Daily Rundown: 8/2/10

FL-Sen: After trailing Jeff Greene (D) in the polls three weeks ahead of the Democratic primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wants some a firm statement of support from President Obama. Said a campaign source: "Meek was told he'd have a prominent role and he's expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid insists that both him and the president are behind him and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is holding a fundraiser for him. Still, it might be wise for President Obama to stay out of this one, because if Greene is the nominee, Gov. Charlie Crist (I) may look like the stronger bet. And if Obama endorsed Meek, it might hurt any chance of Crist caucusing with Senate Democrats if he's elected. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Survey USA also put out a poll in Kentucky this weekend, and they found Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 51% to 43%. Most other recent polls have found a similar result. Current rating: Lean Republican.

MN-Gov: A new Star Tribune poll finds good news for Democrats in the open gubernatorial contest. If former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is the Democratic nominee, he leads state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I) by 10 points, 40-30-13. With state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) at the helm for the Democrats, she leads by nine points, 38-29-13. If former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) wins the nomination, he leads by five points, 36-31-15. What's the reason for these consistent Democratic leads in a Republican year you might ask? The answer is independent Tom Horner, who is siphoning off significant Republican support from Tom Emmer (R). In the Democratic primary, Dayton leads Kelliher and Entenza 40-30-17. Meanwhile, Kelliher--who was endorsed by the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party--has been endorsed by the Star Tribune.

NV-Gov: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 19 points, 50% to 31%. Earlier this month, Mason-Dixon found Sandoval up by 11 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Dan Onorato (D) by 11 points, 50% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Current rating: Likely Republican.

SC-Gov: Rasmussen's also out with a new poll of the South Carolina gubernatorial contest, and find state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 14 points, 49% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-12: Lori Edwards (D) is out with an internal poll showing her benefiting from the Tea Party candidacy of Randy Wilkinson, who's taking votes away from Republican Dennis Ross. The poll finds Edwards leading Ross 35% to 32%, with Wilkinson at an impressive 20%. Keep in mind, though, that this is an internal poll--so take it with a grain of salt. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-11: Survey USA is out with a new poll that finds Rep. Heath Shuler (D) edging businessman Jeff Miller (R) by just one point, 45% to 44%. Our current rating of this race is Likely Democrat, but this poll may change that to something more competitive.

Daily Rundown: 6/16/10

FL-Sen: Politico reports that Florida Democratic leaders are beginning to entertain the possibility of backing Gov. Charlie Crist's independent Senate campaign in the general election (or at least sitting on the sidelines) if billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who apparently has a ton of baggage, wins the Democratic nomination. Crist, who was left for dead when he was a Republican running against Marco Rubio (R) in the GOP primary, has been actively courting Democrats and independents by darting to the left in recent weeks and might end up as the de facto Democratic nominee. What a turn-around.

NC-Sen: Progressive group MoveOn.org has endorsed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) over state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) ahead of the June 22 runoff. Cunningham is the favored candidate of the DSCC, which has donated almost $80,000 to his campaign.

WA-Sen: A new Elway poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) 47% to 40%. Murray also leads Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (R) 46% to 32% and bests businessman Paul Akers (R) 47% to 33%. Meanwhile, Didier made a trip to Washington to meet with RNC and NRSC officials, who were responsible for recruiting Rossi to begin with.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a dead heat in the Colorado gubernatorial contest. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leads Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 46% to 41%. They found Kasich with a similar lead in their poll from last month. Meanwhile, Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) is tied with Hickenlooper at 41%.

IL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Sen. Bill Brady (R) with a slight edge over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady leads Quinn 34% to 30%, with a large number of undecided voters. A Rasmussen poll from last week found Brady with an 11-point lead.

IA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) with a huge 26-point lead over sitting Gov. Chet Culver (D), 57% to 31%.

MI-Gov: A new survey from Magellan Strategies of the Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with a small lead over his rivals. Hoekstra leads with 26%, Rick Snyder takes 20%, Mike Cox takes 16%, and Mike Bouchard trails with 11%.

CT-04: Easton Selectman Tom Herrmann (R) is dropping out of the GOP primary in this district because of falsified names on his petition. That leaves businessmen Rob Merkle (R) and Rick Torres (R) as well as state Sen. Dan Debicella (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP, in the primary to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D) in the general election.

NH-01: Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (R) endorsed former RNC Committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) in the 1st district GOP primary over his predecessor, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R). This endorsement is really just symbolic, but it probably stings Guinta--who was recruited by the NRCC to run against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)--just the same.

NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller (R) is out with an internal poll showing him running only 12 points behind Rep. Heath Shuler (D), 46% to 34%. Shuler's $1,293,000 in cash-on-hand dwarfs Miller's $26,000 as of the end of the first quarter. But Miller's cash-strapped campaign may get a fundraising boost from the conservative organization Freedom Works, who has just endorsed his campaign.

OH-12: EMILY's List announced that they will endorse Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks (D) in her uphill battle to unseat Rep. Pat Tiberi (R). Brooks has already been endorsed by NARAL, another pro-abortion rights organization, and is a member of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" candidate recruitment program. Meanwhile, Tiberi was announced yesterday to be one of only nine Republican incumbents that the NRCC will continue to fundraise for. Might this be a rare opportunity for Democrats to play offense?