Daily Rundown: 8/2/10

FL-Sen: After trailing Jeff Greene (D) in the polls three weeks ahead of the Democratic primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wants some a firm statement of support from President Obama. Said a campaign source: "Meek was told he'd have a prominent role and he's expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid insists that both him and the president are behind him and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is holding a fundraiser for him. Still, it might be wise for President Obama to stay out of this one, because if Greene is the nominee, Gov. Charlie Crist (I) may look like the stronger bet. And if Obama endorsed Meek, it might hurt any chance of Crist caucusing with Senate Democrats if he's elected. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Survey USA also put out a poll in Kentucky this weekend, and they found Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 51% to 43%. Most other recent polls have found a similar result. Current rating: Lean Republican.

MN-Gov: A new Star Tribune poll finds good news for Democrats in the open gubernatorial contest. If former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is the Democratic nominee, he leads state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I) by 10 points, 40-30-13. With state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) at the helm for the Democrats, she leads by nine points, 38-29-13. If former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) wins the nomination, he leads by five points, 36-31-15. What's the reason for these consistent Democratic leads in a Republican year you might ask? The answer is independent Tom Horner, who is siphoning off significant Republican support from Tom Emmer (R). In the Democratic primary, Dayton leads Kelliher and Entenza 40-30-17. Meanwhile, Kelliher--who was endorsed by the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party--has been endorsed by the Star Tribune.

NV-Gov: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 19 points, 50% to 31%. Earlier this month, Mason-Dixon found Sandoval up by 11 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Dan Onorato (D) by 11 points, 50% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Current rating: Likely Republican.

SC-Gov: Rasmussen's also out with a new poll of the South Carolina gubernatorial contest, and find state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 14 points, 49% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-12: Lori Edwards (D) is out with an internal poll showing her benefiting from the Tea Party candidacy of Randy Wilkinson, who's taking votes away from Republican Dennis Ross. The poll finds Edwards leading Ross 35% to 32%, with Wilkinson at an impressive 20%. Keep in mind, though, that this is an internal poll--so take it with a grain of salt. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-11: Survey USA is out with a new poll that finds Rep. Heath Shuler (D) edging businessman Jeff Miller (R) by just one point, 45% to 44%. Our current rating of this race is Likely Democrat, but this poll may change that to something more competitive.

Daily Rundown: 6/28/10

CO-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) in the Senate GOP primary, citing her as the more electable general election candidate. This could potentially help Norton shift back the momentum of the race to her after her Tea Party-backed opponent, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), has led by double-digits in recent polling.

IL-Sen: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias's (D) respite from media criticism following Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) long line of mistakes and gaffes appears to be over. He has been subpoenaed in former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's trial.

IA-Sen: EMILY's List, a group that raises money for pro-choice female candidates, has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) in her underdog bid against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). Polls have been all over the place in this race--some showing her down by single digits and others showing her down by more than 20 points. But this endorsement will definitely give Conlin a financial boost (even though she has her own money to pour into the race) as she takes on the entrenched Republican incumbent.

KS-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in the Senate GOP primary by 20 points, 53% to 33%. Looks like Sarah Palin needs to come stump for Tiahrt sooner rather than later.

SC-Sen: South Carolina law enforcement officials will investigate if any laws were broken with the way that Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene (D) has been representing his personal finances. The focus will probably be on how collected the $10,400 to pay the filing fee to run for Senate while he couldn't even afford to hire a lawyer for the felony obscenity charges he faces.

FL-Gov: Newt Gingrich is the latest Republican to endorse Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) gubernatorial campaign, as he fends off a challenge from self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush were the last two big-name Republicans to endorse McCollum. Meanwhile, Bud Chiles (I) is refusing to drop out of the race despite complaints from Democrats that his candidacy will siphon off votes from state CFO Alex Sink (D) and allow a Republican victory.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race found Haley up by 21 points, but that can be attributed to the large post-primary-victory bumps that Rasmussen has consistently found for candidates of both parties across the country.

MS-01: Following an endorsement from the National Rifle Association last week, Rep. Travis Childers (D) now has the backing of National Right to Life, an anti-abortion organization. It looks like Childers is winning the early battle to establish conservative bona fides in his race against state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R).

SC: Haley & Scott Win, Inglis Ousted

In Tuesday's South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, as expected, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) cruised to a 65-35 victory over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R). Haley is heavily favored to defeat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) in the general election and make history as South Carolina's first non-white-male governor.

Everyone's making a lot of hay over the diversity she brings to the GOP, and how--as a conservative Indian-American woman governor from a deep south state--she will be at the top of everyone's VP short list even as early as 2012.

And speaking of 2012, its clear that this was also a big win for potential 2012 hopefuls Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, who endorsed Haley at critical times in her campaign.

Romney endorsed her back when she was "Nikki who?", as she likes to say, and stuck in single digits. He also donated $42,000 to her campaign from various PACs and campaigned with her in person for her runoff bid.

Palin, meanwhile, joined former South Carolina first lady Jenny Sanford in endorsing Haley at a critical time, immediately launching her into frontrunner status. And Palin stood by her side when Haley was accused of infidelity by swatting down the claims. Haley, for her part, actually gave a shout-out to Palin in her victory speech: "She gave us that boost we needed when we needed it."

So if Haley becomes governor, and both Romney and Palin run in 2012, its hard to say who she would endorse in the all-important South Carolina primary. She might just stay out of it completely, given that she owes both of these national GOP figures a huge favor.

Anyway, back to 2010. In South Carolina's 1st district GOP runoff, state Rep. Tim Scott (R) handily defeated Paul (son of Strom) Thurmond (R) 68% to 32%. Scott--who was endorsed by the entire House GOP leadership, the Club for Growth, Sarah Palin, and more--will likely go on to become the first black member of the GOP House caucus since J.C. Watts of Oklahoma retired in 2002.

In the 3rd district race to succeed now unemployed Gresham Barrett, state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) came back to narrowly defeat businessman Richard Cash (R) in the runoff, to the tune of 51.5% to 48.5%. Duncan also had the support of the Club for Growth and was the favorite despite finishing a surprise second to Cash in the first round of voting, while Cash wasn't even supposed to make the runoff.

And finally, in the 4th district, Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was humiliated last night by a 71-29 loss to Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), a Tea Party favorite. Inglis was a little too moderate and a little too willing to compromise with Democrats for this dark red district during his time in Congress. He is the third House member and the fifth member of Congress to get ousted in a primary this year.

Runoff Tuesday: What to Watch For

Voters in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah will head to the polls tomorrow to vote for their second-round choices in key House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests.

