Showing posts with label PA-Sen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PA-Sen. Show all posts

Friday, July 30, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/30/10

FL-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) narrowly leading Marco Rubio (R) and blowing out both Democratic candidates. When Jeff Green (D) is the Democratic nominee, Crist leads 37-32-17. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the nomination then Crist leads 39-33-13. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) ahead by just one point over challenger Sharron Angle (R), 43% to 42%. Mason-Dixon's poll from two weeks ago had Reid up by seven points, but this new result seems more plausible. Still, that Reid is even leading at all continues to stun me, seeing as he was left for dead just two months ago. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Most other public polls have found a much closer race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Rasmussen also put a poll out in Washington state, and found Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by two points, 49% to 47%. Two weeks ago, they found Rossi (R) to be ahead by three points. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

FL-Gov: That same Quinnipiac poll tested the Florida governor's race and found very close races--regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. If Rick Scott (R) is the GOP nominee, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 29-27-14. If state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) wins the GOP's nod, he leads Sink and Chiles 27-26-14. Also: President Obama will hold a fundraiser for Sink on August 18.

MI-Gov: The second half of the EPIC-MRA poll came out today, this time testing the waters for the gubernatorial GOP nomination. They found moderate former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R) narrowly leading the pack with 26%, followed by state Attorney General Mike Cox (R) with 24% and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with 23%. Different polls show each one of these three in the lead, but the consensus is that this race will be extremely close. The primary is this Tuesday.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid by 10 points, 50% to 40%--down from a 21-point lead from earlier this month. This change is pretty inexplicable, with the only major development being that Sandoval said he wouldn't be worried about his children getting racially profiled in Arizona because they "don't look Hispanic." But that gaffe hardly explains an 11-point drop off over a two-week period. Current rating: Likely Republican.

WI-Gov: With Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) as the GOP nominee, Rasmussen finds that he leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) by seven points, 50% to 43%. If former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) wins the Republican nomination, he trails Barrett by one point.

LA-02: The DCCC has announced that it will officially support state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) in the Democratic primary to take on endangered freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R). The DCCC is placing Richmond, who came in third place in the 2008 Democratic primary, in its "Red to Blue" program--giving him a fundraising and infrastructure boost going into the August 28 primary. He still faces state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), businessman Gary Johnson (D), and Eugene Green (D)--a top aid to former Rep. Bill Jefferson (D), whose scandals allowed Cao to steal this dark blue seat in 2008.

NH-01: That UNH/Granite State poll that came out yesterday also tested both of the state's House contests. In the 1st district, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) leads former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) 44% to 39%, bests former RNC committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) 45% to 36%, and beats businessman Rick Ashooh (R) 43% to 35%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-02: In the open seated second district, things look a bit bleaker for the Democrats. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) leads Katrina Swett (D) 47% to 30% and tops Ann McLane Kuster (D) 47% to 29%. Conservative talk show host and 2008 GOP nominee Jennifer Horn (R) leads Swett 35% to 31% and edges Kuster 34% to 32%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OK-05: State Rep. Mike Thompson (R), who finished third in Tuesday's primary, is endorsing Christian youth camp director James Lankford (R) in the August 24 GOP runoff. In doing so, he's passing over former state Rep. Kevin Calvey (R), who surprisingly finished behind Lankford in the Republican primary despite support from groups like the Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, and Concerned Women for America.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Daily Rundown: 7/1/10

AZ-Sen: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is trying to get back on the offensive against Sen. John McCain (R) by releasing a four-minute video pointing out his ties to convicted Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein. Rothstein used to be a fundraiser for the senator, but the McCain campaign responded by saying: "John McCain couldn't pick him out of a lineup." The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Safe Republican.

