Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), who was first elected in 2006 in this Tucson-centered district, is one of the top targets for the NRCC in 2010. And as a member of the DCCC's "Frontline" program, she is a top defensive priority for Democrats as well.
Giffords, a Blue Dog, won reelection by a comfortable 12-point margin in 2008. But she greatly angered conservatives with her vote for the health care reform overhaul, who have attacked her for being too liberal for the district. They've also been emboldened by John McCain's 52% to 46% victory over Barack Obama in this district in 2008.
As a result, Republicans have some top-tier candidates running the GOP primary, with former state Sen. Jonathan Paton (a "Contender") and businessman Jesse Kelly (who is "On the Radar") leading the way. Paton is viewed as more of the establishment candidate, while Kelly is backed by the Tea Party movement and has been endorsed by the Club for Growth, a conservative anti-tax organization.
Giffords could benefit from a nasty GOP primary, especially because the primary is just over two months before the general election.
All that's certain is that Giffords will face some tough opposition this fall, especially if the better-funded Paton becomes the GOP nominee. Giffords has shown fundraising prowess of her own, with a campaign warchest of nearly $2 million.
PVI: R+4
Gabrielle Giffords*: Raised $490,000 in Q1; $1,958,000 cash-on-hand
Jonathan Paton: Raised $505,000 in Q1; $408,000 cash-on-hand
Jesse Kelly: Raised $95,000 in Q1; $206,000 cash-on-hand
Current Rating: Lean DEM
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