What's Happening in California?

All eyes are on California for the next big set of primaries, which will take place on June 8.

In the Senate Republican primary, it's a three-way race between former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R), former Rep. Tom Campbell (R), and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R).

Fiorina was initially considered to be the front-runner, as she had the ability to loan herself millions of dollars in one of the most expensive media market states in the country.

But Campbell started to take a small lead in the polls in early May. Then his money started to dry up, and Fiorina continued to flood the airwaves with negative spots against him, and the polls began to tighten up.

On May 21, a Research 2000 poll found Campbell up by 15, which had been fairly consistent with previous polls (giving Campbell a slightly bigger lead). Three days later, a Survey USA poll found Fiorina up by 23. Wait, what?

That's a huge gap between those two polls: 38 points. Conventional wisdom led everyone to believe that the Survey USA poll was the outlier. But two polls since then have confirmed Fiorina's dramatic rise in support, making Research 2000 the outlier.

And DeVore, the most conservative one in the race, has consistently been polling around 15 points throughout all the drama.

So I'm still not completely convinced that Fiorina is really suddenly up by 20, but it does appear that she has the edge over Campbell two weeks out. The winner will face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election.

Meanwhile, in the less exciting but decidedly more negative governor's race, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R)--after seeing her support dip in the same outlier Research 2000 poll--has a strong 20-point lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R), who is more conservative.

Whitman has been launching self-funded attack ads against Poizner, who is strapped for cash. Polls show that either candidate will be competitive with former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in the general election.