FL-Sen
: The St. Petersburg Times reports that a judge has scheduled an October trial for Jim Greer, the former state GOP chairman accused of corruption who was hand-picked by Gov. Charlie Crist (I). The trial starts two weeks before election day and could slow any momentum Crist has down the home stretch. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A month after losing a close primary to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) is saying he won't endorse either candidate in the general election. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%, virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. The Election Frontier's polling average finds Toomey leading Sestak by one point, and we currently rate this race a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Survey USA poll confirms that it's going to be Sen. Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in November. Instead of party primaries, Washington state has an open "jungle" primary in which all candidates of all parties compete in the same primary and the top two finishers advance. In the survey, Murray gets 37% and Rossi gets 33%--way ahead of all the other candidates. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) extending her lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. According the poll, Brewer leads Goddard by 18 points, 53% to 35%, a five-point improvement from their poll from last month. If this election continues to be a referendum on the Arizona immigration law, then Brewer should win pretty easily.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has picked a running mate in his comeback bid: former Secretary of State Mary Kane (R). The motive behind the pick seems to be that Ehrlich is looking to shore up his support in Montgomery County, where Kane lives. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is running with his lieutenant governor, Anthony Brown (D).

OH-Gov: It looks like former Rep. John Kasich (R) is making his first move to the center in the general election campaign. He now says he supports "a federal extension of unemployment benefits."

OR-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by one point, 41% to 40%. Even though Magellan is GOP pollster, these results seem pretty much in line with what other recent public polls have found.

WY-Gov: Not that this is actually important, but actor Wilford Brimley has decided to support state Auditor Rita Meyer (R) in the crowded GOP primary. But hey, what other news is coming out of Wyoming anyway, right?

RGA: The Republican Governor's Association hauled in just under $19 million in contributions in the second quarter and has $40 million in the bank. Under the leadership of Mississippi Gov. (and 2012 hopeful?) Haley Barbour, the RGA seems to be doing a lot better financially than their committee counterparts--the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) is facing allegations that "as a police sergeant nearly 20 years ago, he mishandled the investigation of a subordinate officer who had been accused of strip-searching two teenage girls." Perry, who has been endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Mitt Romney, faces a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Joe Malone (R), who is making hay of the issue.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Daily Rundown: 6/22/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) leading former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)--who was just caught on video telling people about how they could obtain free money from the government in an infomercial--47% to 36% in the GOP Senate primary. But this poll should still be a red flag for the McCain campaign, as he's still under the all-important 50% watermark. Rasmussen's poll from last month had McCain leading by a similar margin.

IL-Sen: Businessman Mike Niecestro, a disgruntled Republican who was going to pour $1 million into an independent Senate campaign, ended his bid before it even started after failing to come up with enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. He's backing Constitution Party candidate Randy Stufflebeam, who will siphon off votes on Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) right flank.

PA-Sen: A new PPP poll shows Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) tied at 41% in Pennsylvania's Senate contest. The poll finds Sestak has consolidated the Democratic base after his post-primary bounce has wore off.

GA-Gov: A new Survey USA poll took a look at the GOP and Democratic primaries in Georgia's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) leads the pack with 34%, followed by former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) with 18%, while Rep. Nathan Deal (R) trails with 17%. A runoff looks likely between Oxendine and either Handel or Deal. In the Democratic primary, former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) looks poised to clinch the nomination outright. He crushes Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 63% to 13%, with no other candidates reaching double-digits.

IL-Gov: Scott Lee Cohen (D), a pawnshop owner who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor only to withdraw later after getting arrested for pulling a knife on his prostitute girlfriend, will now run for governor as an independent. He'll make no real impact on the race, but he's sure to make a lot of noise and draw a lot of (probably negative) attention down the stretch.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Dudley up by one point, and a recent Survey USA poll found him leading by 7.

TX-Gov: PPP's out with a new poll in Texas, where they find incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) and former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) tied at 43%. Said pollster Tom Jensen: "Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger." Key finding: independents now support White by a 42-36 margin.

KS-03: State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is out with a new web ad showing him with his wife and a few young children. The only problem? Yoder doesn't have any kids. Whoops.

