Daily Rundown: 8/4/10

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Linda McMahon (R) closing the gap a bit on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), trailing him by only 10 points, 50% to 40%. Their poll from last month found Blumenthal leading McMahon by 13 points. In the GOP primary (which is on Tuesday), McMahon leads former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) by a healthy 17 points, 47% to 30%. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen: A new poll from McLaughlin & Associates finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Marco Rubio (R) neck-and-neck in the Florida Senate contest. With Jeff Greene (D) as the Democratic nominee, Crist and Rubio are tied at 37%, while Greene picks up 16%. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the Democratic nod, Crist narrowly leads Rubio 38% to 36%, while Meek gets 16%.

In other Florida Senate news, Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp (R), who was Crist's running mate in 2006, is backing Rubio for Senate over his boss. That's gotta hurt coming from your second-in-command. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), who narrowly lost the Senate Democratic nomination to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), is finally endorsing his formal rival. The more conservative Mongiardo briefly flirted with the idea of backing Rand Paul (R) right after he lost the bitter primary. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OH-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) by four points, 44% to 40%. Two weeks ago, Rasmussen found Portman up by six points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

FL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a pair of close races for Florida governor no matter who the Republican nominee is. If Rick Scott (R) wins the GOP nod, as is expected, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 35-31-16. With Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) as the GOP nominee, Sink leads 31-27-20.

MD-Gov: Sarah Palin endorsed energy executive Brian Murphy's (R) underdog bid for governor, passing over likely GOP nominee former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). But instead of wallowing, Ehrlich is trying to use this non-endorsement to his advantage, trying to boost his moderate credentials in this dark blue state. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-01: Only one vote now separates surgeon Dan Benishek (R) and state Sen. Jason Allen (R) from yesterday's GOP primary, with the ever so slight advantage going to Benishek according to the Michigan secretary of state's office. The recount is expected to take at least two weeks, but probably longer. And while Benishek and Allen worry about recount lawyers and fees, Democratic nominee Gary McDowell (D) will get quite the head start going into the general election. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-07: Pennsylvania Democrats helped gather enough signatures to get tea party activist and and "birther" Jim Schneller on the ballot in Pennsylvania's 7th district. His candidacy should siphon off votes from former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan (R)--the GOP nominee--on his right, thereby helping state Rep. Bryan Lentz (D) in a race where every vote counts. The question is: how much of a role did the Lentz campaign have in this? Expect Meehan's people to make some noise about this. Current rating: Toss-Up.

Daily Rundown: 8/2/10

FL-Sen: After trailing Jeff Greene (D) in the polls three weeks ahead of the Democratic primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wants some a firm statement of support from President Obama. Said a campaign source: "Meek was told he'd have a prominent role and he's expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid insists that both him and the president are behind him and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is holding a fundraiser for him. Still, it might be wise for President Obama to stay out of this one, because if Greene is the nominee, Gov. Charlie Crist (I) may look like the stronger bet. And if Obama endorsed Meek, it might hurt any chance of Crist caucusing with Senate Democrats if he's elected. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: Survey USA also put out a poll in Kentucky this weekend, and they found Rand Paul (R) leading Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by eight points, 51% to 43%. Most other recent polls have found a similar result. Current rating: Lean Republican.

MN-Gov: A new Star Tribune poll finds good news for Democrats in the open gubernatorial contest. If former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is the Democratic nominee, he leads state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I) by 10 points, 40-30-13. With state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) at the helm for the Democrats, she leads by nine points, 38-29-13. If former state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) wins the nomination, he leads by five points, 36-31-15. What's the reason for these consistent Democratic leads in a Republican year you might ask? The answer is independent Tom Horner, who is siphoning off significant Republican support from Tom Emmer (R). In the Democratic primary, Dayton leads Kelliher and Entenza 40-30-17. Meanwhile, Kelliher--who was endorsed by the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party--has been endorsed by the Star Tribune.

NV-Gov: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid (D) by 19 points, 50% to 31%. Earlier this month, Mason-Dixon found Sandoval up by 11 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Dan Onorato (D) by 11 points, 50% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Current rating: Likely Republican.

SC-Gov: Rasmussen's also out with a new poll of the South Carolina gubernatorial contest, and find state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) leading state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) by 14 points, 49% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-12: Lori Edwards (D) is out with an internal poll showing her benefiting from the Tea Party candidacy of Randy Wilkinson, who's taking votes away from Republican Dennis Ross. The poll finds Edwards leading Ross 35% to 32%, with Wilkinson at an impressive 20%. Keep in mind, though, that this is an internal poll--so take it with a grain of salt. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-11: Survey USA is out with a new poll that finds Rep. Heath Shuler (D) edging businessman Jeff Miller (R) by just one point, 45% to 44%. Our current rating of this race is Likely Democrat, but this poll may change that to something more competitive.

Daily Rundown: 7/30/10

FL-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) narrowly leading Marco Rubio (R) and blowing out both Democratic candidates. When Jeff Green (D) is the Democratic nominee, Crist leads 37-32-17. If Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the nomination then Crist leads 39-33-13. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) ahead by just one point over challenger Sharron Angle (R), 43% to 42%. Mason-Dixon's poll from two weeks ago had Reid up by seven points, but this new result seems more plausible. Still, that Reid is even leading at all continues to stun me, seeing as he was left for dead just two months ago. Current rating: Toss-Up.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%--virtually unchanged from their poll from two weeks ago. Most other public polls have found a much closer race. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: Rasmussen also put a poll out in Washington state, and found Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by two points, 49% to 47%. Two weeks ago, they found Rossi (R) to be ahead by three points. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

FL-Gov: That same Quinnipiac poll tested the Florida governor's race and found very close races--regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. If Rick Scott (R) is the GOP nominee, he leads state CFO Alex Sink (D) and Bud Chiles (I) 29-27-14. If state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) wins the GOP's nod, he leads Sink and Chiles 27-26-14. Also: President Obama will hold a fundraiser for Sink on August 18.

MI-Gov: The second half of the EPIC-MRA poll came out today, this time testing the waters for the gubernatorial GOP nomination. They found moderate former Gateway executive Rick Snyder (R) narrowly leading the pack with 26%, followed by state Attorney General Mike Cox (R) with 24% and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with 23%. Different polls show each one of these three in the lead, but the consensus is that this race will be extremely close. The primary is this Tuesday.

