Kansas, Michigan & Missouri Primaries Wrap-Up

KS-Sen: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) narrowly defeated Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 50% to 45% last night, and will almost certainly become the state's next senator. This comes as another blow to Sarah Palin, who backed Tiahrt in the primary. Both Republican congressmen were trying to paint the other one as moderate, but by national standards, both of these men are highly conservative--and Moran, like Sam Brownback before him, will provide a consistent Republican vote in the Senate.

KS-01: In the primary to replace Moran, state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R) won the GOP nomination by 10 points, which means--given the heavy Republican tilt of the district--that he will be the next congressman from this district.

KS-03: In the only competitive district in the state, state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) defeated former state Rep. Patricia Lightner (R) 45% to 37%. He will go on to face nurse Stephene Moore (D), the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D). Current rating: Lean Republican.

KS-04: In the GOP race to replace Tiahrt, former RNC Committeeman Mike Pompeo (R) defeated moderate and Planned Parenthood-endorsee state Sen. Jean Schodorf (R), 39% to 24%. He will face a slightly challenging Democratic opponent in state Rep. Ray Goyle (D), who has proven his fundraising prowess, but he's a heavy favorite to win.

MI-Gov: Former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R), a moderate who reached out to independents and Democrats describing himself as "one tough nerd," defeated Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) and Attorney General Mike Cox (R), 36% to 27% to 23%. While Hoekstra and Cox were fighting for the conservative/Tea Party vote, Snyder seemed to sneak by in the center. On the Democratic side, it looks like big labor showed up to support their horse in the race, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D). The progressive populist Bernero defeated state House Speaker Andy Dillon, a pro-life moderate, by an astounding 59% to 41% margin. While Snyder's victory in the GOP primary may be bad news for conservatives, it is even worse news for Democrats, as his moderate nature will make it almost impossible for Bernero to win in what was already going to be a tough race for any Democrat after the unpopular tenure of sitting Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D). Current rating: Likely Republican.

MI-01: We still don't know who won this one. With 100% of precincts reporting, surgeon Dan Benishek (R) currently leads state Sen. Jason Allen (R) by just 12 (!) votes, 27,070 to 27,058. Definitely expect a recount here. The eventual winner will go on to face state Rep. Gary McDowell (D). Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-02: In the race to replace the soon-to-be-unemployed Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), we also don't know won. With all of the precincts in, former state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) leads former NFL player Jay Riemersma (R) by 660 votes. AP hasn't called the race yet, but it's hard to see Riemersma making up that ground in a recount.

MI-03: In the only slightly competitive 3rd district, state Rep. Justin Amash (R)--who had the backing of the Club for Growth--won the GOP primary over the more moderate state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R). Attorney Pat Miles (D) , who has the ability to partially self-fund his candidacy, won the Democratic nod.

MI-07: Former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) defeated attorney and Iraq War veteran Brian Rooney (R) in the Republican nomination, 58% to 32%. Walberg will have a clear chance to get revenge this year, as he was ousted by now-Rep. Mark Schauer (D) in 2008. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-09: Former State Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R) crushed former Oakland County GOP chair Paul Welday (R)--the NRCC's pick in the race--42% to 28%. He'll face freshman Rep. Gary Peters (D) in the general election. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

MI-13: State Sen. Hansen Clarke (D) ousted seven-term incumbent Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) in the Democratic primary last night, 47% to 41%. Kilpatrick was hurt by defending her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D), as he withstood multiple criminal counts (which he was later convicted of). Clarke is a shoo-in to win the general election in this dark blue district.

MO-Sen: The Missouri Senate race begins in earnest today, as Rep. Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) easily defeated their token primary opposition. State Sen. Chuck Purgason (R), who made some noise late in the game in the GOP primary, got crushed 71% to 13%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MO-03: Ed Martin (R), former Gov. Matt Blunt's (R) chief of staff, easily defeated Rusty Wallace (R) 63% to 21%. He'll have an uphill (but not an impossible) climb against Rep. Russ Carnahan (D).

