Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/27/10

CA-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%. According to the poll, independents have dashed away from Fiorina back toward Boxer, which essentially what puts Boxer in the lead. Most other public polls have found a much closer race, and some have even given Fiorina the lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both Republican candidates with small leads over both Democrats. Ken Buck (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D) by six points. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads Bennet by nine, and bests Romanoff by four. Meanwhile, Romanoff is selling his house and loaning his campaign $325,000 to go "all-in" in his insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. Courageous move or act of desperation? I'm betting on the latter. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with a new poll that finds that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Kelly Ayotte (R) may have backfired. She has her smallest lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to date, besting him by just three points, 45% to 42%. While shoring up her Republican base, she seems to have lost moderates in the process--seemingly in part because of Palin' endorsement. In April, Hodes led Ayotte by just 8 points among moderates, and now he's up by 21 points--and her favorability among that group has plummeted. Meanwhile, self-funding businessman Bill Binnie (R) leads Hodes by six points, Hodes leads Jim Bender (R) by one point and Ovide Lamontagne (R) by 5. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by seven points, 44% to 37%, with 15% undecided. Current rating: Lean Republican.

FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you release an internal poll showing you losing to a virtual unknown candidate. State Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) released an internal poll showing him trailing Rick Scott (R) by six points, 37% to 31%. Most public polling shows Scott with a much larger lead.

MD-Gov: A new Gonzales Research poll finds sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%--within the poll's margin of error. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (R) by three points, 47% to 44%--virtually unchanged from their June poll of the race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NM-01: A new Survey USA poll finds businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) by six points, 51% to 45%. But there's a red flag here, as it seems pretty unlikely that only 4% of voters are undecided this far out from the election. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/14/10

CA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Boxer led by 5 points in their poll from last month, but several other pollsters have found the race to be much closer, with Survey USA even giving Fiorina the lead (albeit within the margin of error). Our polling average finds Boxer up by 3 points, and we currently rate this race as: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) raised $417,000 in the second quarter and is sitting on $664,000 on hand. His primary opponent, Jane Norton (R), raised $900,000 over the same period of time, but only has $600,000 in the bank. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by two points, 47% to 45%. Their poll from last month found Blunt up by 5 points. We'll see if the visit from President Obama on Carnahan's behalf over the July 4 recess helped or hurt her in the next round of polling. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points, 49% to 37%. This is an identical result from their poll in May, showing that the Hodes campaign's attempts to tie Ayotte into the state's Ponzi scheme scandal haven't worked so far. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) tops Hodes by 11 points, businessman Jim Bender (R) is up by 4, and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) bests Hodes by 3. Current rating: Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 46% to 36%. Libertarian Michael Beitler trails with 6%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) at 43%. Toomey led Sestak by 8 points in an April Quinnipiac poll. Still, about half of voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, so this race is still very much up for grabs. Our polling average has Toomey up by 0.8 points, and we currently rate this race as a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) took in an impressive $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, almost matching Sen. Patty Murray's (D) $1.6 million. Current ratng: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) is up with a new ad touting his opposition to oil drilling in the Great Lakes, while claiming that his opponent, businessman Ron Johnson (R), supports it. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: They just keep dropping like flies. Four days after state Treasurer Dean Martin (R) dropped out of the gubernatorial race, businessman Buz Mills (R) followed suit, leaving Gov. Jan Brewer (R) a clear path to the GOP nomination--not that she was in any jeopardy of losing it anyway. Mills was once seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but the minute that Brewer signed the new aggressive immigration law, her approval ratings shot through the roof. Now she will take on Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CO-Gov: Just when former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) got done for apologizing for plagiarizing a judge's essay that he submitted as "original works", the Denver Post found that this wasn't an isolated incident. "A Denver Post review of McInnis' floor speeches and columns published during his congressional career found striking similarities between a 1995 speech and 1994 column by McInnis and a previously published Op-Ed in the Washington Post."

