When entrenched eight-term incumbent Rep. John Shadegg (R) announced his retirement, many local Republicans and a few Democrats jumped at the chance to take his place.
Among the crowded Republican field, the biggest name is Ben Quayle, an attorney and investor and son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, who led the pack in fundraising. His biggest competitors (at least financially) appear to be businessman Steve Moak and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who switched from the governor's race.
Also running are former state Sen. Jim Waring, attorney Paulina Morris, former state Sen. Pamela Gorman, former state Rep. Sam Crump, and former Paradise Valley Mayor Ed Winkler.
Democrats seem to be coalescing around attorney Jon Hulburd, who has proven to be a worthy fundraiser.
But seeing as Shadegg weathered the 2008 Democratic surge by a relatively comfortable 12-point margin and John McCain carried the district 56% to 42% over Barack Obama, its hard to see the Democrats taking this seat this time around when enthusiasm will be much lower.
Plus, the DCCC (even though they say they are "targeting" the district) will probably be using most of its resources to defend vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The only hope Hulburd has is if the GOP primary turns very negative and expensive. But don't count on it making the difference.
PVI: R+9
Ben Quayle: Raised $557,000 in Q1; $503,000 cash-on-hand
Steve Moak: Raised $278,000 in Q1; $280,000 cash-on-hand
Vernon Parker: Raised $230,000 in Q1; $179,000 cash-on-hand
Jim Waring: Raised $104,000 in Q1; $115,000 cash-on-hand
Paulina Morris: Raised $104,000 in Q1; $110 cash-on-hand
Pamela Gorman: Raised $37,000 in Q1; $23,000 cash-on-hand
Jon Hulburd: Raised $175,000 in Q1; $331,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Likely GOP
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