Daily Rundown: 7/22/10

AK-Sen: A new Ivan Moore Research poll of the Alaska GOP Senate primary finds Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) crushing challenger Joe Miller (R) 62% to 30%. Miller, of course, was endorsed by Sarah Palin last month and also has the backing of the Tea Party Express--but he hasn't shown the kind of fundraising or organizational prowess that he would need to take down an entrenched incumbent like Murkowski.

FL-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) leading billionaire Jeff Greene (D) by just 3 points in the Senate Democratic primary, 28% to 25%--but 37% of the Democratic electorate remains undecided. Rasmussen is out with some new general election numbers as well. When Meek is the Democrat in the race, Marco Rubio (R) leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I) 35% to 33%, with Meek back at 20%. With Greene in the race, Crist leads Rubio 36% to 34% and Greene takes 19%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Mining owner company John Raese (R) announced that he'll be running for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) Senate seat this November. Raese, who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate against Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) in 1984 and again against Byrd in 2006, seemed to be the West Virginia GOP's next pick after Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) decided to sit this one out--probably because he can self-fund a large part of his campaign. State Sen. Clark Barnes (R) is also expected to get in the race and former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) announced she won't run.

AR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Mike Beebe (D) leading former state Sen. Jim Keet (R) by only 10 points, 50% to 40%. Their June poll of the race showed Beebe up by 24 points, and other public polling has shown mixed results. Beebe was thought be one of the few safe Democratic incumbents this cycle, given his sky-high approval ratings (even in this economy). We'll see if Keet has what it takes to give him a run for his money.

CO-Gov: Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) issued an ultimatum to the two current Republican gubernatorial candidates: get out of the race by Monday at noon or there'll be trouble. More specifically, he said he'll run for governor on the American Constitution Party line. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R)--the GOP frontrunner until it came to light that he had plagiarized several speeches weeks ago--has refused to drop out of the race. The same goes for businessman Dan Maes (R), who has been a weak candidate thus far and is viewed by both sides as unelectable in the general election.

Said Tancredo: "This is a disaster in the making ere. We have this opportunity and we're blowing it. The two candidates we have now are unelectable. One is essentially a fraud and another is experiencing all types of ethical problems. It's just ridiculous. This is unacceptable." He also added that if McInnis or Maes lead Hickenlooper in public polling the day after the primary (August 11), then he would drop out.

Democrats have to hope that Tancredo follows through on his threat, as he would split Republican votes with either McInnis or Maes and allow Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) to cruise to victory in the general election.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Rick Scott (R) leading state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by 14 points in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary, 43% to 29%. The Election Frontier polling average has the self-funding Scott up by 10.7 points.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen is the first pollster after the primary to test general election match-ups in the Georgia gubernatorial race. Former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) bests former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) by 6 points, 49% to 43%. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) edges Barnes by only one point, 45% to 44%.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) crushing former Rep. Rick Lazio (R), 58% to 27%.

VA-09: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Rick Boucher (D) leading state House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R) by 13 points, 52% to 39%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 6/29/10

FL-Sen: The Naples News reports that two donors who gave to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign back when he was a Republican are filing "a class-action lawsuit on behalf of all contributors who are demanding their money back after Crist announced he’d run as an Independent."

LA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 18 points, 53% to 35%. Two weeks ago, PPP found Vitter's lead to be in single digits but Magellan Strategies found Vitter up by 20 points.

WI-Sen: A new poll from PPP finds little-known businessman Ron Johnson (R) coming within two points of Sen. Russ Feingold (D). This confirms the results of an earlier Rasmussen survey which found Feingold up by only one. What's more troubling for Feingold is that 62% of Wisconsin voters don't know enough about Johnson to form an opinion of him. Pollster Tom Jensen notes: "A fresher face may be helpful for Republicans as they try to pull off the upset in this race." If Johnson turns out to be a solid candidate and introduces himself well to voters in the state, he could have a real shot at unseating Feingold.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is on the defensive for an ad he released three months ago, which touts his military service. The ad claims: “Robert Bentley put himself through medical school, served his country and healed troops wounded in Vietnam.” But much like Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), Bentley was a Vietnam-era veteran, not a Vietnam veteran. He served in a hospital on American soil. Meanwhile, Bentley is up with an internal poll showing him with a 19-point lead over former two-year college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R)--who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting--in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Yeah, right.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still has a very comfortable lead over his likely rival, former Rep. Rick Lazio (R). Cuomo leads Lazio 55% to 28%, and even does well among Republicans.