NV-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) leading Rory Reid by 10 points, 50% to 40%--down from a 21-point lead from earlier this month. This change is pretty inexplicable, with the only major development being that Sandoval said he wouldn't be worried about his children getting racially profiled in Arizona because they "don't look Hispanic." But that gaffe hardly explains an 11-point drop off over a two-week period. Current rating: Likely Republican.

WI-Gov: With Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) as the GOP nominee, Rasmussen finds that he leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) by seven points, 50% to 43%. If former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) wins the Republican nomination, he trails Barrett by one point.

LA-02: The DCCC has announced that it will officially support state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) in the Democratic primary to take on endangered freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R). The DCCC is placing Richmond, who came in third place in the 2008 Democratic primary, in its "Red to Blue" program--giving him a fundraising and infrastructure boost going into the August 28 primary. He still faces state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), businessman Gary Johnson (D), and Eugene Green (D)--a top aid to former Rep. Bill Jefferson (D), whose scandals allowed Cao to steal this dark blue seat in 2008.

NH-01: That UNH/Granite State poll that came out yesterday also tested both of the state's House contests. In the 1st district, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) leads former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) 44% to 39%, bests former RNC committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) 45% to 36%, and beats businessman Rick Ashooh (R) 43% to 35%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-02: In the open seated second district, things look a bit bleaker for the Democrats. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) leads Katrina Swett (D) 47% to 30% and tops Ann McLane Kuster (D) 47% to 29%. Conservative talk show host and 2008 GOP nominee Jennifer Horn (R) leads Swett 35% to 31% and edges Kuster 34% to 32%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

OK-05: State Rep. Mike Thompson (R), who finished third in Tuesday's primary, is endorsing Christian youth camp director James Lankford (R) in the August 24 GOP runoff. In doing so, he's passing over former state Rep. Kevin Calvey (R), who surprisingly finished behind Lankford in the Republican primary despite support from groups like the Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, and Concerned Women for America.

Daily Rundown: 7/29/10

CA-Sen: A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading Carly Fiorina (R) by five points, 39% to 34%. But they also find 22% of likely voters to be undecided, which is significantly higher than what most recent public polls have found. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Sen: A new Zata 3 poll in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (R) leading challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) by a slim four points in the Senate Democratic primary, 44% to 40%. Zata 3 is not usually known for polling, but more for direct mail and persuasion phone calls. Take that for what you will. Current rating: Toss-Up.

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who is only kind of still running for Senate, was endorsed by Connecticut's largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. It's unclear whether this will have any impact 13 days out from the primary, where Linda McMahon (R) is still the runaway favorite. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll confirming what we had all been guessing: the self-funding businessmen with no previous political experience are ahead in their respective primaries. In the Senate Democratic primary, Jeff Greene (D) has pulled ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 10 points, 33% to 23%--but it seems as though many Democrats have already hedged their bets on Gov. Charlie Crist (I), and more will do so if Greene becomes the Democratic nominee.

In the gubernatorial GOP primary, Rick Scott (R) leads state AG Bill McCollum (R) by 11 points, 43% to 32%. Said pollster Peter Brown: "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

MO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by six, 49% to 43%. Their poll from earlier this month found Blunt ahead by only two points. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: A set of polls from the University of New Hampshire finds Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 8 points, Bill Binnie (R) bests Hodes by two, Jim Bender (R) trailing him by three, and Hodes tops Ovide Lamontagne (R) by six. The only real news is that Ayotte's negatives have climbed since their last poll of this race. Current rating: Lean Republican.

OR-Sen: Two new polls out here, and both show that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is on his way to being re-elected. Rasmussen finds Wyden leading Jim Huffman (R) by 16 points and Survey USA finds Wyden up by 18. Both polls have Wyden up over the 50% mark. Current rating: Safe Democrat.

WA-Sen: Conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will endorse Dino Rossi (R) for Senate in Washington state. In doing this, he passes over Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier (R). Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds businessman Ron Johnson (R) leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by two points, 48% to 46%--virtually unchanged from their poll from earlier this month. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

AL-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that the Alabama gubernatorial election may not even be worth watching. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) leads state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) by 20 points, 55% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

CA-Gov: That PPIC poll I mentioned earlier also tested the state's open gubernatorial contest, and found Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by three points, 37% to 34%--but again they find a large percentage of the electorate (23%) undecided. Current rating: Toss-Up.

MI-Gov: A new EPIC-MRA poll finds Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) leading state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) by eight points in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, 40% to 32%. The pollsters have been split on this race, as about half have shown Dillon with a lead and half have shown Bernero ahead. Dillon is the more moderate candidate of the two and would probably be a stronger general election candidate (even though it's probably a lost cause for Democrats anyway), but Bernero has strong backing from organized labor. The primary is this Tuesday.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by two points, 46% to 44%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

AZ-03: Sen. John McCain (R) is backing former state Sen. Jim Waring (R) in the GOP primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). There are 10 Republicans vying for the nomination in this district, including attorney Ben Quayle (the son of the former vice president) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker. Current rating: Likely Republican.

KY-06: A new Braun Research poll finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leading attorney Andy Barr (R) 46% to 32%, with 21% still undecided. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/23/10

AR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. John Boozman (R) crushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by 25 points, 60% to 35%. Current rating: Likely Republican.

DE-Sen: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) will hold a fundraiser for Rep. Mike Castle (R) on August 17. Bloomberg has supported a wide array of candidates across the country--from both parties--including Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Current rating:

Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will endorse Marco Rubio (R) this weekend in a high-profile boost for the Republican's campaign, which has gotten a bit sleep as of late. This must come as a blow to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign, which has been aggressively courting the business community's support throughout the campaign. There's one little hitch though: Rubio, a Cuban American, opposes the Chamber of Commerce's push to get rid of the Cuba embargo. Current rating: Toss-Up.

IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune may have discovered yet another embarrassing embellishment from Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) past. Since he began running for public office over a decade ago, Kirk often told the story of how he was rescued by the Coast Guard when he nearly drowned at age 16. But the Tribune has found that "there are inconsistencies in Kirk's statements that suggests part of his real-life drama have been embellished." This must be terrible news for the Kirk campaign, which had just seemed to get the media and public's attention turned away from his past. In other news, Kirk released a statement this morning that he supports the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagen. Current rating: Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A new Braun Research poll finds Rand Paul (R) leading state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) by 3 points, 41% to 38%. Current rating: Lean Republican.

