DE-Sen: Tea Party Express Backs O'Donnell

I, like much of the political punditry, have assumed that Rep. Mike Castle (R) would be the Republican Senate nominee in Delaware for some time now. His moderate background and extensive history as a state-level elected official would make him a strong favorite over likely Democratic nominee Chris Coons (D).

However, his only somewhat serious primary competitor, 2008 Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R), has started to make some noise the last couple of weeks.

First, she was endorsed by the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List (the bizarro EMILY's List). And now she's being endorsed by the Tea Party Express, who have helped catapult conservative firebrands like Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, and Mike Lee to victories in GOP primaries across the country.

The group takes issue with Castle's moderate views (i.e., being pro-choice, his support for TARP, cap-and-trade, and Wall Street reform)--exactly the views that make him such an appealing general candidate in such a blue state like Delaware. But the Tea Party Express doesn't really seem to care about that, seeming to favor principle over pragmatism yet again.

Said a Tea Party Express spokesperson: "We long ago announced our intention to hold Mike Castle accountable for his failed record in Congress, and now we have an excellent shot to make sure he is defeated by a solid conservative candidate."

Politico also reports that Concerned Women for America PAC will endorse O'Donnell in the coming weeks.

Now, I don't buy into the hype that just because these groups support her that she suddenly has all this momentum. The conservative grassroots movement in Delaware looks to me to be significantly smaller than in states like Kentucky, Nevada, and Utah.

I think the real reason that the Tea Party Express (and other such groups) are getting involved in a non-race like this is that they are just looking for ways to stay viable as the number of competitive GOP primary elections wanes as we move closer to November. And this was just another chance for them to start some drama and get some headlines.

I'd say--at the most--this may give O'Donnell an opening to get her name out there, but I still don't think she stands a chance against Castle six weeks out from the primary. I bet Chris Coons (D) really hopes I'm wrong, as he would probably trounce O'Donnell in the general election.

Daily Rundown: 7/23/10

AR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 25 points, 60% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

DE-Sen: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will hold a fundraiser for Rep. Mike Castle (R) on August 17. Bloomberg has supported a wide array of candidates across the country--from both parties--including Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Current rating:

Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will endorse Marco Rubio (R) this weekend in a high-profile boost for the Republican's campaign, which has gotten a bit sleep as of late. This must come as a blow to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign, which has been aggressively courting the business community's support throughout the campaign. There's one little hitch though: Rubio, a Cuban American, opposes the Chamber of Commerce's push to get rid of the Cuba embargo. Current rating: Toss-Up.

IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune may have discovered yet another embarrassing embellishment from Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) past. Since he began running for public office over a decade ago, Kirk often told the story of how he was rescued by the Coast Guard when he nearly drowned at age 16. But the Tribune has found that "there are inconsistencies in Kirk's statements that suggests part of his real-life drama have been embellished." This must be terrible news for the Kirk campaign, which had just seemed to get the media and public's attention turned away from his past. In other news, Kirk released a statement this morning that he supports the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagen. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A new Braun Research poll finds Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 3 points, 41% to 38%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

LA-Sen: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trailing Sen. David Vitter (R) by just one point, 44% to 43%. This result seems very optimistic, as most recent public polling shows Vitter with a 10-20 point lead. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-Sen: It looks like internal polling season is in full swing. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is out with one showing her leading Sen. Richard Burr (R) by two points, 37% to 35%. Our public polling average has Burr up by 10 points over Marshall. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Joe Manchin (D) crushing businessman John Raese (R) in a hypothetical general election match-up, 51% to 36%. While Raese is the most high-profile Republican to enter the race thus far, he will not have the field to himself. Nine other Republicans have already filed to run in the GOP primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) leading state Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) by 19 points, 56% to 37%. Also, Goddard called Brewer a "one-trick pony" today, saying that her only issue is illegal immigration. "The entire [platform] that she has run on is signing SB 1070," said Goddard. "When you ask what else has Governor Brewer done for you, I don't think there is an answer." Current rating: Likely Republican.

