CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.
CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."
IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.
KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.
MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.
OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.
CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.
HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.
ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.
WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.
ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.
LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).
Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.
Showing posts with label ME-Gov. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ME-Gov. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Friday, June 11, 2010
Daily Rundown: 6/11/10
CA-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the California Senate race, from Rasmussen, shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five-point lead over former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, 48% to 43%. In other news, Fiorina was caught on open-mic Thursday criticizing Meg Whitman's decision to go on Sean Hannity and making fun of Boxer's hair.
FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.
NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.
NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.
UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.
WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.
CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.
ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.
MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.
OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).
SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).
AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.
NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).
NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.
VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."
The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.
FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.
NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.
NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.
UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.
WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.
CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.
ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.
MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.
OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).
SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).
AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.
NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).
NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.
VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."
The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
6/8 Primaries Wrap-Up
Last night was very important in offering us some insight into the mindset of GOP voters across the country, and will have large implications on many general election races. Also, many women did very well last night in both parties, and really have the chance to expand their numbers in congress and statehouses everywhere.
In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) withstood a $10 million barrage of attacks from outside labor groups and narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff.
Conventional wisdom was that Lincoln was a goner. But with the support of Arkansas heavyweight Bill Clinton, a strong electoral base in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts (which happened to be having special House elections that night), and a strong closing message ("I'd rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas"), she swam above the strong national anti-incumbent wave.
Looking forward to the general election, Lincoln will have an even greater challenge as she has to swing back to the right to face Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election. Early polling shows Boozman up by anywhere from 17 to 38 points. Election Frontier currently rates this: Lean Republican.
In California, GOP voters chose two female former CEOs, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, as their nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively. They will take on two veteran Democratic politicians, Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, in the general election. Now we'll get to see who California voters dislike more: CEOs or politicians.
The only thing I could learn about Maine gubernatorial race was that the Republican nominee, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), was backed strongly by the local Tea Party movement. Score another win for them.
In Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) scored a major ideological victory last night in the GOP nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). It looked like Reid's only hope would be if GOP voters nominated Angle, given her extreme conservative views. And last night, he got his wish and now has a chance to win a reelection race that most thought was a lost cause.
Angry Nevada GOP voters showed that they don't care about general election viability, or at least aren't willing to compromise their conservative ideological purity to make the best long-term decision of who to nominate. And with Angle, they'll get what they voted for.
This is sure to be one of the nastiest, most expensive, heavily watched, overanalyzed, overpublicized races in the country. The winner of this race will no doubt be on the front page on the day after Election Day.
In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) all-but clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and should now start to look forward to the general election. Despite the (bizarre) barrage of attacks launched against her on all sides, Haley came out unscathed and will most likely be the next governor of the Palmetto state.
As First Read points out, Nikki's success may play a big role in the 2012 presidential primaries. Evey winner of the third-in-the-nation South Carolina Republican primary since 1980 has gone on to become the nominee.
"And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham's censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right."
For the Republican primaries in House races across the county, establishment-picked candidates fared reasonably well last night.
Establishment picks David Harmer (CA-11), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Scott Rigell (VA-02), and Robert Hurt (VA-05) all survived their contested primaries.
But a few insurgent candidates also pulled off wins last night. For instance, state Sen. Brad Zaun (R) whooped establishment favorite Jim Gibbons in Iowa's 3rd congressional district.
And Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was forced into a runoff against insurgent Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), and will probably lose due to his vote in favor of TARP.
In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) withstood a $10 million barrage of attacks from outside labor groups and narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff.
Conventional wisdom was that Lincoln was a goner. But with the support of Arkansas heavyweight Bill Clinton, a strong electoral base in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts (which happened to be having special House elections that night), and a strong closing message ("I'd rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas"), she swam above the strong national anti-incumbent wave.
Looking forward to the general election, Lincoln will have an even greater challenge as she has to swing back to the right to face Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election. Early polling shows Boozman up by anywhere from 17 to 38 points. Election Frontier currently rates this: Lean Republican.