MO-04: Former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) beat state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R) 41% to 30%, and will now take on longtime Rep. Ike Skelton (D), the chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

MO-07: In the race to replace Roy Blunt, auctioneer Billy Long (R) overcame the candidacies of several members of the state legislature to win the Republican nomination in the 7th district. He will cruise to victory in the general election in this heavily Republican district.

Daily Rundown: 6/29/10

FL-Sen: The Naples News reports that two donors who gave to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign back when he was a Republican are filing "a class-action lawsuit on behalf of all contributors who are demanding their money back after Crist announced he’d run as an Independent."

LA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 18 points, 53% to 35%. Two weeks ago, PPP found Vitter's lead to be in single digits but Magellan Strategies found Vitter up by 20 points.

WI-Sen: A new poll from PPP finds little-known businessman Ron Johnson (R) coming within two points of Sen. Russ Feingold (D). This confirms the results of an earlier Rasmussen survey which found Feingold up by only one. What's more troubling for Feingold is that 62% of Wisconsin voters don't know enough about Johnson to form an opinion of him. Pollster Tom Jensen notes: "A fresher face may be helpful for Republicans as they try to pull off the upset in this race." If Johnson turns out to be a solid candidate and introduces himself well to voters in the state, he could have a real shot at unseating Feingold.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is on the defensive for an ad he released three months ago, which touts his military service. The ad claims: “Robert Bentley put himself through medical school, served his country and healed troops wounded in Vietnam.” But much like Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), Bentley was a Vietnam-era veteran, not a Vietnam veteran. He served in a hospital on American soil. Meanwhile, Bentley is up with an internal poll showing him with a 19-point lead over former two-year college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R)--who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting--in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Yeah, right.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still has a very comfortable lead over his likely rival, former Rep. Rick Lazio (R). Cuomo leads Lazio 55% to 28%, and even does well among Republicans.

OH-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll has some good news and bad news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The good news is that he leads his rival, former Rep. John Kasich (R), by five points. The bad news is that he doesn't even reach the 45% mark, and 52% of Ohioans don't know enough about Kasich to form an opinion of him, meaning his numbers have room to grow. Meanwhile, a new PPP poll finds Kasich leading Strickland 43% to 41%.

RI-Gov: The Rhode Island Democratic Party endorsed state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) over Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Polls have shown Caprio to be a more formidable general election candidate than Lynch.

ID-01: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in another move that is sure to boost his conservative bona fides in one of the most conservative districts in the country. Minnick has previously been the only Democrat endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Meanwhile, his opponent, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), has been trying to get back on good terms with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), who he bad-mouthed by name in the GOP primary against NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward (R). Labrador still has not been added to the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program. "I understand I cannot win without their help," Labrador said of the NRCC. "I need the entire party to be united behind me against a Democrat who can self-fund in the millions of dollars."

MI-03: The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has an astonishingly good track record for endorsements so far this cycle, is endorsing 29-year old state Rep. Justin Amash (R) in this open seat race. Amash, who is seen as the favorite among Tea Party activists, faces former Kent County Commission Chair Steve Heacock (R) in the GOP primary, who has been endorsed by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R) and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce.

RI-01: The Rhode Island Democratic Party officially endorsed Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) for the seat being vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D). The state party passed over its former chairman, Bill Lynch (D), and state Rep. David Segal (D)--who are also running in the primary.

WV-01: Here's some intra-party drama. Former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) is starting up a PAC against the state senator who ousted Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) in the Democratic primary called "Citizens Who Refuse to Vote for Mike Oliverio." Hechler and Oliverio have some bad blood from when they previously ran against each other in a primary for Secretary of State. Hechler said that he didn't care about hurting a fellow Democrat's chances at winning the general election because “Oliverio, through his record, has shown he is further to the right of most Republicans.”