turned quite ridiculous since the first round of voting. Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has come under fire for past criminal activity (including time in prison), drug use, declaring himself a prophet, and refusing to pay child support among other things by local media organizations and his rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R). D'Annunzio, who has self-funded the majority of his campaign and finished ahead of Johnson in the first round of voting, backed out of a televised debate and slapped Johnson with a defamation lawsuit since then. Meanwhile, D'Annunzio has lost almost all support among local Tea Party groups and other outside groups and Johnson has garnered the open support of the House GOP leadership. A PPP poll taken of the race last week showed Johnson leading D'Annunzio 49% to 39%, and showed him to be a much stronger general election candidate. If Johnson loses this one, I'll be flabbergasted.
SC-Gov: After the slanderous first round of voting that included multiple charges of infidelity and outward racism, the runoff between state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) seems fairly...dare I say civilized? The only controversy that has arose since the primary has been about Haley's Sikh heritage, but even that was pretty quiet. The South Carolina GOP is fairly split between the two, but it doesn't really matter as Haley (who was one percentage point shy on clinching the GOP nod outright) looks poised to cruise to victory in round two. The real drama in this race will be who gets the credit for the win (aside from Haley): Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or the Republican Governors Association--which endorsed Haley right after round one.
SC-01: State Rep. Tim Scott (R) is trying to become to first African-American in the House GOP caucus since J.C. Watts retired in 2002. He is taking on Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of late legendary South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond. Scott bested Thurmond 32% to 16% in the first round of voting, and appears to have all the momentum moving forward. He has since picked up the endorsements of Sarah Palin, the House GOP leadership, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Thurmond, meanwhile, has been endorsed by several of his former primary rivals, including the big-named Carroll Campbell III (R).
SC-03: Businessman Richard Cash (R) surprised a lot of people by finishing first in the primary with 25%, with Club for Growth-backed state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) taking 23%. Your guess is as mine for who comes out on top here.
SC-04: The race in this district is almost sure to fuel the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the mainstream media is so attached to. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) beat Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 39% to 28% in the primary, mostly fueled by conservative anger over Inglis's vote for TARP. Since then, Inglis's House colleagues have essentially left him for dead. Gowdy is almost certain to seal the deal tomorrow, making Inglis the fifth member of congress to be ousted in a primary.
UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was the first member of congress to be ousted this cycle. Bennett finished third at the state GOP nominating convention, making him ineligible for the primary. Businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) won 57% of the vote at the convention while attorney Mike Lee (R) won 42%. Bridgewater and Lee agree on almost everything and both have support from local tea parties, so the primary campaign narrative has been: "do you want a businessman or lawyer in the Senate?" Bennett, who was believed to have more influence among Utah GOP voters than with the conservative convention delegates, has endorsed Bridgewater. Lee has boasted support from conservative ideologues such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), and Freedom Works PAC chairman Dick Armey. The only poll taken of the race showed Bridgewater with a 9-point lead over Lee, but a quarter of GOP voters are still undecided. This is expected be an old-fashioned horse race of a finish.
UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is taking no chances in reclaiming the Democratic nomination as he tries to stave off a challenge to his left from teacher and progressive activist Claudia Wright (D). Matheson beat Wright by a surprisingly small 55% to 45% margin at the state convention, and has since outspent her 42-to-1 in response. Wright has tapped into Democrats' frustration with Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade as well as his conservative views on immigration and gay marriage. But it's not clear whether Wright can turn that frustration into votes. A poll taken of the race this weekend shows her trailing Matheson 52% to 33%. Utah Republicans are surely rooting for Wright to win the nomination, as she would be a much easier target in the general election.
In the Carolinas, there are a number of key runoff races because neither candidate reached the (40% in North Carolina and 50% in South Carolina) threshold to clinch the nomination outright. And in Utah, neither candidate in a few select races reached the 60% threshold to clinch the nomination at their party's state nominating convention.