In California, GOP voters chose two female former CEOs, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, as their nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively. They will take on two veteran Democratic politicians, Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, in the general election. Now we'll get to see who California voters dislike more: CEOs or politicians.
The only thing I could learn about Maine gubernatorial race was that the Republican nominee, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), was backed strongly by the local Tea Party movement. Score another win for them.
In Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) scored a major ideological victory last night in the GOP nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). It looked like Reid's only hope would be if GOP voters nominated Angle, given her extreme conservative views. And last night, he got his wish and now has a chance to win a reelection race that most thought was a lost cause.
Angry Nevada GOP voters showed that they don't care about general election viability, or at least aren't willing to compromise their conservative ideological purity to make the best long-term decision of who to nominate. And with Angle, they'll get what they voted for.
This is sure to be one of the nastiest, most expensive, heavily watched, overanalyzed, overpublicized races in the country. The winner of this race will no doubt be on the front page on the day after Election Day.
In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) all-but clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and should now start to look forward to the general election. Despite the (bizarre) barrage of attacks launched against her on all sides, Haley came out unscathed and will most likely be the next governor of the Palmetto state.
As First Read points out, Nikki's success may play a big role in the 2012 presidential primaries. Evey winner of the third-in-the-nation South Carolina Republican primary since 1980 has gone on to become the nominee.
"And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham's censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right."
For the Republican primaries in House races across the county, establishment-picked candidates fared reasonably well last night.
Establishment picks David Harmer (CA-11), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Scott Rigell (VA-02), and Robert Hurt (VA-05) all survived their contested primaries.
But a few insurgent candidates also pulled off wins last night. For instance, state Sen. Brad Zaun (R) whooped establishment favorite Jim Gibbons in Iowa's 3rd congressional district.
And Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was forced into a runoff against insurgent Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), and will probably lose due to his vote in favor of TARP.
ME-Gov: Mitchell, LePage Advance
In the quietest race in the country, state Senate President Libby Mitchell (D) and Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) won their respective party's nominations tonight in the open seat gubernatorial race.
Yeah, I don't really know who they are either.
In the Democratic primary, Mitchell defeated former Attorney General Steve Rowe (D) 35% to 24%. And in the GOP primary, LePage beat businessman Les Otten (R) 38% to 17%.
So begins "the battle of the unknowns."
Yeah, I don't really know who they are either.
In the Democratic primary, Mitchell defeated former Attorney General Steve Rowe (D) 35% to 24%. And in the GOP primary, LePage beat businessman Les Otten (R) 38% to 17%.
So begins "the battle of the unknowns."
Monday, June 7, 2010
June 8 Primaries: What to Watch For
Tomorrow night, the Boston Celtics will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers coming off of an important Game 2 victory in L.A. , where the Lakers will try to shut down the virtually unstoppable Ray Allen.
And, oh yeah, voters in eleven states will go to the polls to select their party's nominees. This is sure to be the biggest primary night so far, so here's the rundown on what to keep your eye on in the highest profile races of the night:
AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) will face off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff election in will be one of the most watched races of the night. Lincoln edged out Halter 45% to 43% in the first round of voting, but the word on the ground is that Halter's supporters are more likely to show up to the polls in what is expected to be a very low turnout event. Bill Clinton came to his home state to stump for Lincoln, who has tried to paint herself as more liberal since the first round of voting. Unions have spent tens of millions of dollars on Lincoln attack ads on behalf of Halter, who is more liberal than Lincoln. I'm giving the edge to Halter in this one.
AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, is in a runoff against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), who is more conservative. Causey has even claimed that Woolridge might defect to the GOP if elected. Woolridge led Causey in the first round of voting 38% to 27%, but Causey appears to have all the momentum in the race and can boast endorsements from Bill Clinton and two of his former rivals. With low turnout and a lack of public polling data, this race is completely up in the air.