In the Carolinas, there are a number of key runoff races because neither candidate reached the (40% in North Carolina and 50% in South Carolina) threshold to clinch the nomination outright. And in Utah, neither candidate in a few select races reached the 60% threshold to clinch the nomination at their party's state nominating convention.

So here's what you should watch for tomorrow in what we (and everybody else) are calling "Runoff Tuesday":

NC-Sen: In the first round of voting, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) bested former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), the preferred candidate of the DSCC, 36% to 27%. Since then, all of the momentum has swung to Marshall, receiving the endorsements of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis (D) and progressive grassroots movements like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America. The only public poll released since the first round of voting was from PPP, which found the candidates tied at 36%. With extremely low turnout expected and the inherent unpredictability of runoffs in general (see: Arkansas), anything could happen here. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Marshall comes away with the nomination.

NC-08: The GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) has turned quite ridiculous since the first round of voting. Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has come under fire for past criminal activity (including time in prison), drug use, declaring himself a prophet, and refusing to pay child support among other things by local media organizations and his rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R). D'Annunzio, who has self-funded the majority of his campaign and finished ahead of Johnson in the first round of voting, backed out of a televised debate and slapped Johnson with a defamation lawsuit since then. Meanwhile, D'Annunzio has lost almost all support among local Tea Party groups and other outside groups and Johnson has garnered the open support of the House GOP leadership. A PPP poll taken of the race last week showed Johnson leading D'Annunzio 49% to 39%, and showed him to be a much stronger general election candidate. If Johnson loses this one, I'll be flabbergasted.

SC-Gov: After the slanderous first round of voting that included multiple charges of infidelity and outward racism, the runoff between state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) seems fairly...dare I say civilized? The only controversy that has arose since the primary has been about Haley's Sikh heritage, but even that was pretty quiet. The South Carolina GOP is fairly split between the two, but it doesn't really matter as Haley (who was one percentage point shy on clinching the GOP nod outright) looks poised to cruise to victory in round two. The real drama in this race will be who gets the credit for the win (aside from Haley): Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or the Republican Governors Association--which endorsed Haley right after round one.

SC-01: State Rep. Tim Scott (R) is trying to become to first African-American in the House GOP caucus since J.C. Watts retired in 2002. He is taking on Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of late legendary South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond. Scott bested Thurmond 32% to 16% in the first round of voting, and appears to have all the momentum moving forward. He has since picked up the endorsements of Sarah Palin, the House GOP leadership, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Thurmond, meanwhile, has been endorsed by several of his former primary rivals, including the big-named Carroll Campbell III (R).

SC-03: Businessman Richard Cash (R) surprised a lot of people by finishing first in the primary with 25%, with Club for Growth-backed state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) taking 23%. Your guess is as mine for who comes out on top here.

SC-04: The race in this district is almost sure to fuel the "anti-incumbent" narrative that the mainstream media is so attached to. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) beat Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 39% to 28% in the primary, mostly fueled by conservative anger over Inglis's vote for TARP. Since then, Inglis's House colleagues have essentially left him for dead. Gowdy is almost certain to seal the deal tomorrow, making Inglis the fifth member of congress to be ousted in a primary.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was the first member of congress to be ousted this cycle. Bennett finished third at the state GOP nominating convention, making him ineligible for the primary. Businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) won 57% of the vote at the convention while attorney Mike Lee (R) won 42%. Bridgewater and Lee agree on almost everything and both have support from local tea parties, so the primary campaign narrative has been: "do you want a businessman or lawyer in the Senate?" Bennett, who was believed to have more influence among Utah GOP voters than with the conservative convention delegates, has endorsed Bridgewater. Lee has boasted support from conservative ideologues such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), and Freedom Works PAC chairman Dick Armey. The only poll taken of the race showed Bridgewater with a 9-point lead over Lee, but a quarter of GOP voters are still undecided. This is expected be an old-fashioned horse race of a finish.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is taking no chances in reclaiming the Democratic nomination as he tries to stave off a challenge to his left from teacher and progressive activist Claudia Wright (D). Matheson beat Wright by a surprisingly small 55% to 45% margin at the state convention, and has since outspent her 42-to-1 in response. Wright has tapped into Democrats' frustration with Matheson's "no" votes on health care and cap-and-trade as well as his conservative views on immigration and gay marriage. But it's not clear whether Wright can turn that frustration into votes. A poll taken of the race this weekend shows her trailing Matheson 52% to 33%. Utah Republicans are surely rooting for Wright to win the nomination, as she would be a much easier target in the general election.

Daily Rundown: 6/21/10

CO-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) leading in their respective primaries. Bennet leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) 53% to 36% in the Democratic primary. Buck, an insurgent who is drawing support from the Tea Party movement, leads establishment favorite former Lt. Gov. Norton (R) 53% to 37% in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Buck leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 9 points. Norton leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 4.

CT-Sen: Investor Peter Schiff (R) collected enough signatures to get on the Republican primary ballot against former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP. Schiff, who was an economic advisor to Rep. Ron Paul's (R) 2008 presidential campaign, didn't get the support of the necessary 15% of delegates at the state GOP convention, which forced him to collect 8,268 signatures to qualify as an official Republican candidate. Schiff has strong libertarian leanings and will be the extreme underdog in the race against McMahon.

FL-Sen: A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) expanding his lead over Marco Rubio (R). While most previous polls have shown Crist with a small single-digit lead (if any at all), this one has him up by 11 points. Crist leads with 42%, while Rubio picks up 31% and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) receives 14% of the vote.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) is hitting back against Sen. Harry Reid's (D) volley of attacks with a new web ad called "Crickets." It charges Reid's attack ads as nothing more than distractions from his own unpopular record as senator and majority leader. It's worth a look.

UT-Sen: A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll released Saturday finds businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) with a narrow lead over attorney Mike Lee (R) in the GOP primary to replace Sen. Bob Bennett (R). Bridgewater, who has been endorsed by Bennett, leads Lee 42% to 33%. But that lead might not mean anything, seeing as 25% of GOP voters are still undecided. Voters go to the polls Tuesday, and most political observers are expecting this race to be very close.

AL-Gov: The results of the recount are in: businessman Tim James (R), who personally paid the $200,000 for the recount, actually lost by more than 200 votes to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), instead of the 167 vote deficit he had on election night. Bentley has now officially earned a spot in the GOP runoff against Bradley Byrne (R).

CO-Gov: That same Survey USA poll also took a look at the state's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, they found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leading Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) 57% to 29%. In general election match-ups, the poll found McInnis leading Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47% to 43%--while Maes led Hickenlooper 45% to 44%.

FL-Gov: That same Chamber of Commerce poll confirms what other recent polling has found: self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R) has jumped into the lead ahead of Attorney General Bill McCollum (R), 35% to 30%. McCollum, who has a reputation of being a lackluster candidate from a couple of previous statewide campaigns, needs to pick up the pace and find a coherent message while Scott floods the airwaves with ads.