Dan Maes, McInnis' primary challenger who had previously failed to gain any traction, is making hay of the story--and for good reason. Many Colorado Republicans are saying that he's a dead man walking and the Denver Post has even called for him to step aside. We'll see if McInnis can weather the storm. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Highlights From the 4th of July Recess

Well, I'm back from a week-long 4th of July vacation. Apparently I didn't miss a whole lot, but here's some of the highlights.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A Survey USA poll in California found Carly Fiorina (R) and Meg Whitman (R) leading their Democratic rivals in the state's senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively, for the first time. Other polls have shown both races tightening up as well.

CA-Sen, MO-Sen, NV-Sen: President Obama went to Missouri and Nevada to stump for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), respectively. Vice President Biden went to California to help Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) fundraise.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) was endorsed by Dick Armey's Freedom Works PAC as he continues to show signs of locking up the GOP nomination over the establishment favorite, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R).

IL-Sen: A Rasmussen poll found Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by one point.

KY-Sen: A PPP poll found Rand Paul (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) tied at 43%.

NV-Sen: In Nevada, Sharron Angle (R) is threatening to take legal action against Harry Reid's (D) campaign for resurrecting her much more right-wing website from when she was running in the GOP primary.

WV-Sen: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is planning on moving the special election for the state's open senate seat to this November instead of 2012. A Rasmussen poll gives Manchin a 14-point lead over potential rival Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/30/10

CA-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by four points, 45% to 41%. The only other poll taken of the race since the primary had Boxer up by 5 points.

CO-Sen: One day before the second quarter fundraising deadline, Bill Clinton sent out an email endorsing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) for Senate. The White House, DSCC, and national Democrats are publicly supporting appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary. It appears that, although this is the first major intra-party division thus far for the Democrats, this was not a snub at the Obama administration but rather Clinton staying loyal to those who endorsed his wife's presidential run (a list which also includes Florida's Kendrick Meek and Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln). Clinton did not mention Bennet by name in the email, and appears to have no further plans to stump or fundraise for Romanoff. But this still gives Romanoff's campaign a much needed boost, as it has been stuck in neutral since "Jobsgate."

IL-Sen: After a month of misrepresenting his record in military service and as a teacher, and ignoring (and sometimes literally running away from) the press, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) finally did some damage control yesterday. He sat down with some local press and apologized for his actions, saying "I wasn't thinking." Then he turned his fire on his opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). He's airing two new ads hitting Giannoulias on his ties to BP and his alleged mob ties and failed family bank. Giannoulias is hitting back with an ad attacking Kirk for "lying" about his military record. This race, along with Nevada, is going to be one of the ugliest in the country, and perhaps in recent history. Expect the negatives for both of these candidates to rise quickly as the general election kicks into gear. If I was an independent with a lot of money living in Illinois, I would start to think seriously about running a third-party campaign.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen's out with another poll in this race, this time showing Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by seven points, 49% to 42%. Their poll from earlier this month found Paul up by eight.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen also tested this surprisingly quiet race (they seem to be the only ones putting any polls in the field) and finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by five points, 48% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt with just a one point lead.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) had her first major post-primary interview last night with Las Vegas Sun reporter and well-respected political commentator Jon Ralston. While she eased off some of her primary-era rhetoric--like “people are really looking towards those Second Amendment remedies” to “take Harry Reid out"--she held her ground on her far right views on abortion and social security.

OH-Sen: We've got a pair of polls out here. Both Quinnipiac and PPP find Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) by two points (within the margin of error), confirming that this is a wide open race. This is still probably the best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden will stump for Fisher in Cleveland today. It's hard to say whether that'll help or hurt Fisher, as Quinnipiac found just 45% of Ohioans approve of the Obama administration and 55% disapprove of the new health care reform law.

CA-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll found Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 45% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Brown only up by one point, but Whitman appeared to have something of a post-primary bump around the time of that sample.

HI-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll of Hawaii's open gubernatorial contest finds both Democratic candidates in great shape to retake the governor's mansion. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 58% to 32% and tops John Carroll, who ran for GOP nomination unsuccessfully in 2002, 59% to 30%. Meanwhile, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) leads Aiona 52% to 30% and bests Carroll 57% to 23%.

ME-Gov: EMILY's List is endorsing state Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D) for governor today, giving her a fundraising boost as she faces off against Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) and Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) in the general election.