So here's what you should watch for tomorrow in what we (and everybody else) are calling "Runoff Tuesday":
NC-Sen: In the first round of voting, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) bested former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), the preferred candidate of the DSCC, 36% to 27%. Since then, all of the momentum has swung to Marshall, receiving the endorsements of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis (D) and progressive grassroots movements like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America. The only public poll released since the first round of voting was from PPP, which found the candidates tied at 36%. With extremely low turnout expected and the inherent unpredictability of runoffs in general (see: Arkansas), anything could happen here. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Marshall comes away with the nomination.
NC-08: The GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) has turned quite ridiculous since the first round of voting. Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has come under fire for past criminal activity (including time in prison), drug use, declaring himself a prophet, and refusing to pay child support among other things by local media organizations and his rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R). D'Annunzio, who has self-funded the majority of his campaign and finished ahead of Johnson in the first round of voting, backed out of a televised debate and slapped Johnson with a defamation lawsuit since then. Meanwhile, D'Annunzio has lost almost all support among local Tea Party groups and other outside groups and Johnson has garnered the open support of the House GOP leadership. A PPP poll taken of the race last week showed Johnson leading D'Annunzio 49% to 39%, and showed him to be a much stronger general election candidate. If Johnson loses this one, I'll be flabbergasted.
SC-Gov: After the slanderous first round of voting that included multiple charges of infidelity and outward racism, the runoff between state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) seems fairly...dare I say civilized? The only controversy that has arose since the primary has been about Haley's Sikh heritage, but even that was pretty quiet. The South Carolina GOP is fairly split between the two, but it doesn't really matter as Haley (who was one percentage point shy on clinching the GOP nod outright) looks poised to cruise to victory in round two. The real drama in this race will be who gets the credit for the win (aside from Haley): Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or the Republican Governors Association--which endorsed Haley right after round one.
SC-01: State Rep. Tim Scott (R) is trying to become to first African-American in the House GOP caucus since J.C. Watts retired in 2002. He is taking on Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of late legendary South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond. Scott bested Thurmond 32% to 16% in the first round of voting, and appears to have all the momentum moving forward. He has since picked up the endorsements of Sarah Palin, the House GOP leadership, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Thurmond, meanwhile, has been endorsed by several of his former primary rivals, including the big-named Carroll Campbell III (R).
SC-03: Businessman Richard Cash (R) surprised a lot of people by finishing first in the primary with 25%, with Club for Growth-backed state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) taking 23%. Your guess is as mine for who comes out on top here.
SC-04: The race in this district is almost sure to fuel the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the mainstream media is so attached to. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) beat Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 39% to 28% in the primary, mostly fueled by conservative anger over Inglis's vote for TARP. Since then, Inglis's House colleagues have essentially left him for dead. Gowdy is almost certain to seal the deal tomorrow, making Inglis the fifth member of congress to be ousted in a primary.
UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was the first member of congress to be ousted this cycle. Bennett finished third at the state GOP nominating convention, making him ineligible for the primary. Businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) won 57% of the vote at the convention while attorney Mike Lee (R) won 42%. Bridgewater and Lee agree on almost everything and both have support from local tea parties, so the primary campaign narrative has been: "do you want a businessman or lawyer in the Senate?" Bennett, who was believed to have more influence among Utah GOP voters than with the conservative convention delegates, has endorsed Bridgewater. Lee has boasted support from conservative ideologues such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), and Freedom Works PAC chairman Dick Armey. The only poll taken of the race showed Bridgewater with a 9-point lead over Lee, but a quarter of GOP voters are still undecided. This is expected be an old-fashioned horse race of a finish.
UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is taking no chances in reclaiming the Democratic nomination as he tries to stave off a challenge to his left from teacher and progressive activist Claudia Wright (D). Matheson beat Wright by a surprisingly small 55% to 45% margin at the state convention, and has since outspent her 42-to-1 in response. Wright has tapped into Democrats' frustration with Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade as well as his conservative views on immigration and gay marriage. But it's not clear whether Wright can turn that frustration into votes. A poll taken of the race this weekend shows her trailing Matheson 52% to 33%. Utah Republicans are surely rooting for Wright to win the nomination, as she would be a much easier target in the general election.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
6/8 Primaries Wrap-Up
Last night was very important in offering us some insight into the mindset of GOP voters across the country, and will have large implications on many general election races. Also, many women did very well last night in both parties, and really have the chance to expand their numbers in congress and statehouses everywhere.