LA-Sen: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is out with an internal poll showing him trailing Sen. David Vitter (R) by just one point, 44% to 43%. This result seems very optimistic, as most recent public polling shows Vitter with a 10-20 point lead. Current rating: Likely Republican.

NC-Sen: It looks like internal polling season is in full swing. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is out with one showing her leading Sen. Richard Burr (R) by two points, 37% to 35%. Our public polling average has Burr up by 10 points over Marshall. Current rating: Lean Republican.

WV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Joe Manchin (D) crushing businessman John Raese (R) in a hypothetical general election match-up, 51% to 36%. While Raese is the most high-profile Republican to enter the race thus far, he will not have the field to himself. Nine other Republicans have already filed to run in the GOP primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) leading state Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) by 19 points, 56% to 37%. Also, Goddard called Brewer a "one-trick pony" today, saying that her only issue is illegal immigration. "The entire [platform] that she has run on is signing SB 1070," said Goddard. "When you ask what else has Governor Brewer done for you, I don't think there is an answer." Current rating: Likely Republican.

Daily Rundown: 7/22/10

AK-Sen: A new Ivan Moore Research poll of the Alaska GOP Senate primary finds Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) crushing challenger Joe Miller (R) 62% to 30%. Miller, of course, was endorsed by Sarah Palin last month and also has the backing of the Tea Party Express--but he hasn't shown the kind of fundraising or organizational prowess that he would need to take down an entrenched incumbent like Murkowski.

FL-Sen: A new PPP poll finds Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) leading billionaire Jeff Greene (D) by just 3 points in the Senate Democratic primary, 28% to 25%--but 37% of the Democratic electorate remains undecided. Rasmussen is out with some new general election numbers as well. When Meek is the Democrat in the race, Marco Rubio (R) leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I) 35% to 33%, with Meek back at 20%. With Greene in the race, Crist leads Rubio 36% to 34% and Greene takes 19%. Current rating: Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Mining owner company John Raese (R) announced that he'll be running for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) Senate seat this November. Raese, who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate against Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) in 1984 and again against Byrd in 2006, seemed to be the West Virginia GOP's next pick after Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) decided to sit this one out--probably because he can self-fund a large part of his campaign. State Sen. Clark Barnes (R) is also expected to get in the race and former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R) announced she won't run.

AR-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Mike Beebe (D) leading former state Sen. Jim Keet (R) by only 10 points, 50% to 40%. Their June poll of the race showed Beebe up by 24 points, and other public polling has shown mixed results. Beebe was thought be one of the few safe Democratic incumbents this cycle, given his sky-high approval ratings (even in this economy). We'll see if Keet has what it takes to give him a run for his money.

CO-Gov: Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) issued an ultimatum to the two current Republican gubernatorial candidates: get out of the race by Monday at noon or there'll be trouble. More specifically, he said he'll run for governor on the American Constitution Party line. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R)--the GOP frontrunner until it came to light that he had plagiarized several speeches weeks ago--has refused to drop out of the race. The same goes for businessman Dan Maes (R), who has been a weak candidate thus far and is viewed by both sides as unelectable in the general election.

Said Tancredo: "This is a disaster in the making ere. We have this opportunity and we're blowing it. The two candidates we have now are unelectable. One is essentially a fraud and another is experiencing all types of ethical problems. It's just ridiculous. This is unacceptable." He also added that if McInnis or Maes lead Hickenlooper in public polling the day after the primary (August 11), then he would drop out.

Democrats have to hope that Tancredo follows through on his threat, as he would split Republican votes with either McInnis or Maes and allow Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) to cruise to victory in the general election.

FL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Rick Scott (R) leading state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by 14 points in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary, 43% to 29%. The Election Frontier polling average has the self-funding Scott up by 10.7 points.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen is the first pollster after the primary to test general election match-ups in the Georgia gubernatorial race. Former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) bests former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) by 6 points, 49% to 43%. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) edges Barnes by only one point, 45% to 44%.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) crushing former Rep. Rick Lazio (R), 58% to 27%.

VA-09: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Rick Boucher (D) leading state House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R) by 13 points, 52% to 39%. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

Daily Rundown: 7/16/10

CT-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) by 17 points, 54% to 37%. And if former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) jumps back into the race like he has been hinting he will do, he still faces an uphill climb. McMahon leads him 52% to 25% in the GOP primary, with Peter Schiff (R)--who has started to gain support among local Tea Party activists--at 13%. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

DE-AL: A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Mike Castle (R) with a comfortable 11-point lead over Chris Coons (D), 47% to 36%. Their poll from late April had Castle up by 23 points. Current rating: Likely Republican.

FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) raised a record-setting $4.4 million last quarter, but that haul doesn't seem so might now that it came to light that his campaign spent $4 million over the same period. What makes matters worse is that he doesn't have a lot to show for it, seeing as Gov. Charlie Crist (I) is beating him in most public polling and now is sitting on more cash on hand. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Mason-Dixon poll finds some great news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). He leads Sharron Angle (R) by seven points, 44% to 37%, a four-point up-tick for Reid from their last poll in May. It seems that his campaign's strategy of making this race about Angle since she won the GOP primary has been working so far. But there's some good news for Angle today: she outraised Reid $2.6 million to $2.4 million in the second quarter (even though Reid has much more in cash on hand). Current rating: Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Dino Rossi (R) leading Sen. Patty Murray (D) for the first time since he entered the race. Their poll from last month found the race tied, whereas most other polls have shown Murray with a small lead. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) appointed his former chief counsel, Carte Goodwin (D), to be a seatwarmer until Manchin runs for the seat himself in November. Goodwin will be appointed on Tuesday and an official campaign announcement from Manchin should come soon after that. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

WI-Sen: A new poll from the University of Wisconsin finds Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading businessman Ron Johnson (R) 33% to 28%, but about 40% of voters are still undecided, meaning this race is up for grabs at this point. Current rating: Lean Democrat.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leading both potential Republican candidates within the margin of error. He leads former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) 45% to 43% and businessman Dan Maes (R) 46% to 43%. But the poll was taken before the full aftermath of McInnis multiple counts of plagiarism became public. A newer Survey USA poll (post-plagiarism) finds that 64% of state Republicans prefer someone other than McInnis as their gubernatorial nominee. Current rating: Toss-Up.

