Daily Rundown: 7/28/10

CT-Sen: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) came out and officially said it at a debate last night: "I am running for the United State Senate." This comes after weeks of playing coy and calling his campaign ads "public service announcements"--a reminder that his name was still on the ballot. Simmons suspended his campaign after the state GOP endorsed Linda McMahon (R). Both Simmons and investor Peter Schiff (R) remain huge underdogs with less than two weeks before the primary. Current rating: Likely Democrat.

IL-Sen: A new Rasmussen poll finds state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by two points, 43% to 41%--within the poll's margin of error. This is virtually unchanged from the results of a poll they released of this race earlier this month. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NV-Sen: Rasmussen is also out with a new poll in this closely watched (and over-dramatized) race. They find Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) leading Sharron Angle (R) by two points, 45% to 43%. Rasmussen's previous poll of the race, from June, found Angle up by three points. It seems like Reid' barrage of negative campaign ads to define Angle as too outside the mainstream may have worked to drive up Angle's negatives to levels comparable to his. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Sen: PPP is out with part two of their poll, this time with Republican primary numbers. It seems that while Sarah Palin's endorsement hurt Kelly Ayotte (R) among moderates--which could be a problem for her in the general election--it hasn't had any negative effect on Republican voters. Ayotte has the support of 47% of likely GOP voters while her closest competitor, Bill Binnie (R), is way behind with 14%. Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Jim Bender (R) are stuck in single digits. Current rating: Lean Republican.

CA-Gov: A new PPP poll finds Jerry Brown (D) leading Meg Whitman (R) by six points, 46% to 40%. This must come as good news to the Brown campaign, as the last two public polls of the race have shown Whitman, albeit with small single digit margins. Current rating: Toss-Up.

NH-Gov: PPP also put a GOP gubernatorial primary poll into the field, and found former Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen (R) leading the pack with 26%. Businessman Jack Kimball (R) trails with 15% and Karen Testerman (R) collects only 5%. But there's still a whole lot of undecided voters, as this race has taken a backseat to the more competitive and interesting Senate Republican primary.

OK-Gov: As expected, Rep. Mary Fallin (R) easily disposed of state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) in yesterday's GOP gubernatorial primary, 55% to 39%, and avoided a runoff. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) edged out state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) by less than one percentage point. The Sooner poll released this weekend wasn't even close. Now, regardless of who wins in the general election, Oklahoma will have its first female governor.

TN-Gov: Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R), who's been lagging in the polls, is under fire for calling Islam a "cult" instead of a religion. He said he's "all about freedom of religion" but added "but you cross the line when they start trying to bring Sharia law into the United States." Yikes.

OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren (D) easily fought off a health care-themed primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Wilson (D), crushing him 76% to 24%.

OK-05: The Republican primary to replace Rep. Mary Fallin (R) in Congress is headed to a runoff, as expected, featuring Christian camp director James Lankford (R) and former state Rep. Ken Calvey (R). This is basically the general election, as the winner of this runoff will go on cruise in November in this dark red district.