WI-Gov: A new PPP poll finds both Republican candidates with slight advantages over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R), who's been endorsed by the state GOP, leads Barrett by seven points, 45% to 38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) leads Barrett by five points, 41% to 36%.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is refusing to back away from some harsh criticism he had for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Said Labrador: "McCain is the problem with the Republican Party. McCain is the kind of individual who is willing to compromise his principles in order to get a result. And I will tell you, I will never compromise my principles to get elected." He went even further, saying he would support McCain's primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R): "I would not support McCain in Arizona. In fact, I would support J.D. J.D. is actually a conservative, principled individual. I was not the one who was McCain's campaign manager." Labrador was referring to his vanquished primary rival, Vaughn Ward (R), who served as Nevada state director for McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Labrador is already having a hard time getting support from national Republicans for beating Ward, the NRCC's preferred candidate, and criticizing House Minority Leader John Boehner (R). This certainly won't help his cause.

LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trouncing his primary rival, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), by 40 points, 53% to 13%. Richmond came in third in a seven-way primary in 2008. The winner of the primary will have a great shot to take down freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

Young Guns: The NRCC is adding/elevating 16 Republican candidates to the top level of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, bringing the total to 39, which just so happens to be the number of seat they need to flip to take back the House. They are: Rick Crawford (AR-01), David Harmer (CA-11), Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), Joe Heck (NV-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Robert Hurt (VA-05), Keith Fimian (VA-11), David McKinley (WV-01), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08), the only one who hasn't won the GOP nomination in their district yet. Notice Raul Labrador's name is missing from this list.

Daily Rundown: 6/11/10

CA-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the California Senate race, from Rasmussen, shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five-point lead over former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, 48% to 43%. In other news, Fiorina was caught on open-mic Thursday criticizing Meg Whitman's decision to go on Sean Hannity and making fun of Boxer's hair.

FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.

NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.

NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.

WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.

CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.

ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.

MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.

NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).

NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.

VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."

The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.

6/8 Primaries Wrap-Up

Last night was very important in offering us some insight into the mindset of GOP voters across the country, and will have large implications on many general election races. Also, many women did very well last night in both parties, and really have the chance to expand their numbers in congress and statehouses everywhere.

In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) withstood a $10 million barrage of attacks from outside labor groups and narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff.

Conventional wisdom was that Lincoln was a goner. But with the support of Arkansas heavyweight Bill Clinton, a strong electoral base in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts (which happened to be having special House elections that night), and a strong closing message ("I'd rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas"), she swam above the strong national anti-incumbent wave.

Looking forward to the general election, Lincoln will have an even greater challenge as she has to swing back to the right to face Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election. Early polling shows Boozman up by anywhere from 17 to 38 points. Election Frontier currently rates this: Lean Republican.

In California, GOP voters chose two female former CEOs, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, as their nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively. They will take on two veteran Democratic politicians, Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, in the general election. Now we'll get to see who California voters dislike more: CEOs or politicians.

The only thing I could learn about Maine gubernatorial race was that the Republican nominee, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R), was backed strongly by the local Tea Party movement. Score another win for them.

In Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) scored a major ideological victory last night in the GOP nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). It looked like Reid's only hope would be if GOP voters nominated Angle, given her extreme conservative views. And last night, he got his wish and now has a chance to win a reelection race that most thought was a lost cause.

Angry Nevada GOP voters showed that they don't care about general election viability, or at least aren't willing to compromise their conservative ideological purity to make the best long-term decision of who to nominate. And with Angle, they'll get what they voted for.

This is sure to be one of the nastiest, most expensive, heavily watched, overanalyzed, overpublicized races in the country. The winner of this race will no doubt be on the front page on the day after Election Day.

In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) all-but clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and should now start to look forward to the general election. Despite the (bizarre) barrage of attacks launched against her on all sides, Haley came out unscathed and will most likely be the next governor of the Palmetto state.

As First Read points out, Nikki's success may play a big role in the 2012 presidential primaries. Evey winner of the third-in-the-nation South Carolina Republican primary since 1980 has gone on to become the nominee.

"And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham's censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right."

For the Republican primaries in House races across the county, establishment-picked candidates fared reasonably well last night.

Establishment picks David Harmer (CA-11), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Scott Rigell (VA-02), and Robert Hurt (VA-05) all survived their contested primaries.