AR-02: Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) will face state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in a runoff. Elliott, who is trying to become the state's first black congresswoman, led Wills 40% t0 28% in the first round. The more moderate Wills, feeling the need to make up that ground, attacked Elliott as "too liberal" for the district. Many of Elliott's supporters thought that "too liberal" was code for "too black" in a state with significant racial tensions.
CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) looks ready to claim the GOP nomination after a hard-fought battle with former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R). Campbell ran ahead of Fiorina in early polling, but fizzled as he ran out of money towards the end. Campbell's closing argument is that he has a better shot of beating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, but it hasn't seemed to resonate with GOP voters. Fiorina has consistently led Campbell by 15 points or more in each poll released in the last two weeks. DeVore, the Tea Party favorite in the race, failed to catch on and has remained quietly in third place.
CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), after faltering a bit early last month, is poised to win the GOP nomination over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R). This race was absurdly expensive and negative, but the last six polls have shown Whitman up by more than 20 points, meaning she won the ad and message war. Whitman, assuming she wins, will take on Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election, who has built up a sizable campaign warchest of his own.
CA-11: Three Republicans are jockeying to take on vulnerable sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in the general election. Attorney David Harmer, who is known for his better-than-expected performance in the CA-10 special election last year, looks like the establishment choice and can boast an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Also running are self-funding vineyard owner Brad Goehring--famous for joking about "hunting liberals"--and Elizabeth Emken, a former VP of "Autism Speaks" who was endorsed by Rick Santorum (of all people).
IA-Gov: Former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R), the establishment favorite, has a large lead over his two rivals, conservative favorite Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts, according to recent polling. Vander Plaats, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and evangelical leader James Dobson, has to hope for an anti-establishment furor and a surge of conservative and Tea Party activists at the polls to make this race close. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have weighed in on behalf of Branstad, a tactically safe move for the two likely 2012 presidential contenders in this important first-in-the-nation caucus state.
IA-03: In the competitive 3rd district, Jim Gibbons, a financial analyst and former Iowa State wrestling coach, looks to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Leonard Boswell (D). Gibbons is the NRCC favorite in the race and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. His biggest competition for the nomination comes state Sen. Brad Zaun. Gibbons also has to get past Tea Party favorite Dave Funk and four other Republicans. The crowded field may prevent anyone from getting 35%, which is needed to clinch the nomination. If no one reaches that number, the nominee will be decided by party insiders at a special convention soon after.
ME-Gov: This race has been ignored by pretty much everyone. The Democratic and Republican primaries for this race are crowded with over a dozen no-name candidates who all failed to even reach 20% in a recent poll. And 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans were undecided as of a week before the primary. State Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be the slight frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and business Les Otten appears to have the edge for the GOP nod, but the race is so unsettled that anything could happen.
NV-Sen: This is another one of the marquee races of the night, which is to be expected given that the winner of the GOP will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former state GOP chair and casino executive Sue Lowden was the early favorite in the race, but made a series of gaffes including her idea of bartering chickens for medical care and her (alleged) use of an illegally donated RV on the campaign trail. This created an opening for ultra-conservative former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is backed by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth. Angle has recently taken the lead in the polls, and has come under fire from Lowden. Businessman Danny Tarkanian, the most electable Republican who has quietly risen in the polls to tie Lowden, is hoping to be the beneficiary of all the mudslinging between Lowden and Angle and sneak a win tomorrow night.
NV-Gov: Former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) will almost definitely unseat scandal plagued Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in tomorrow's primary. Sandoval, who is obviously a much stronger general election candidate than Gibbons, will face Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (Harry's son) in the fall. On a side note, if Sandoval is nominated, it will mean that two Latino candidates have been nominated in southwestern states (Susana Martinez is the GOP nominee in New Mexico). Perhaps this is a sign that the GOP is starting the realize the importance of the Latino vote in that region?