GA-Gov: Rasmussen tested the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Georgia and found former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) leading Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D) 59% to 16%. Most polls have found that Barnes has enough support to avoid a runoff, while the Republicans are certain to duke it out in a runoff for a few more weeks.

PA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Don Onorato (D) by 10 points, 48% to 38%--virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. Current rating: Likely Republican.

Daily Rundown: 7/13/10

CO-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds both GOP candidates, Ken Buck (R) and Jane Norton (R), with small leads over their potential Democratic rivals, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Andrew Romanoff (D). Buck leads Bennet by 9 points and bests Romanoff by 5. Norton leads Bennet by 7 points and tops Romanoff by 2. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

FL-Sen: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) leading Marco Rubio (R) and both potential Democratic candidates, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and billionaire Jeff Greene (D). When matched up against Meek, Crist leads the pack with 35%, while Rubio has 28% and Meek takes 17%. When matched up against Greene, Crist leads with 34% while Rubio takes 29% and Greene takes 18%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Rubio with a slight lead over Crist. Meanwhile, Rubio set a fundraising record for the 2010 cycle, bringing in $4.5 million last quarter. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sharron Angle (R) leading Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) by only three points. Their poll of the race from last month found Angle up by 7 points, and their poll from right after the GOP primary found her up by 11. The Election Frontier currently rates this as a Toss-Up.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will appoint an interim senator to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) on Friday by 5 PM.

FL-Gov: That same Reuters/Ipsos poll finds state CFO Alex Sink (D) leading Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) by one point. When matched up against self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R), she trails by three points.

GA-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) leading the pack for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Handel takes 32%, while state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) and Rep. Nathan Deal (R) are tied for second with 18%. Polls have been all over the place in this race, but this is the first poll with Handel in the lead--fresh off Sarah Palin's endorsement and some seeming gender-motivated momentum.

MD-Gov: A new PPP poll finds incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by three points, 45% to 42%.

PA-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett (D) leading Dan Onorato (D) by only seven points, 44% to 37%. The last two poll from this race have found Corbett up by 10 points, a comfortable lead but not out of striking distance, especially since Onorato has shown some fundraising prowess.

MN-06: A new Survey USA poll finds Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) leading state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) by nine points, 48% to 39%. The most striking cross-tab is the gender divide: Bachmann leads Clark by 25 points while Clark carries a majority of women. This is sure to be one of the most expensive races in the country, as the conservative firebrand Bachmann reported raising an astonishing $1.7 million in the second quarter and Clark also raised an impressive $910,000.

TN-09: President Obama endorsed Rep. Steve Cohen (D) in Tennessee's Memphis-based 9th district today. Cohen also received support from several members of the congressional black caucus. Cohen, who is white, is facing a primary challenge from former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton (D), who is black. Herenton's entire campaign message has been centered entirely (and unabashedly) around race.

Daily Rundown: 7/1/10

AZ-Sen: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is trying to get back on the offensive against Sen. John McCain (R) by releasing a four-minute video pointing out his ties to convicted Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein. Rothstein used to be a fundraiser for the senator, but the McCain campaign responded by saying: "John McCain couldn't pick him out of a lineup." The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Safe Republican.

FL-Sen: The St. Petersburg Times reports that a judge has scheduled an October trial for Jim Greer, the former state GOP chairman accused of corruption who was hand-picked by Gov. Charlie Crist (I). The trial starts two weeks before election day and could slow any momentum Crist has down the home stretch. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.

KY-Sen: A month after losing a close primary to Attorney General Jack Conway (D), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) is saying he won't endorse either candidate in the general election. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Republican.

PA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points, 45% to 39%, virtually unchanged from their poll from last month. The Election Frontier's polling average finds Toomey leading Sestak by one point, and we currently rate this race a Toss-Up.

WA-Sen: A new Survey USA poll confirms that it's going to be Sen. Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in November. Instead of party primaries, Washington state has an open "jungle" primary in which all candidates of all parties compete in the same primary and the top two finishers advance. In the survey, Murray gets 37% and Rossi gets 33%--way ahead of all the other candidates. The Election Frontier currently rates this race as: Lean Democrat.

AZ-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Jan Brewer (R) extending her lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. According the poll, Brewer leads Goddard by 18 points, 53% to 35%, a five-point improvement from their poll from last month. If this election continues to be a referendum on the Arizona immigration law, then Brewer should win pretty easily.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has picked a running mate in his comeback bid: former Secretary of State Mary Kane (R). The motive behind the pick seems to be that Ehrlich is looking to shore up his support in Montgomery County, where Kane lives. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is running with his lieutenant governor, Anthony Brown (D).

OH-Gov: It looks like former Rep. John Kasich (R) is making his first move to the center in the general election campaign. He now says he supports "a federal extension of unemployment benefits."

OR-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by one point, 41% to 40%. Even though Magellan is GOP pollster, these results seem pretty much in line with what other recent public polls have found.

WY-Gov: Not that this is actually important, but actor Wilford Brimley has decided to support state Auditor Rita Meyer (R) in the crowded GOP primary. But hey, what other news is coming out of Wyoming anyway, right?

RGA: The Republican Governor's Association hauled in just under $19 million in contributions in the second quarter and has $40 million in the bank. Under the leadership of Mississippi Gov. (and 2012 hopeful?) Haley Barbour, the RGA seems to be doing a lot better financially than their committee counterparts--the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) is facing allegations that "as a police sergeant nearly 20 years ago, he mishandled the investigation of a subordinate officer who had been accused of strip-searching two teenage girls." Perry, who has been endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Mitt Romney, faces a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Joe Malone (R), who is making hay of the issue.

Daily Rundown: 6/29/10

FL-Sen: The Naples News reports that two donors who gave to Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign back when he was a Republican are filing "a class-action lawsuit on behalf of all contributors who are demanding their money back after Crist announced he’d run as an Independent."