Daily Rundown: 7/16/10

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 17 points, 54% to 37%. And if former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) jumps back into the race like he has been hinting he will do, he still faces an uphill climb. McMahon leads him 52% to 25% in the GOP primary, with Peter Schiff (R)--who has started to gain support among local Tea Party activists--at 13%. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

DE-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Mike Castle (R) with a comfortable 11-point lead over Chris Coons (D), 47% to 36%. Their poll from late April had Castle up by 23 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) raised a record-setting $4.4 million last quarter, but that haul doesn't seem so might now that it came to light that his campaign spent $4 million over the same period. What makes matters worse is that he doesn't have a lot to show for it, seeing as Gov. Charlie Crist (I) is beating him in most public polling and now is sitting on more cash on hand. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds some great news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). He leads Sharron Angle (R) by seven points, 44% to 37%, a four-point up-tick for Reid from their last poll in May. It seems that his campaign's strategy of making this race about Angle since she won the GOP primary has been working so far. But there's some good news for Angle today: she outraised Reid $2.6 million to $2.4 million in the second quarter (even though Reid has much more in cash on hand). Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Dino Rossi (R) leading Sen. Patty Murray (D) for the first time since he entered the race. Their poll from last month found the race tied, whereas most other polls have shown Murray with a small lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) appointed his former chief counsel, Carte Goodwin (D), to be a seatwarmer until Manchin runs for the seat himself in November. Goodwin will be appointed on Tuesday and an official campaign announcement from Manchin should come soon after that. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new poll from the University of Wisconsin finds Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading businessman Ron Johnson (R) 33% to 28%, but about 40% of voters are still undecided, meaning this race is up for grabs at this point. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leading both potential Republican candidates within the margin of error. He leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) 45% to 43% and businessman Dan Maes (R) 46% to 43%. But the poll was taken before the full aftermath of McInnis multiple counts of plagiarism became public. A newer Survey USA poll (post-plagiarism) finds that 64% of state Republicans prefer someone other than McInnis as their gubernatorial nominee. Current rating: Toss-Up.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen tested the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Georgia and found former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 59% to 16%. Most polls have found that Barnes has enough support to avoid a runoff, while the Republicans are certain to duke it out in a runoff for a few more weeks.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Don Onorato (D) by 10 points, 48% to 38%--virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

Daily Rundown: 6/8/10

CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is not waiting for Carly Fiorina (R) to officially win the Senate GOP primary tonight. Acknowledging Fiorina's fundraising prowess, Boxer told her supporters she had a goal of raising $200,000 by the time polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific time tonight.

DE-Sen: Vice President Joe Biden will come back to his home state to campaign for New Castle County executive Chris Coons (D) later this month. Biden had ignored the race since his son, Beau, had decided not to run for the seat. Coons faces a major uphill battle against Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate former governor who has high favorable ratings.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) with decent-sized leads over his two possible challengers. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 7 points and leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham by 10 points. Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll shows Burr with even larger leads, topping Marshall by 14 points and Cunningham by 12. The Democratic nominee will be decided by a June 22 runoff election.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland 47% to 42%. Their poll from last month had Kasich leading by only one point.

PA-Gov: Here's yet another poll from Rasmussen. This one finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) way ahead of Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D), 49% to 33%.

SC-Gov: For once, Nikki Haley is getting a respite from attacks. Attorney General Henry McMaster (R) is going after Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in a new ad, calling him "too weak to be governor" and attacking him for his vote in favor of TARP. Polls have shown McMaster and Barrett to be deadlocked for second place, and whoever finishes in second will most likely join Haley in a runoff.

FL-24: Mike Huckabee endorsed former Winter Park County Commissioner Karen Diebel (R) yesterday to take on freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). Diebel has already been endorsed by former Rep. Tom Tancredo and Rep. Brian Bilbray. She will face off against steakhouse chain owner Craig Miller (R) in the GOP primary, who can self-fund his campaign.

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is suing his GOP runoff rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R), "with a defamation suit again alleging that Johnson has lodged a series of false attacks against him." Johnson came out with an ad last week accusing D'Annunzio of a “life of drugs, crime and time served in prison” and refusing to pay child support, all of which was confirmed by an article from the Charlotte Observer. The runoff is on June 22.

VA-05: Here's some last-minute shenanigans. Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), viewed as the underdog going into today's primary, released an 11th hour robo-call with former Rep. Virgil Goode (R) saying "Jim McKelvey wouldn't care if he went to Washington and made a bunch of people mad." State Sen. Robert Hurt (R), the establishment favorite in the race, accused the message of being misleading, as Goode hadn't endorsed McKelvey.