SC-Gov: Politico reports that Mitt Romney has donated $42,000 to state Rep. Nikki Haley's (R) gubernatorial campaign. PACs are only allowed to donate $3,500 to a candidate per cycle, but Romney found a way around it: "With one federal PAC and five statewide PACs each maxing out at $3,500 for Haley in both the GOP primary and general elections, Romney has contributed a total of $42,000." Apparently, Romney really wants Haley to take the governor's mansion so he can cash in a few favors with her in the all-important South Carolina primary in 2012--especially since Haley and Palin appear to be very buddy-buddy these days.

NY-23: Here's some rare bad news for Republicans. The state Independence Party just endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R) for their ballot line. Meanwhile, the state Conservative Party has endorsed Doug Hoffman (R), who lost the special election in this district in 2009. Both Doheny and Hoffman are also running for the GOP nomination, so this means that whoever loses the GOP nomination could run on a third-party ballot line--effectively splitting the Republican vote and allowing freshman Rep. Bill Owens (D) a relatively easy path to reelection.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Rick Berg (R) leading Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 51% to 44% in the state's at-large congressional district. Their poll from last month showed Berg with a similar 9-point lead.

PA-03: The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List is targeting freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over her vote for the "pro-abortion" health care reform bill, even though Dahlkemper claims to be pro-life. They have pledged to throw $300,000 into the race to attack Dahlkemper and support her GOP rival, businessman Mike Kelly (R).

SC-01: Sarah Palin joined the House GOP leadership in endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott (R) ahead of his runoff against Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond. This is presumably because they want to have at least one African American in their caucus.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) leads retired teacher and activist Claudia Wright (D) 52% to 33% in the Democratic primary, according the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll mentioned above. This lead seems a bit small, seeing as he's outspending Wright 42-to-1 ahead of Tuesday's primary.

Daily Rundown: 6/15/10

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) is out with a new ad attacking primary rival former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) for being a lobbyist and for attacking McCain's record with the Navy without ever having served himself. Notice the hot-button issue of immigration was absent.

LA-Sen: Two new polls out in this race. A new poll from Magellan Strategies, a known GOP pollster, shows Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 20 points, 51% to 31%. But a new PPP poll shows Melancon down by just 9 points, 46% to 37%. These are the first polls that have been taken of the race since all of the drama with the Gulf Coast oil spill began. That may be a huge issue between the two candidates heading toward the general election.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) just gave another $20 million to her campaign, bringing her self-fund total to a whopping $90 million. She previously pledged to spend up to $150 million out of pocket to win gubernatorial election. In other news, the New York Times reports that during her time as CEO, Whitman paid a $200,000 settlement to an eBay employee for shoving her.

FL-Gov: An internal poll out for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) shows him tied at 40% with former health care executive Rick Scott (R). The most recent public poll from Quinnipiac showed Scott up by 13.

SC-Gov: Attorney General Henry McMaster (R), who finished third in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary last Tuesday, will endorse state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) for the Republican nomination. Most of the South Carolina GOP has rallied behind Haley now except for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who endorsed Haley's runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr (R) is out with an internal poll showing him within seven points of Rep. Ben Chandler (D). The poll found Chandler leading Barr 45% to 38%, but under the all-important 50% mark.

MS-01: An internal poll for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) shows him leading Rep. Travis Childers (D) 50% to 42%. It shows Nunnelee with a 44/8 favorable rating while Childers sits at 49/30.

NC-08: A new PPP poll shows former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) outperforming businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) against Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in the general election. Kissell bests D'Annunzio 48% to 26%, but only leads Johnson by six points, 41% to 35%.

Swing Districts: A new national NPR poll finds generic Republicans leading generic Democrats 49% to 41% in 70 battleground House districts across the country. Sixty of those seats are held by Democrats while only ten are held by Republicans. Before Republicans start to pop champagne and reclaim the House as a result of this poll, they should remember that Democrats have shown in the PA-12 special election that they can win local races with solid candidates focusing on local issues.

NRCC: Rep. Mike J. Rogers (R), who's in charge of the NRCC's incumbent retention program, urged GOP contributors to donate to just nine Republican incumbents who are at risk of losing their reelection bids. They are: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), Charles Djou (HI-01), Joseph Cao (LA-02), Lee Terry (NE-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Dave Reichert (WA-08).

Pretty solid list. The only two I would have added are Ken Calvert (CA-44)--but he looks like he's in pretty good shape--and Michele Bachmann (MN-06), but she is such a prodigious fundraiser that she doesn't need any outside help from NRCC.

Daily Rundown: 6/14/10

IL-Sen: Conservative businessman Mike Niecestro is reportedly mulling an independent run for the state's open Senate seat. Said Niecestro: "There is no difference between Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D)." He added: "I am a disgusted Republican who has had it with the people the party throws at us." He said that he would be willing to throw in $1 million out of his own pocket to boost his chances. Conventional wisdom is that if Niecestro joins the race, it could be a big boon to Giannoulias as he could siphon votes away on Kirk's right flank.

KY-Sen: The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Rand Paul (R) is not a board-certified ophthalmologist like he claims to be, and that he hasn't been for the past five years. Asked when he would comment on the issue, Paul responded: "Uh, you know, never... What does this have to do with our election?"

SC-Sen: Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D), the Democrat that was defeated by political unknown Alvin Greene (D) in Tuesday's primary, is calling for a formal investigation of the election results. He claims that investigation is not targeted against Greene, but rather against the touch-screen voting machines. White House adviser David Axelrod also weighed in on the situation, saying the result "doesn't appear" legitimate.

AL-Gov: As state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) pivots toward the July 13 runoff against former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R), he has started to shake up his staff and bring in former aides to Mike Huckabee (R). He hired Bryan Sanders, a top aide to Huckabee's 2008 presidential campaign, as his new campaign manager, among others.

FL-Gov: Mitt Romney will endorse and fundraise for Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) in his primary battle against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R). Meanwhile, Scott has challenged McCollum to a series of four televised debates ahead of the August 24 primary.

MI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds all three of the top GOP contenders (Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Attorney Gen. Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder) leading both Democratic candidates (State House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero). Snyder still appears to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. Meanwhile, Cox picked up the endorsement of the anti-abortion group "Right to Life Michigan."

OH-Gov: Here's some good news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The NRA is endorsing him over former Rep. John Kasich (R) in his reelection bid.

SC-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) outperforming her runoff rival, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), in general election match-ups with state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D). The poll finds Haley leading Sheheen by 21 points, while Barrett only leads by 8 points. Meanwhile, despite early whispers of her being whisked to the national stage, Haley is promising to serve a full term if elected.

AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber (R), the Tea Party favorite in the Alabama 2nd district runoff, is up with an...interesting new ad called "Gather Your Armies". You just have to see it for yourself. Barber will face Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite, in the July 13 runoff.

Daily Rundown: 6/11/10

CA-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the California Senate race, from Rasmussen, shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five-point lead over former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, 48% to 43%. In other news, Fiorina was caught on open-mic Thursday criticizing Meg Whitman's decision to go on Sean Hannity and making fun of Boxer's hair.

FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.

NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.

NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.

WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.

CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.

ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.

MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.

NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).

NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.

VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."

The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.

Daily Rundown: 6/10/10

CO-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan Strategies released a poll showing Weld County District Attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R) leading former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R), the "establishment" candidate, 42% to 32%. While Buck does seem to be closing on Norton very well (last month's PPP poll had Norton only up by 5 points), this lead looks a bit too large given that the dynamics of the race haven't changed much since last month. But it looks like Norton's seeing a similar Buck surge in her internals and is going up with an ad in the right-leaning Colorado Springs area, trying to make inroads with the kind of conservative voters that have supported Buck so far.

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) 55% to 35%. This 20-point margin is a good deal larger than McMahon's internal poll found yesterday, which only had her down by 13.

KY-Sen: Looks like the wounds between Rand Paul (R) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) are starting to heal. Despite their long-running disputes and differences, McConnell announced that he will host a fundraiser for Paul. McConnell, of course, strongly backed Secretary of State Trey Grayson against Paul in the GOP primary last month.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds newly-minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle with a double-digit lead over Sen. Harry Reid (D). According to the poll, Angle leads Reid 50% t0 39%. While I do think Angle has the slight edge in the race at this point, this lead seems a little much. And Rasmussen has been known to find huge post-primary bumps for Republicans (see: Paul, Rand), so take this with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton--fresh off of his successful stumping for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas--will hold a rally for Reid next week.

NC-Sen: Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), who lost the state's Democratic primary to DSCC favorite Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) last month, is backing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) in the state's June 22 runoff. Marshall is another woman who's running against a DSCC favorite in the form of former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), who finished second to Marshall in the first round of voting on May 4. "Like me, she was told to stay out of her state's U.S. Senate race," Brunner wrote in a fundraising e-mail for Marshall. "Like me, she didn't look back."

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D); an unknown, unemployed veteran who did not campaign, raise or spend money or release ads, and paid the $10,000 filing fee out of pocket; shocked South Carolina Democrats by winning the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Jim DeMint (R) over Charleston City Councilman Vic Rawl (D) on Tuesday. This race was not even supposed to be close, but Greene won by an astounding 18-point margin.

Some attribute it to Greene being black in a state with majority black Democratic electorate. Some attribute it to his name being first on the ballot. But that doesn't seem enough to explain this anomaly and now, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), among others, are questioning whether Greene was some sort of "plant" by the GOP. Clyburn even called for an investigation. Meanwhile, after his win, it was released that he was charged with showing a college student obscene photos last fall. Despite pressure to drop out, Greene is vowing to stay in the race. Could this story get any stranger?

AL-Gov: Businessman Tim James (R), who lost a spot in the GOP gubernatorial runoff to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) by just 208 votes, is asking for a statewide recount. And he's willing to dish out the $200,000 to pay for it. Meanwhile, Bentley is pivoting to the runoff against state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R). The winner of that will face state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) in the general election.

CA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in a statistical dead heat with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) a mere two days after the primary. Brown edges Whitman 45% to 44%.

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac also took a look at Connecticut's gubernatorial Democratic primary. They found Ned Lamont (D) with a comfortable 17-point lead over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), 39% to 22%.

IL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Sen. Bill Brady (R) expanding his lead over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady now leads Quinn by 11 points, 47% to 36%. Their previous poll showed Brady up by 7 points. Brady has been hammering Quinn on airwaves recently, tying the governor to Rod Blagojevich and the state's economic woes.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) released an internal poll showing her with a huge lead, 62% to 28%, over Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney isn't missing a beat and will campaign for Haley "soon," meaning before the runoff vote. Romney is likely trying to curry more favor with the likely future governor after she got a bit too chummy with Sarah Palin in the weeks leading up to the primary.

ID-01: A new poll from Greg Smith and Associates shows state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) starting out with a 12-point lead over freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D), leading the congressman 36% to 24%. Minnick spokesman John Foster derided the poll as a "joke," calling Smith "notorious for being inaccurate."

NY-13: Politico reports: "Lou Wein, a repeated unsuccessful candidate for statewide office over the years, says he'll join the Republican primary fray to take on Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon in the fall." Wein will join former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who's been endorsed by the state Conservative Party, and Michael Allegretti (R), who's been endorsed by the Staten Island GOP.

Daily Rundown: 6/9/10

AR-Sen: The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is refusing to promise that it will support Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in the general election. The SEIU was part of a larger coalition of unions that spent millions of dollars trying to unseat Lincoln, and is not so quick to cozy up to her yet in her race against Rep. John Boozman (R). “Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members," said senior White House official. "If even half that total had been well targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November."

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican Senate candidates, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (the establishment favorite) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (the Tea Party-backed insurgent) to have small leads over their potential Democratic rivals. Norton leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) by six points and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) by one point. Buck leads Bennet by five points and leads Romanoff by six.

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon (R) is out with an internal poll showing her down only 13 points to Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), 51% to 38%. A Blumenthal internal poll had him up by a similar 15 point margin, but it was taken in the wake of his service record controversy. Public polling of the race has shown Blumenthal with bigger leads.

FL-Sen: Two new polls out in this race. Quinnipiac finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) edging former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) 37% to 33%, while Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) only picks up 17%. They also find Crist running about even with Meek among Democrats, and ahead of both of his rivals among independents--something he needs to keep up to have a shot at winning. Rasmussen finds a tie ballgame, with Crist and Rubio pulling in 37% apiece, while Meek sits in third with 15%.

IL-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rep. Mark Kirk with a slight lead over state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, 42% to 39%. Their last poll had Kirk up by eight points. This poll comes out at a tough time for Kirk campaign. He has been under fire for repeatedly misstating his military record. And he just lost the endorsement of two environmental groups, the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters, who had supported him in the past. LCV's Tony Massaro explained: "We can no longer depend on how he is going to vote."

FL-Gov: Quinnipiac also polled the Florida governor's race, which found that Bud Chiles, the newly entered independent candidate in the race, will be a significant factor. If Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) is the GOP nominee, he would lead state CFO Alex Sink (D) 33% to 25%, with Chiles in third with 19%. If Rick Scott (R) is the Republican nominee, he would lead Sink 35% to 26% while Chiles would pick up 13%.