LA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) by 18 points, 53% to 35%. Two weeks ago, PPP found Vitter's lead to be in single digits but Magellan Strategies found Vitter up by 20 points.

WI-Sen: A new poll from PPP finds little-known businessman Ron Johnson (R) coming within two points of Sen. Russ Feingold (D). This confirms the results of an earlier Rasmussen survey which found Feingold up by only one. What's more troubling for Feingold is that 62% of Wisconsin voters don't know enough about Johnson to form an opinion of him. Pollster Tom Jensen notes: "A fresher face may be helpful for Republicans as they try to pull off the upset in this race." If Johnson turns out to be a solid candidate and introduces himself well to voters in the state, he could have a real shot at unseating Feingold.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is on the defensive for an ad he released three months ago, which touts his military service. The ad claims: “Robert Bentley put himself through medical school, served his country and healed troops wounded in Vietnam.” But much like Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), Bentley was a Vietnam-era veteran, not a Vietnam veteran. He served in a hospital on American soil. Meanwhile, Bentley is up with an internal poll showing him with a 19-point lead over former two-year college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R)--who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting--in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Yeah, right.

NY-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still has a very comfortable lead over his likely rival, former Rep. Rick Lazio (R). Cuomo leads Lazio 55% to 28%, and even does well among Republicans.

OH-Gov: A new Quinnipiac poll has some good news and bad news for Gov. Ted Strickland (D). The good news is that he leads his rival, former Rep. John Kasich (R), by five points. The bad news is that he doesn't even reach the 45% mark, and 52% of Ohioans don't know enough about Kasich to form an opinion of him, meaning his numbers have room to grow. Meanwhile, a new PPP poll finds Kasich leading Strickland 43% to 41%.

RI-Gov: The Rhode Island Democratic Party endorsed state Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) over Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Polls have shown Caprio to be a more formidable general election candidate than Lynch.

ID-01: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in another move that is sure to boost his conservative bona fides in one of the most conservative districts in the country. Minnick has previously been the only Democrat endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Meanwhile, his opponent, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), has been trying to get back on good terms with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), who he bad-mouthed by name in the GOP primary against NRCC favorite Vaughn Ward (R). Labrador still has not been added to the NRCC's "Young Guns" recruitment program. "I understand I cannot win without their help," Labrador said of the NRCC. "I need the entire party to be united behind me against a Democrat who can self-fund in the millions of dollars."

MI-03: The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has an astonishingly good track record for endorsements so far this cycle, is endorsing 29-year old state Rep. Justin Amash (R) in this open seat race. Amash, who is seen as the favorite among Tea Party activists, faces former Kent County Commission Chair Steve Heacock (R) in the GOP primary, who has been endorsed by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R) and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce.

RI-01: The Rhode Island Democratic Party officially endorsed Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) for the seat being vacated by Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D). The state party passed over its former chairman, Bill Lynch (D), and state Rep. David Segal (D)--who are also running in the primary.

WV-01: Here's some intra-party drama. Former Secretary of State Ken Hechler (D) is starting up a PAC against the state senator who ousted Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) in the Democratic primary called "Citizens Who Refuse to Vote for Mike Oliverio." Hechler and Oliverio have some bad blood from when they previously ran against each other in a primary for Secretary of State. Hechler said that he didn't care about hurting a fellow Democrat's chances at winning the general election because “Oliverio, through his record, has shown he is further to the right of most Republicans.”

Weekend Rundown: 6/27/10

FL-Sen: Here's some more evidence that Democrats are jumping on board with Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who many observers now see as the only viable candidate running against Marco Rubio (R). Bigtime Democratic fundraisers Jeff Lieser and Nancy Jacobson are jumping on board with Crist's campaign. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and self-funding businessman Jeff Greene (D) continue to duke it out in the Democratic primary.

KS-Sen: Sarah Palin has decided to endorse Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in his primary bid against Rep. Jerry Moran (R). Both Republicans have been trying to "out-conservative" each other, and both can boast endorsements from big-name Republicans. Tiahrt has the backing of Palin, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Mike J. Rogers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, Karl Rove, and John Ashcroft. Moran has the support of Sens. John McCain, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Tom Coburn. Moran has led in early polling, but many expect this race will be very close by the time the primary rolls around on August 3.

MO-Sen: President Obama will reportedly hold a fundraiser for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) on July 8. Carnahan ducked Obama's last visit to the state in March.

NC-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) leading Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%. This seems a bit more on-the-ball than a Rasmussen poll from earlier last week that found Burr up by only one point.

OR-Sen: A new poll conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading law professor Jim Huffman by 18 points, 50% to 32%. A recent Rasmussen poll found Wyden only up by 10 over the largely unknown Huffman, and failing to reach the 50% mark.

WA-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) and likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) tied at 47%. The last two polls of the race have shown Murray with small leads. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds Murray leading Clint Didier (R)--Sarah Palin's pick--by 8 points and businessman Paul Akers (R) by 10.

AL-Gov: State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) is up with a new ad pledging that he won't air any negative ads against former state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. Byrne has already been up with a few ads attacking Bentley on his legislative record. And there could be fuel for the fire: reports show that Bentley had (like Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal and Illinois's Mark Kirk) distorted his military service record.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was endorsed by the National Rifle Association last week, which must be a slap in the face to businessman Buz Mills (R), her primary opponent, who is on the NRA's board of directors and owns his own shooting range. But then again, recent polling shows that Brewer doesn't even need the help anyway.

IA-Gov: The effort to force former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) to pick his defeated primary rival, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R), at the state GOP nominating convention failed this weekend. State Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) will be on the ballot as Branstad's running mate in the fall. Vander Plaats, a favorite among conservatives, has still refused to endorse the more moderate Branstad. He has also not ruled out an independent bid, which would effectively split the Republican vote and allow incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) a chance to win.

MA-Gov: A new Boston Globe/UNH poll finds Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) 38% to 31%, while state Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) posts his worst performance in any poll so far with 9%. It looks like the GOP strategy to attack and discredit Cahill early to make this a two-way race between Patrick and Cahill seems to be working. The question is: where will all the Cahill voters go?

NV-Gov: Breaking from the Reid family tradition of going negative in the early stages of the campaign, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid is up with a positive ad to kick off his longshot campaign against former federal judge Brian Sandoval (R). The only thing that's missing from the ad is his last name, which has been tarnished by his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), in the state. The end of the ad just reads "Rory 2010". Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sandoval crushing Reid 55% to 33%.

