Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/28/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) came out and officially said it at a debate last night: "I am running for the United State Senate." This comes after weeks of playing coy and calling his campaign ads "public service announcements"--a reminder that his name was still on the ballot. Simmons suspended his campaign after the state GOP endorsed Linda McMahon (R). Both Simmons and investor Peter Schiff (R) remain huge underdogs with less than two weeks before the primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

IL-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by two points, 43% to 41%--within the poll's margin of error. This is virtually unchanged from the results of a poll they released of this race earlier this month. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: Rasmussen is also out with a new poll in this closely watched (and over-dramatized) race. They find Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) leading Sharron Angle (R) by two points, 45% to 43%. Rasmussen's previous poll of the race, from June, found Angle up by three points. It seems like Reid' barrage of negative campaign ads to define Angle as too outside the mainstream may have worked to drive up Angle's negatives to levels comparable to his. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with part two of their poll, this time with Republican primary numbers. It seems that while Sarah Palin's endorsement hurt Kelly Ayotte (R) among moderates--which could be a problem for her in the general election--it hasn't had any negative effect on Republican voters. Ayotte has the support of 47% of likely GOP voters while her closest competitor, Bill Binnie (R), is way behind with 14%. Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Jim Bender (R) are stuck in single digits. Current rating: Lean Republican.

CA-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 46% to 40%. This must come as good news to the Brown campaign, as the last two public polls of the race have shown Whitman, albeit with small single digit margins. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Gov: PPP also put a GOP gubernatorial primary poll into the field, and found former Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen (R) leading the pack with 26%. Businessman Jack Kimball (R) trails with 15% and Karen Testerman (R) collects only 5%. But there's still a whole lot of undecided voters, as this race has taken a backseat to the more competitive and interesting Senate Republican primary.

OK-Gov: As expected, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) easily disposed of state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) in yesterday's GOP gubernatorial primary, 55% to 39%, and avoided a runoff. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) edged out state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) by less than one percentage point. The Sooner poll released this weekend wasn't even close. Now, regardless of who wins in the general election, Oklahoma will have its first female governor.

TN-Gov: Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R), who's been lagging in the polls, is under fire for calling Islam a "cult" instead of a religion. He said he's "all about freedom of religion" but added "but you cross the line when they start trying to bring Sharia law into the United States." Yikes.

OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren (D) easily fought off a health care-themed primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Wilson (D), crushing him 76% to 24%.

OK-05: The Republican primary to replace Rep. Mary Fallin (R) in Congress is headed to a runoff, as expected, featuring Christian camp director James Lankford (R) and former state Rep. Ken Calvey (R). This is basically the general election, as the winner of this runoff will go on cruise in November in this dark red district.

Daily Rundown: 7/27/10

CA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%. According to the poll, independents have dashed away from Fiorina back toward Boxer, which essentially what puts Boxer in the lead. Most other public polls have found a much closer race, and some have even given Fiorina the lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates with small leads over both Democrats. Ken Buck (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D) by six points. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads Bennet by nine, and bests Romanoff by four. Meanwhile, Romanoff is selling his house and loaning his campaign $325,000 to go "all-in" in his insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. Courageous move or act of desperation? I'm betting on the latter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with a new poll that finds that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte (R) may have backfired. She has her smallest lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to date, besting him by just three points, 45% to 42%. While shoring up her Republican base, she seems to have lost moderates in the process--seemingly in part because of Palin' endorsement. In April, Hodes led Ayotte by just 8 points among moderates, and now he's up by 21 points--and her favorability among that group has plummeted. Meanwhile, self-funding businessman Bill Binnie (R) leads Hodes by six points, Hodes leads Jim Bender (R) by one point and Ovide Lamontagne (R) by 5. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by seven points, 44% to 37%, with 15% undecided. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you release an internal poll showing you losing to a virtual unknown candidate. State Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) released an internal poll showing him trailing Rick Scott (R) by six points, 37% to 31%. Most public polling shows Scott with a much larger lead.

MD-Gov: A new Gonzales Research poll finds sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%--within the poll's margin of error. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (R) by three points, 47% to 44%--virtually unchanged from their June poll of the race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NM-01: A new Survey USA poll finds businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) by six points, 51% to 45%. But there's a red flag here, as it seems pretty unlikely that only 4% of voters are undecided this far out from the election. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 6/11/10

CA-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the California Senate race, from Rasmussen, shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five-point lead over former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, 48% to 43%. In other news, Fiorina was caught on open-mic Thursday criticizing Meg Whitman's decision to go on Sean Hannity and making fun of Boxer's hair.

FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.

NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.

NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.

WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.

CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.

ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.

MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.

NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).

NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.

VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."

The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.