Last night in a huge surprise in the Alabama gubernatorial primary, state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks trounced Rep. Artur Davis in the Democratic primary. Sparks, who ran to Davis's left, beat his rival by a whopping 62% to 38% margin.
What was so surprising wasn't that Sparks beat Davis (he was gaining on Davis in the polls and had the backing of some key groups like the Alabama Education Association), but more the margin of his victory. Polls had Davis up by low double-digits heading into the primary, and instead the spread was 24 points in the opposite direction. I guess Nate Silver was right about the inaccuracy of southern Democratic primary polls.
Some argue that Davis's crushing defeat was due to him positioning himself too far to the right in preparation for the general election instead of catering to Democratic voters just to get on the ballot in November. Some might argue that his strategy of keeping the state's African-American establishment at arms-length while aggressively courting the white vote was what did him in. Some attribute it to Sparks's unequivocal support of legalizing Las Vegas-style gambling in Alabama. It's probably some combination of the three, or maybe that Sparks was just a far superior candidate.
Meanwhile, Sparks's general election opponent is still unknown. On the Republican side, Bradley Byrne secured a spot in the July 13 runoff, as he leads the pack with 27.9%. Robert Bentley (the big surprise of the night) and Tim James are fighting for the other spot in the runoff. Bentley currently leads James by 208 votes, but the results have not been finalized.
"Ten Commandments" Judge Roy Moore finished in a disappointing fourth, more than 8 points behind Byrne, despite his support among the Tea Party activists.
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