In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) withstood a $10 million barrage of attacks from outside labor groups and narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff.
Conventional wisdom was that Lincoln was a goner. But with the support of Arkansas heavyweight Bill Clinton, a strong electoral base in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts (which happened to be having special House elections that night), and a strong closing message ("I'd rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas"), she swam above the strong national anti-incumbent wave.
Looking forward to the general election, Lincoln will have an even greater challenge as she has to swing back to the right to face Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election. Early polling shows Boozman up by anywhere from 17 to 38 points. Election Frontier currently rates this: Lean Republican.
In California, GOP voters chose two female former CEOs, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, as their nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively. They will take on two veteran Democratic politicians, Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, in the general election. Now we'll get to see who California voters dislike more: CEOs or politicians.
The only thing I could learn about Maine gubernatorial race was that the Republican nominee, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), was backed strongly by the local Tea Party movement. Score another win for them.
In Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) scored a major ideological victory last night in the GOP nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). It looked like Reid's only hope would be if GOP voters nominated Angle, given her extreme conservative views. And last night, he got his wish and now has a chance to win a reelection race that most thought was a lost cause.
Angry Nevada GOP voters showed that they don't care about general election viability, or at least aren't willing to compromise their conservative ideological purity to make the best long-term decision of who to nominate. And with Angle, they'll get what they voted for.
This is sure to be one of the nastiest, most expensive, heavily watched, overanalyzed, overpublicized races in the country. The winner of this race will no doubt be on the front page on the day after Election Day.
In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) all-but clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and should now start to look forward to the general election. Despite the (bizarre) barrage of attacks launched against her on all sides, Haley came out unscathed and will most likely be the next governor of the Palmetto state.
As First Read points out, Nikki's success may play a big role in the 2012 presidential primaries. Evey winner of the third-in-the-nation South Carolina Republican primary since 1980 has gone on to become the nominee.
"And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham's censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right."
For the Republican primaries in House races across the county, establishment-picked candidates fared reasonably well last night.
Establishment picks David Harmer (CA-11), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Scott Rigell (VA-02), and Robert Hurt (VA-05) all survived their contested primaries.
But a few insurgent candidates also pulled off wins last night. For instance, state Sen. Brad Zaun (R) whooped establishment favorite Jim Gibbons in Iowa's 3rd congressional district.
And Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was forced into a runoff against insurgent Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), and will probably lose due to his vote in favor of TARP.
In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) withstood a $10 million barrage of attacks from outside labor groups and narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff.
Conventional wisdom was that Lincoln was a goner. But with the support of Arkansas heavyweight Bill Clinton, a strong electoral base in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts (which happened to be having special House elections that night), and a strong closing message ("I'd rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas"), she swam above the strong national anti-incumbent wave.
Looking forward to the general election, Lincoln will have an even greater challenge as she has to swing back to the right to face Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election. Early polling shows Boozman up by anywhere from 17 to 38 points. Election Frontier currently rates this: Lean Republican.
In California, GOP voters chose two female former CEOs, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, as their nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively. They will take on two veteran Democratic politicians, Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, in the general election. Now we'll get to see who California voters dislike more: CEOs or politicians.
The only thing I could learn about Maine gubernatorial race was that the Republican nominee, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), was backed strongly by the local Tea Party movement. Score another win for them.
In Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) scored a major ideological victory last night in the GOP nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). It looked like Reid's only hope would be if GOP voters nominated Angle, given her extreme conservative views. And last night, he got his wish and now has a chance to win a reelection race that most thought was a lost cause.