But a few insurgent candidates also pulled off wins last night. For instance, state Sen. Brad Zaun (R) whooped establishment favorite Jim Gibbons in Iowa's 3rd congressional district.

And Rep. Bob Inglis (R) was forced into a runoff against insurgent Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), and will probably lose due to his vote in favor of TARP.

CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Fiorina and Whitman Dominate

As expected, former CEOs Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman will head up the Republican ticket in California in the Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively.

In the Senate GOP primary, with 5 percent of precincts reporting, Fiorina leads former Rep. Tom Campbell 58% to 22%, while Assemblyman and Tea Party favorite Chuck DeVore only has 17%.

Fiorina will face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Whitman is ahead of state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 62% to 28%. Whitman starts off as the slight underdog against Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election.

Both Fiorina and Whitman have lent money to their own campaigns during the primary, and will almost certainly continue to have their wallets open for what should be two of the most expensive races in the country.

Daily Rundown: 6/8/10

CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is not waiting for Carly Fiorina (R) to officially win the Senate GOP primary tonight. Acknowledging Fiorina's fundraising prowess, Boxer told her supporters she had a goal of raising $200,000 by the time polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific time tonight.

DE-Sen: Vice President Joe Biden will come back to his home state to campaign for New Castle County executive Chris Coons (D) later this month. Biden had ignored the race since his son, Beau, had decided not to run for the seat. Coons faces a major uphill battle against Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate former governor who has high favorable ratings.

NC-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) with decent-sized leads over his two possible challengers. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 7 points and leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham by 10 points. Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll shows Burr with even larger leads, topping Marshall by 14 points and Cunningham by 12. The Democratic nominee will be decided by a June 22 runoff election.

OH-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. John Kasich (R) leading Gov. Ted Strickland 47% to 42%. Their poll from last month had Kasich leading by only one point.

PA-Gov: Here's yet another poll from Rasmussen. This one finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) way ahead of Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D), 49% to 33%.

SC-Gov: For once, Nikki Haley is getting a respite from attacks. Attorney General Henry McMaster (R) is going after Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in a new ad, calling him "too weak to be governor" and attacking him for his vote in favor of TARP. Polls have shown McMaster and Barrett to be deadlocked for second place, and whoever finishes in second will most likely join Haley in a runoff.

FL-24: Mike Huckabee endorsed former Winter Park County Commissioner Karen Diebel (R) yesterday to take on freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). Diebel has already been endorsed by former Rep. Tom Tancredo and Rep. Brian Bilbray. She will face off against steakhouse chain owner Craig Miller (R) in the GOP primary, who can self-fund his campaign.

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) is suing his GOP runoff rival, former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R), "with a defamation suit again alleging that Johnson has lodged a series of false attacks against him." Johnson came out with an ad last week accusing D'Annunzio of a “life of drugs, crime and time served in prison” and refusing to pay child support, all of which was confirmed by an article from the Charlotte Observer. The runoff is on June 22.

VA-05: Here's some last-minute shenanigans. Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), viewed as the underdog going into today's primary, released an 11th hour robo-call with former Rep. Virgil Goode (R) saying "Jim McKelvey wouldn't care if he went to Washington and made a bunch of people mad." State Sen. Robert Hurt (R), the establishment favorite in the race, accused the message of being misleading, as Goode hadn't endorsed McKelvey.

June 8 Primaries: What to Watch For

Tomorrow night, the Boston Celtics will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers coming off of an important Game 2 victory in L.A. , where the Lakers will try to shut down the virtually unstoppable Ray Allen.

And, oh yeah, voters in eleven states will go to the polls to select their party's nominees. This is sure to be the biggest primary night so far, so here's the rundown on what to keep your eye on in the highest profile races of the night:

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) will face off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) in a runoff election in will be one of the most watched races of the night. Lincoln edged out Halter 45% to 43% in the first round of voting, but the word on the ground is that Halter's supporters are more likely to show up to the polls in what is expected to be a very low turnout event. Bill Clinton came to his home state to stump for Lincoln, who has tried to paint herself as more liberal since the first round of voting. Unions have spent tens of millions of dollars on Lincoln attack ads on behalf of Halter, who is more liberal than Lincoln. I'm giving the edge to Halter in this one.