SC-Gov: Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), the underdog in a runoff with likely nominee Nikki Haley (R), is vowing to stay in the race, despite the Republican Governors Association's wishes. But he didn't attack Haley in a press conference today when asked questions about what the contrasts will be with Nikki Haley in the runoff. Perhaps he is ensuring that he will finish an honorable (a first in South Carolina) second place.

NJ-06: The GOP primary in this race, which is not on my list of the 102 most competitive House races but is still worth watching, is the only one that has not been called from last night. With 99.8% of precincts reporting, Tea Party-backed Highlands Mayor Anna Little leads establishment favorite businesswoman Diane Gooch by 61 votes out of more than 13,000 cast. I smell a recount. The winner will take on entrenched Rep. Frank Pallone (D), who has a $4 million dollar campaign warchest at his disposal.

6/8 Primaries Wrap-Up

Last night was very important in offering us some insight into the mindset of GOP voters across the country, and will have large implications on many general election races. Also, many women did very well last night in both parties, and really have the chance to expand their numbers in congress and statehouses everywhere.

In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) withstood a $10 million barrage of attacks from outside labor groups and narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff.

Conventional wisdom was that Lincoln was a goner. But with the support of Arkansas heavyweight Bill Clinton, a strong electoral base in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts (which happened to be having special House elections that night), and a strong closing message ("I'd rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas"), she swam above the strong national anti-incumbent wave.

Looking forward to the general election, Lincoln will have an even greater challenge as she has to swing back to the right to face Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election. Early polling shows Boozman up by anywhere from 17 to 38 points. Election Frontier currently rates this: Lean Republican.

In California, GOP voters chose two female former CEOs, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, as their nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively. They will take on two veteran Democratic politicians, Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, in the general election. Now we'll get to see who California voters dislike more: CEOs or politicians.

The only thing I could learn about Maine gubernatorial race was that the Republican nominee, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), was backed strongly by the local Tea Party movement. Score another win for them.

In Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) scored a major ideological victory last night in the GOP nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). It looked like Reid's only hope would be if GOP voters nominated Angle, given her extreme conservative views. And last night, he got his wish and now has a chance to win a reelection race that most thought was a lost cause.

Angry Nevada GOP voters showed that they don't care about general election viability, or at least aren't willing to compromise their conservative ideological purity to make the best long-term decision of who to nominate. And with Angle, they'll get what they voted for.

This is sure to be one of the nastiest, most expensive, heavily watched, overanalyzed, overpublicized races in the country. The winner of this race will no doubt be on the front page on the day after Election Day.

In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) all-but clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and should now start to look forward to the general election. Despite the (bizarre) barrage of attacks launched against her on all sides, Haley came out unscathed and will most likely be the next governor of the Palmetto state.

As First Read points out, Nikki's success may play a big role in the 2012 presidential primaries. Evey winner of the third-in-the-nation South Carolina Republican primary since 1980 has gone on to become the nominee.

"And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham's censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right."

For the Republican primaries in House races across the county, establishment-picked candidates fared reasonably well last night.

Establishment picks David Harmer (CA-11), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Scott Rigell (VA-02), and Robert Hurt (VA-05) all survived their contested primaries.

But a few insurgent candidates also pulled off wins last night. For instance, state Sen. Brad Zaun (R) whooped establishment favorite Jim Gibbons in Iowa's 3rd congressional district.

And Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was forced into a runoff against insurgent Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), and will probably lose due to his vote in favor of TARP.

SC: We're in for a Pair of Runoffs

In the first marquee race of the night, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) was just shy of the votes needed to avoid a runoff in the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary.

Haley snagged 49% of the vote to Rep. Gresham Barrett's 22%. She will be the heavy favorite in the June 22 runoff, the winner of which will face state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D)--who avoided a runoff of his own--in the general election.

In the 4th district, Rep. Bob Inglis's (R) performance was anemic tonight. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), who is running to Inglis's right, beat the congressman 40% to 27% but fell short of the 50%+1 to clinch the nomination outright. Gowdy will be heavily favored to unseat Inglis in the June 22 runoff.

UPDATE: Politico is reporting that the Republican Governors Association is endorsing Haley, and is trying to put pressure on Barrett not to contest the runoff. Good luck with that.

Daily Rundown: 6/8/10

CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is not waiting for Carly Fiorina (R) to officially win the Senate GOP primary tonight. Acknowledging Fiorina's fundraising prowess, Boxer told her supporters she had a goal of raising $200,000 by the time polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific time tonight.

DE-Sen: Vice President Joe Biden will come back to his home state to campaign for New Castle County executive Chris Coons (D) later this month. Biden had ignored the race since his son, Beau, had decided not to run for the seat. Coons faces a major uphill battle against Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate former governor who has high favorable ratings.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) with decent-sized leads over his two possible challengers. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 7 points and leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham by 10 points. Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll shows Burr with even larger leads, topping Marshall by 14 points and Cunningham by 12. The Democratic nominee will be decided by a June 22 runoff election.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland 47% to 42%. Their poll from last month had Kasich leading by only one point.

PA-Gov: Here's yet another poll from Rasmussen. This one finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) way ahead of Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D), 49% to 33%.

SC-Gov: For once, Nikki Haley is getting a respite from attacks. Attorney General Henry McMaster (R) is going after Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in a new ad, calling him "too weak to be governor" and attacking him for his vote in favor of TARP. Polls have shown McMaster and Barrett to be deadlocked for second place, and whoever finishes in second will most likely join Haley in a runoff.

FL-24: Mike Huckabee endorsed former Winter Park County Commissioner Karen Diebel (R) yesterday to take on freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). Diebel has already been endorsed by former Rep. Tom Tancredo and Rep. Brian Bilbray. She will face off against steakhouse chain owner Craig Miller (R) in the GOP primary, who can self-fund his campaign.

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is suing his GOP runoff rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R), "with a defamation suit again alleging that Johnson has lodged a series of false attacks against him." Johnson came out with an ad last week accusing D'Annunzio of a “life of drugs, crime and time served in prison” and refusing to pay child support, all of which was confirmed by an article from the Charlotte Observer. The runoff is on June 22.

VA-05: Here's some last-minute shenanigans. Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), viewed as the underdog going into today's primary, released an 11th hour robo-call with former Rep. Virgil Goode (R) saying "Jim McKelvey wouldn't care if he went to Washington and made a bunch of people mad." State Sen. Robert Hurt (R), the establishment favorite in the race, accused the message of being misleading, as Goode hadn't endorsed McKelvey.

June 8 Primaries: What to Watch For

Tomorrow night, the Boston Celtics will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers coming off of an important Game 2 victory in L.A. , where the Lakers will try to shut down the virtually unstoppable Ray Allen.