MS-01: As expected, the National Rifle Association endorsed Rep. Travis Childers (D). Childers's GOP rival, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R), tried to preempt the announcement by saying that the NRA had supported him in the past and that they tend to support incumbents that are supportive of their agenda over challengers.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Daily Rundown: 6/4/10

IN-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows former Sen. Dan Coats (R) comfortably ahead of Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), 47% to 33%. This is similar to a poll released by them about a month ago, which had Coats up by 15 points. Meanwhile, Indiana Democrats are trying to tie Coats to the gulf coast oil leak, releasing a web video asking: "What do BP & Halliburton have in common? They both share responsibility for the worst environmental disaster in US history ... and they are both clients of Dan Coats' lobbying firm. ... In the Senate, he'd answer to them ... not you."

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) retaking the lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D), 45% to 38%. A Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago showed Sestak up four points, which the pollster attributed to a post-primary bump.

NY-Gov
: Former Rep. Rick Lazio won the endorsement of the state Republican Party this week to take on heavy favorite Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) in the general election. State GOP chairman Ed Cox's pick for the nomination was Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, who he got to switch parties to run for governor as a Republican. Lazio's nomination was a huge embarrassment to Cox, who's leadership is now coming under fire. There has even been talk of replacing him as the chairmen after he failed to find a good candidate to put up against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), oversaw two crushing special election defeats, and failed to avoid House GOP primary fights.

SC-Gov: Gubernatorial candidate state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) has said that she would resign as governor if the allegations of her marital infidelity turn out to be true. Meanwhile, she's getting some last-minute support from Sarah Palin who recorded a robo-call on her behalf. And Haley, who is Indian-American, also become the target of some racial slurs from state Sen. Jake Knotts, who supports Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's campaign. Said Knotts: "We already got one raghead in the White House, we don’t need a raghead in the governor’s mansion." Yikes.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador, who defeated NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward in the May 25 primary, needs some help. His campaign is basically broke and has lost much of its staff, and his still not won over the full-fledged support of the NRCC. Mr. Labrador's going to Washington to try to mend some fences with (and get some money from) the NRCC, but don't expect him to be added to their "Young Guns" recruitment program.

NC-08: Former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) is attacking his runoff rival, businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R), with a new radio ad accusing his opponent of living a "life of drugs, crime and time served in prison." It later adds, "The troubles of the country will only be made worse by a man with such a troubled past." With all of these accusations appearing to be true, I'd peg Johnson as the heavy favorite to win the June 22 runoff.

OH-18: Agriculture Commissioner Fred Dailey conceded the GOP nomination to state Sen. Bob Gibbs today. Dailey ran against Rep. Zack Space (D) in 2008, and lost to Gibbs in last month's primary by 156 votes--triggering an automatic recount. Space is widely considered to be vulnerable this cycle, and has been placed on the DCCC's Frontline defense program. I currently rate the race as: Lean Democrat.

Friday, May 28, 2010

Daily Rundown: 5/28/10

AR-Sen: While Bill Clinton stumps for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) today in Arkansas, the AFL-CIO is planning a three-day $300,000 ad-buy on behalf of her runoff opponent, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). Early voting begins on Tuesday, after the holiday weekend.

CT-Sen
: Another poll, this time from Research 2000, confirms that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) has gotten past his misstatements on his service relatively unscathed. He leads Linda McMahon (R) by 19 points, 52% to 33%.

PA-Sen: Research 2000 also put out a poll in Pennsylvania which found Rep. Joe Sestak (D) leader former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 43% to 40%. This is an 8-point bump for Sestak from their previous poll from earlier this month.

Meanwhile, the White House is seeking to quell the allegations that they offered Sestak a job so he would drop out of the Senate race. They said the job was an unpaid "advisory position" offered informally by Bill Clinton. Don't expect this to be the end of the story.

CA-Gov: State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), the underdog in the GOP gubernatorial primary, is attacking frontrunner Meg Whitman (R) as weak on immigration. Whitman claimed that she wasn't playing hot-button politics, claiming "You haven't seen an ad from me with the border fence...That has been Steve's campaign." Well, it turns out she did have an ad with the border fence. Whoops.

Whitman is walking a fine line on the highly controversial illegal immigration as she tries not to dart right to the primary only to find her support among Latinos dried up. The Latino vote is essential to any statewide California official, as they make up more than 35% of the state's population.

CT-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former senate candidate Ned Lamont (D) leading Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) 41-24 in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, former ambassador Tom Foley (R) leads Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele (R) 37-11.