AR-01: Chad Causey (D), the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, is in a runoff against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), who is more conservative. Causey has even claimed that Woolridge might defect to the GOP if elected. Woolridge led Causey in the first round of voting 38% to 27%, but Causey appears to have all the momentum in the race and can boast endorsements from Bill Clinton and two of his former rivals. With low turnout and a lack of public polling data, this race is completely up in the air.

AR-02: Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) will face state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) in a runoff. Elliott, who is trying to become the state's first black congresswoman, led Wills 40% t0 28% in the first round. The more moderate Wills, feeling the need to make up that ground, attacked Elliott as "too liberal" for the district. Many of Elliott's supporters thought that "too liberal" was code for "too black" in a state with significant racial tensions.

CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) looks ready to claim the GOP nomination after a hard-fought battle with former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R). Campbell ran ahead of Fiorina in early polling, but fizzled as he ran out of money towards the end. Campbell's closing argument is that he has a better shot of beating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, but it hasn't seemed to resonate with GOP voters. Fiorina has consistently led Campbell by 15 points or more in each poll released in the last two weeks. DeVore, the Tea Party favorite in the race, failed to catch on and has remained quietly in third place.

CA-Gov: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), after faltering a bit early last month, is poised to win the GOP nomination over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R). This race was absurdly expensive and negative, but the last six polls have shown Whitman up by more than 20 points, meaning she won the ad and message war. Whitman, assuming she wins, will take on Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election, who has built up a sizable campaign warchest of his own.

CA-11: Three Republicans are jockeying to take on vulnerable sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in the general election. Attorney David Harmer, who is known for his better-than-expected performance in the CA-10 special election last year, looks like the establishment choice and can boast an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Also running are self-funding vineyard owner Brad Goehring--famous for joking about "hunting liberals"--and Elizabeth Emken, a former VP of "Autism Speaks" who was endorsed by Rick Santorum (of all people).

IA-Gov: Former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R), the establishment favorite, has a large lead over his two rivals, conservative favorite Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts, according to recent polling. Vander Plaats, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and evangelical leader James Dobson, has to hope for an anti-establishment furor and a surge of conservative and Tea Party activists at the polls to make this race close. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have weighed in on behalf of Branstad, a tactically safe move for the two likely 2012 presidential contenders in this important first-in-the-nation caucus state.

IA-03: In the competitive 3rd district, Jim Gibbons, a financial analyst and former Iowa State wrestling coach, looks to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Rep. Leonard Boswell (D). Gibbons is the NRCC favorite in the race and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. His biggest competition for the nomination comes state Sen. Brad Zaun. Gibbons also has to get past Tea Party favorite Dave Funk and four other Republicans. The crowded field may prevent anyone from getting 35%, which is needed to clinch the nomination. If no one reaches that number, the nominee will be decided by party insiders at a special convention soon after.

ME-Gov: This race has been ignored by pretty much everyone. The Democratic and Republican primaries for this race are crowded with over a dozen no-name candidates who all failed to even reach 20% in a recent poll. And 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans were undecided as of a week before the primary. State Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be the slight frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and business Les Otten appears to have the edge for the GOP nod, but the race is so unsettled that anything could happen.

NV-Sen: This is another one of the marquee races of the night, which is to be expected given that the winner of the GOP will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former state GOP chair and casino executive Sue Lowden was the early favorite in the race, but made a series of gaffes including her idea of bartering chickens for medical care and her (alleged) use of an illegally donated RV on the campaign trail. This created an opening for ultra-conservative former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is backed by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth. Angle has recently taken the lead in the polls, and has come under fire from Lowden. Businessman Danny Tarkanian, the most electable Republican who has quietly risen in the polls to tie Lowden, is hoping to be the beneficiary of all the mudslinging between Lowden and Angle and sneak a win tomorrow night.

NV-Gov: Former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) will almost definitely unseat scandal plagued Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) in tomorrow's primary. Sandoval, who is obviously a much stronger general election candidate than Gibbons, will face Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (Harry's son) in the fall. On a side note, if Sandoval is nominated, it will mean that two Latino candidates have been nominated in southwestern states (Susana Martinez is the GOP nominee in New Mexico). Perhaps this is a sign that the GOP is starting the realize the importance of the Latino vote in that region?