OR-Gov: That same Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall poll finds former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) tied at 41%. Recent polls have found Dudley with a slight lead, but a race that is very much up for grabs.

KS-01: A new Survey USA poll finds moderate state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) leading the pack with 23% in this open seat GOP primary. Tracey Mann (R) is in second with 20%, while state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R)--who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth--takes 18%.

KS-04: Survey USA also tested the 4th district, and found former RNC committeeman Richard Pompeo (R) edging self-funding businessman Wink Hartman (R) 39% to 37% in the open seat's GOP primary. State Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) and businessman Jim Anderson (R) trail with 9% and 6%, respectively.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) dodged a challenge from former congressional staffer Wendell Fant, who was recruited by organized labor to run as an independent to Kissell's left after the congressman voted against health care reform and the recent jobs bill. This definitely brightens Kissell's general election prospects against former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R).

Daily Rundown: 6/23/10

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain's (R) campaign is up with a new ad attacking former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) for promising people free government grants in an infomercial for National Grants Conferences. Here's an excerpt: "Twenty-four attorneys general condemned this company for promising people free government money, then ripping them off. ... J.D. Hayworth: pork-barrel spender, lobbyist, huckster."

CT-Sen: Martha Hart, the widow of the late wrestler Owen Hart, is suing the WWE and Linda McMahon (R), its former CEO and likely Senate GOP nominee. Hart "alleges that the WWE has used her late husband's name, image and celebrity profile without her consent and in violation of his contract with the company." This is yet another example of McMahon's baggage that could, at the very least, be an embarrassing distraction from her uphill battle against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D).

FL-Sen: Democratic primary rivals Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and billionaire businessman Jeff Greene (D) squared off in a debate for the first time, and it wasn't pretty. Both candidates lobbed harsh, personal attacks at each other rather than talking about the issues. Meek attacked Greene for getting rich off of betting on the collapse of the housing market using credit default swaps, to which Greene responded that Meek probably didn't even know what those were. And Greene accused Meek of securing a consulting job for his mother--former Rep. Carrie Meek (D)--through a developer that now faces criminal charges. The winner in all of this is Gov. Charlie Crist (I), who looks like the only grown-up in this race and continues to siphon off Democratic votes.

OR-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Ron Wyden (D) leading by a smaller-than-expected margin over GOP nominee Jim Huffman (R), 47% to 37%. These results are similar to a Survey USA poll released two weeks ago showing Wyden up by 13 points, 51% to 38%. Election Frontier's rating of this race remains "Safe Democrat", but the race is worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile, Wyden's camp is out with an internal poll showing him up 53-23 over Huffman.

AL-Gov: Former Rep. Sonny Callahan, the campaign manager for Tim James's unsuccessful gubernatorial primary campaign, will endorse state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) in the GOP runoff. This is the closest thing to an endorsement from James himself, who came just short of qualifying for the runoff. This gives Bentley's campaign a much-needed boost, as he is still the underdog against state college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R), who finished ahead of Bentley in the first round of voting.

MA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading his two rivals in his reelection bid. Patrick leads with 41%, followed by Charlie Baker (R) with 34%. State Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) trails with 16%. Rasmussen's poll from last month found Patrick up by 14 points.

NM-Gov: A new Magellan Strategies poll finds Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez (R) leading Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) 44% to 43%. Even though Magellan is a GOP pollster, it finds a slightly closer race than Rasmussen and Survey USA have found.

OH-Gov: An aide to former Rep. John Kasich's (R) gubernatorial campaign is in big trouble for mocking Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) humble upbringing. Said the aide: “Not until Ted Strickland feared needing their votes did he give urban Ohioans a second thought. Having grown up in a chicken shack on Duck Run, he has all but ignored our cities’ economies and their workers.” This was quite the boneheaded move, as it makes Kasich seem shallow and alienates the same rural and Appalachian voters that he needs to win in November. The aide has since apologized, but added that he didn't mean it as an insult. Strickland's campaign responded: "Only the congressman from Wall Street would be so out of touch as to insult Ted's humble upbringing." Reports show that the Strickland campaign intends to keep this story alive.

PA-Gov: A new PPP poll shows Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) by 10 points, 45% to 35%. A Rasmussen poll from earlier this month found Corbett up by 16.

Daily Rundown: 6/21/10

CO-Sen: A new Survey USA poll finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) leading in their respective primaries. Bennet leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) 53% to 36% in the Democratic primary. Buck, an insurgent who is drawing support from the Tea Party movement, leads establishment favorite former Lt. Gov. Norton (R) 53% to 37% in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Buck leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 9 points. Norton leads Bennet by 3 points and Romanoff by 4.

CT-Sen: Investor Peter Schiff (R) collected enough signatures to get on the Republican primary ballot against former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP. Schiff, who was an economic advisor to Rep. Ron Paul's (R) 2008 presidential campaign, didn't get the support of the necessary 15% of delegates at the state GOP convention, which forced him to collect 8,268 signatures to qualify as an official Republican candidate. Schiff has strong libertarian leanings and will be the extreme underdog in the race against McMahon.

FL-Sen: A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Gov. Charlie Crist (I) expanding his lead over Marco Rubio (R). While most previous polls have shown Crist with a small single-digit lead (if any at all), this one has him up by 11 points. Crist leads with 42%, while Rubio picks up 31% and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) receives 14% of the vote.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) is hitting back against Sen. Harry Reid's (D) volley of attacks with a new web ad called "Crickets." It charges Reid's attack ads as nothing more than distractions from his own unpopular record as senator and majority leader. It's worth a look.

UT-Sen: A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll released Saturday finds businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) with a narrow lead over attorney Mike Lee (R) in the GOP primary to replace Sen. Bob Bennett (R). Bridgewater, who has been endorsed by Bennett, leads Lee 42% to 33%. But that lead might not mean anything, seeing as 25% of GOP voters are still undecided. Voters go to the polls Tuesday, and most political observers are expecting this race to be very close.

AL-Gov: The results of the recount are in: businessman Tim James (R), who personally paid the $200,000 for the recount, actually lost by more than 200 votes to state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), instead of the 167 vote deficit he had on election night. Bentley has now officially earned a spot in the GOP runoff against Bradley Byrne (R).

