Primary in Idaho Today

When you think of politically competitive states, Idaho usually doesn't come to mind. But today Idahoans are taking part in a very unusual House race in the state's 1st district.

Rep. Walt Minnick (D)--that's right, a Democrat in Idaho--was elected in 2008 over then-Rep. Bill Sali (R), who was constantly shrouded in gaffes, misstatements, and controversies. Since being elected, Minnick has been one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, even to the point of getting endorsed by the Tea Party Express! But local Idaho Tea Party members have largely ignored this shocking endorsement, and have split between the two leading Republicans vying for the nomination.

Vaughn Ward (R), an Iraq War veteran and former McCain campaign official, looked to be the early frontrunner for the nomination. He was added to the National Republican Campaign Committee's (NRCC) "Young Guns" program and was endorsed both by John McCain and Sarah Palin. But Ward proved be far less adept a candidate than expected. First, he argued that the 17th amendment--which gives voters the right to elect their own senators--should be repealed. Then, he was caught plagiarizing Barack Obama's 2004 speech to the Democratic National Convention. He also claimed in a debate that Puerto Rico was a country, and when corrected said that he "didn't care what it is."

These gaffes have caused many Idaho Republicans--and every major Idaho newspaper--to jump ship and support state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), who, coincidentally, is Puerto Rican. Labrador, who is running as an outsider, seems to have all of the momentum going into the primary. But at the same time, he has been at a huge financial disadvantage.

A new Mason-Dixon poll showed Ward up 31% to 28% over Labrador, which is a 15-point bump for Labrador from last poll, and there is still a ton of undecideds. But then again, House district polling is notoriously bad.

Perhaps Sarah Palin's recent visit will be just enough for Vaughn to hold off Labrador, but he may find that his recent gaffes were responsible for flipping those undecideds over to Labrador. Given these recent mistakes, Labrador seems like the better general election candidate.

But regardless of who wins tonight, the November election is sure to be an unusual one, with candidates on both sides of the aisle receiving support from the Tea Party.