HI-Gov: Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) at long last announced his candidacy for governor today. He will take on Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) in the September 18 primary.

NY-13: The Staten Island GOP voted to nominate attorney Michael Allegretti (R) to face off against freshman Rep. Mike McMahon (D) in November. Former FBI Agent Michael Grimm (R), who has the backing of the New York Conservative Party and is viewed as the strongest general election candidate, will still run in the primary. Meanwhile, McMahon picked up the endorsement of the Staten Island Conservative Party as he awaits the winner of a potentially damaging Republican primary.

The local GOP's first choice for the nomination was former Rep. Vito Fossella (R), who was caught driving drunk on the way to his second family's house in Virginia in the most embarrassing scandal of 2008. Fossella has not ruled out running in the furu

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

In Case You Missed It...

Since primary season started almost four months ago, I thought I'd catch everyone up on some of the highlights of what has happened so far.

Illinois (February 2): Illinois kicked off the primary season with a closely contested Senate Democratic primary, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging out former Inspector General David Hoffman (D), despite ethical charges about Giannoulias's time in office. He will face off against Rep. Mark Kirk (R), a moderate, in the fall. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) also squeaked out a primary win and will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the general election.

Texas (March 2): Two-term Gov. Rick Perry (R) handily defeated sitting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in the Republican primary, avoiding a run-off election. Polls have shown him with low double-digit leads over the Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

Indiana (May 4): With the unexpected retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the winter, Democrats selected Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as their nominee to replace him. Former Sen. Dan Coats (R), despite a checkered past, emerged as the Republican nominee. Early polls show Coats ahead by a comfortable margin.

North Carolina (May 4): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) are headed to a run-off election on June 22, given that neither of them reached the 40% threshold would have guaranteed them the nomination. Third place finisher Kenneth Lewis endorsed Marshall. The winner will face the unpopular Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November.

Ohio (May 4): In the Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general. No surprises in the governor's race, as sitting Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will take on former Rep. John Kasich (R), which is sure to be one of the most negative and nasty races of the cycle.

West Virginia (May 11): In a clear demonstration of the anti-incumbent mood that will surely carry on through November, sitting Rep. Allan Mollohan (D) was ousted by the much more conservative state Sen. Mike Oliviero (D). Oliverio will face former state Rep. David McKinley (R) in the fall. Expect a lot more sitting congressman to be facing significant challenges in their own party's primaries.

Arkansas (May 18): Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was forced into a run-off (June 8) by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who has been running to Lincoln's left. In response, Lincoln has been touting herself as an Obama-Democrat ever since. Bill Clinton's coming down to stump for her, but Halter has the backing of the SEIU and other unions, and his supporters seem more likely to show up to the polls. The winner will be the underdog against Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.

Kentucky (May 18): This race, more than any other so far, had the national media all up in a tizzy last week. Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated establishment candidate Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) in a landslide. The national media took this as a huge surprise and made it a story about "insurgent beats establishment," but if they looked at the polls and the grassroots efforts on the ground, they would have seen it coming, as Paul ran a great campaign (with the help of the Tea Party). However, since winning the nomination, Paul has made several quick gaffes, including saying that he wouldn't have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act and that President Obama was being "unpatriotic" for criticizing BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He will take on Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--who won a close primary--in the general.

Pennsylvania (May 18): Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party in 2009 for fear of losing the GOP's nomination, lost the Democratic party's nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak (D). There have been allegations that the Obama administration--who was more than grateful for Specter's party switch--had previously offered Sestak the job of Navy Secretary if he backed down from the primary, which would be a federal crime. Sestak has stayed mum on the matter, and is looking forward to November, where he will face conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, the former head of the Club for Growth. In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is heavily favored against Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato (D).

Hawaii (May 22): When's the last time you heard of a competitive race in the Rainbow State? Well, the stubbornness of the two Democrats running in the special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) House seat made it possible. Neither former Rep. Ed Case (D) nor state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) backed down from the race, splitting the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win the seat. Both Case and Hanabusa are running in the September 18 primary, and it's clear there's still bad blood between them.