CO-Gov: That same Survey USA poll also took a look at the state's open gubernatorial contest. In the GOP primary, they found former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leading Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) 57% to 29%. In general election match-ups, the poll found McInnis leading Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47% to 43%--while Maes led Hickenlooper 45% to 44%.

FL-Gov: That same Chamber of Commerce poll confirms what other recent polling has found: self-funding former health care executive Rick Scott (R) has jumped into the lead ahead of Attorney General Bill McCollum (R), 35% to 30%. McCollum, who has a reputation of being a lackluster candidate from a couple of previous statewide campaigns, needs to pick up the pace and find a coherent message while Scott floods the airwaves with ads.

SC-Gov: Politico reports that Mitt Romney has donated $42,000 to state Rep. Nikki Haley's (R) gubernatorial campaign. PACs are only allowed to donate $3,500 to a candidate per cycle, but Romney found a way around it: "With one federal PAC and five statewide PACs each maxing out at $3,500 for Haley in both the GOP primary and general elections, Romney has contributed a total of $42,000." Apparently, Romney really wants Haley to take the governor's mansion so he can cash in a few favors with her in the all-important South Carolina primary in 2012--especially since Haley and Palin appear to be very buddy-buddy these days.

NY-23: Here's some rare bad news for Republicans. The state Independence Party just endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R) for their ballot line. Meanwhile, the state Conservative Party has endorsed Doug Hoffman (R), who lost the special election in this district in 2009. Both Doheny and Hoffman are also running for the GOP nomination, so this means that whoever loses the GOP nomination could run on a third-party ballot line--effectively splitting the Republican vote and allowing freshman Rep. Bill Owens (D) a relatively easy path to reelection.

ND-AL: A new Rasmussen poll shows state Rep. Rick Berg (R) leading Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 51% to 44% in the state's at-large congressional district. Their poll from last month showed Berg with a similar 9-point lead.

PA-03: The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List is targeting freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over her vote for the "pro-abortion" health care reform bill, even though Dahlkemper claims to be pro-life. They have pledged to throw $300,000 into the race to attack Dahlkemper and support her GOP rival, businessman Mike Kelly (R).

SC-01: Sarah Palin joined the House GOP leadership in endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott (R) ahead of his runoff against Charleston City Councilman Paul Thurmond (R), the son of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond. This is presumably because they want to have at least one African American in their caucus.

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) leads retired teacher and activist Claudia Wright (D) 52% to 33% in the Democratic primary, according the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll mentioned above. This lead seems a bit small, seeing as he's outspending Wright 42-to-1 ahead of Tuesday's primary.

Daily Rundown: 6/18/10

FL-Sen: Billionaire Jeff Greene (D) is up with an attack ad against primary rival Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) calling for an ethics investigation of Meek's ties to an indicted real estate developer...in the Washington, D.C. market. It looks like he's trying to persuade members of the House Ethics and Oversight Committee to take up the case (an extreme longshot), but wouldn't it have been a smarter move to air it in the state where all the voters are? But then again, he can probably afford both.

In other news, Marco Rubio (R) is facing foreclosure on a home in Tallahassee that he owns with state Rep. David Rivera (R), who is running for Congress in Florida's 25th district. Rubio's campaign said the issue has been resolved in court.

SC-Sen: The South Carolina Democratic Party rejected Vic Rawl's challenge to the results of the Democratic primary, finding no evidence of foulplay or malfunction. This means that Alvin Greene (D) will carry the Democratic torch against Sen. Jim DeMint (R) in the general election. Good luck with that.

MN-Gov: A new Survey USA poll shows likely GOP nominee state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) in a tight race with any of the top three Democrats running. Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) leads Emmer 38% to 35%, while Emmer edges state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) 35% to 33% and tops state Rep. Matt Entenza (D) 37% to 33%. In the Democratic primary, Dayton holds a 13-point lead over Kelliher, 39% to 26%, with Entenza trailing at 22%.

OK-Gov: A new Sooner poll finds Rep. Mary Fallin (R) in a strong position to take back the governor's mansion for the GOP this fall. She leads Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) 49% to 36%, and leads Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) 50% to 35%. The Democratic primary is about tied with Edmondson edging Askins, 37% to 36%.

TX-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) only slightly ahead of his Democratic rival, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D). Perry leads White 48% to 40%. Their previous poll of the race, from last month, showed Perry with a 13-point lead.

Daily Rundown: 6/16/10

FL-Sen: Politico reports that Florida Democratic leaders are beginning to entertain the possibility of backing Gov. Charlie Crist's independent Senate campaign in the general election (or at least sitting on the sidelines) if billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who apparently has a ton of baggage, wins the Democratic nomination. Crist, who was left for dead when he was a Republican running against Marco Rubio (R) in the GOP primary, has been actively courting Democrats and independents by darting to the left in recent weeks and might end up as the de facto Democratic nominee. What a turn-around.

NC-Sen: Progressive group MoveOn.org has endorsed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) over state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) ahead of the June 22 runoff. Cunningham is the favored candidate of the DSCC, which has donated almost $80,000 to his campaign.

WA-Sen: A new Elway poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading likely GOP nominee Dino Rossi (R) 47% to 40%. Murray also leads Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (R) 46% to 32% and bests businessman Paul Akers (R) 47% to 33%. Meanwhile, Didier made a trip to Washington to meet with RNC and NRSC officials, who were responsible for recruiting Rossi to begin with.

CO-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds a dead heat in the Colorado gubernatorial contest. Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) leads Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 46% to 41%. They found Kasich with a similar lead in their poll from last month. Meanwhile, Tea Party favorite Dan Maes (R) is tied with Hickenlooper at 41%.

IL-Gov: A new PPP poll finds state Sen. Bill Brady (R) with a slight edge over Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Brady leads Quinn 34% to 30%, with a large number of undecided voters. A Rasmussen poll from last week found Brady with an 11-point lead.

IA-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) with a huge 26-point lead over sitting Gov. Chet Culver (D), 57% to 31%.

MI-Gov: A new survey from Magellan Strategies of the Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary finds Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) with a small lead over his rivals. Hoekstra leads with 26%, Rick Snyder takes 20%, Mike Cox takes 16%, and Mike Bouchard trails with 11%.