NJ-03: Since Chris Christie unseated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in 2009, New Jersey Republicans have been bullish about their prospects to unseat freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in 2010. The NRCC's favored candidate is former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), who has run a lackluster campaign so far. Runyan, who is pro-choice, is getting a challenge to his right from Justin Murphy (R), a conservative activist who ran in the GOP primary in 2008. Despite Runyan's slow start, he should win the nomination with some ease. But if Murphy riles up enough conservative support, he could score an upset which would all but ruin the GOP's chances of taking back the seat.

SC-Gov: What a weird race its been. State Rep. Nikki Haley became the frontrunner about a month ago, and earned the endorsements of Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and the Mark Sanford political machine. Then she was accused of having an extra-marital affair by two separate men, neither of which was ever proven. Then, she was called a "raghead" by a fellow Republican because of her Indian descent. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is currently in fourth place in the polls, just touted the results of a polygraph test which "proved" he didn't start any of the affairs rumors, and asked Haley to take a test herself on the validity of the claims. Yet despite all of the ridiculous attacks lobbed against her and the three-ring circus of a primary she's gone through, Haley still leads the pack by a significant margin. But with four serious candidates in the race, it looks like Haley may fall short of 50% and be forced into a runoff with either Rep. Gresham Barrett or Attorney General Henry McMaster.

In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) appears to have a slight advantage over state school Superintendent Jim Rex (D). State Sen. Robert Ford, who is black, is also running and has been in the double digits in some polls, meaning a runoff is possible.

SD-AL: Three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to take on the vulnerable Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) is probably the favorite given his superior name recognition, but has so far has been a mediocre candidate with lackluster fundraising. He'll face state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem, who have both gone on the air ahead of tomorrow's primary and seem to have legitimate shots at winning.

VA-02: Auto executive Scott Rigell (R) is the NRCC favorite in this race. He's a member of their "Young Guns" recruitment program, has a ton of money to self-fund his candidacy, and has been endorsed by Gov. Bob McConnell, Minority Leader John Boehner, and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. But that doesn't mean he's going to win. His two top rivals, Iraq War veteran Bert Mizusawa and Tea Party favorite businessman Ben Loyola, have been aggressive fundraisers and have attacked Rigell for his $1,000 campaign donation to Barack Obama in 2008. Still, Rigell is the heavy favorite to win this one, but probably by a smaller margin than you might think. The winner will take on freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in the general election.

VA-05: The NRCC likes state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in this primary, but he certainly is not well-liked by the conservative wing of the party. With his vote for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) tax-increasing 2004 state budget (h/t Swing State Project), he made a lot of enemies in the party. But the conservative wing failed to settle on one candidate, and their vote share will probably be divided between Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, teacher Feda Morton, real estate developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, and veteran Michael McPadden--allowing Hurt to win the nomination.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who ran for the seat in 2008, is facing off against Fairfax Country Supervisor Pat Herrity (R) for the GOP nomination to take on freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in this suburban D.C. district. Fimian has outraised Herrity, but GOP voters may go for the fresh face this time and pick Herrity to face Connolly, who has a large target on his back.

Poll: Voters Think Fiorina's More Electable

Now, I'm getting pretty tired of reporting about polls showing Carly Fiorina (R) and Meg Whitman (R) blowing away their competition in their respective primaries ahead of Tuesday's vote, but this one actually has some news.

A Field poll released today shows that California GOP voters think Fiorina is the best equipped candidate to beat Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election. 42% of voters think Fiorina has the best shot winning in the fall, compared with 22% for former Rep. Tom Campbell and 12% for Assemblyman Chuck DeVore.

This comes as a blow to the Campbell campaign, whose closing argument has been that he is the most electable candidate of the three. It doesn't appear to be working.

The poll also found Fiorina leading Campbell by 15 points, a similar margin to what other recent polls have found.

CA: Fiorina and Whitman Pull Away

A new Problosky Research tracking poll finds both former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in great positions to win the GOP's nomination in their respective races.