NJ-03: Since Chris Christie unseated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in 2009, New Jersey Republicans have been bullish about their prospects to unseat freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in 2010. The NRCC's favored candidate is former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), who has run a lackluster campaign so far. Runyan, who is pro-choice, is getting a challenge to his right from Justin Murphy (R), a conservative activist who ran in the GOP primary in 2008. Despite Runyan's slow start, he should win the nomination with some ease. But if Murphy riles up enough conservative support, he could score an upset which would all but ruin the GOP's chances of taking back the seat.
SC-Gov: What a weird race its been. State Rep. Nikki Haley became the frontrunner about a month ago, and earned the endorsements of Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and the Mark Sanford political machine. Then she was accused of having an extra-marital affair by two separate men, neither of which was ever proven. Then, she was called a "raghead" by a fellow Republican because of her Indian descent. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is currently in fourth place in the polls, just touted the results of a polygraph test which "proved" he didn't start any of the affairs rumors, and asked Haley to take a test herself on the validity of the claims. Yet despite all of the ridiculous attacks lobbed against her and the three-ring circus of a primary she's gone through, Haley still leads the pack by a significant margin. But with four serious candidates in the race, it looks like Haley may fall short of 50% and be forced into a runoff with either Rep. Gresham Barrett or Attorney General Henry McMaster.
In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) appears to have a slight advantage over state school Superintendent Jim Rex (D). State Sen. Robert Ford, who is black, is also running and has been in the double digits in some polls, meaning a runoff is possible.
SD-AL: Three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to take on the vulnerable Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) is probably the favorite given his superior name recognition, but has so far has been a mediocre candidate with lackluster fundraising. He'll face state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem, who have both gone on the air ahead of tomorrow's primary and seem to have legitimate shots at winning.
VA-02: Auto executive Scott Rigell (R) is the NRCC favorite in this race. He's a member of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, has a ton of money to self-fund his candidacy, and has been endorsed by Gov. Bob McConnell, Minority Leader John Boehner, and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. But that doesn't mean he's going to win. His two top rivals, Iraq War veteran Bert Mizusawa and Tea Party favorite businessman Ben Loyola, have been aggressive fundraisers and have attacked Rigell for his $1,000 campaign donation to Barack Obama in 2008. Still, Rigell is the heavy favorite to win this one, but probably by a smaller margin than you might think. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in the general election.
VA-05: The NRCC likes state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in this primary, but he certainly is not well-liked by the conservative wing of the party. With his vote for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) tax-increasing 2004 state budget (h/t Swing State Project), he made a lot of enemies in the party. But the conservative wing failed to settle on one candidate, and their vote share will probably be divided between Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, teacher Feda Morton, real estate developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, and veteran Michael McPadden--allowing Hurt to win the nomination.
VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who ran for the seat in 2008, is facing off against Fairfax Country Supervisor Pat Herrity (R) for the GOP nomination to take on freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in this suburban D.C. district. Fimian has outraised Herrity, but GOP voters may go for the fresh face this time and pick Herrity to face Connolly, who has a large target on his back.
And, oh yeah, voters in eleven states will go to the polls to select their party's nominees. This is sure to be the biggest primary night so far, so here's the rundown on what to keep your eye on in the highest profile races of the night:
AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) will face off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff election in will be one of the most watched races of the night. Lincoln edged out Halter 45% to 43% in the first round of voting, but the word on the ground is that Halter's supporters are more likely to show up to the polls in what is expected to be a very low turnout event. Bill Clinton came to his home state to stump for Lincoln, who has tried to paint herself as more liberal since the first round of voting. Unions have spent tens of millions of dollars on Lincoln attack ads on behalf of Halter, who is more liberal than Lincoln. I'm giving the edge to Halter in this one.
AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, is in a runoff against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), who is more conservative. Causey has even claimed that Woolridge might defect to the GOP if elected. Woolridge led Causey in the first round of voting 38% to 27%, but Causey appears to have all the momentum in the race and can boast endorsements from Bill Clinton and two of his former rivals. With low turnout and a lack of public polling data, this race is completely up in the air.