CT-04: Easton Selectman Tom Herrmann (R) is dropping out of the GOP primary in this district because of falsified names on his petition. That leaves businessmen Rob Merkle (R) and Rick Torres (R) as well as state Sen. Dan Debicella (R), who has been endorsed by the state GOP, in the primary to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D) in the general election.

NH-01: Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (R) endorsed former RNC Committeeman Sean Mahoney (R) in the 1st district GOP primary over his predecessor, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R). This endorsement is really just symbolic, but it probably stings Guinta--who was recruited by the NRCC to run against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)--just the same.

NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller (R) is out with an internal poll showing him running only 12 points behind Rep. Heath Shuler (D), 46% to 34%. Shuler's $1,293,000 in cash-on-hand dwarfs Miller's $26,000 as of the end of the first quarter. But Miller's cash-strapped campaign may get a fundraising boost from the conservative organization Freedom Works, who has just endorsed his campaign.

OH-12: EMILY's List announced that they will endorse Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks (D) in her uphill battle to unseat Rep. Pat Tiberi (R). Brooks has already been endorsed by NARAL, another pro-abortion rights organization, and is a member of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" candidate recruitment program. Meanwhile, Tiberi was announced yesterday to be one of only nine Republican incumbents that the NRCC will continue to fundraise for. Might this be a rare opportunity for Democrats to play offense?

Daily Rundown: 6/11/10

CA-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the California Senate race, from Rasmussen, shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five-point lead over former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, 48% to 43%. In other news, Fiorina was caught on open-mic Thursday criticizing Meg Whitman's decision to go on Sean Hannity and making fun of Boxer's hair.

FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist, running for the Senate as an independent, continues to run to the left in an attempt reach out to Democratic voters. AP reports: "Gov. Charlie Crist has vetoed a bill that would have required women seeking an abortion during the first trimester to undergo an ultrasound exam and pay for it. Crist said Friday it put an inappropriate burden on women seeking an abortion." This is quiet a shocker from Crist, who is pro-life.

NV-Sen: GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R) is hiring the Indiana-based Prosper Group, which raised $12 million for Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) successful campaign, to help with her website and online fundraising. Angle, who ran a haphazard and disorganized primary campaign (at least financially), is going to need all the financial support she can get running against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who already has more than $9 million in the bank and hopes to raise a record-shattering $25 million to defend his seat.

NH-Sen: Rep. Paul Hodes' (D) campaign is up with a new ad attacking GOP candidate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) for her neglect of the cover-up by Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of running a Ponzi scheme. FRM was allowed to continue in operation while the AG's office (under Ayotte) was supposed to be regulating it. Ayotte is being called on to testify on the matter before a state senate committee.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett (R), who was ousted in last month's state GOP nominating convention, is endorsing businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) over attorney Mike Lee (R) to succeed him in the Senate. The primary is on June 22.

WA-Sen: A new survey from The Washington Poll was released today, showing Sen. Patty Murray (D) edging Dino Rossi (R) 42% to 40%. Their previous polls, for the most part, have also shown Murray with a lead within the margin of error.

CA-Gov: Yikes. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown (D) compared his GOP opponent, Meg Whitman (R), to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joesph Goebbels while jogging yesterday. Citing Meg Whitman's massive self-funding capacity, he said: "You know, by the time she's done with me, two months from now, I'll be a child-molesting ..She'll have people believing whatever she wants about me." He added: "It's like Goebbels. ... Goebbels invented this kind of propaganda. He took control of the whole world. She wants to be president. That's her ambition, the first woman president. That's what this is all about." Not the best way to start out your campaign there, Jerry.

ME-Gov: Rasmussen was also the first to poll this quiet race after its June 8 primary, and found GOP nominee Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) with a slight lead. LePage, whose candidacy was fueled by the local Tea Party movement, takes 43%, while Democratic nominee state Senate President Libby Mitchell picks up 36%. Attorney Eliot Cutler, a Democrat-turned-independent, trails with 7%. LePage is so conservative and Mitchell is so liberal that there might be enough room in the middle to make the centrist Cutler a viable candidate once he introduces himself to Maine voters.

MD-Gov: Rasmussen also took a look at the Maryland gubernatorial contest, where former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is trying to take back the statehouse he lost to former Baltimore Mayor and sitting Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in 2006. The poll finds O'Malley and Ehrlich tied at 45%. Their previous poll of the race, from April, had O'Malley up by 3 points, and other surveys of the race have shown O'Malley with a slightly larger lead.

OR-Gov: A new Survey USA poll finds former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 40% in the Oregon's open gubernatorial race. A Rasmussen poll from May showed Dudley with just a one-point lead. Survey USA also took a look at the Senate race where, as expected, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over his GOP opponent, Jim Huffman (R).

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), who finished a disappointing fourth in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary, is snubbing frontrunner Nikki Haley (R) and endorsing her runoff opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R).

AL-02: The Alabama Tea Party Express is formally backing businessman Rick Barber (R) in the district's GOP runoff over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), the establishment favorite and overwhelming frontrunner.

NJ-06: Establishment-backed businesswoman Diane Gooch (R) is requesting a recount after finishing just 78 votes behind Tea Party favorite Highlands Mayor Anna Little (R) in the district's GOP primary. Little has declared victory and looks to pivot to the general election where she'll have her hands full with entrenched 11-term incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone (D).

NC-08: Republican leaders are no longer trying to keep their support of former sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) quiet for the June 22 runoff against businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R). Among the GOP leadership to donate money to Johnson's campaign: House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, NRCC chair Pete Sessions, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy--the House recruitment chair for the NRCC.

VA-05: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), the runner-up in the district's GOP primary, has not said that he will endorse GOP nominee state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) for the general election. Instead, McKelvey is forming a PAC to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."

The Lynchburg Tea Party has also refused to endorse Hurt, who is disliked by conservatives from his time in the state senate. To make matters worse, Hurt might be outflanked on his right by a third-party candidacy from businessman Jeffrey Clark. The DCCC is pouncing on the opportunity by "throwing gasoline on the internal GOP strife in the district." This is the kind of thing that Republicans need to avoid if they want to take back the House.