Kansas, Michigan & Missouri Primaries Wrap-Up

KS-Sen: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) narrowly defeated Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 50% to 45% last night, and will almost certainly become the state's next senator. This comes as another blow to Sarah Palin, who backed Tiahrt in the primary. Both Republican congressmen were trying to paint the other one as moderate, but by national standards, both of these men are highly conservative--and Moran, like Sam Brownback before him, will provide a consistent Republican vote in the Senate.

KS-01: In the primary to replace Moran, state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R) won the GOP nomination by 10 points, which means--given the heavy Republican tilt of the district--that he will be the next congressman from this district.

KS-03: In the only competitive district in the state, state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) defeated former state Rep. Patricia Lightner (R) 45% to 37%. He will go on to face nurse Stephene Moore (D), the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D). Current rating: Lean Republican.

KS-04: In the GOP race to replace Tiahrt, former RNC Committeeman Mike Pompeo (R) defeated moderate and Planned Parenthood-endorsee state Sen. Jean Schodorf (R), 39% to 24%. He will face a slightly challenging Democratic opponent in state Rep. Ray Goyle (D), who has proven his fundraising prowess, but he's a heavy favorite to win.

MI-Gov: Former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R), a moderate who reached out to independents and Democrats describing himself as "one tough nerd," defeated Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) and Attorney General Mike Cox (R), 36% to 27% to 23%. While Hoekstra and Cox were fighting for the conservative/Tea Party vote, Snyder seemed to sneak by in the center. On the Democratic side, it looks like big labor showed up to support their horse in the race, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D). The progressive populist Bernero defeated state House Speaker Andy Dillon, a pro-life moderate, by an astounding 59% to 41% margin. While Snyder's victory in the GOP primary may be bad news for conservatives, it is even worse news for Democrats, as his moderate nature will make it almost impossible for Bernero to win in what was already going to be a tough race for any Democrat after the unpopular tenure of sitting Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D). Current rating: Likely Republican.

MI-01: We still don't know who won this one. With 100% of precincts reporting, surgeon Dan Benishek (R) currently leads state Sen. Jason Allen (R) by just 12 (!) votes, 27,070 to 27,058. Definitely expect a recount here. The eventual winner will go on to face state Rep. Gary McDowell (D). Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-02: In the race to replace the soon-to-be-unemployed Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), we also don't know won. With all of the precincts in, former state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) leads former NFL player Jay Riemersma (R) by 660 votes. AP hasn't called the race yet, but it's hard to see Riemersma making up that ground in a recount.

MI-03: In the only slightly competitive 3rd district, state Rep. Justin Amash (R)--who had the backing of the Club for Growth--won the GOP primary over the more moderate state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R). Attorney Pat Miles (D) , who has the ability to partially self-fund his candidacy, won the Democratic nod.

MI-07: Former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) defeated attorney and Iraq War veteran Brian Rooney (R) in the Republican nomination, 58% to 32%. Walberg will have a clear chance to get revenge this year, as he was ousted by now-Rep. Mark Schauer (D) in 2008. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-09: Former State Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R) crushed former Oakland County GOP chair Paul Welday (R)--the NRCC's pick in the race--42% to 28%. He'll face freshman Rep. Gary Peters (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

MI-13: State Sen. Hansen Clarke (D) ousted seven-term incumbent Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) in the Democratic primary last night, 47% to 41%. Kilpatrick was hurt by defending her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D), as he withstood multiple criminal counts (which he was later convicted of). Clarke is a shoo-in to win the general election in this dark blue district.

MO-Sen: The Missouri Senate race begins in earnest today, as Rep. Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) easily defeated their token primary opposition. State Sen. Chuck Purgason (R), who made some noise late in the game in the GOP primary, got crushed 71% to 13%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-03: Ed Martin (R), former Gov. Matt Blunt's (R) chief of staff, easily defeated Rusty Wallace (R) 63% to 21%. He'll have an uphill (but not an impossible) climb against Rep. Russ Carnahan (D).

MO-04: Former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) beat state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R) 41% to 30%, and will now take on longtime Rep. Ike Skelton (D), the chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

MO-07: In the race to replace Roy Blunt, auctioneer Billy Long (R) overcame the candidacies of several members of the state legislature to win the Republican nomination in the 7th district. He will cruise to victory in the general election in this heavily Republican district.

Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/26/10

AZ-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. John McCain (R) comfortably ahead of former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP Senate primary, 54% to 34%. Their poll from June only gave McCain an 11-point lead, showing McCain's negative ad blitz (and $16 million total expenditure) has seemed to work.

CO-Sen: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), long considered to be the Tea Party favorite in the race, is apologizing for some disparaging marks he made about the Tea Party movement. Here's the original quote from Buck: "Will you tell those dumbasses at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera? God, what am I supposed to do?" It probably won't be anything big, just an unforced error for the new GOP frontrunner. In other news, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed Jane Norton (R) over Buck in the GOP primary, giving her some anti-illegal immigration bona fides going forward. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six points, 48% to 42%. Rasmussen has been the only other pollster to test this race, and they have consistently found small leads for Blunt (usually within the margin of error). While Blunt appears to have the slight edge right now, we still rate this as a Toss-Up.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post is reporting that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) is following through on last week's threat to launch a third party bid after neither flawed GOP candidate got out of the race. Conventional wisdom is that the fiercely conservative and anti-illegal immigration Tancredo will split votes with the eventual Republican nominee in the general election and give Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) a clear path to victory. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

GA-Gov: The National Rifle Association is backing former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. That might help him to slowly close Karen Handel's (R) 11-point lead from the primary.

OK-Gov: A new Sooner poll finds Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) leading Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) by 16 points in the Democratic primary, 49% to 33%. In June, they found a tied race. The primary is on Tuesday. In general election match-ups, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) leads Edmondson by 8 points and Askins by 6 points--but is still under the 50% mark, meaning she is still very beatable.

TN-Gov: A Mason-Dixon poll from this weekend finds that Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is still the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. He leads Rep. Zach Wamp (R) 36% to 25%, with Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R) in third at 20%. In an attempt to shake up the race, Wamp has brought up the idea that Tennessee "may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates." The secession talk, of course, was initiated by Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) last year--and that strategy worked for him in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Haslam leads businessman Mike McWherter (D) by 18 points, Wamp bests him by 7 points, and Ramsey edges him by 5.

NY-13: Sen. John McCain (R) is endorsing former FBI agent Michael Grimm (R) in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Mike McMahon (D). Grimm is considered to be the stronger general election candidate and has the backing of the Conservative Party, but attorney Michael Allegretti (R) has the support of the Staten Island GOP. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) trailing state Rep. Rick Berg (R) by only three points, 46% to 49%. Their poll from last month found Berg up by 7 points, and even more before that. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Highlights From the 4th of July Recess

Well, I'm back from a week-long 4th of July vacation. Apparently I didn't miss a whole lot, but here's some of the highlights.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A Survey USA poll in California found Carly Fiorina (R) and Meg Whitman (R) leading their Democratic rivals in the state's senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively, for the first time. Other polls have shown both races tightening up as well.

CA-Sen, MO-Sen, NV-Sen: President Obama went to Missouri and Nevada to stump for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), respectively. Vice President Biden went to California to help Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) fundraise.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) was endorsed by Dick Armey's Freedom Works PAC as he continues to show signs of locking up the GOP nomination over the establishment favorite, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R).

IL-Sen: A Rasmussen poll found Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by one point.

KY-Sen: A PPP poll found Rand Paul (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) tied at 43%.

NV-Sen: In Nevada, Sharron Angle (R) is threatening to take legal action against Harry Reid's (D) campaign for resurrecting her much more right-wing website from when she was running in the GOP primary.

WV-Sen: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is planning on moving the special election for the state's open senate seat to this November instead of 2012. A Rasmussen poll gives Manchin a 14-point lead over potential rival Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/30/10

CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.

CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."

IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.

OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.

CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.

HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.

ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.

WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.

LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).

MO-Sen: All Tied Up

A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) virtually tied in the race for the state's open Senate seat.

Blunt leads Carnahan by only one point, 45% to 44%. It shows a seven-point swing in Carnahan's favor since last month's Rasmussen poll.

Election Frontier currently rates this race as a "Tossup."