June 8 Primaries: What to Watch For

Tomorrow night, the Boston Celtics will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers coming off of an important Game 2 victory in L.A. , where the Lakers will try to shut down the virtually unstoppable Ray Allen.

And, oh yeah, voters in eleven states will go to the polls to select their party's nominees. This is sure to be the biggest primary night so far, so here's the rundown on what to keep your eye on in the highest profile races of the night:

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) will face off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff election in will be one of the most watched races of the night. Lincoln edged out Halter 45% to 43% in the first round of voting, but the word on the ground is that Halter's supporters are more likely to show up to the polls in what is expected to be a very low turnout event. Bill Clinton came to his home state to stump for Lincoln, who has tried to paint herself as more liberal since the first round of voting. Unions have spent tens of millions of dollars on Lincoln attack ads on behalf of Halter, who is more liberal than Lincoln. I'm giving the edge to Halter in this one.

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, is in a runoff against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), who is more conservative. Causey has even claimed that Woolridge might defect to the GOP if elected. Woolridge led Causey in the first round of voting 38% to 27%, but Causey appears to have all the momentum in the race and can boast endorsements from Bill Clinton and two of his former rivals. With low turnout and a lack of public polling data, this race is completely up in the air.

AR-02: Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) will face state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in a runoff. Elliott, who is trying to become the state's first black congresswoman, led Wills 40% t0 28% in the first round. The more moderate Wills, feeling the need to make up that ground, attacked Elliott as "too liberal" for the district. Many of Elliott's supporters thought that "too liberal" was code for "too black" in a state with significant racial tensions.

CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) looks ready to claim the GOP nomination after a hard-fought battle with former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R). Campbell ran ahead of Fiorina in early polling, but fizzled as he ran out of money towards the end. Campbell's closing argument is that he has a better shot of beating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, but it hasn't seemed to resonate with GOP voters. Fiorina has consistently led Campbell by 15 points or more in each poll released in the last two weeks. DeVore, the Tea Party favorite in the race, failed to catch on and has remained quietly in third place.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), after faltering a bit early last month, is poised to win the GOP nomination over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R). This race was absurdly expensive and negative, but the last six polls have shown Whitman up by more than 20 points, meaning she won the ad and message war. Whitman, assuming she wins, will take on Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election, who has built up a sizable campaign warchest of his own.

CA-11: Three Republicans are jockeying to take on vulnerable sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in the general election. Attorney David Harmer, who is known for his better-than-expected performance in the CA-10 special election last year, looks like the establishment choice and can boast an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Also running are self-funding vineyard owner Brad Goehring--famous for joking about "hunting liberals"--and Elizabeth Emken, a former VP of "Autism Speaks" who was endorsed by Rick Santorum (of all people).

IA-Gov: Former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R), the establishment favorite, has a large lead over his two rivals, conservative favorite Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts, according to recent polling. Vander Plaats, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and evangelical leader James Dobson, has to hope for an anti-establishment furor and a surge of conservative and Tea Party activists at the polls to make this race close. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have weighed in on behalf of Branstad, a tactically safe move for the two likely 2012 presidential contenders in this important first-in-the-nation caucus state.

IA-03: In the competitive 3rd district, Jim Gibbons, a financial analyst and former Iowa State wrestling coach, looks to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Leonard Boswell (D). Gibbons is the NRCC favorite in the race and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. His biggest competition for the nomination comes state Sen. Brad Zaun. Gibbons also has to get past Tea Party favorite Dave Funk and four other Republicans. The crowded field may prevent anyone from getting 35%, which is needed to clinch the nomination. If no one reaches that number, the nominee will be decided by party insiders at a special convention soon after.

ME-Gov: This race has been ignored by pretty much everyone. The Democratic and Republican primaries for this race are crowded with over a dozen no-name candidates who all failed to even reach 20% in a recent poll. And 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans were undecided as of a week before the primary. State Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be the slight frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and business Les Otten appears to have the edge for the GOP nod, but the race is so unsettled that anything could happen.

