AL: Bentley Wins, Roby & Sewell Advance

State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) defeated former college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) 56% to 44% in last night's GOP gubernatorial runoff.

Byrne was clearly the choice of the Alabama GOP establishment--he was endorsed by Republicans such as Gov. Bob Riley, Sen. Jeff Sessions, Rep. Jo Bonner, Rep. Spencer Bachus, and Rep. Mike D. Rogers--and was seen as a more viable general election candidate against state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D).

But Byrne was tainted by a very negative primary campaign against 3rd-place finisher Tim James (R), and Bentley pledged right off the bat to not run any negative ads.

While Bentley ran a strong, clean campaign, in the end it may have the been the influential Alabama Education Association that pushed him over the top. They did his dirty work for him by spending millions of dollars on ads attacking Byrne, who is on bad terms with the union from his tenure as college chancellor.

In the 2nd district GOP runoff, GOP insiders got at least one candidate they wanted. Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R)--a member of the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program--easily defeated bar owner Rick Barber (R) 60% to 40%.

Barber ran an uneven runoff campaign that relied heavily on support from local tea party groups and a few viral YouTube campaign videos featuring the founding fathers.

Roby will now face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D)--one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus--in the general election. Roby may have a unique problem of needing to get to the right of her Democratic opponent. For example, as Montgomery mayor, Bright took a more hard-line conservative position on illegal immigration than Roby.

All in all, this is a seat that Republicans need to win back (it has a massive R+16 tilt) if they want to win back the House.

In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) defeated Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) 55% to 45% in the Democratic House runoff. Sewell benefited from significant financial support from women's groups like EMILY's List and the National Organization for Women. Because this is such a heavily Democratic district, it is almost certain that Sewell will win the general election and become the state's first black congresswoman.

Party-Switching Griffith Rejected by Voters

Rep. Parker Griffith, a Democrat-turned-Republican, was beat soundly by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks in the GOP primary in Alabama's 5th congressional district last night.

While Griffith's party switch was welcomed by Washington Republicans, Alabamans were clearly more skeptical of his motives. And even though Griffith spent more than $50 per vote, the voters' mistrust proved to be too much.

Brooks narrowly avoided a runoff, beating Griffith 51% to 33%. Brooks will be the favorite heading into the general election where he will face off against political consultant Steve Raby (D).

Griffith became the fourth incumbent congressman to lose his seat in a primary, following in the footsteps of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), and fellow party-switcher Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA).

Meanwhile in the 2nd district, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, the GOP establishment favorite, will face off against Tea Party-backed businessman Rick Barber in a July 13 runoff. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in November.

In the 7th district, attorney Terri Sewell (D) will face Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot (D) in a runoff as well.

And over in Mississippi, "Young Gun" GOP establishment favorite state Sen. Alan Nunnelee narrowly avoided a runoff in the 1st district, defeating former Europa Mayor Henry Ross and former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan (who was backed by Sarah Palin). Nunnelee will take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general, which I currently rate as a Tossup.

June 1 Primaries: What to Watch For

Voters in Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico will head to the polls today to select their party's nominees for a few important House and gubernatorial races. Here are the rundowns on the key races to keep your eye on:

AL-Gov: Both the Democratic and Republican races should be relatively close tonight. On the Democratic side, Rep. Artur Davis--a centrist who voted against health care reform and the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"--is the frontrunner with Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks running to his left. Polls show Sparks gaining on Davis due to his support from unions and improved fundraising, which has caused the Davis campaign to turn negative in the home stretch. If Davis wins the nomination, he could become Alabama's first black governor.

On the Republican side, it's a wide-open race. Former state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne seems to be narrowly leading the pack, followed by former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (famous for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the state courthouse), who has strong ties to the Tea Party movement. Also running are wealthy real estate developer Tim James, state Rep. Robert Bentley, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, and Bill Johnson. With so many candidates in such a wide-open race, a runoff appears likely (you need 50% of the vote to get the nomination). For more info on these races, check out this article.

AL-02: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) appears to be the favorite in the GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in the fall. Roby's entrance in the race was welcomed by the Washington GOP establishment and NRCC, who dubbed her a member of their "Young Gun" recruiting program. Tea Party favorite businessman Rick Barber is Roby's main competition, but the results of this crowded primary could also result in a runoff.

AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith, who switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party in December of last year in an act of political expediency, faces the voters for the first time as a Republican. He's in a competitive three-way GOP primary with Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (who has run a strong campaign) and businessman Les Phillip. Griffith has been backed by the GOP establishment and the state's congressional delegation and spent a lot of money in the race to keep his job. But Brooks has benefited from the endorsements of the local Republican leadership, Tea Party, and the Griffith's 2008 Republican opponent; and from the general distrust of the party-switching congressman. Griffith needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which is looking increasingly unlikely (if he even manages to be in the top two). Griffith is trying to fend off the national and local anti-incumbent wave and avoid an Arlen Specter-like fate.

AL-07: In the race to replace Davis, attorney Terri Sewell appears to have a slight lead over Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot and former state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. in the Democratic primary. A runoff also appears likely here, but it's not clear which two will qualify. This seat is solidly Democratic, so the winner of the primary will almost certainly win in November.

MS-01: The only race worth watching in Mississippi tonight is the GOP primary to take on Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the 1st district. Childers won the seat in a 2008 special election that dealt a huge blow to the NRCC, so they are intent on getting the seat back. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (the national GOP favorite and another "Young Gun") appears to be the frontrunner, but faces a strong challenger in former Europa Mayor Henry Ross, who's gained momentum in recent weeks due to his support from the local Tea Party. Also running--but losing steam--is former Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan. Yet another runoff seems likely, this time pitting Nunnelee against Ross.

NM-Gov: In the Republican primary, Santa Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez has been leading former state GOP chair Allen Weh by about 10 points in recent polls. Also running but farther behind are businessman Doug Turner, businessman Pete Domenici Jr. (son of former Sen. Pete Domenici), and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. The winner will take on Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the general election. Polls show Martinez to be the strongest general election candidate.

NM-01: It looks like Latino businessman Jon Barela, also a "Young Gun," will get the GOP nod to take on freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in this 43% Latino district centered around Albuquerque.

NM-02: And finally, freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D) appears poised to take on former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), yet another "Young Gun" who is running virtually unopposed in the GOP primary. Pearce left this seat to run an ultimately unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2008, and now wants it back.

Polls close at 8PM eastern in Alabama and Mississippi and 9PM in New Mexico.