Angry Nevada GOP voters showed that they don't care about general election viability, or at least aren't willing to compromise their conservative ideological purity to make the best long-term decision of who to nominate. And with Angle, they'll get what they voted for.
This is sure to be one of the nastiest, most expensive, heavily watched, overanalyzed, overpublicized races in the country. The winner of this race will no doubt be on the front page on the day after Election Day.
In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) all-but clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and should now start to look forward to the general election. Despite the (bizarre) barrage of attacks launched against her on all sides, Haley came out unscathed and will most likely be the next governor of the Palmetto state.
As First Read points out, Nikki's success may play a big role in the 2012 presidential primaries. Evey winner of the third-in-the-nation South Carolina Republican primary since 1980 has gone on to become the nominee.
"And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham's censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right."
For the Republican primaries in House races across the county, establishment-picked candidates fared reasonably well last night.
Establishment picks David Harmer (CA-11), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Scott Rigell (VA-02), and Robert Hurt (VA-05) all survived their contested primaries.
But a few insurgent candidates also pulled off wins last night. For instance, state Sen. Brad Zaun (R) whooped establishment favorite Jim Gibbons in Iowa's 3rd congressional district.
And Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was forced into a runoff against insurgent Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), and will probably lose due to his vote in favor of TARP.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
SC: We're in for a Pair of Runoffs
In the first marquee race of the night, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) was just shy of the votes needed to avoid a runoff in the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary.
Haley snagged 49% of the vote to Rep. Gresham Barrett's 22%. She will be the heavy favorite in the June 22 runoff, the winner of which will face state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D)--who avoided a runoff of his own--in the general election.
In the 4th district, Rep. Bob Inglis's (R) performance was anemic tonight. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), who is running to Inglis's right, beat the congressman 40% to 27% but fell short of the 50%+1 to clinch the nomination outright. Gowdy will be heavily favored to unseat Inglis in the June 22 runoff.
UPDATE: Politico is reporting that the Republican Governors Association is endorsing Haley, and is trying to put pressure on Barrett not to contest the runoff. Good luck with that.
Haley snagged 49% of the vote to Rep. Gresham Barrett's 22%. She will be the heavy favorite in the June 22 runoff, the winner of which will face state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D)--who avoided a runoff of his own--in the general election.
In the 4th district, Rep. Bob Inglis's (R) performance was anemic tonight. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), who is running to Inglis's right, beat the congressman 40% to 27% but fell short of the 50%+1 to clinch the nomination outright. Gowdy will be heavily favored to unseat Inglis in the June 22 runoff.
UPDATE: Politico is reporting that the Republican Governors Association is endorsing Haley, and is trying to put pressure on Barrett not to contest the runoff. Good luck with that.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Daily Rundown: 6/7/10
FL-Sen: A lawyer for former state GOP chairman Jim Greer said this past weekend that Gov. Charlie Crist (I) signed off on a deal that allowed Greer--who's under investigation for criminal fraud among other things during his time as chairman--and his associates "to steer party money into consulting contracts that benefited them personally." Crist has denied all of the accusations, saying he was oblivious to all of Greer's criminal actions as chairman. Not only is this a major campaign problem for him, but also potentially a criminal one should Greer decide to bring Crist down with him.
OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a dead heat for the state's open Senate seat, each picking up 43% of likely voters. This is virtually unchanged from their survey from last month, which had Fisher up by a point.
IA-Gov: A new Des Moines Register poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad way out in front of his rivals for the GOP nomination. Branstad leads conservative underdog Bob Vander Plaats 57% to 29%. These findings are at odds with a few previous polls, which had shown the race tightening up.
SC-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) unscathed by the multiple allegations of extramarital affairs. Haley leads the pack for the GOP nomination with 43%, followed by 23% for Rep. Gresham Barrett, 16% for Attorney General Henry McMaster, and 12% for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer. Haley still has a strong favorable rating at 58-23, and GOP voters don't think the allegations are true by a 54-13 margin. At this point, a runoff seems likely between Haley and either Barrett or McMaster, who was just endorsed by Rudy Giuliani. But I'm not sure how much weight that endorsement has, given that Giuliani's a northeast moderate who finished sixth in the state's 2008 presidential primary.