And, oh yeah, voters in eleven states will go to the polls to select their party's nominees. This is sure to be the biggest primary night so far, so here's the rundown on what to keep your eye on in the highest profile races of the night:

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) will face off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff election in will be one of the most watched races of the night. Lincoln edged out Halter 45% to 43% in the first round of voting, but the word on the ground is that Halter's supporters are more likely to show up to the polls in what is expected to be a very low turnout event. Bill Clinton came to his home state to stump for Lincoln, who has tried to paint herself as more liberal since the first round of voting. Unions have spent tens of millions of dollars on Lincoln attack ads on behalf of Halter, who is more liberal than Lincoln. I'm giving the edge to Halter in this one.

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, is in a runoff against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), who is more conservative. Causey has even claimed that Woolridge might defect to the GOP if elected. Woolridge led Causey in the first round of voting 38% to 27%, but Causey appears to have all the momentum in the race and can boast endorsements from Bill Clinton and two of his former rivals. With low turnout and a lack of public polling data, this race is completely up in the air.

AR-02: Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) will face state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in a runoff. Elliott, who is trying to become the state's first black congresswoman, led Wills 40% t0 28% in the first round. The more moderate Wills, feeling the need to make up that ground, attacked Elliott as "too liberal" for the district. Many of Elliott's supporters thought that "too liberal" was code for "too black" in a state with significant racial tensions.

CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) looks ready to claim the GOP nomination after a hard-fought battle with former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R). Campbell ran ahead of Fiorina in early polling, but fizzled as he ran out of money towards the end. Campbell's closing argument is that he has a better shot of beating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, but it hasn't seemed to resonate with GOP voters. Fiorina has consistently led Campbell by 15 points or more in each poll released in the last two weeks. DeVore, the Tea Party favorite in the race, failed to catch on and has remained quietly in third place.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), after faltering a bit early last month, is poised to win the GOP nomination over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R). This race was absurdly expensive and negative, but the last six polls have shown Whitman up by more than 20 points, meaning she won the ad and message war. Whitman, assuming she wins, will take on Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election, who has built up a sizable campaign warchest of his own.

CA-11: Three Republicans are jockeying to take on vulnerable sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in the general election. Attorney David Harmer, who is known for his better-than-expected performance in the CA-10 special election last year, looks like the establishment choice and can boast an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Also running are self-funding vineyard owner Brad Goehring--famous for joking about "hunting liberals"--and Elizabeth Emken, a former VP of "Autism Speaks" who was endorsed by Rick Santorum (of all people).

IA-Gov: Former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R), the establishment favorite, has a large lead over his two rivals, conservative favorite Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts, according to recent polling. Vander Plaats, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and evangelical leader James Dobson, has to hope for an anti-establishment furor and a surge of conservative and Tea Party activists at the polls to make this race close. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have weighed in on behalf of Branstad, a tactically safe move for the two likely 2012 presidential contenders in this important first-in-the-nation caucus state.

IA-03: In the competitive 3rd district, Jim Gibbons, a financial analyst and former Iowa State wrestling coach, looks to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Leonard Boswell (D). Gibbons is the NRCC favorite in the race and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. His biggest competition for the nomination comes state Sen. Brad Zaun. Gibbons also has to get past Tea Party favorite Dave Funk and four other Republicans. The crowded field may prevent anyone from getting 35%, which is needed to clinch the nomination. If no one reaches that number, the nominee will be decided by party insiders at a special convention soon after.

ME-Gov: This race has been ignored by pretty much everyone. The Democratic and Republican primaries for this race are crowded with over a dozen no-name candidates who all failed to even reach 20% in a recent poll. And 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans were undecided as of a week before the primary. State Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be the slight frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and business Les Otten appears to have the edge for the GOP nod, but the race is so unsettled that anything could happen.

NV-Sen: This is another one of the marquee races of the night, which is to be expected given that the winner of the GOP will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former state GOP chair and casino executive Sue Lowden was the early favorite in the race, but made a series of gaffes including her idea of bartering chickens for medical care and her (alleged) use of an illegally donated RV on the campaign trail. This created an opening for ultra-conservative former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is backed by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth. Angle has recently taken the lead in the polls, and has come under fire from Lowden. Businessman Danny Tarkanian, the most electable Republican who has quietly risen in the polls to tie Lowden, is hoping to be the beneficiary of all the mudslinging between Lowden and Angle and sneak a win tomorrow night.

NV-Gov: Former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) will almost definitely unseat scandal plagued Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in tomorrow's primary. Sandoval, who is obviously a much stronger general election candidate than Gibbons, will face Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (Harry's son) in the fall. On a side note, if Sandoval is nominated, it will mean that two Latino candidates have been nominated in southwestern states (Susana Martinez is the GOP nominee in New Mexico). Perhaps this is a sign that the GOP is starting the realize the importance of the Latino vote in that region?

NJ-03: Since Chris Christie unseated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in 2009, New Jersey Republicans have been bullish about their prospects to unseat freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in 2010. The NRCC's favored candidate is former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), who has run a lackluster campaign so far. Runyan, who is pro-choice, is getting a challenge to his right from Justin Murphy (R), a conservative activist who ran in the GOP primary in 2008. Despite Runyan's slow start, he should win the nomination with some ease. But if Murphy riles up enough conservative support, he could score an upset which would all but ruin the GOP's chances of taking back the seat.

SC-Gov: What a weird race its been. State Rep. Nikki Haley became the frontrunner about a month ago, and earned the endorsements of Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and the Mark Sanford political machine. Then she was accused of having an extra-marital affair by two separate men, neither of which was ever proven. Then, she was called a "raghead" by a fellow Republican because of her Indian descent. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is currently in fourth place in the polls, just touted the results of a polygraph test which "proved" he didn't start any of the affairs rumors, and asked Haley to take a test herself on the validity of the claims. Yet despite all of the ridiculous attacks lobbed against her and the three-ring circus of a primary she's gone through, Haley still leads the pack by a significant margin. But with four serious candidates in the race, it looks like Haley may fall short of 50% and be forced into a runoff with either Rep. Gresham Barrett or Attorney General Henry McMaster.

In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) appears to have a slight advantage over state school Superintendent Jim Rex (D). State Sen. Robert Ford, who is black, is also running and has been in the double digits in some polls, meaning a runoff is possible.

SD-AL: Three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to take on the vulnerable Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) is probably the favorite given his superior name recognition, but has so far has been a mediocre candidate with lackluster fundraising. He'll face state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem, who have both gone on the air ahead of tomorrow's primary and seem to have legitimate shots at winning.