OH-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll has some good news and bad news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The good news is that he leads his rival, former Rep. John Kasich (R), by five points. The bad news is that he doesn't even reach the 45% mark, and 52% of Ohioans don't know enough about Kasich to form an opinion of him, meaning his numbers have room to grow. Meanwhile, a new PPP poll finds Kasich leading Strickland 43% to 41%.

RI-Gov: The Rhode Island Democratic Party endorsed state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) over Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Polls have shown Caprio to be a more formidable general election candidate than Lynch.

ID-01: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in another move that is sure to boost his conservative bona fides in one of the most conservative districts in the country. Minnick has previously been the only Democrat endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Meanwhile, his opponent, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), has been trying to get back on good terms with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), who he bad-mouthed by name in the GOP primary against NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward (R). Labrador still has not been added to the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program. "I understand I cannot win without their help," Labrador said of the NRCC. "I need the entire party to be united behind me against a Democrat who can self-fund in the millions of dollars."

MI-03: The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has an astonishingly good track record for endorsements so far this cycle, is endorsing 29-year old state Rep. Justin Amash (R) in this open seat race. Amash, who is seen as the favorite among Tea Party activists, faces former Kent County Commission Chair Steve Heacock (R) in the GOP primary, who has been endorsed by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R) and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce.

RI-01: The Rhode Island Democratic Party officially endorsed Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) for the seat being vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D). The state party passed over its former chairman, Bill Lynch (D), and state Rep. David Segal (D)--who are also running in the primary.

WV-01: Here's some intra-party drama. Former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) is starting up a PAC against the state senator who ousted Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) in the Democratic primary called "Citizens Who Refuse to Vote for Mike Oliverio." Hechler and Oliverio have some bad blood from when they previously ran against each other in a primary for Secretary of State. Hechler said that he didn't care about hurting a fellow Democrat's chances at winning the general election because “Oliverio, through his record, has shown he is further to the right of most Republicans.”

Daily Rundown: 6/4/10

IN-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll shows former Sen. Dan Coats (R) comfortably ahead of Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), 47% to 33%. This is similar to a poll released by them about a month ago, which had Coats up by 15 points. Meanwhile, Indiana Democrats are trying to tie Coats to the gulf coast oil leak, releasing a web video asking: "What do BP & Halliburton have in common? They both share responsibility for the worst environmental disaster in US history ... and they are both clients of Dan Coats' lobbying firm. ... In the Senate, he'd answer to them ... not you."

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) retaking the lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D), 45% to 38%. A Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago showed Sestak up four points, which the pollster attributed to a post-primary bump.

NY-Gov: Former Rep. Rick Lazio won the endorsement of the state Republican Party this week to take on heavy favorite Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) in the general election. State GOP chairman Ed Cox's pick for the nomination was Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, who he got to switch parties to run for governor as a Republican. Lazio's nomination was a huge embarrassment to Cox, who's leadership is now coming under fire. There has even been talk of replacing him as the chairmen after he failed to find a good candidate to put up against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), oversaw two crushing special election defeats, and failed to avoid House GOP primary fights.

SC-Gov: Gubernatorial candidate state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) has said that she would resign as governor if the allegations of her marital infidelity turn out to be true. Meanwhile, she's getting some last-minute support from Sarah Palin who recorded a robo-call on her behalf. And Haley, who is Indian-American, also become the target of some racial slurs from state Sen. Jake Knotts, who supports Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's campaign. Said Knotts: "We already got one raghead in the White House, we don’t need a raghead in the governor’s mansion." Yikes.

ID-01: State Rep. Raul Labrador, who defeated NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward in the May 25 primary, needs some help. His campaign is basically broke and has lost much of its staff, and his still not won over the full-fledged support of the NRCC. Mr. Labrador's going to Washington to try to mend some fences with (and get some money from) the NRCC, but don't expect him to be added to their "Young Guns" recruitment program.

NC-08: Former broadcaster Harold Johnson (R) is attacking his runoff rival, businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R), with a new radio ad accusing his opponent of living a "life of drugs, crime and time served in prison." It later adds, "The troubles of the country will only be made worse by a man with such a troubled past." With all of these accusations appearing to be true, I'd peg Johnson as the heavy favorite to win the June 22 runoff.

OH-18: Agriculture Commissioner Fred Dailey conceded the GOP nomination to state Sen. Bob Gibbs today. Dailey ran against Rep. Zack Space (D) in 2008, and lost to Gibbs in last month's primary by 156 votes--triggering an automatic recount. Space is widely considered to be vulnerable this cycle, and has been placed on the DCCC's Frontline defense program. I currently rate the race as: Lean Democrat.