AL-05: The NRCC appears to be warming up to Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who unseated party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the GOP primary. They have officially anointed him a "Young Gun", which is their top recruitment status.
MN-06: Physician Maureen Reed (D) dropped out of the race to take on conservative firebrand Rep. Michele Bachmann (R), clearing the path for state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) to take the Democratic nomination. Reed offered a whole-hearted endorsement for Clark, citing that a "prolonged primary fight only assists Michele Bachmann" in getting reelected. So far, Clark has proved to be a fantastic fundraiser: she raised $513,000 in the first quarter and has $601,000 in cash-on-hand. That's very important because Bachmann, being the outspoken controversial conservative that she is, is one of the best fundraising incumbents in the country.
PA-06: The NRCC is playing some defense for once by enrolling Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in their "Patriot" program, which is designed to protect vulnerable Republican incumbents. Gerlach survived the 2008 Democratic surge, but he still appears to be vulnerable despite the national GOP advantage this time around. He only won the seat by four points in 2008 and Barack Obama carried the district by 17 points. Gerlach will face Iraq War veteran and physician Manan Trivedi (D) in the general election.
SC-04: PPP also polled the GOP primary in the 4th, where Rep. Bob Inglis (R)--who has a conservative voting record besides his TARP vote--is struggling to survive an attack from his right. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) leads Inglis 37% to 33%, and a runoff seems likely.
OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a dead heat for the state's open Senate seat, each picking up 43% of likely voters. This is virtually unchanged from their survey from last month, which had Fisher up by a point.
IA-Gov: A new Des Moines Register poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad way out in front of his rivals for the GOP nomination. Branstad leads conservative underdog Bob Vander Plaats 57% to 29%. These findings are at odds with a few previous polls, which had shown the race tightening up.
SC-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) unscathed by the multiple allegations of extramarital affairs. Haley leads the pack for the GOP nomination with 43%, followed by 23% for Rep. Gresham Barrett, 16% for Attorney General Henry McMaster, and 12% for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer. Haley still has a strong favorable rating at 58-23, and GOP voters don't think the allegations are true by a 54-13 margin. At this point, a runoff seems likely between Haley and either Barrett or McMaster, who was just endorsed by Rudy Giuliani. But I'm not sure how much weight that endorsement has, given that Giuliani's a northeast moderate who finished sixth in the state's 2008 presidential primary.
AL-05: The NRCC appears to be warming up to Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who unseated party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the GOP primary. They have officially anointed him a "Young Gun", which is their top recruitment status.
MN-06: Physician Maureen Reed (D) dropped out of the race to take on conservative firebrand Rep. Michele Bachmann (R), clearing the path for state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) to take the Democratic nomination. Reed offered a whole-hearted endorsement for Clark, citing that a "prolonged primary fight only assists Michele Bachmann" in getting reelected. So far, Clark has proved to be a fantastic fundraiser: she raised $513,000 in the first quarter and has $601,000 in cash-on-hand. That's very important because Bachmann, being the outspoken controversial conservative that she is, is one of the best fundraising incumbents in the country.
PA-06: The NRCC is playing some defense for once by enrolling Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in their "Patriot" program, which is designed to protect vulnerable Republican incumbents. Gerlach survived the 2008 Democratic surge, but he still appears to be vulnerable despite the national GOP advantage this time around. He only won the seat by four points in 2008 and Barack Obama carried the district by 17 points. Gerlach will face Iraq War veteran and physician Manan Trivedi (D) in the general election.
SC-04: PPP also polled the GOP primary in the 4th, where Rep. Bob Inglis (R)--who has a conservative voting record besides his TARP vote--is struggling to survive an attack from his right. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) leads Inglis 37% to 33%, and a runoff seems likely.
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