AR-02: Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) will face state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in a runoff. Elliott, who is trying to become the state's first black congresswoman, led Wills 40% t0 28% in the first round. The more moderate Wills, feeling the need to make up that ground, attacked Elliott as "too liberal" for the district. Many of Elliott's supporters thought that "too liberal" was code for "too black" in a state with significant racial tensions.
CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) looks ready to claim the GOP nomination after a hard-fought battle with former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R). Campbell ran ahead of Fiorina in early polling, but fizzled as he ran out of money towards the end. Campbell's closing argument is that he has a better shot of beating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, but it hasn't seemed to resonate with GOP voters. Fiorina has consistently led Campbell by 15 points or more in each poll released in the last two weeks. DeVore, the Tea Party favorite in the race, failed to catch on and has remained quietly in third place.
CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), after faltering a bit early last month, is poised to win the GOP nomination over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R). This race was absurdly expensive and negative, but the last six polls have shown Whitman up by more than 20 points, meaning she won the ad and message war. Whitman, assuming she wins, will take on Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election, who has built up a sizable campaign warchest of his own.
CA-11: Three Republicans are jockeying to take on vulnerable sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in the general election. Attorney David Harmer, who is known for his better-than-expected performance in the CA-10 special election last year, looks like the establishment choice and can boast an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Also running are self-funding vineyard owner Brad Goehring--famous for joking about "hunting liberals"--and Elizabeth Emken, a former VP of "Autism Speaks" who was endorsed by Rick Santorum (of all people).
IA-Gov: Former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R), the establishment favorite, has a large lead over his two rivals, conservative favorite Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts, according to recent polling. Vander Plaats, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and evangelical leader James Dobson, has to hope for an anti-establishment furor and a surge of conservative and Tea Party activists at the polls to make this race close. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have weighed in on behalf of Branstad, a tactically safe move for the two likely 2012 presidential contenders in this important first-in-the-nation caucus state.
IA-03: In the competitive 3rd district, Jim Gibbons, a financial analyst and former Iowa State wrestling coach, looks to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Leonard Boswell (D). Gibbons is the NRCC favorite in the race and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. His biggest competition for the nomination comes state Sen. Brad Zaun. Gibbons also has to get past Tea Party favorite Dave Funk and four other Republicans. The crowded field may prevent anyone from getting 35%, which is needed to clinch the nomination. If no one reaches that number, the nominee will be decided by party insiders at a special convention soon after.
ME-Gov: This race has been ignored by pretty much everyone. The Democratic and Republican primaries for this race are crowded with over a dozen no-name candidates who all failed to even reach 20% in a recent poll. And 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans were undecided as of a week before the primary. State Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be the slight frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and business Les Otten appears to have the edge for the GOP nod, but the race is so unsettled that anything could happen.
NV-Sen: This is another one of the marquee races of the night, which is to be expected given that the winner of the GOP will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former state GOP chair and casino executive Sue Lowden was the early favorite in the race, but made a series of gaffes including her idea of bartering chickens for medical care and her (alleged) use of an illegally donated RV on the campaign trail. This created an opening for ultra-conservative former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is backed by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth. Angle has recently taken the lead in the polls, and has come under fire from Lowden. Businessman Danny Tarkanian, the most electable Republican who has quietly risen in the polls to tie Lowden, is hoping to be the beneficiary of all the mudslinging between Lowden and Angle and sneak a win tomorrow night.
NV-Gov: Former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) will almost definitely unseat scandal plagued Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in tomorrow's primary. Sandoval, who is obviously a much stronger general election candidate than Gibbons, will face Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (Harry's son) in the fall. On a side note, if Sandoval is nominated, it will mean that two Latino candidates have been nominated in southwestern states (Susana Martinez is the GOP nominee in New Mexico). Perhaps this is a sign that the GOP is starting the realize the importance of the Latino vote in that region?
