District Profile: AL-02

This the first in a series of 102 profiles of the most competitive districts in the country. Here we go.

Freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) has been about as conservative as you can be in his short 18 months in office. This pro-life Blue Dog voted against President Obama's stimulus package, the health care reform legislation, the cap-and-trade bill, and the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal.

Nevertheless, Bright remains a top target for the NRCC this cycle. The Alabama 2nd, centered around Montgomery, is a solidly conservative district which had been in Republican hands for four decades before Bright took the seat in 2008. He benefited from a nasty GOP primary and a surge in black turnout (the district is 30% black), and still only beat GOP nominee Jay Love by 0.6%. John McCain thumped Barack Obama in the district 63% to 37%. In acknowledgement of these daunting statistics, the DCCC placed Bright on their "Frontline" program for vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

The June 1 GOP primary did not yield a nominee, meaning a runoff will take place between the top two candidates on July 13. The NRCC's favorite in the race is Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, who earned top "Young Gun" recruiting status by said committee. Roby has proved herself to be a solid fundraiser, banking $223,000 at the end of the first quarter. She earned 49% of the vote in the initial primary vote, just shy of clinching the nomination outright.

Roby will face businessman Rick Barber, a favorite of the Tea Party movement, in the runoff. Barber is a much weaker fundraiser, but might benefit in the runoff by having more motivated supporters.

Whoever the Republican nominee is, this race should be a close one come November. But it's the kind of seat Republicans need to win if they want to retake the majority in the House.

PVI: R+16

Bobby Bright*: Raised $176,000 in Q1; $658,000 cash-on-hand
Martha Roby: Raised $127,000 in Q1; $223,000 cash-on-hand
Rick Barber: Raised $44,000 in Q1; $26,000 cash-on hand

Current Rating: Toss-Up