NV-Sen: This is another one of the marquee races of the night, which is to be expected given that the winner of the GOP will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former state GOP chair and casino executive Sue Lowden was the early favorite in the race, but made a series of gaffes including her idea of bartering chickens for medical care and her (alleged) use of an illegally donated RV on the campaign trail. This created an opening for ultra-conservative former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is backed by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth. Angle has recently taken the lead in the polls, and has come under fire from Lowden. Businessman Danny Tarkanian, the most electable Republican who has quietly risen in the polls to tie Lowden, is hoping to be the beneficiary of all the mudslinging between Lowden and Angle and sneak a win tomorrow night.

NV-Gov: Former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) will almost definitely unseat scandal plagued Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in tomorrow's primary. Sandoval, who is obviously a much stronger general election candidate than Gibbons, will face Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (Harry's son) in the fall. On a side note, if Sandoval is nominated, it will mean that two Latino candidates have been nominated in southwestern states (Susana Martinez is the GOP nominee in New Mexico). Perhaps this is a sign that the GOP is starting the realize the importance of the Latino vote in that region?

NJ-03: Since Chris Christie unseated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in 2009, New Jersey Republicans have been bullish about their prospects to unseat freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in 2010. The NRCC's favored candidate is former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), who has run a lackluster campaign so far. Runyan, who is pro-choice, is getting a challenge to his right from Justin Murphy (R), a conservative activist who ran in the GOP primary in 2008. Despite Runyan's slow start, he should win the nomination with some ease. But if Murphy riles up enough conservative support, he could score an upset which would all but ruin the GOP's chances of taking back the seat.

SC-Gov: What a weird race its been. State Rep. Nikki Haley became the frontrunner about a month ago, and earned the endorsements of Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and the Mark Sanford political machine. Then she was accused of having an extra-marital affair by two separate men, neither of which was ever proven. Then, she was called a "raghead" by a fellow Republican because of her Indian descent. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is currently in fourth place in the polls, just touted the results of a polygraph test which "proved" he didn't start any of the affairs rumors, and asked Haley to take a test herself on the validity of the claims. Yet despite all of the ridiculous attacks lobbed against her and the three-ring circus of a primary she's gone through, Haley still leads the pack by a significant margin. But with four serious candidates in the race, it looks like Haley may fall short of 50% and be forced into a runoff with either Rep. Gresham Barrett or Attorney General Henry McMaster.

In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) appears to have a slight advantage over state school Superintendent Jim Rex (D). State Sen. Robert Ford, who is black, is also running and has been in the double digits in some polls, meaning a runoff is possible.

SD-AL: Three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to take on the vulnerable Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) is probably the favorite given his superior name recognition, but has so far has been a mediocre candidate with lackluster fundraising. He'll face state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem, who have both gone on the air ahead of tomorrow's primary and seem to have legitimate shots at winning.

VA-02: Auto executive Scott Rigell (R) is the NRCC favorite in this race. He's a member of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, has a ton of money to self-fund his candidacy, and has been endorsed by Gov. Bob McConnell, Minority Leader John Boehner, and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. But that doesn't mean he's going to win. His two top rivals, Iraq War veteran Bert Mizusawa and Tea Party favorite businessman Ben Loyola, have been aggressive fundraisers and have attacked Rigell for his $1,000 campaign donation to Barack Obama in 2008. Still, Rigell is the heavy favorite to win this one, but probably by a smaller margin than you might think. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in the general election.

VA-05: The NRCC likes state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in this primary, but he certainly is not well-liked by the conservative wing of the party. With his vote for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) tax-increasing 2004 state budget (h/t Swing State Project), he made a lot of enemies in the party. But the conservative wing failed to settle on one candidate, and their vote share will probably be divided between Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, teacher Feda Morton, real estate developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, and veteran Michael McPadden--allowing Hurt to win the nomination.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who ran for the seat in 2008, is facing off against Fairfax Country Supervisor Pat Herrity (R) for the GOP nomination to take on freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in this suburban D.C. district. Fimian has outraised Herrity, but GOP voters may go for the fresh face this time and pick Herrity to face Connolly, who has a large target on his back.