In the GOP Senate primary, Fiorina leads former Rep. Tom Campbell 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore picking up 12%. Other polls have found Fiorina with similar leads.

Fiorina has a massive financial edge and is flooding the airwaves less than a week out before the primary. Campbell is relying on a single ad touting his electability to close the gap.

In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Whitman leads state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 48% to 20%. All signs point to a blow out in this race.

Daily Rundown: 6/3/10

CA-Sen: Well, that was quick. Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) will go back up on the air Friday, running a commercial touting that he will be the GOP's best shot at taking down Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). He cites a recent LA Times poll showing him up 7 points over Boxer, while Carly Fiorina loses by 6 points. Not a bad closing sell, but it may not be enough to overcome Fiorina's recent surge in the polls and massive financial advantage.

CO-Sen: It looks like the Obama administration tried to meddle in the Colorado Democratic Senate primary too. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs released a statement this morning admitting that deputy chief of staff Jim Messina called former state House Speak Andrew Romanoff to see if he was still interested in a job he applied for during the presidential transition (at USAID) to avoid a primary with Sen. Michael Bennet (D), who has the backing of the administration. Romanoff released a statement saying that no job was formally offered, but claimed that they inquired about his interest in two more administration jobs.

Now, this may all be inside baseball and may have no impact on voters, but it is still very embarrassing for the Obama administration. This follows a similar ploy in Pennsylvania to get Rep. Joe Sestak (D) to drop his primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (D), in which the administration used Bill Clinton as a go-between for an offer of an unpaid, informal advisory position. Maybe this is a sign that the president should stop meddling in its party's primaries?

CT-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 23 points, 56% to 33%. This is a huge change from their previous poll that had Blumenthal up 3, which was taken in the midst of his misstatements on his service.

NV-Sen: A new Suffolk poll shows former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle taking the lead in the GOP primary to take on Sen. Harry Reid (D), confirming her late surge. Angle takes 33%, compared with 26% for real estate developer Danny Tarkanian and 25% for casino executive and former state GOP chair Sue Lowden, whose campaign has been dogged by a series of mini-scandals in recent weeks. Angle is considered to be the weakest general election candidate against Reid.

FL-Gov: Bud Chiles, the son of former Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, has announced that he will run for governor as an independent, a la Charlie Crist. This comes as bad news to Democrats, as Chiles will probably siphon votes away from state CFO Alex Sink (D), who already was facing an uphill battle against likely GOP nominee Attorney General Bill McCollum.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Terry Branstad's (R) prospects still look pretty good in the general election against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D). A PPP poll has him up 15 points over Culver, 52% to 37%. But Branstad still has to get through the Republican primary, which has become more competitive that expected. Evangelical leader James Dobson just threw his support behind Branstad's chief rival, businessman and activist Bob Vander Plaats (R). GOP voters will choose their nominee on Tuesday.

MI-Gov: A lot of polls today. This one, from EPIC-MRA, shows Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) leading the pack in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Hoekstra takes 30%, compared with 18% for Attorney General Mix Cox, 17% for businessman Rick Snyder (who is thought to be the strongest general election candidate), and 16% for Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. On the Democratic side it still looks pretty close, with state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) leading Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) 29% to 23%.

NV-Gov: That same Suffolk poll also tested the GOP gubernatorial primary, between former federal judge Brian Sandoval, incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons, and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montadon. The poll finds Sandoval with a 22-point lead over Gibbons, 47% to 25%. Montadon comes away with 10%. The primary is on Tuesday.

SC-Gov: Oy vey. Another man has come forward and claimed that he had an "inappropriate sexual encounter" with gubernatorial hopeful state Rep. Nikki Haley (R). Instead of a blogger this time, it's a campaign aide to one of Haley's rivals, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R). Haley has once again denied the allegations and accused Bauer of being behind this 11th hour attack. Whether these claims actually have merit or are just despicable campaign tactics, the story might start to stick with South Carolina GOP voters. We'll see if it affects their votes come Tuesday--but somehow I think it won't.

HI-01: Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who is running for governor, is the latest Hawaii Democrat to endorse state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) in the Democratic primary for his old seat. Since former Rep. Ed Case (D) decided not to make a run for the nomination, Hanabusa has turned into the presumptive nominee to take on Rep. Charles Djou (R) in November.