VA-02: Auto executive Scott Rigell (R) is the NRCC favorite in this race. He's a member of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, has a ton of money to self-fund his candidacy, and has been endorsed by Gov. Bob McConnell, Minority Leader John Boehner, and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. But that doesn't mean he's going to win. His two top rivals, Iraq War veteran Bert Mizusawa and Tea Party favorite businessman Ben Loyola, have been aggressive fundraisers and have attacked Rigell for his $1,000 campaign donation to Barack Obama in 2008. Still, Rigell is the heavy favorite to win this one, but probably by a smaller margin than you might think. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in the general election.

VA-05: The NRCC likes state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in this primary, but he certainly is not well-liked by the conservative wing of the party. With his vote for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) tax-increasing 2004 state budget (h/t Swing State Project), he made a lot of enemies in the party. But the conservative wing failed to settle on one candidate, and their vote share will probably be divided between Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, teacher Feda Morton, real estate developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, and veteran Michael McPadden--allowing Hurt to win the nomination.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who ran for the seat in 2008, is facing off against Fairfax Country Supervisor Pat Herrity (R) for the GOP nomination to take on freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in this suburban D.C. district. Fimian has outraised Herrity, but GOP voters may go for the fresh face this time and pick Herrity to face Connolly, who has a large target on his back.

Daily Rundown: 6/7/10

FL-Sen: A lawyer for former state GOP chairman Jim Greer said this past weekend that Gov. Charlie Crist (I) signed off on a deal that allowed Greer--who's under investigation for criminal fraud among other things during his time as chairman--and his associates "to steer party money into consulting contracts that benefited them personally." Crist has denied all of the accusations, saying he was oblivious to all of Greer's criminal actions as chairman. Not only is this a major campaign problem for him, but also potentially a criminal one should Greer decide to bring Crist down with him.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a dead heat for the state's open Senate seat, each picking up 43% of likely voters. This is virtually unchanged from their survey from last month, which had Fisher up by a point.

IA-Gov: A new Des Moines Register poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad way out in front of his rivals for the GOP nomination. Branstad leads conservative underdog Bob Vander Plaats 57% to 29%. These findings are at odds with a few previous polls, which had shown the race tightening up.

SC-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) unscathed by the multiple allegations of extramarital affairs. Haley leads the pack for the GOP nomination with 43%, followed by 23% for Rep. Gresham Barrett, 16% for Attorney General Henry McMaster, and 12% for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer. Haley still has a strong favorable rating at 58-23, and GOP voters don't think the allegations are true by a 54-13 margin. At this point, a runoff seems likely between Haley and either Barrett or McMaster, who was just endorsed by Rudy Giuliani. But I'm not sure how much weight that endorsement has, given that Giuliani's a northeast moderate who finished sixth in the state's 2008 presidential primary.

AL-05: The NRCC appears to be warming up to Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R), who unseated party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R) in the GOP primary. They have officially anointed him a "Young Gun", which is their top recruitment status.

MN-06: Physician Maureen Reed (D) dropped out of the race to take on conservative firebrand Rep. Michele Bachmann (R), clearing the path for state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) to take the Democratic nomination. Reed offered a whole-hearted endorsement for Clark, citing that a "prolonged primary fight only assists Michele Bachmann" in getting reelected. So far, Clark has proved to be a fantastic fundraiser: she raised $513,000 in the first quarter and has $601,000 in cash-on-hand. That's very important because Bachmann, being the outspoken controversial conservative that she is, is one of the best fundraising incumbents in the country.

PA-06: The NRCC is playing some defense for once by enrolling Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in their "Patriot" program, which is designed to protect vulnerable Republican incumbents. Gerlach survived the 2008 Democratic surge, but he still appears to be vulnerable despite the national GOP advantage this time around. He only won the seat by four points in 2008 and Barack Obama carried the district by 17 points. Gerlach will face Iraq War veteran and physician Manan Trivedi (D) in the general election.

SC-04: PPP also polled the GOP primary in the 4th, where Rep. Bob Inglis (R)--who has a conservative voting record besides his TARP vote--is struggling to survive an attack from his right. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) leads Inglis 37% to 33%, and a runoff seems likely.

Daily Rundown: 6/4/10

IN-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows former Sen. Dan Coats (R) comfortably ahead of Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), 47% to 33%. This is similar to a poll released by them about a month ago, which had Coats up by 15 points. Meanwhile, Indiana Democrats are trying to tie Coats to the gulf coast oil leak, releasing a web video asking: "What do BP & Halliburton have in common? They both share responsibility for the worst environmental disaster in US history ... and they are both clients of Dan Coats' lobbying firm. ... In the Senate, he'd answer to them ... not you."

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) retaking the lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D), 45% to 38%. A Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago showed Sestak up four points, which the pollster attributed to a post-primary bump.

NY-Gov: Former Rep. Rick Lazio won the endorsement of the state Republican Party this week to take on heavy favorite Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) in the general election. State GOP chairman Ed Cox's pick for the nomination was Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, who he got to switch parties to run for governor as a Republican. Lazio's nomination was a huge embarrassment to Cox, who's leadership is now coming under fire. There has even been talk of replacing him as the chairmen after he failed to find a good candidate to put up against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), oversaw two crushing special election defeats, and failed to avoid House GOP primary fights.

SC-Gov: Gubernatorial candidate state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) has said that she would resign as governor if the allegations of her marital infidelity turn out to be true. Meanwhile, she's getting some last-minute support from Sarah Palin who recorded a robo-call on her behalf. And Haley, who is Indian-American, also become the target of some racial slurs from state Sen. Jake Knotts, who supports Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's campaign. Said Knotts: "We already got one raghead in the White House, we don’t need a raghead in the governor’s mansion." Yikes.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador, who defeated NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward in the May 25 primary, needs some help. His campaign is basically broke and has lost much of its staff, and his still not won over the full-fledged support of the NRCC. Mr. Labrador's going to Washington to try to mend some fences with (and get some money from) the NRCC, but don't expect him to be added to their "Young Guns" recruitment program.

NC-08: Former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) is attacking his runoff rival, businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R), with a new radio ad accusing his opponent of living a "life of drugs, crime and time served in prison." It later adds, "The troubles of the country will only be made worse by a man with such a troubled past." With all of these accusations appearing to be true, I'd peg Johnson as the heavy favorite to win the June 22 runoff.

OH-18: Agriculture Commissioner Fred Dailey conceded the GOP nomination to state Sen. Bob Gibbs today. Dailey ran against Rep. Zack Space (D) in 2008, and lost to Gibbs in last month's primary by 156 votes--triggering an automatic recount. Space is widely considered to be vulnerable this cycle, and has been placed on the DCCC's Frontline defense program. I currently rate the race as: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 6/3/10

CA-Sen: Well, that was quick. Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) will go back up on the air Friday, running a commercial touting that he will be the GOP's best shot at taking down Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). He cites a recent LA Times poll showing him up 7 points over Boxer, while Carly Fiorina loses by 6 points. Not a bad closing sell, but it may not be enough to overcome Fiorina's recent surge in the polls and massive financial advantage.