NJ-03: Since Chris Christie unseated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in 2009, New Jersey Republicans have been bullish about their prospects to unseat freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in 2010. The NRCC's favored candidate is former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), who has run a lackluster campaign so far. Runyan, who is pro-choice, is getting a challenge to his right from Justin Murphy (R), a conservative activist who ran in the GOP primary in 2008. Despite Runyan's slow start, he should win the nomination with some ease. But if Murphy riles up enough conservative support, he could score an upset which would all but ruin the GOP's chances of taking back the seat.
SC-Gov: What a weird race its been. State Rep. Nikki Haley became the frontrunner about a month ago, and earned the endorsements of Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and the Mark Sanford political machine. Then she was accused of having an extra-marital affair by two separate men, neither of which was ever proven. Then, she was called a "raghead" by a fellow Republican because of her Indian descent. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is currently in fourth place in the polls, just touted the results of a polygraph test which "proved" he didn't start any of the affairs rumors, and asked Haley to take a test herself on the validity of the claims. Yet despite all of the ridiculous attacks lobbed against her and the three-ring circus of a primary she's gone through, Haley still leads the pack by a significant margin. But with four serious candidates in the race, it looks like Haley may fall short of 50% and be forced into a runoff with either Rep. Gresham Barrett or Attorney General Henry McMaster.
In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) appears to have a slight advantage over state school Superintendent Jim Rex (D). State Sen. Robert Ford, who is black, is also running and has been in the double digits in some polls, meaning a runoff is possible.
SD-AL: Three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to take on the vulnerable Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) is probably the favorite given his superior name recognition, but has so far has been a mediocre candidate with lackluster fundraising. He'll face state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem, who have both gone on the air ahead of tomorrow's primary and seem to have legitimate shots at winning.
VA-02: Auto executive Scott Rigell (R) is the NRCC favorite in this race. He's a member of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, has a ton of money to self-fund his candidacy, and has been endorsed by Gov. Bob McConnell, Minority Leader John Boehner, and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. But that doesn't mean he's going to win. His two top rivals, Iraq War veteran Bert Mizusawa and Tea Party favorite businessman Ben Loyola, have been aggressive fundraisers and have attacked Rigell for his $1,000 campaign donation to Barack Obama in 2008. Still, Rigell is the heavy favorite to win this one, but probably by a smaller margin than you might think. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in the general election.
VA-05: The NRCC likes state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in this primary, but he certainly is not well-liked by the conservative wing of the party. With his vote for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) tax-increasing 2004 state budget (h/t Swing State Project), he made a lot of enemies in the party. But the conservative wing failed to settle on one candidate, and their vote share will probably be divided between Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, teacher Feda Morton, real estate developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, and veteran Michael McPadden--allowing Hurt to win the nomination.
VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who ran for the seat in 2008, is facing off against Fairfax Country Supervisor Pat Herrity (R) for the GOP nomination to take on freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in this suburban D.C. district. Fimian has outraised Herrity, but GOP voters may go for the fresh face this time and pick Herrity to face Connolly, who has a large target on his back.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Daily Rundown: 6/2/10
CA-Sen: Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) is pulling his television ads a week out from the primary, highlighting his financial disadvantage against his rival, businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Campbell is going almost completely dark, relying only on internet ads and robocalls to reach out to Republican voters. Fiorina, who already has a sizable lead in the polls, has been spending millions of her own cash on the race and now will have the California airwaves to herself heading into the primary.
KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 8 points, 49% to 41%. This is a drastic change from their poll released right after the primary, which had Paul up 25.
AL-Gov: Looks like we may be heading towards a recount in the GOP primary, as state Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James are both lawyering up. The Secretary of State has yet to call declare who will take on former state Sen. Bradley Byrne in the runoff, but as of now Bentley leads James by 208 votes.