Daily Rundown: 6/2/10

CA-Sen: Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) is pulling his television ads a week out from the primary, highlighting his financial disadvantage against his rival, businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Campbell is going almost completely dark, relying only on internet ads and robocalls to reach out to Republican voters. Fiorina, who already has a sizable lead in the polls, has been spending millions of her own cash on the race and now will have the California airwaves to herself heading into the primary.

KY-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 8 points, 49% to 41%. This is a drastic change from their poll released right after the primary, which had Paul up 25.

AL-Gov: Looks like we may be heading towards a recount in the GOP primary, as state Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James are both lawyering up. The Secretary of State has yet to call declare who will take on former state Sen. Bradley Byrne in the runoff, but as of now Bentley leads James by 208 votes.

IA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows frontrunner former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) might not have such an easy time in next week's GOP primary. He only leads businessman Bob Vander Plaats by 15 points, 46-31. Brandstad would be the strongest general election candidate against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D).

ME-Gov: A new Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll shows a wide-open race for both parties in next week's gubernatorial primary. 62% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans are still undecided. On the Democratic side, state Sen. President Libby Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe appear to be slightly ahead of the pack. On the Republican side, businessman Les Otten holds a 7-point lead over the competition. But with none of the candidates in either race topping 20% and such a high number of undecideds, don't read too much into these numbers.

MI-Gov: A new PPP poll shows businessman Rick Snyder to be the strongest general election candidate for the GOP. He leads Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) by 16 points and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by 20. The other Republican candidates still poll ahead of Bernero and Dillon, but by much smaller margins.

AR-01: Bill Clinton is backing Chad Causey (D), retiring Rep. Marion Berry's chief of staff, in the June 8 primary runoff. Causey appears to be picking up momentum in his race against former state Sen. Tim Woolridge (D), the more conservative Democrat in the race who finished ahead of Causey in the first round of voting.

NC-08: Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has backed out of a televised debate against runoff opponent Harold Johnson (R), claiming there's been a "collaboration between the Harold Johnson campaign and the news media to use partial truth, innuendo and accusations to unfairly smear me." D'Annunzio has been accused of drug use, criminal activity, and claiming that he is a prophet; and has lost nearly all support he had from the GOP and outside groups.

TN-08: Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott is raising money for Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn in the GOP primary, even as the GOP establishment is actively backing gospel singer Stephen Fincher. Physician Ron Kirkland, who can self-fund his campaign, is also running in the primary. The winner will face state Sen. Roy Herron (D) in the general election.

WA-03: State Sen. Craig Pridemore dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Brian Baird (D) yesterday, citing fundraising problems, and backed former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D). The more moderate Heck now seems to have the nomination all locked up.

What's Happening in California?

All eyes are on California for the next big set of primaries, which will take place on June 8.

In the Senate Republican primary, it's a three-way race between former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R), former Rep. Tom Campbell (R), and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R).

Fiorina was initially considered to be the front-runner, as she had the ability to loan herself millions of dollars in one of the most expensive media market states in the country.

But Campbell started to take a small lead in the polls in early May. Then his money started to dry up, and Fiorina continued to flood the airwaves with negative spots against him, and the polls began to tighten up.

On May 21, a Research 2000 poll found Campbell up by 15, which had been fairly consistent with previous polls (giving Campbell a slightly bigger lead). Three days later, a Survey USA poll found Fiorina up by 23. Wait, what?

That's a huge gap between those two polls: 38 points. Conventional wisdom led everyone to believe that the Survey USA poll was the outlier. But two polls since then have confirmed Fiorina's dramatic rise in support, making Research 2000 the outlier.

And DeVore, the most conservative one in the race, has consistently been polling around 15 points throughout all the drama.

So I'm still not completely convinced that Fiorina is really suddenly up by 20, but it does appear that she has the edge over Campbell two weeks out. The winner will face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election.

Meanwhile, in the less exciting but decidedly more negative governor's race, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R)--after seeing her support dip in the same outlier Research 2000 poll--has a strong 20-point lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), who is more conservative.

Whitman has been launching self-funded attack ads against Poizner, who is strapped for cash. Polls show that either candidate will be competitive with former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election.