CO-Sen: It looks like the Obama administration tried to meddle in the Colorado Democratic Senate primary too. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs released a statement this morning admitting that deputy chief of staff Jim Messina called former state House Speak Andrew Romanoff to see if he was still interested in a job he applied for during the presidential transition (at USAID) to avoid a primary with Sen. Michael Bennet (D), who has the backing of the administration. Romanoff released a statement saying that no job was formally offered, but claimed that they inquired about his interest in two more administration jobs.

Now, this may all be inside baseball and may have no impact on voters, but it is still very embarrassing for the Obama administration. This follows a similar ploy in Pennsylvania to get Rep. Joe Sestak (D) to drop his primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (D), in which the administration used Bill Clinton as a go-between for an offer of an unpaid, informal advisory position. Maybe this is a sign that the president should stop meddling in its party's primaries?

CT-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 23 points, 56% to 33%. This is a huge change from their previous poll that had Blumenthal up 3, which was taken in the midst of his misstatements on his service.

NV-Sen: A new Suffolk poll shows former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle taking the lead in the GOP primary to take on Sen. Harry Reid (D), confirming her late surge. Angle takes 33%, compared with 26% for real estate developer Danny Tarkanian and 25% for casino executive and former state GOP chair Sue Lowden, whose campaign has been dogged by a series of mini-scandals in recent weeks. Angle is considered to be the weakest general election candidate against Reid.

FL-Gov: Bud Chiles, the son of former Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, has announced that he will run for governor as an independent, a la Charlie Crist. This comes as bad news to Democrats, as Chiles will probably siphon votes away from state CFO Alex Sink (D), who already was facing an uphill battle against likely GOP nominee Attorney General Bill McCollum.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Terry Branstad's (R) prospects still look pretty good in the general election against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D). A PPP poll has him up 15 points over Culver, 52% to 37%. But Branstad still has to get through the Republican primary, which has become more competitive that expected. Evangelical leader James Dobson just threw his support behind Branstad's chief rival, businessman and activist Bob Vander Plaats (R). GOP voters will choose their nominee on Tuesday.

MI-Gov: A lot of polls today. This one, from EPIC-MRA, shows Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) leading the pack in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Hoekstra takes 30%, compared with 18% for Attorney General Mix Cox, 17% for businessman Rick Snyder (who is thought to be the strongest general election candidate), and 16% for Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. On the Democratic side it still looks pretty close, with state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) leading Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) 29% to 23%.

NV-Gov: That same Suffolk poll also tested the GOP gubernatorial primary, between former federal judge Brian Sandoval, incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons, and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montadon. The poll finds Sandoval with a 22-point lead over Gibbons, 47% to 25%. Montadon comes away with 10%. The primary is on Tuesday.

SC-Gov: Oy vey. Another man has come forward and claimed that he had an "inappropriate sexual encounter" with gubernatorial hopeful state Rep. Nikki Haley (R). Instead of a blogger this time, it's a campaign aide to one of Haley's rivals, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R). Haley has once again denied the allegations and accused Bauer of being behind this 11th hour attack. Whether these claims actually have merit or are just despicable campaign tactics, the story might start to stick with South Carolina GOP voters. We'll see if it affects their votes come Tuesday--but somehow I think it won't.

HI-01: Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who is running for governor, is the latest Hawaii Democrat to endorse state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) in the Democratic primary for his old seat. Since former Rep. Ed Case (D) decided not to make a run for the nomination, Hanabusa has turned into the presumptive nominee to take on Rep. Charles Djou (R) in November.

Daily Rundown: 5/27/10

AR-Sen: A new Research 2000 poll of the June 8 primary run-off finds Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) leading Sen. Blanche Lincoln 47% to 44%, within the margin of error. Lincoln, after running as a centrist in the primary, is now darting to the left for the run-off claiming that she is an Obama Democrat (whatever that means). Both candidates trail GOP nominee Rep. John Boozman in the general election.

CT-Sen: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) says he's open to supporting Republican nominee Linda McMahon (R) in the general election. His support for McMahon could further infuriate the Connecticut Democratic Party, which already has a sour relationship with the former Democrat.

NV-Sen: One-time Republican front-runner Sue Lowden dodged a question on whether she thought the 1964 Civil Rights Act should apply to private businesses. This question proved be a huge embarrassment for Kentucky senate candidate Rand Paul (R) last week. Lowden later put out a statement clarifying, "I want voters to know that I strongly support all aspects of the Civil Rights Act, just as I strongly believe it applies to my private business and all others." Republicans need to be careful not to piss off too many minorities (see: Arizona immigration law), or they might just get enthusiastic about voting for Democrats in what should be a favorable year for them.

CA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) leading both Republican hopefuls in the general election. Brown leads Meg Whitman (R) 48% to 36% and Steve Poizner 48% to 32%. This can probably be attributed to the nasty tone that the GOP primary has taken, driving up the negatives of both Whitman and Poizner.

NM-Gov: Two polls show Don Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez leading the pack for the GOP nomination. A New Mexico Politics poll has her up 41-30 over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, and a Survey USA poll has her up 43-33. The polls also show that she would be the strongest general election candidate against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D).

SC-Gov: The controversy over the alleged affair between blogger Will Folks and Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley continues to dominate coverage of the the GOP primary. Folks says he does not know when the rest of the details of the alleged "inappropriate physical relationship" will surface. Haley has categorically denied the relationship, whose existence has yet to be proven. It'll be interesting to see if this affects Haley's status as the front-runner in the primary. Meanwhile, Dick Cheney just endorsed one of her rivals, Rep. Gresham Barrett.

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), who is competing in a June 8 run-off against the more conservative former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), was endorsed by two of his former rivals. Causey, the chief of staff of retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D), finished second to Woolridge in the May 18 primary, but this could be the necessary boost to put him over the top.

GA-12: House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is paying a campaign visit to Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) to talk about the merits of the landmark health care legislation passed earlier this year. The only problem is Barrow didn't vote for the bill. Is this just a massive miscommunication between the two or is Clyburn trying to weaken the conservative Barrow's chance of winning the Democratic primary against the more liberal former state Sen. Regina Thomas?

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is losing support from the same local tea party groups that helped him with his fist-place finish in the May 4 primary. After allegations of serious past criminal activity, drug use, and declaring himself to be a prophet (among other ridiculous things), these tea party groups are throwing their support to former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) in the June 22 run-off.