IA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows frontrunner former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) might not have such an easy time in next week's GOP primary. He only leads businessman Bob Vander Plaats by 15 points, 46-31. Brandstad would be the strongest general election candidate against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D).
ME-Gov: A new Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll shows a wide-open race for both parties in next week's gubernatorial primary. 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans are still undecided. On the Democratic side, state Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be slightly ahead of the pack. On the Republican side, businessman Les Otten holds a 7-point lead over the competition. But with none of the candidates in either race topping 20% and such a high number of undecideds, don't read too much into these numbers.
MI-Gov: A new PPP poll shows businessman Rick Snyder to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. He leads Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) by 16 points and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by 20. The other Republican candidates still poll ahead of Bernero and Dillon, but by much smaller margins.
AR-01: Bill Clinton is backing Chad Causey (D), retiring Rep. Marion Berry's chief of staff, in the June 8 primary runoff. Causey appears to be picking up momentum in his race against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), the more conservative Democrat in the race who finished ahead of Causey in the first round of voting.
NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has backed out of a televised debate against runoff opponent Harold Johnson (R), claiming there's been a "collaboration between the Harold Johnson campaign and the news media to use partial truth, innuendo and accusations to unfairly smear me." D'Annunzio has been accused of drug use, criminal activity, and claiming that he is a prophet; and has lost nearly all support he had from the GOP and outside groups.
TN-08: Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott is raising money for Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn in the GOP primary, even as the GOP establishment is actively backing gospel singer Stephen Fincher. Physician Ron Kirkland, who can self-fund his campaign, is also running in the primary. The winner will face state Sen. Roy Herron (D) in the general election.
WA-03: State Sen. Craig Pridemore dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Brian Baird (D) yesterday, citing fundraising problems, and backed former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D). The more moderate Heck now seems to have the nomination all locked up.
KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 8 points, 49% to 41%. This is a drastic change from their poll released right after the primary, which had Paul up 25.
AL-Gov: Looks like we may be heading towards a recount in the GOP primary, as state Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James are both lawyering up. The Secretary of State has yet to call declare who will take on former state Sen. Bradley Byrne in the runoff, but as of now Bentley leads James by 208 votes.
IA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows frontrunner former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) might not have such an easy time in next week's GOP primary. He only leads businessman Bob Vander Plaats by 15 points, 46-31. Brandstad would be the strongest general election candidate against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D).
ME-Gov: A new Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll shows a wide-open race for both parties in next week's gubernatorial primary. 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans are still undecided. On the Democratic side, state Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be slightly ahead of the pack. On the Republican side, businessman Les Otten holds a 7-point lead over the competition. But with none of the candidates in either race topping 20% and such a high number of undecideds, don't read too much into these numbers.
MI-Gov: A new PPP poll shows businessman Rick Snyder to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. He leads Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) by 16 points and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by 20. The other Republican candidates still poll ahead of Bernero and Dillon, but by much smaller margins.
AR-01: Bill Clinton is backing Chad Causey (D), retiring Rep. Marion Berry's chief of staff, in the June 8 primary runoff. Causey appears to be picking up momentum in his race against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), the more conservative Democrat in the race who finished ahead of Causey in the first round of voting.
NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has backed out of a televised debate against runoff opponent Harold Johnson (R), claiming there's been a "collaboration between the Harold Johnson campaign and the news media to use partial truth, innuendo and accusations to unfairly smear me." D'Annunzio has been accused of drug use, criminal activity, and claiming that he is a prophet; and has lost nearly all support he had from the GOP and outside groups.
TN-08: Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott is raising money for Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn in the GOP primary, even as the GOP establishment is actively backing gospel singer Stephen Fincher. Physician Ron Kirkland, who can self-fund his campaign, is also running in the primary. The winner will face state Sen. Roy Herron (D) in the general election.
WA-03: State Sen. Craig Pridemore dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Brian Baird (D) yesterday, citing fundraising problems, and backed former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D). The more moderate Heck now seems to have the nomination all locked up.
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